Quote :

""The current weakness in front month gasoline crack spreads is unprecedented and is sending a very strong message to refiners about the need to sharply cut production," said Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London. The differential between gasoline and crude oil futures in the United States tumbled to minus $1.13 on Monday, the lowest since October 2003. It had started sinking on Friday. "

http://www.wtrg.com/

What this means is that refiners in the american market have over-speculated the demand for gasoline to the point of refining expensive oil to make cheap gasoline (buying high, selling low). Don't worry, they'll work it out like always. The price of crude has already fallen as refiners begin shutting production. Regretfully, the price of gasoline is falling still faster, it might be weeks or even months before it equalizes out.

2/15/2006 2:12:18 AM

I appreciate the jargon, LoneSnark. I really do. But all I need from you is this: "The price at the pump will ____________ for the next few months."

2/15/2006 3:34:33 AM

the point is, flaming liberals out there are being forced to tack on another 30 yrs to their "oil peak of d00m!!" scenarios

2/15/2006 8:41:43 AM

^ That about sums it up.

2/15/2006 10:02:17 AM

Quote :

"Regretfully Thankfully, the price of gasoline is falling still faster"

2/15/2006 12:22:58 PM

in this thread, i was inattentive and thought we were talking about the whole year

http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=381648


i would like to reiterate my predictions (as they apply to the year) from there

because of the India and China macro factors, we will see new highs this year

2/15/2006 12:28:30 PM

Care to guestimate how high? (I'd like to come back in a year and check)

And remember, be careful with your predictions. SandSanta already owes me $100 unless the price of gasoline goes up $1.40 from where it is right now in the next few months.

2/15/2006 9:49:04 PM

Gas should cost at least $4 a gallon, and we all know it.

[Edited on February 15, 2006 at 9:50 PM. Reason : sss]

2/15/2006 9:50:37 PM

Gas costs what it is because we pay taxes and insurance that ends up subsidizing the cost of gas to our/industry's benefit.

You're already paying the cost of gas, indirectly.

2/15/2006 10:06:52 PM

Quote :

"Refiners back to losing money again"

lie.

/thread

2/15/2006 10:38:53 PM

^What part of "The differential between gasoline and crude oil futures in the United States tumbled to minus $1.13 on Monday" didn't you understand?

2/15/2006 11:22:00 PM

haha dude there aint no way with bush in office you can convince me oil mongers are not making money

2/15/2006 11:40:13 PM

Apparently you are unaware of the concept of crack spreads, LoneSnark

I'm sure the refiners wrote crack spread options to ensure that they didn't actually lose money. Their margins have gone down considerably from last year, but they are still making a killing.

[Edited on February 15, 2006 at 11:53 PM. Reason : 2]

2/15/2006 11:49:41 PM

let's also not forget, that refineries make more than gasoline.

2/16/2006 12:30:03 AM

Quote :

"SandSanta already owes me $100 unless the price of gasoline goes up $1.40 from where it is right now in the next few months."

I wish I lived at New Your Harbor to get the mad cheap price of $1.3812/g because the cheapest I've seen gas in the last year where I live has been about $1.899/g.

(I assume you're talking pre-tax but are you always sure that others are also talking pre-tax when making their future predictions of $/g?)

[Edited on February 16, 2006 at 7:59 AM. Reason : -]

2/16/2006 7:58:01 AM

Quote :

"Care to guestimate how high?"

what i said in that thread

2/16/2006 11:26:47 AM

Quote :

"I'm sure the refiners wrote crack spread options to ensure that they didn't actually lose money."

Of course you are right. The article was talking about futures, afterall. It has not come time to deliver either yet. Like I said, they have time to work it out (some refiners will simply buy back their own futures in leu of fulfilling the order with gasoline).

The purpose of this thread was merely to point out that supply, for the first time in a long time, exceeds the demand.

Quote :

"but are you always sure that others are also talking pre-tax when making their future predictions of $/g?"

Indeed you have a good point. This is why I usually request predictions not by absolute value (depends where you are sitting) but by relative change (+/- $1).

[Edited on February 16, 2006 at 1:01 PM. Reason : .,.]

2/16/2006 12:59:35 PM