http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1474162/posts

Quote :

"From 2001: New Orleans faces doomsday scenario Houston Chronicle ^ | December 1, 2001 | ERIC BERGER Posted on 08/31/2005 10:02:01 AM PDT by rochester_veteran From 2001: New Orleans faces doomsday scenario Houston Chronicle ^ | December 1, 2001 | ERIC BERGER KEEPING ITS HEAD ABOVE WATER New Orleans faces doomsday scenario New Orleans is sinking. And its main buffer from a hurricane, the protective Mississippi River delta, is quickly eroding away, leaving the historic city perilously close to disaster. So vulnerable, in fact, that earlier this year the Federal Emergency Management Agency ranked the potential damage to New Orleans as among the three likeliest, most castastrophic disasters facing this country. The other two? A massive earthquake in San Francisco, and, almost prophetically, a terrorist attack on New York City. The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all. In the face of an approaching storm, scientists say, the city's less-than-adequate evacuation routes would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water. Thousands of refugees could land in Houston. Economically, the toll would be shattering. Southern Louisiana produces one-third of the country's seafood, one-fifth of its oil and one-quarter of its natural gas. The city's tourism, lifeblood of the French Quarter, would cease to exist. The Big Easy might never recover. And, given New Orleans' precarious perch, some academics wonder if it should be rebuilt at all. It's been 36 years since Hurricane Betsy buried New Orleans 8 feet deep. Since then a deteriorating ecosystem and increased development have left the city in an ever more precarious position. Yet the problem went unaddressed for decades by a laissez-faire government, experts said. "To some extent, I think we've been lulled to sleep," said Marc Levitan, director of Louisiana State University's hurricane center. Hurricane season ended Friday, and for the second straight year no hurricanes hit the United States. But the season nonetheless continued a long-term trend of more active seasons, forecasters said. Tropical Storm Allison became this country's most destructive tropical storm ever. Yet despite the damage Allison wrought upon Houston, dropping more than 3 feet of water in some areas, a few days later much of the city returned to normal as bloated bayous drained into the Gulf of Mexico. The same storm dumped a mere 5 inches on New Orleans, nearly overwhelming the city's pump system. If an Allison-type storm were to strike New Orleans, or a Category 3 storm or greater with at least 111 mph winds, the results would be cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said. "Any significant water that comes into this city is a dangerous threat," Walter Maestri, Jefferson Parish emergency management director, told Scientific American for an October article. "Even though I have to plan for it, I don't even want to think about the loss of life a huge hurricane would cause." New Orleans is essentially a bowl ringed by levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River to its south and Lake Pontchartrain to the north. The bottom of the bowl is 14 feet below sea level, and efforts to keep it dry are only digging a deeper hole. During routine rainfalls the city's dozens of pumps push water uphill into the lake. This, in turn, draws water from the ground, further drying the ground and sinking it deeper, a problem known as subsidence. This problem also faces Houston as water wells have sucked the ground dry. Houston's solution is a plan to convert to surface drinking water. For New Orleans, eliminating pumping during a rainfall is not an option, so the city continues to sink. A big storm, scientists said, would likely block four of five evacuation routes long before it hit. Those left behind would have no power or transportation, and little food or medicine, and no prospects for a return to normal any time soon. "The bowl would be full," Levitan said. "There's simply no place for the water to drain." Estimates for pumping the city dry after a huge storm vary from six to 16 weeks. Hundreds of thousands would be homeless, their residences destroyed. The only solution, scientists, politicians and other Louisiana officials agree, is to take large-scale steps to minimize the risks, such as rebuilding the protective delta. Every two miles of marsh between New Orleans and the Gulf reduces a storm surge -- which in some cases is 20 feet or higher -- by half a foot. In 1990, the Breaux Act, named for its author, Sen. John Breaux, D-La., created a task force of several federal agencies to address the severe wetlands loss in coastal Louisiana. The act has brought about $40 million a year for wetland restoration projects, but it hasn't been enough. "It's kind of been like trying to give aspirin to a cancer patient," said Len Bahr, director of Louisiana Gov. Mike Foster's coastal activities office. The state loses about 25 square miles of land a year, the equivalent of about one football field every 15 minutes. The fishing industry, without marshes, swamps and fertile wetlands, could lose a projected $37 billion by the year 2050. University of New Orleans researchers studied the impact of Breaux Act projects on the vanishing wetlands and estimated that only 2 percent of the loss has been averted. Clearly, Bahr said, there is a need for something much bigger. There is some evidence this finally may be happening. A consortium of local, state and federal agencies is studying a $2 billion to $3 billion plan to divert sediment from the Mississippi River back into the delta. Because the river is leveed all the way to the Gulf, where sediment is dumped into deep water, nothing is left to replenish the receding delta. Other possible projects include restoration of barrier reefs and perhaps a large gate to prevent Lake Pontchartrain from overflowing and drowning the city. All are multibillion-dollar projects. A plan to restore the Florida Everglades attracted $4 billion in federal funding, but the state had to match it dollar for dollar. In Louisiana, so far, there's only been a willingness to match 15 or 25 cents. "Our state still looks for a 100 percent federal bailout, but that's just not going to happen," said University of New Orleans geologist Shea Penland, a delta expert. "We have an image and credibility problem. We have to convince our country that they need to take us seriously, that they can trust us to do a science-based restoration program.""

maybe the mayor should have done something rather than building a giant stadium.

[Edited on September 2, 2005 at 2:26 PM. Reason : someone is donna be fizzucked]

9/2/2005 2:25:05 PM

its not the mayors fault

9/2/2005 4:31:19 PM

There were warnings in the 1700s not to settle the city because it was a fucking swamp and could/would flood.

This 200 year OLD NEWS.

9/2/2005 4:37:32 PM

you would think that the fact they had to change the way they bury people would deter them, butttttttttttt noooooooooooooooooo. They still go fucking build in a low spot.

[Edited on September 3, 2005 at 1:43 AM. Reason : .]

9/3/2005 1:42:36 AM

^^Exactly. As sad as it is, it was bound to happen. Doesn't take a genius or a prophet to figure it out.

9/3/2005 10:14:37 AM

but "no one could have forseen"

well we cant BOTH condem the people for moving there knowing full well a disaster was iminent AND fall back on ignorance after we fumble around and fuck up our rescue efforts

that double standard basically breaks down to "we weren't privledged to the same knowledge as the people we consider to be fucktards"

9/6/2005 2:41:58 AM

you can't build all of America's infrastructure to withstand a thousand year flood / hurricane / earthquake / whatever.

9/6/2005 6:56:23 AM

Too bad Bush cut the funding of the levees by almost half over the last 3 years. American civilians paying with their lives for the cost of the Iraqi war.

9/6/2005 7:53:32 AM

Who owns the levies? I'm sure, if they wanted to, the city, county, and state could have upgraded the levies.

Or, get this. Built them right THE FIRST TIME.

9/6/2005 9:12:09 AM

in 4 years i VERY well expect i giant earthquake in SF

9/6/2005 9:38:28 AM

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"well we cant BOTH condem the people for moving there knowing full well a disaster was iminent AND fall back on ignorance after we fumble around and fuck up our rescue efforts"

Yes, we can. We can blame 1% of the population for being ignorant, and we can blame ourselves for being ignorant of the fact that 1% of the population was ignorant.

^^^ To put your blind hatred towards Bush into perspective:

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"Other presidents also have taken aim at the Corps' budget. President Carters' first veto came against a big water projects bill passed by a Democratic-dominated Congress. And President Clinton squeezed the Corps budget as well. Doing so frees money for other White House priorities. "I fought every ... administration when they tried to use the Corps of Engineers as a piggy bank to pay for other projects," said former House Appropriations Committee Chairman Bob Livingston, a Louisiana Republican who represented the New Orleans suburbs for more than 20 years. "I had major battles with the Clinton administration." "Going back to Carter. They've all sought to draw down the Corps of Engineers and put it elsewhere," he said. Former Louisiana Sen. John Breaux, a Democrat, said it was clear during his time in Congress that flood control projects were shortchanged."

http://www.tuscaloosanews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050901/APW/509011208

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"For years, Congress has consistently approved far more for New Orleans-area projects than the White House has proposed. A prime example is the Southeast Louisiana Urban Flood Control Program, known as SELA, a $744 million project to improve canals and drainage in Orleans and Jefferson parishes begun in 1995 after a flood killed six people. So far, only $401 million has been spent. Although the Corps and outside experts agree that completion wouldn't have prevented the immense flooding Katrina caused, it would have sped the removal of water and reduced damage. Construction was never on a fast track. In 1997, for instance, President Clinton budgeted $10 million for the project. Congress decided to spend $17.5 million. [...] Funding disputes have long plagued the Corps. Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton tried to rein in spending. Bush forced out a director he'd picked - former GOP Congressman Mike Parker of Mississippi - after a few months when Parker complained the agency wasn't getting enough funding. "This transcends administrations," Parker said. Former House Appropriations Chairman Bob Livingston, a Republican who represented suburban New Orleans for two decades, agreed that the Corps has long been a prime target for White House budget-cutters. It never helped that lawmakers also often viewed vital projects as "pork," or that environmentalists managed to stall some construction. "There wasn't enough funding," he said. "You can blame a hell of a lot of people for that." [...] Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, commander of the Corps of Engineers, conceded in recent days that SELA hasn't been fully funded but he disputes that the Corps or New Orleans have been shortchanged. "We are spending a lot of money," he said. "The Corps of Engineers is involved in the reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan, but we're able to balance that with our human resources and it is not directly affecting our budget." He also took strong issue with any suggestion that budget constraints or poor planning hamstrung efforts to protect New Orleans. Decisions were made decades ago to build levees capable of withstanding a Category 3 hurricane, not a Category 4 like Katrina. "The intensity of this storm simply exceeded the design capacity of this levee," Gen. Strock said. "That is the basic problem here." [...] But backlogs are routine at the Corps. The agency has $50 billion worth of projects authorized by Congress but awaiting funding. One casualty has been the Hurricane Protection Project, a series of levees and floodwalls meant to protect New Orleans from surges in Lake Pontchartrain. Congress authorized the project in 1965, and it was soon far behind schedule. By 1982, the General Accounting Office said the forecast for completion had slipped from 1978 to 2008. The current estimate is 2015 - if the Corps gets the funding it says it needs. [...] "This is a coast that has not counted Republicans or Democrats as its friends," he said. "It's been ignored on an almost equal-opportunity basis.""

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/politics/12562638.htm

pryderi, your hatred towards Bush--an individual--blinds you to systemic and cultural problems within the government that have existed for years and span many, many administrations. It also makes you ignorant to the simple fact that, in almost any budgeting process, funding requested will exceed funding available. That means that something will get cut, every single time.

Regardless of federal spending, what about Louisianians themselves? Do they bear no responsibility for their own well being? In an article you posted in another thread, pryderi, the Corps of Engineers stated that $250 million in vital projects remained. In fiscal year 2003-2004, the Louisianna state budget was $16,794,616,611. During 2004-2005, it's $17,540,941,550. How could the state of Louisianna itself not come up with $250 million, after running through more than $34 billion in 2 years? My guess is that Louisiana is simply unwilling to take care of itself:

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""Our state still looks for a 100 percent federal bailout, but that's just not going to happen," said University of New Orleans geologist Shea Penland, a delta expert."

[Edited on September 6, 2005 at 10:29 AM. Reason : ]

9/6/2005 10:24:02 AM