is anyone else scared? Its been on my radar for a year or so now but I haven't been too concerned until I read this... now i'm a bit freaked out:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1753892,00.html

if the british government is already that far along in contigency plans..... i feel like we're pretty much fucked

8/27/2005 10:21:49 PM

Quote :

"The young would be hit hardest because older people have some immunity left from the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968. Officials are looking for sites for mass mortuaries. The global death toll could make the pandemic more serious than the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak, the worst infection since mass statistics have been gathered."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1724318,00.html

[Edited on August 27, 2005 at 10:27 PM. Reason : s]

8/27/2005 10:26:30 PM

According to the CDC, the spread of the virus (H5N1) hasn't officially progressed past the spread of birds --> people; the concern is the possibility that the virus could mutate to a form which could be passed easily from one person to the next. The British reaction seems a bit over-the-top to me, but then they may be privy to information that hasn't been made available to the public (like a recently mutated strain).

Either way, in the case of a bird-flu problem I'd much rather be in the U.S. than any other country -- our CDC jumped into action immediately after the Asian outbreaks; they've had crisis and emergency plans underway for awhile now. It sounds to me like Britain has sort of dropped the ball on public health plans concerning the virus, and is now attempting some weird game of catch up.

8/28/2005 12:46:03 AM

Quote :

"they may be privy to information that hasn't been made available to the public (like a recently mutated strain)."

exactly. that's what is a little unnerving about this latest news of british contingency plans...

8/28/2005 8:20:11 AM

I was in Vietnam when this happened nearly 2 years ago. It was kinda scary when I was there but not that big of a deal. The government just had everyone wipe out their chicken/duck and other bird population.

Then last year I got really freaked out when the WHO sent out some warnings and asked for more budget. There was alot written about the bird flu and how it was going to explode into a pandemic.

This time I'm not so freaked out. Apparently WHO has been doing this "pandemic" scare for for a few years.

8/28/2005 8:42:49 PM

its all dubya's fault. either that or its part of the J00 WOrld order...

8/28/2005 9:17:53 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/04/bush.avianflu/index.html

This pandemic scare is picking up steam more. Considering its been addressed in the US and by the UN has made me concerned about it now. WHO has been saying this for a long time but its officially back on my radar. Considering half of my family, including my mom, is in Vietnam right now, I'm worried.

10/4/2005 11:19:46 PM

so what would happen to State if this horrible possibility became reality?

10/4/2005 11:29:38 PM

I'm guessing only the smart people would remain. TWW would be very very quiet.

10/4/2005 11:36:44 PM

I don't really think it is a "scare" or "hype"

I mean - we know that the flu virus mutates. Its only a matter of time before it happens. Sure it might not happen for another 10 years, but its going to happen. No amount of apathetic or disdainful putting-down of that prediction will stop the bird flu from eventually mutating into an easily transferrable human virus.

10/4/2005 11:40:56 PM

what effect would it have here in the United States? I read somewhere it might be in the hundreds of thousands, which might not be so bad (I know it is bad, it's just compared with the rest of population a few hundreds of thousands is not that many).

10/4/2005 11:42:45 PM

You're right. It should happen eventually. I've been following this for the past 2 years and every year they (being The WHO) say "this is the year." First time I've heard the US and UN address it though.

10/4/2005 11:43:05 PM

A few hundred of thousands of people killed by chicken sounds like a big deal to me.

10/4/2005 11:46:18 PM

dup

[Edited on October 4, 2005 at 11:46 PM. Reason : ?]

10/4/2005 11:46:19 PM

Compared with the rest of the US population, a few hundred thousand deaths is enormous - it would have a massive impact on our economy for one thing, and pretty much everyone would know someone who had died from the bird flu.

If you're comparing it to world population, then yes you're right it wouldn't have that big of an impact because most of the deaths would be in third world nations.

10/4/2005 11:48:40 PM

^Sorry. I don't know too much about pandemics. Is the media just exagerating this?

It's just that this sounds like something to worry about. A horror/thriller move come true.

What can you do to survive?

[Edited on October 4, 2005 at 11:52 PM. Reason : ooops]

10/4/2005 11:51:43 PM

its not a horror movie come true - its just a natural cycle - this shit happened in 1918 and before that, you might remember (from your history texts).

nothing you can really do to survive, actually. In fact, the most at-risk population will be our age group; people aged 20-35.

10/4/2005 11:56:47 PM

^^ Duct tape.

[Edited on October 4, 2005 at 11:57 PM. Reason : damn can you ^ stfu for a minute?]

10/4/2005 11:56:54 PM

^lol

Why is our age group most at risk?

10/4/2005 11:58:08 PM

stfu yourself double-poster

10/4/2005 11:58:30 PM

Quote :

"Why is our age group most at risk?"

research it on your own time you fucking moron. I don't take kindly to mockery

10/4/2005 11:59:19 PM

haha

okay.

I wasn't mocking, but I'll try to research it on my own. Thank you.

10/5/2005 12:00:51 AM

I seriously am curious as to why our age group would be at risk.

At the same time, I am unconcerned. In retrospect that might prove to be stupid, but I've heard too many disease scares just in my short life to give any of them much credit anymore. I can remember folks in this country being freaked out by ebola, pfisteria, SARS, bird flu (in previous years), West Nile virus, mad cow, and probably some others I can't remember. Eventually you get the "cry wolf" effect, and stop giving a shit.

The media likes people to be scared, and to some extent, the people themselves (at least in this country) like being scared, even if they don't know it. Until I start seeing a verified and disturbing death toll, this is just yet another thing that I feel confident in ignoring.

10/5/2005 1:52:42 AM

Quote :

"You're right. It should happen eventually. I've been following this for the past 2 years and every year they (being The WHO) say "this is the year." First time I've heard the US and UN address it though."

well shit, of course no one knows exactly when it will happen. It is like trying to predict any other natural thing. Do they ever know exactly where a hurricane will hit until it is too late? Or a tornado? Or an earthquake? Or any number of other things?

Quote :

"I seriously am curious as to why our age group would be at risk."

Supposedly the older population might(thats a big might, since no one knows what the strain will actually look like until it mutates. and even then it could mutate again before it gets here) still have some imunity to it from the Hong Kong flu of like 68. So anyone younger than like 35 will be slightly more at risk. And people from about 20-35 in general have more contact with other people than children and teens, so there is more of a risk of transmittance.

10/5/2005 7:35:27 AM

Natural selection.. who's gonna survive it!

10/5/2005 7:52:26 AM

its the natural population control of a species in order to maintain homestasis.. something has to give...

10/5/2005 7:56:12 AM

^haha

Quote :

"nothing you can really do to survive, actually. In fact, the most at-risk population will be our age group; people aged 20-35."

Fucking great, now another thing we're all up against. Must make the old folks feel good knowing they aren't the most at risk for once.

10/5/2005 7:57:29 AM

Quote :

"Supposedly the older population might(thats a big might, since no one knows what the strain will actually look like until it mutates. and even then it could mutate again before it gets here) still have some imunity to it from the Hong Kong flu of like 68. So anyone younger than like 35 will be slightly more at risk. And people from about 20-35 in general have more contact with other people than children and teens, so there is more of a risk of transmittance."

this is complete bullshit. not bad for talking out your ass though.

too bad its completely wrong

10/5/2005 8:30:32 AM

^

the second part might be talking out my ass, it just sounded good this morning. But the part about the Hong Kong flu is what i read somewhere else. and if you have the time to read all that and call me out, y don't you enlighten us

hmm, now that i think aobut it that doesn't really make sense though. I like this a lot better

Quote :

"In the event of a deadly influenza pandemic, it is doubtful that any of the world's wealthy nations would be able to meet the needs of their own citizenry -- much less those of other countries. Domestic vaccine purchasing and distribution schemes currently assume that only the very young, the elderly, and the immunocompromised are at serious risk of dying from the flu. That assumption would have led health leaders in 1918 to vaccinate all of the wrong people. Then, the young and the old fared relatively well, while those aged 20 to 35 -- today typically the lowest priority for vaccination -- suffered the most deaths from the Spanish flu. And so far, H5N1 influenza looks like it could have a similar effect: its human victims have all fallen into age groups that would not be on national vaccine priority lists, and because H5N1 has never circulated among humans before, it is highly conceivable that all ages could be susceptible. Every year, trusting that the flu will kill only the usual risk groups, the United States plans for 185 million vaccine doses. If that guess were wrong -- if all Americans were at risk -- the nation would need at least 300 million doses. That is what the entire world typically produces each year."

[Edited on October 5, 2005 at 11:06 AM. Reason : ]

10/5/2005 10:48:19 AM

Quote :

"I can remember folks in this country being freaked out by ebola, pfisteria, SARS, bird flu (in previous years), West Nile virus, mad cow, and probably some others I can't remember. Eventually you get the "cry wolf" effect, and stop giving a shit."

This seems to be more of a concern because there is a flu outbreak every year. It spreads like mad from person to person and has a tendency to mutate easily.

The issue here is that (and correct me if I'm wrong) 50% of the people who get bird flu have died. Thats HUGE. Imagine half of the people who got the flu being dead.

Ebola was contained quickly and people who have the disease don't live very long after infection. SARS is still a concern but again, it was contained quickly. The West Nile virus killed something like 1 out of 10 victims so the mortailty rate of people who got it was on the order of 10% (1/5th the potential of this). Mad Cow wasn't much of a concern for the US because it only would spread if certain parts of the cow were consumed (brain, spine and neck area I believe). In the US the affected parts of the cow are not routinely used anyway but in other countries they are.

[Edited on October 5, 2005 at 4:17 PM. Reason : +]

10/5/2005 3:49:23 PM

^hmm . . . not sure about the death rate of it in humans thus far. But there have only been a few people that have gotten the H5N1 strand. So there isn't really enough info to judge on a kinda death rate there. But the death rate in birds that contract is very near 100%.

10/5/2005 8:14:06 PM

I guess i'll be on the lookout for birds with runny noses and funny coughs then...

Quote :

"A few hundred of thousands of people killed by chicken sounds like a big deal to me. "

OMG! BLACKS WILL ALL BE DYING OF THE FLU AND OUR CRIME RATE WILL DECREASE!!! HOLY CRAP!!!

10/5/2005 8:26:56 PM

oooh, the bird flu is gonna get us! It killed like 2 people over in Indonesia or somewhere. I willingly submit to martial law and military enforced quarantines. Can I turn my guns in too while I'm at it?!

Keep me safe government!

[Edited on October 6, 2005 at 12:47 PM. Reason : 1]

10/6/2005 12:47:11 PM

^ you say that now, but as soon as it does hit i'm sure you'll have all kinds of great theories about the Illiad or whoever that planned it in their secret world government laboratories

10/6/2005 1:21:28 PM

Can we go ahead and just enforce the quarantines and martial law now?! Before the big bad flu bird gets here? Literally 1s and 2s of people might die!!!!!!!!!!!

10/6/2005 1:27:27 PM

the illiad

gg

10/6/2005 1:30:00 PM

NEWS FLASH

YOU CAN DIE.

OMFG

NO WAY!

10/6/2005 1:33:32 PM

what about SARS?!!!!!



WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!

UNLESS WE SUBMIT TO MARTIAL LAW AND GUN CONFISCATIONS. GIVE UP YOUR LIBERTY FOR SAFETY. YOUR GOVERNMENT WILL PROTECT YOU.

REMEMBER. THEY ATTACKED US BECAUSE THEY HATE OUR FREEDOMS. WHO'S TAKING AWAY OUR FREEDOM? THE REAL TERRORISTS.

[Edited on October 6, 2005 at 1:58 PM. Reason : 1]

10/6/2005 1:49:55 PM

It's all a conspiracy perpetuated by the anti-bacterial soap and disinfectant companies...

10/6/2005 2:00:18 PM

I've yet to hear any of the elitist zionist politicians call for gun confiscation in light of bird flu.

10/6/2005 2:46:30 PM

Quote :

"Ebola was contained quickly and people who have the disease don't live very long after infection. SARS is still a concern but again, it was contained quickly. The West Nile virus killed something like 1 out of 10 victims so the mortailty rate of people who got it was on the order of 10% (1/5th the potential of this)."

I know all of these things, but at the time it didn't stop everyone from freaking out -- just like people are doing now about the bird flu. You know what's gonna happen? It's going to be contained, just like pretty much every other scary, scary new disease in the past fifty years (minus AIDS), and then people will forget about it, and next year monkeypox or some damn thing will come back in some scary, scary new form and everyone will shit a brick and nothing will happen, and so on ad infinitum.

Yes, there's a possibility that I'm horribly wrong, but it's no longer worth it for me to pay attention to these pissant bugs and the hysteria they provoke.

10/6/2005 5:24:30 PM

Its funny because AIDS is already a pandemic and nobody cares.

Shut the fuck up. Every single one of you that gets scared by an idiot with an iq of 4 explaining the next new threat.

10/6/2005 5:25:57 PM

^^ The funny thing is that the scare and panic is why these things are so quickly contained.

It is when we don't care or don't realize the threat that seriously bad things happen. (Or in the case of the 1918 flu that killed 100 million people - they just didn't have the means to stop it or contain it.)

10/6/2005 8:14:17 PM

You think that the presence of a bunch of crazy overprotective soccer moms sanitizing everything in sight or a bunch of Chinese businessmen with surgical masks is what keeps these things contained?

Doctors and epidemiologist do that job. Shaking in your airtight rubber suit doesn't.

10/6/2005 9:11:27 PM

sadly for your theory, the sanitation masks are widely credited with playing a significant role in the containment of SARS

10/6/2005 9:13:03 PM

I ain't buying it.

Even so, a disease with a mortality rate that low warrants some concern, not batshit panic.

10/6/2005 9:31:00 PM

Quote :

"Avian influenza viruses circulate among birds worldwide. Certain birds, particularly water birds, act as hosts for influenza viruses by carrying the virus in their intestines and shedding it. Infected birds shed virus in saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Susceptible birds can become infected with avian influenza virus when they have contact with contaminated nasal, respiratory, or fecal material from infected birds. Fecal-to-oral transmission is the most common mode of spread between birds."

Consider industrial chicken farming (yes, i saw the daily show last night)
http://www.factoryfarming.com/poultry.htm

Quote :

"Nearly ten billion chickens and half a billion turkeys are hatched in the U.S. annually. These birds are typically crowded by the thousands into huge, factory-like warehouses where they can barely move. Each chicken is given less than half a square foot of space, while turkeys are each given less than three square feet."

Half a square foot per chicken and less than three square feet per turkey. Considering how quickly avian flu could spread in this situation, doesn't it seem like a really bad idea? Of course, it's cruel whether it's unhealthy or not. The chickens and turkeys often have their beaks removed and are pumped full of antibiotics just to keep them alive. They'd die in these situations otherwise, meaning that they are practically undead. They're definitely in pain, and they're so pumped full of medications and the like that it would be surprising if they were even conscious all of the time. However, this particular post isn't about the horrors and unfairness of industrial meat, it's about how dangerous it is.

http://www.focusweb.org/main/html/Article367.html
The Taiwanese chicken industry tried to use the outbreaks of avian flue to its advantage by saying that industrial chicken farms are safe from avian flue, since they're closed systems. However, In Thailand, a farm operator in Ang Thong quoted in the Bangkok Post disagreed with the idea of promoting closed-farm system. "Ms Chatamas had operated a closed-farm for five years and through her experience had found that the number of chickens which had died from avian flu in her closed farm was higher than those in open farms, due to lack of immunity."

If the avian flu were to spread to industrial chicken farms, it would be practically unstoppable. We need to move away from industrial meat production as it's done now, and we need to do so even more quickly now because of the threat of avian flu. If it's so dangerous and the government is so worried about it, why aren't they stopping the businesses that are making a pandemic even more of a possibility?

10/7/2005 11:49:12 AM

Quote :

"And people from about 20-35 in general have more contact with other people than children and teens, so there is more of a risk of transmittance."

You don't have children do you. I think most people near 30 get sick in the following manner.
1) Kid goes to school, daycare, church, playgroup, etc.
2) Kid gets sick from another kid.
3) Kid gets whole family sick
4) Kid and other sick kids in the family go to their regularly scheduled activities (like morons) such as school, church, daycare, church, playgroup, etc.
5) The cycle continues.

I almost banned my kid from playgroup and baby activities at church last winter. One right after the other. Someone in our little family was sick for all but about 2 weeks last winter.

Compare this with my human contact:
1) Get in car
2) Drive to work
3) Work - keep my distance from obvioulsy sick people (which kids don't do)
4) Wash my hands from time to time (which kids don't do)
5) Get in car
6) Drive home
7) Catch my kid's cold

Maybe, just maybe college kids between 20-25 have more contact than kids and teens.



[Edited on October 7, 2005 at 11:53 AM. Reason : -]

10/7/2005 11:50:37 AM

^ why are you even responding to him? his entire explanation was complete BS and had nothing to do with why that age group is most vulnerable to avian flu

10/7/2005 11:53:01 AM

^Wasn't it you that made the original 20-35 at risk claim? Telling others to verify stuff you might be making up doesn't fly either. And while I'm at it why are you even responding to me if you feel that way?

RE:

Quote :

"Then, the young and the old fared relatively well, while those aged 20 to 35 -- today typically the lowest priority for vaccination -- suffered the most deaths from the Spanish flu."

Did they think to make it percentage based? Like 10% of old people died, 12% of children died, 35% of the 20 to 35 group died. If people aged 20 to 35 make up the largest percentage of the populace and 10% of everyone die then you can say that the 20 to 35 age group suffered the most deaths even though each age group experienced the same casualty rate. That says pretty much nothing.

[Edited on October 7, 2005 at 12:01 PM. Reason : .]

10/7/2005 11:55:58 AM