Gamecat
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http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=23923
| Quote : | "Americans Continue to Call Iraq Involvement a Mistake
Most want withdrawal, but no consensus on timetable
by Frank Newport
PRINCETON, NJ -- The majority of Americans continue to believe that the Bush administration's decision to involve the U.S. in Iraq over three years ago was a mistake. At the same time, there is no clear-cut direction from the people about what to do now. Only one out of five Americans would like to see an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. The vast majority favor an eventual withdrawal of troops, but disagree as to the timetable, with some favoring removal within 12 months' time, and others only when it is possible to turn the country over to the Iraqis. There continue to be strong partisan differences in views on the Iraq war.
Mistake?
Fifty-six percent of Americans now say it was a mistake for the United States to have become involved in the Iraq war, while 41% say it was not.
Gallup has asked this question about Iraq nine times this year, involving more than 7,500 interviews. The average percentage of Americans saying the war was a mistake over this time period has been 54%, and at no point this year has this measure dropped below 50%.
Americans were first asked about the Iraq war using this "mistake" question format in March 2003, at which time just 23% replied in the affirmative.
As it became clearer that the invasion had led to increased chaos and insurgent activity in Iraq rather than a stable democracy, the percentage of Americans saying U.S. involvement was a mistake began to climb. By June 2004, for the first time, a majority of Americans said they believed the war to be a mistake.
Thus, it took a year and three months for public opinion to change to the point where a majority disagreed with the basic decision to go to war in Iraq. (In contrast, it was not until August 1968 that a majority of Americans said involvement in the Vietnam War had been a mistake. This was more than three years after the initial decision to send large numbers of troops to Vietnam.)
Americans' views on the Iraq war have fluctuated over the last two years. The "mistake" percentage dropped to 38% in September 2004 -- after the successful Republican convention and official renomination of George W. Bush for president.
For the remainder of 2004 and throughout 2005, the percentage of Americans saying the war was a mistake was sometimes above, and sometimes below, the 50% mark. Americans were most negative in September of last year, when 59% said the war was a mistake.
As noted, all nine measures this year have shown at least half of the public saying the war was a mistake.
It comes as no surprise to find that views on the war are intensely partisan. In this latest poll, just 22% of Republicans say the war was a mistake, compared with an overwhelming 79% of Democrats (and 62% of independents).
There is a close connection between Americans' views of President Bush in general and their views on the war. Only 20% of those who approve of the job Bush is doing as president say the war was a mistake, compared with 80% of those who in general disapprove of the job Bush is doing.
In America today, there is a close connection between an individual's religion and his or her political views. It follows, then, that there is a strong relationship between various measures of religion and views on Iraq:
* Protestants and other non-Catholic Christians are most supportive of the war, with 49% saying the war was a mistake and 49% saying it was not.
* Catholics are more negative than other Christians, with 62% saying the war was a mistake.
* Non-Christians and those with no religion are the most negative of all. Seventy-two percent of the former and 69% of the latter say the war was a mistake.
* Only 46% of those who attend church weekly say the war was a mistake, compared with 63% of those who attend less than once a month.
What to Do Now?
Despite the majority opinion that the United States' initial decision to send troops to Iraq was a mistake, there is no consensus about what to do now. Most Americans favor a reduction of U.S. troops, but there is no clear-cut direction from the public about a specific timetable for troop withdrawal.
Only 19% of Americans favor immediate withdrawal. One-third favor a timetable that would withdraw all U.S. troops within a year. Another 38% favor an option that specifies taking "as many years to do this as are needed to turn control over to the Iraqis." A small 7% want more troops sent to Iraq.
There has been little substantive change in these views over the five times this question has been asked since November 2005.
Of interest is the fact that a broadly similar pattern of responses was obtained when this question was asked about U.S. involvement in Vietnam in the summer of 1970 -- 23% favored immediate withdrawal, 25% withdrawal within a year, 33% withdrawal in as many years as needed, and 10% favored an increase in troops.
Despite calls for immediate withdrawal by some Democratic leaders in recent months, only 30% of Democrats favor that option.
Given that 44% of Democrats favor a one-year timetable for withdrawal of troops, it can be said that three-quarters of Democrats do favor withdrawal of troops within the next year. The majority of Republicans, on the other hand, favor the option that closely mirrors the administration's position -- withdrawal only when the country is ready to be turned over to the Iraqis.
Survey Methods
The latest results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 21-23, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls." |
Just wanted to mark the one year anniversary of a majority of Americans calling the conflict a mistake. Feel free to comment, flame, or re-commence the End Times Circle Jerk over the other conflict in the sand. 7/29/2006 1:44:00 PM
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