Seems like this industry has huge growth potential over the next 10 years, and now would be the time to invest.

I like Sirius, and wanted to invest there...but since XM got a $55 Million deal with Oprah recently it kinda makes Stern's $500 Million deal seem like a bad omen for Sirius.

What do you guys think? Do you own either of these stocks? Links to industry analysis or analyst comments would be helpful.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/srwcompare.asp?company2=XMSR&company3=&Symbol=SIRI&DoCompanyLookup=

[Edited on February 9, 2006 at 11:52 AM. Reason : ]

2/9/2006 11:50:21 AM

I know next to nothing about stocks, but am a Sirius subscriber.

I've heard some things the last few weeks that would make me wary about investing in them, unless I was prepared to experience some serious fluctuations. Two major ones stick out:

1) Stern and co. are trying to put a positive spin on all of these reports about people not being likely to subscribe to satellite radio.
2) Even if the FCC/govt. in general don't eventually censor satellite, the topic is going to come up and be debated, leading to some real uncertainty.

2/9/2006 12:20:28 PM

as a listener, I love XM
maybe call in and ask that crazy guy on MSNBC what he thinks?

2/9/2006 12:27:11 PM

^Jim Cramer on "Mad Money" on CNBC?

2/9/2006 12:30:04 PM

Quote :

"1) Stern and co. are trying to put a positive spin on all of these reports about people not being likely to subscribe to satellite radio."

I don't see how this impacts the entire satellite radio industry

Quote :

"2) Even if the FCC/govt. in general don't eventually censor satellite, the topic is going to come up and be debated, leading to some real uncertainty."

and I'm not sure censorship in the far off future would really affect subscriber growth that much.

Quote :

"maybe call in and ask that crazy guy on MSNBC what he thinks?"

pretty sure cramer likes XM



http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/stocks/media/10267002.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/media/10260320.html
http://newyorkbusiness.com/news.cms?id=12933
http://www.masshightech.com/displayarticledetail.asp?Art_ID=70992
http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/Opinion/Columnists/Brown_Dan/2006/02/09/1433720.html

2/9/2006 12:51:54 PM

I'm not gonna take the time to find sources, but it is quite possible that sometime down the road Sirius and XM will merge at some point. If that happens it won't matter which one you started out with, and both are healthy enough that a merger is probably a lot more likely then one of the companies going under.

2/9/2006 6:00:23 PM

XM in general has better hardware/equipment then Sirius. If I had to go with one I'd go XM since I'm a subscriber already.

The market in satellite radio stocks is too risky right now for me. It fluctuates too often.

2/9/2006 8:22:25 PM

XM has all acc sports. That alone is a deal maker.

2/9/2006 8:23:32 PM

^Yeah that and XM caries MLB, thats enough for me.

2/9/2006 8:46:28 PM

well i have had sirius for over a year and love it. basically you just have to pick which things you like better. each offers something unique that the other doesnt have. like someone else said, i doubt either is going under any time soon.

[Edited on February 9, 2006 at 9:03 PM. Reason : more commercial free channels on sirius though, if im not mistaken. it's great.]

2/9/2006 9:01:54 PM

I don't think XM and Sirius can merge, because that would create a monopoly.

2/9/2006 9:18:22 PM

^he's talking about investing in the stock market. not actually getting satellite radio.


And i have investments in Sirius as we speak and it's been pretty steady. It has risen a good deal since the beginning investment so i'm happy

2/9/2006 9:18:46 PM

i'm waiting for the Sirius stock to go down to about 5 bucks/share to buy.

2/9/2006 9:21:19 PM

i bought sirius a year ago at a shade over 7, it hasnt done shit but go up a little, and down more over the past year. I am hoping over the long haul it will pay off.

2/9/2006 9:28:40 PM

I don't really trust the bottom line of a company that pays one single employee a half a billion dollar contract + plus substantial performance bonuses + significant stock incentives.

That on top of the fact that they are not even close to recovering the substantial capital costs of establishing the necessary infrastructure and are being canabalized by podcasts and pirates who don't want to pay for what they have been used to getting for free.

2/9/2006 9:38:17 PM

yea, I wouldn't want to invest Sirius over the long term either. Just looking for some quick money.

2/9/2006 9:42:13 PM

Sirius

2/9/2006 9:44:14 PM

XM

2/9/2006 10:22:12 PM

i really like XM and as someone said before all the ACC games are covered that is a selling point for me

2/9/2006 10:30:26 PM

Ok, I'm gonna shorten this. I had made this huge comparison post, but my son came in here while I was in the shitter and played on the keyboard and fucking closed my browser.

Talking about if anybody had suggested them. Prof. Huggard in EC 205? suggested them as a big company to watch grow in the coming years back in 01 when I took his class. He said he had a lot of stock in them and was sure they were on the move up. Since then I've talked to several folks who also said they had made quite a bit of money on XM stock.

Basically a few points on what ya'll are talking about.

Merger Quite simply the FTC won't allow it at this time. It would be a monopoly. Now maybe in a few years if Sirius depletes its cash reserves and goes into Chapter 11 or something, we might see this happen. Until then, don't bet on it, though ultimately I don't think I'd mind if they did merge. Then I'd get ALL the sports and all the talk shows and shit like that. But only time will tell.

Censorshp The FCC is gunning at Sirius because it has no way to block Explicit Language. XM is clear of this because you can call them and have the Explicit Language channels blocked out. Hence Sirius can get around the FCC stuff, if they can just figure out how to block out channels with "adult" content so the kiddies playing in the car on the way to school in the morning with mom don't accidentally tune it to Howard and catch some slut having an orgasm or some shit like that.

Subscribers XM has 6+ million, Sirius 3 million. They both had very good years last year and XM still signed up more people, but the percentage of growth was on Sirius's side. They did drop half a billion on Stern, so you'd think they would have some growth from all the pushing he did of them on his terrestrial radio show and his die hard fans buying up Sirius units. Expect those big numbers to cool in Q1 this year though, and apparently the #s for January are already starting to bear that out, though obviously some was also just the fact that the holiday season is over. All in all though, XM has had the proven track record of sustain growth.

Price Pricewise, they are the exact same. 12.95/month for the first unit and then $6.99/month for each add'l up to 4, I think. Both include internet access of their radio stations for free with your plan. One advantage XM is about to announce is that they will soon have the XM Passport available that will connect to any XM unit and allow you to transfer your XM subscription between units. This is great for people like myself who have a Roady2 for my pickup truck and car, but also have a really nice direct connected XM unit in my Camaro that I rarely drive and therefore don't feel like paying for an additional subscription for. This way I can use multiple units on the same subscription and only pay for one. I'm very impressed by this and will very likely adopt this pretty early.

Car Manufacturer Deals Sirius has DaimlerChrysler on board, as well as BMW, and Ford. XM has General Motors as well as Honda, Toyota, Nissan, VW, Porsche, Freightliner, and Harley-Davidson. In this category I'd say XM has a better lock on things, with GM representing Detroit and then the major foreign autmotive makers.

Exclusives XM has: Opie and Anthony/Ron & Fez, MLB, NHL (will go XM exclusive next year) NASCAR, ACC/PAC 10/Big Ten conferences, PGA, IndyCar, World Cup Soccer, Fox News, Ellen Degeneres, Oprah & Friends.
Sirius has: Howard Stern, NFL, NBA, NCAA March Madness, and the conferences like Atlantic 10, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, Sunbelt, Southern, WCC, and WAC.

Content XM has 67 music channels that are commerical free and over 160 digital channels in total. Sirius has 64 music channels sans commercials and in total 120 channels of content. Sirius has 11 traffic channels to cover 20 cities (meaning most are shared like San Fran & Seattle on one station) while XM has 20 seperate channels that cover 20 cities. XM also has live weather radars and other content that can be purchased (and uses seperate units) for trucks/public service, boaters, and pilots who want real-time updates on weather conditions all across the country, graphically. They also have NavTraffic which will actually show you where traffic is slowing down on a map and give you live updates on where wrecks are occurring, traffic flow, etc. all live and visually. In this respect I really see XM pulling ahead as they are diversifying their offerings to maximize the uses of their satellites.

Technology This is one area where XM has been ahead of Sirius, and next month that gap will widen. Both have their standard in car units, but where the battle is raging is in the portable units. Sirius claims to have a portable unit, the S50, but what kinda gets glossed over is the fact that its only live satellite radio when its docked. On the go you can only listen to recorded music, and you can only record up to 2 hours of content at a time. So basically you can't set it to run for all of Stern's morning show and listen to it on the way home from work that night, you'll only get the first 2 hours. XM has had portable units like the MyFi since last summer and in March will be releasing the Helix and Inno, which are basically iPod size units that can play satellite radio portably or when docked, and also have a gig of storage space where you can download radio content or mp3s and play what you want. I am probably gonna drop for one of these so that I can listen while I exercise, mow the yard, and will also give me an mp3 player that I can put a couple hundred songs on pretty easily, elminiating the need for a seperate mp3 player. This is one area that Sirius is gonna have to play catchup because they haven't got the capital at this time to invest in this kind of technology. With the mp3 players being all the rage, I think this is somewhere that XM may very well step it up and increase their subscribers quite a bit into the areas that were previously neglected, mainly people who don't necessarily commute to work or have a car.

Conclusions Sorry this shit is long and drawn out, but I wanted to put together more than just XM IS TEH SHIT or SIRIUS IS BETTAR. I did quite a bit of research to compare the two. As I said, stock prices are quite a bit higher for XM and apparently they have been the company with the most buzz. If you are looking for a company to invest in for the long haul, I'd say XM is the better buy. Sirius is trying very hard to catch up, but they are hemorrhaging cash at the moment and have not really justified their expenses. Sure Stern was a big pull, maybe a 50-100 million dollar pull, but NOT a half a billion dollar pull. They could have instead wrapped up so many other exclusive deals with companies, sports, and spent more on R&D to narrow the tech gap between the companies, but as of right now, they can't afford those things. Maybe I'm biased as a user of XM and having heard them recommended by several pretty market savvy individuals over the last 5 years, but it seems to bare itself out in the numbers. Hope this shit didn't ramble along TOO fucking much. I'm sure it did.

[Edited on February 9, 2006 at 10:51 PM. Reason : Grammar ninja]

2/9/2006 10:47:44 PM

^exactly my point, XM long-term, Sirius short-term.

2/9/2006 11:56:32 PM

Am, Fm, Xm.... I like the comfort of that "m" being there

I've seriously considered getting XM, but I'm waiting til I move for grad school and seeing what the radio options are before deciding.

2/9/2006 11:58:25 PM

Quote :

"Car Manufacturer Deals Sirius has DaimlerChrysler on board, as well as BMW, and Ford. XM has General Motors as well as Honda, Toyota, Nissan, VW, Porsche, Freightliner, and Harley-Davidson. In this category I'd say XM has a better lock on things, with GM representing Detroit and then the major foreign autmotive makers."

Sirius also installs OEM in Mazda, Infiniti, Land Rover, Lincoln, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Porsche, VW, Volvo, and (recently) Suburu among others. You'll notice it always isn't an exclusive arrangement with the automakers...Its not like XM HAS Nissan, Nissan and many others use both.

Quote :

"Exclusives XM has: Opie and Anthony/Ron & Fez, MLB, NHL (will go XM exclusive next year) NASCAR, ACC/PAC 10/Big Ten conferences, PGA, IndyCar, World Cup Soccer, Fox News, Ellen Degeneres, Oprah & Friends. Sirius has: Howard Stern, NFL, NBA, NCAA March Madness, and the conferences like Atlantic 10, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, Sunbelt, Southern, WCC, and WAC. "

Sirius also has Martha Stewart, NASCAR (in 2007), Public Radio (NPR, C-Span, PRI). Also has SEC, Pac 10, Big Ten, Big 12, and Big East content

As for financials, this page has a nice comparison:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/srwcompare.asp?company2=XMSR&company3=&Symbol=SIRI&DoCompanyLookup=

Looks like they're both hemorrhaging money, and we all know where the money is going: customer acquisition and content.
Sirius has had over twice the sales growth of XM over the last 12 months. Sirius also has half the debt to equity ratio of XM.

Quote :

"One advantage XM is about to announce is that they will soon have the XM Passport available that will connect to any XM unit and allow you to transfer your XM subscription between units. This "

where did you read this at? I doubt they would let people have a ton of radios hooks up on one 12.99 plan without you paying extra...but what do I know

Quote :

"Sure Stern was a big pull, maybe a 50-100 million dollar pull, but NOT a half a billion dollar pull."

Quote :

"Sirius has added approximately 1.1 million subscribers since Stern launched his show last month, bringing its total subscribers to 3.3 million. "

http://www.eonline.com/News/Items/0,1,18328,00.html

1,100,000 * 12 months * 12.95 = $171 Million per year plus extra radios, plus people who continue to sign up for Stern. Sure not every one of those 1.1 million signed up for Stern, but obviously a shit ton of them are Stern fans.


nice post btw, exactly the kind of info I'm looking for


[Edited on February 10, 2006 at 1:10 AM. Reason : ]

2/10/2006 12:56:07 AM

Hey I tried to get as much of the info as I could from the websites that had their comparisons. XM's site had all the makes laid out by kinda car, manufacturer, etc. All that Sirius had was a little spot that said, "We are in DaimlerChyrsler, BMW, Ford, etc." It didn't say anything about Nissan, for example so I couldn't say that they were in it. Also it didn't say anything about those other leagues, I looked at their website and it had the conferences that I put listed on there, and nothing more.

Quote :

"where did you read this at? I doubt they would let people have a ton of radios hooks up on one 12.99 plan without you paying extra...but what do I know"

http://www.xmradio.com/ces2006/announcements.jsp#passport

There is the link to the Passport on XM's website. Will be out next month.

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2006/pi20060209_359617.htm

Apparently WallStreet is impressed by XM. They have been raised to a 5 Star Buy right now, while Sirius:

Quote :

"In its coverage of radio & TV broadcasting, Banc of America's top picks are Radio One (nasdaq: ROIAK - news - people ) and Univision Communications (nyse: UVN - news - people ), both rated "buy" with respective price targets of $15 and $35. Its least favorites are Citadel Broadcasting (nyse: CDL - news - people ) and Sirius Satellite Radio, rated "neutral" and "sell," respectively, with price targets of $11 and $5.50. "

http://www.forbes.com/2006/02/09/xm-satellite-radio-0209markets13.html?partner=yahootix

So apparently the market is less concerned with the debt for XM because they feel XM will deliver a higher cash flow per user at maturity than Sirius, as the company isn't burdened by Sirius' programming and equity costs.

2/10/2006 6:51:22 AM

Quote :

"All that Sirius had was a little spot that said, "We are in DaimlerChyrsler, BMW, Ford, etc." It didn't say anything about Nissan, for example so I couldn't say that they were in it."

http://www.sirius.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=Sirius/Page&c=Page&cid=1043186280865

Quote :

"Apparently WallStreet is impressed by XM. They have been raised to a 5 Star Buy right now, while Sirius:"

Wall Street is more than Banc of America's picks

http://www.google.com/search?oi=stock&q=stocks:SIRI&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dsiri%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26rls%3DGGLG,GGLG:2005-52,GGLG:en

2/10/2006 9:29:53 AM

We have XM.

2/10/2006 11:41:03 AM

A merger really wouldnt create a monopoly. Neither firm has true pricing power and demand for satellite radio is rather elastic.

2/10/2006 11:43:43 AM

I have Sirius, love it.

Sirius a much better rock/jam selection.

2/10/2006 2:57:12 PM

yay for XM!!!

2/10/2006 5:35:38 PM

well, if this was three or four weeks ago, I'd have said buy stock in XM

oprah's signing shot shares up from $1.74 to over $26
sirius closed at $6.01 on thursday


i'm thinking go with sirius, and hope they make a major move in the next year or so; if not, sell and you probably won't lose/gain much

2/10/2006 6:19:49 PM

Quote :

"'m thinking go with sirius, and hope they make a major move in the next year or so; if not, sell and you probably won't lose/gain much"

thats what I was thinking...they're due to report "earnings" soon too, I think it'll be good news

2/10/2006 7:53:10 PM

Hey just thought I'd let ya know found out a little information today. Look for Sirius to announce in the next couple weeks that they are raising prices on the subscriptions.

2/10/2006 8:29:28 PM

thank god for 1 year paid in full, also thank god for multiple unit discounts.. and pay per month that we have on our boat, so we only have to pay for the months it's in the water. also from where the hardware pricing was when i first got sirius the month it came online was over 300 bucks.. i just picked up the kit for the boat, 69 bucks included the antenna... not a bad deal... i think it's going to catch on as cable/satellite did... people are willing to pay for commercial free uncensored radio, as they have done with CD's in the past. I do however like the fact that sirius gives discounts on any additional account past the first... don't know if XM does or not as I don't have it and don't intend on getting it, especially after having DirecTV switch to their feed... it is not impressive

2/10/2006 10:46:38 PM

XM does discount for each additional unit/account up to 4.

The only distinguishing factor between the two is Stern

and I think he's a fucking moron and not entertaining and trite.

so XM got my money.

2/10/2006 11:02:19 PM

The pure fact that XM has Oprah makes it a pretty big deal. She has so much influence it's ridiculous. The sports differences would make me favor Sirius, along with the fact that they probably have to make some sort of big deal to compete with XM/Oprah. Stern likely doesn't have nearly as huge an audience as Oprah. You know every little soccer mom is going to be buying XM up so they can listen to Oprah if they're missing her on TV during Princess's ballet practice.

2/10/2006 11:09:09 PM

Quote :

"Hey just thought I'd let ya know found out a little information today. Look for Sirius to announce in the next couple weeks that they are raising prices on the subscriptions."

source?

2/11/2006 2:16:40 AM

Sorry I'll try and find it. Saw the story at work, but I didn't e-mail the link to myself or anything like that.

2/11/2006 9:42:06 AM

actually, sports wise, I'd take XM just for the ACC.

I've already used it at least a dozen times already.

2/11/2006 9:49:06 AM

I've been aching to get one or both of these services. I almost got a free Sirius radio and my car receiver is XM ready.

I'd invest in whichever one has the NFL. They don't generally fuck up on decisions like which provider they allow to carry their product.

2/11/2006 10:00:35 AM

anyone know when the NFL contract comes up again? When the NFL originally signed, there was far less difference between the two services. That isn't necessarily the case anymore. I would be curious to see who the NFL would sign with now.

Although, the NFL is ALL about the money and Sirius has show a tendancy to spend, spend, spend. So I guess we'll see.

2/11/2006 11:40:36 AM

haha i have had both of them for a couple years... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$4

2/13/2006 2:26:01 AM

damn, XP just posted huge losses, freaking out has ensued. i don't understand why though, it was expected wasn't it?

http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=SUNA,SUNA:2006-02,SUNA:en&q=xm


somehow I think Sirius's news will be better, think it comes out on the 22nd or so

2/16/2006 11:46:02 AM

fyi

http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=378159

2/16/2006 12:05:05 PM

http://www.worldspace.com/ is just coming up. It is more focused on the international audience and I think they allow more Ads than XM or Sirius. I can see it swallowing one of the 2 (XM or Sirius) or the government allowing Worldspace into the american market then allowing XM and Sirius to merge.

2/16/2006 12:20:34 PM

Quote :

"and I think they allow more Ads than XM or Sirius"

we're not going to like it if thats the case.


also most Americans would rather not have all kinds of international channels and offerings. if you haven't noticed America is about as anti-international anything as you can get.

2/16/2006 1:20:43 PM

Yea plz to enlighten me as to why I would want a satellite service that has ads, or rather more ads? Part of the joy of paying for XM is that I do NOT get advertisements. At worst I get a little 5 second blip that says "Your listening to Squizz on XM radio" or some quick blurb like that. If I wanted ads, I'd just listen to FM "Its Free Baby!" stations.

2/16/2006 7:07:15 PM

Quote :

"anyone know when the NFL contract comes up again? When the NFL originally signed, there was far less difference between the two services. That isn't necessarily the case anymore. I would be curious to see who the NFL would sign with now. Although, the NFL is ALL about the money and Sirius has show a tendancy to spend, spend, spend. So I guess we'll see."

not only that but if you wanna call it Stern VS Oprah, then you'd expect sirius to cater to men more. we know that isnt necessarily the case, but it would seem that way to someone who doesnt know too much about either (which is a big deal truthfully).

2/16/2006 7:12:58 PM

Oprah isnt a big factor for XM, shes only supposed to have a 30 minute show each WEEK and the rest is filler

Sirius has Martha Stewert and Howard Stern, they our outpacing XM in new subscribers, and their stock is a value compared to XM at 1/4 the price. I believe I read Morningstar and Barclays just upgraded SIRI to Strong Buy from Hold and Sirius has beaten the EPS estimate the last few quarters.

Dont forget also that today XM reported earning which sharply missed expectations, and one of the directors resigned, stating that the company was in a crisis.

[Edited on February 16, 2006 at 9:09 PM. Reason : .]

2/16/2006 9:04:50 PM

ouch, today was a tough day for SIRI, and the second of two tough days for XMSR

2/17/2006 3:35:20 PM

Here's some net financial info about each of the companies for the past few years"

XM:
Net Income (millions): 2004:-642.4, 2003:-587.3, 2002:-495.0, 2001-284.4

Sirius:
Net Income (millions): 2004:-712.2, 2003:-226.2, 2002:-422.5, 2001:-235.8

Now, my question is, why would you invest in a company that doesn't make any money? Investing like that is what caused the whole tech bubble fiasco. My suggestion, look for companies that have long-term, secure growth potential. Don't go by these so-called experts like cramer that are only in it so they can sell more copies of their latest book. Just my 2 cents though

2/17/2006 7:36:25 PM