Or, at least, teh L3ft returns to its historic advantage in party ID...

http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=22168

Quote :

"March 29, 2006 Democrats Gain Edge in Party Identification During Last Year Fewer Americans identify as Republicans, more as independents by Jeffrey M. Jones GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are about as likely to identify as Republicans as they are Democrats according to a review of recent Gallup polls. However, once the leanings of independents are taken into account, the Democrats gain an advantage. Democrats have been on par with, or ahead of, Republicans in party identification since the second quarter of 2005. Since that time, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats has held steady, but fewer have identified with the Republican Party and more as independents. In the eight national polls Gallup conducted in the first quarter of 2006, an average of 33% of Americans identified as Democrats, while 32% identified as Republicans and 34% as independents. More Americans have identified as Democrats than Republicans in each of the last four quarters, although in each case the advantage was small -- from less than one percentage point to three points. The quarterly calculations involve very large sample sizes (approximately 8,000 for the first quarter of 2006), so even small changes from quarter to quarter are likely to be statistically significant. The small but meaningful change observed during recent quarters is due to a gain in independent identification and a decline in Republican identification. Democratic identification has been remarkably consistent at roughly 33% since the beginning of last year. Republican identification fell from 35% in the first quarter of 2005 to roughly 32% since that time. Independent identification has increased from 31% to 34% during the same period. Part of the increase in independent identification is most likely due to the passing of the 2004 election. Past Gallup polling shows that the percentage of independents typically declines in a presidential election year -- when partisan politics is at its most intense -- and then usually increases in the year following the election. Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Republicans have been more likely than Democrats to hold an edge in party identification. In the 18 quarters since 9/11, Republicans have had an edge in 12 of them. This is a change from the past, as Democrats have traditionally held an edge in national partisanship in Gallup polls dating back to the 1940s except for a brief period of time in 1991 around the Persian Gulf War and late 1994 and 1995 after Republicans took control of Congress. Even though basic overall party identification is essentially even, the Democrats can be said to have an advantage because more independents say they lean to the Democratic Party than to the Republican Party. This is significant because independents who lean to a political party tend to share similar attitudes and voting patterns with those who identify with the party. That could be one reason why Democrats have a lead in Gallup's generic congressional ballot this year. In the most recent quarter, 49% of Americans identify as Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party, and 42% identify as Republicans or lean to the Republican Party. Democrats have held that same 49% to 42% advantage during each of the last three quarters. In the second quarter of 2005, Democrats had a slightly smaller 47% to 43% edge. At the beginning of 2005, the parties were at even strength on this measure. Survey Methods These results are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan.-March, 2006. For results based on these combined samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±1 percentage point. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls."

3/29/2006 11:11:33 PM

they'll still vote republican, they just don't want their friends to know.

3/30/2006 8:42:20 AM

Alternate thread title: So this is why Bush is at historically low approval ratings...

3/30/2006 10:37:23 AM

Speaking of which...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060407/ap_on_el_ge/troubled_republicans_4

Quote :

" AP: Bush, GOP Approval Ratings Find New Lows WASHINGTON - President Bush's approval ratings hit a series of new lows in an AP-Ipsos poll that also shows Republicans surrendering their advantage on national security — grim election-year news for a party struggling to stay in power. Democratic leaders predicted they will seize control of one or both chambers of Congress in November. Republicans said they feared the worst unless the political landscape quickly changes. Just 36 percent of the public approves of Bush's job performance, his lowest-ever rating in AP-Ipsos polling. By contrast, the president's job approval rating was 47 percent among likely voters just before Election Day 2004 and a whopping 64 percent among registered voters in October 2002. By comparison, Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had public approval in the mid 60s at this stage of their second terms in office, while Dwight Eisenhower was close to 60 percent, according to Gallup polls. Richard Nixon, who was increasingly tangled up in the Watergate scandal, was in the high 20s in early 1974. As bad as Bush's numbers may be, Congress' are worse. Just 30 percent of the public approves of the GOP-led Congress' job performance, and Republicans seem to be shouldering the blame. "These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had," GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. "The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one." There is more at stake than the careers of GOP lawmakers. A Democratic-led Congress could bury the last vestiges of Bush's legislative agenda and subject the administration to high-profile investigations of the Iraq war, the CIA leak case, warrantless eavesdropping and other matters. In the past two congressional elections, Republicans gained seats on the strength of Bush's popularity and a perception among voters that the GOP was stronger on national security than Democrats. Those advantages are gone, according to a survey of 1,003 adults conducted this week for The Associated Press by Ipsos, an international polling firm. • Only 40 percent of the public approves of Bush's performance on foreign policy and the war on terror, another low-water mark for his presidency. That's down 9 points from a year ago. Just before the 2002 election, 64 percent of registered voters backed Bush on terror and foreign policy. • Just 35 percent of the public approves of Bush's handling of Iraq, his lowest in AP-Ipsos polling. "He's in over his head," said Diane Heller, 65, a Pleasant Valley, N.Y., real estate broker and independent voter. By a 49-33 margin, the public favors Democrats over Republicans when asked which party should control Congress. That 16-point Democratic advantage is the largest the party has enjoyed in AP-Ipsos polling. On an issue the GOP has dominated for decades, Republicans are now locked in a tie with Democrats — 41 percent each — on the question of which party people trust to protect the country. Democrats made their biggest national security gains among young men, according to the AP-Ipsos poll, which had a 3 percentage point margin of error. The public gives Democrats a slight edge on what party would best handle Iraq, a reversal from Election Day 2004. "We're in an exceptionally challenging electoral environment," said Rep. Tom Cole (news, bio, voting record) of Oklahoma, a former GOP strategist. "We start off on a battlefield today that is tilted in their direction, and that's when you have to use the advantages you have." Those include the presidential "bully pulpit" and the "structural, tactical advantages" built into the system, Cole said. One of those advantages is a political map that is gerrymandered to put House incumbents in relatively safe districts, meaning Democrats have relatively few opportunities to pick up the 15 seats they need to gain control. In the Senate, the Democrats need to pick up six seats. "I think we will win the Congress," Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean said, breaking the unwritten rule against raising expectations. "Everything is moving in our direction. If it keeps moving in our direction, it's very reasonable to say there will be a Democratic Senate and House," said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Strategists in both parties say it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for Democrats to seize control of Congress. First, the elections would need to be nationalized. Democrats hope to do that with a burgeoning ethics scandal focused on relationships between GOP lobbyists and lawmakers. Secondly, the public would need to be in a throw-the-bums-out mood. It's unclear whether that is the case, but 69 percent of Americans believes the nation is headed in the wrong direction — the largest percentage during the Bush presidency and up 13 points from a year ago. Third, staunch GOP voters would need to stay home. Nobody can predict whether that will happen, but a growing number of Republicans disagree with their leaders in Washington about immigration, federal spending and other issues. Bush's approval rating is down 12 points among Republicans since a year ago. Six-in-10 Republicans said they disapproved of the GOP-led Congress. "I'd just as soon they shut (Congress) down for a few years," said Robert Hirsch, 72, a Republican-leaning voter in Chicago. "All they do is keep passing laws and figuring out ways to spend our money.""

Where's the floor on this thing?

[Edited on April 7, 2006 at 2:51 PM. Reason : ...]

4/7/2006 2:40:35 PM

It doesn't exist. Teh L3ft is going to take over both chambers of Congress, indict Dick Cheney, impeach and convict the President over Iraq and then install Nancy Pelosi as his successor...

4/7/2006 2:46:19 PM

When there's no other point to make, revert to hyperbole...

I do agree with the article that the Democrats need to nationalize '06 and they need to do it post-fucking-haste. I don't know why they're dragging their feet on doing so, and aren't hitting hard enough on the multitude of ethical shortcomings from the Congressional & Executive GOP leadership.

Generally though, I like the idea of the GOP running on National Security at this point.

[Edited on April 7, 2006 at 2:54 PM. Reason : ...]

4/7/2006 2:49:06 PM

if republicans are evil it doesn't make democrats non-evil

The only people whos votes democrats could sway hate dems as much as repubs.

4/7/2006 3:07:19 PM

All politions are stupid.

4/7/2006 3:15:22 PM

^^ Regardless, the Democrats are polling significantly better than the Republicans for some reason...evil or not.

And, am I reading this right? Bush is at 37% Approval - 59% Disapproval on the Gallup poll? Wow.

And comically, the highest rating he's received in a poll during the last month is from NPR. Double-whammy.

[Edited on April 7, 2006 at 4:03 PM. Reason : LOLLERS]

4/7/2006 3:41:11 PM

Where were people's heads last Novemember when it mattered?

Though, honestly, it didn't matter much then. Most of the damage was already done. It's just that people are hearing about it now.

4/7/2006 4:32:24 PM

Quote :

"Where were people's heads last Novemember when it mattered?"

Any questions?

4/7/2006 4:35:49 PM

What does that even mean?

4/8/2006 7:33:31 PM

^ gay marriage.

I don't know which is worse: The fact that so many people care or the fact that they elected a president based on shit like that.

Okay, so the latter is worse.

[Edited on April 8, 2006 at 7:37 PM. Reason : UGH, FUCK PEOPLE]

4/8/2006 7:36:33 PM

I think the fact so many people simplify a vote for a presidential candidate in such a manner is much worse.

Quote :

"When there's no other point to make, revert to hyperbole..."

"

Quote :

"Where were people's heads last Novemember when it mattered?"

Any questions?"

[Edited on April 8, 2006 at 7:55 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2006 7:51:35 PM

That was their strategy. Are you implying it didn't work?

4/8/2006 8:28:09 PM

I'm implying hyperbole is rampant.

4/8/2006 9:25:28 PM

Which is in itself an implication that a significant number of people's heads weren't on gay marriage during the '04 election.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Section: MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Taxes (5%)
Education (4%)
Iraq (15%)
Terrorism (19%)
Economy/Jobs (20%)
Moral Values (22%)
Health Care (8%)

80% of voters who cited Moral Values as most important voted for Bush.

Section: POLICY TOWARD SAME-SEX COUPLE

Legally Marry (25%)
Civil Unions (35%)
No Legal Recognition (37%)

70% of voters who believed there should be No Legal Recognition voted for Bush.

Please explain how my comment constituted hyperbole. Or at least explain how since you didn't vote for Bush for that reason that you're extrapolating that neither did the majority of others who voted for Bush...

4/8/2006 9:42:39 PM

well I think it's obvious that most important issue does not mean only issue.

Also, if only those who did find it the most important issue voted for Bush, he would have lost the election.

So I think answering the question "where were people's heads...?" with a gay pride flag would fall under the hyperbole category.

4/8/2006 9:49:11 PM

Oh Jesus Christ.

I didn't realize you were trying to split pubic hairs.

This one's for you bigben1024.

Quote :

"Where were people's heads last Novemember when it mattered?"

4/8/2006 9:53:51 PM

and when does distinguishing gay marriage, terrorism and tax cuts count as splitting hairs?
they seem pretty different to me.

[Edited on April 8, 2006 at 10:01 PM. Reason : and when]

4/8/2006 9:57:06 PM

you're splitting hairs because i didn't outline EVERY POSSIBLE motive somebody might have had for voting for the president

The U.N.: Had nothing to do with Bush voters, except maybe spite
North Korea: Not Iraq, Not a Terrorist Organization
Jessica Alba: Are you on fucking crack?

4/8/2006 10:06:26 PM

I consider your post hyperbole. Maybe I interpreted what you were saying incorrectly.

well, I put the picture of the UN because many bush voters probably didn't want to surcome to a "global test" as Kerry put it.

The picture of NK represents how many bush voters probably wanted other countries involved so NK couldn't continue with their bitching about us for everything.
[edit: I see now that nothing can ever stop that]

The picture of Jessica Alba was answering the question literally about where people's minds were. It was more or less a joke.

[Edited on April 8, 2006 at 10:14 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2006 10:13:36 PM

i'm gonna agree with gamecat here

4/9/2006 12:01:05 AM

interesting.

4/9/2006 12:11:57 AM

Even as their unsigned, mind-blowingly awful op-ed piece attempts to shore up support for poor ol'George, the Washington Post's latest poll has the president at a newer low:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/10/AR2006041000259.html

Quote :

"Bush's Job Approval Rating Continues to Swoon Forty-Seven Percent of Americans 'Strongly' Disapprove of Handling of the Presidency Political reversals at home and continued bad news from Iraq have dragged President Bush's standing with the public to a new low and boosted Democratic chances of wresting control of Congress from Republicans in the November elections, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. The new survey found that 38 percent of the public approved of the job Bush is doing as president, down 3 percentage points in the past month and his worst showing in Post-ABC polling on this key measure since he became president. Sixty percent disapproved of his performance. Bush's overall job approval has remained below 50 percent for nearly a year while the proportion of the public critical of the president consistently has topped 50 percent. And perhaps more ominously for the president, 47 percent say they "strongly" disapproved of Bush's handling of the presidency -- more than double the percentage who strongly approved (20 percent) and the second straight month that the proportion of Americans intensely critical of the president was larger than his overall job approval rating. The public is more critical of Bush's performance in specific areas. A third approved of his handling of immigration issues while six in 10 disapproved. And as thousands gather on the Mall today to protest efforts to tighten immigration policy, three in four Americans said the government isn't doing enough to keep illegal immigrants from entering the United States. But more than six in 10 support reforms that would allow some illegal immigrants to obtain legal status and permanent citizenship if they meet certain conditions. Only one in five say all illegal immigrants should be declared felons and not allowed to work in the United States. The continued bloodshed and political chaos in Iraq continues to drag down support for the war, the new survey found. Barely four in 10 -- 41 percent -- currently say the war was worth fighting, down five percentage points since December. Nearly six in 10 -- 58 percent -- currently say the war was not worth the cost while nearly half say they "strongly" feel the conflict wasn't worth fighting. The latest result marked the 13th consecutive Post-ABC survey since December 2004 in which a majority of Americans has questioned the value of U.S. involvement in Iraq. With support for Bush at a new low and continued broad dissatisfaction with the situation in Iraq, the latest survey offers bleak news to Republicans but encouragement to Democrats poised to challenge the GOP in congressional elections less than seven months away. The poll comes days after new revelations in the investigation into who leaked the identity of CIA operative Valerie Plame to the media and after the president received a major setback in the Senate when an immigration deal favored by some in the White House collapsed on Friday. The latest Post-ABC news poll findings echo other recent surveys released in the past week. Nearly all have found public backing of the president at or near all-time lows. A total of 1,027 randomly selected adults were interviewed April 6-9 for this survey. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the overall results."

4/10/2006 2:38:48 PM