Assuming we dont move towards a congressional distribution and either dont pass the popular vote bill or dont have the extra 20 some states required for that to go into effect... Who would win our Electoral votes?

Quote :

"Bush Approval Approve 37% Disapprove 59% Giuliani 47% Clinton 43% Giuliani 46% Obama 42% Giuliani 45% Edwards 46% Romney 41% Clinton 47% Romney 40% Obama 44% Romney 37% Edwards 51% McCain 44% Clinton 45% McCain 45% Obama 44% McCain 40% Edwards 48% Thompson 46% Clinton 43% Thompson 45% Obama 40% Thompson 43% Edwards 47%"

http://www.worklifeexpress.com/PPP/pdf/surveys/PPP_Release_062107.pdf

I dont feel like this turning into some hate-fest where we go back and forth with partisan bullshit. But, who do you think is going to win each nomination and how will it play out in NC?

It might not be the most likely scenario, but I think we will see Edwards v Romney with an Edwards win in NC by less than 5 points.

6/21/2007 6:35:48 PM

If those numbers hold, NC will be voting for the GOP.

Its far too early though to even discuss who will win and should concern ourselves with who should win.

6/21/2007 6:46:20 PM

Since when do North Carolinians like John Edwards?

6/21/2007 6:47:18 PM

regardless of what the outcome is, i definitely support splitting the electoral votes. Even if that means whatever republican candidate gets most votes (giuliana, romney, whatever) i don't care. i'm tired of all the votes going in one direction, regardless of what 40 or even 49% of the public say

6/21/2007 7:55:40 PM

^^NC isn't always that red. Example:



As far as Edwards goes, he's got some ideas on healthcare & education that people like, he's got a whole lot of name recognition, and he's given our state more attention and more campaigning time than any other candidate for the presidency. I met him at a $15 per person BBQ in NC the other day. Mostly though he’s been one of the strongest proponents of supporting our troops by bringing them home… and I think that’s helped him the most in NC. Here’s an example of his iraq stance:

Quote :

" John Edwards on Iraq at the Council on Foreign Relations The first 2 minutes are just on congressional bills that have already come to pass, but if you watch the last 1 min & 39 secs of the video you'll see some discussion of plans. Here are some of the highlights: “We need to get out of Iraq on our time table, not when we are forced to by our enemies or by events.” ”As a recent council report put it, the US has already achieved what it’s likely to achieve in Iraq. And staying in Iraq can only drive up the price of those gains” ”In Congress and the Whitehouse the focus has been on when to get out, how to get out, and how quickly to get out. Too little consideration has been given to what happens after we get out.” ”I believe that once we’re out of Iraq the US must retain sufficient forces in the region to prevent a genocide, to detour a regional spillover of the civil war, and to prevent an Al Qaeda safe haven.” ”We will most likely need to retain quick reaction troops in Kuwait and in the Persian Gulf. We’ll also need some presence in Baghdad, inside the green zone, to protect the American Embassy and other personal.” ”Finally we’ll need a diplomatic offensive to engage the rest of the world in Iraq’s future: including Middle Eastern nations & our allies in Europe.” On this point he’s said that may mean not being inflexibly closed to engaging with regional neighbors like Iran & Syria pointing out that they both have interests in a stable Iraq. He’s also talked about combining a mission focused on training Iraqi’s with showing we’re actually going to leave by starting to withdrawal some troops."

Now if he can just do well in the first round of caucuses, better than Hillary & Obama in Iowa, he might just have a real shot at the white house. They are raising the funds for that right now… there’s only about a week left until the 2nd quarter ends and all the financial numbers get reported again, so I’m hoping they do well. I’m planning on giving to the campaign before that point.
http://www.johnedwards.com/action/contribute/form

Personally I like how he talked about the big picture. Leading the way on alternative energy can help break our shackles to the middle east. It’ll do us well on global warming. Alternative energy though requires land as a resource… room for corn to grow, to collect wind energy, or solar panels etc… which is a resource Europe has less of, but Africa has enough undeveloped land to be the recipient of financial development if the cards are played right which could help with other problems in that area.

In addition to starting to pull out of iraq, he’s also said he close gitmo, & end unnecessary spying on Americans right away. He’s also gotten a lot of foreign relations experience over the last 4 years.

Sorry to have typed up so much, but all this is to say, I can see how & why North Carolinians like Edwards so much more now than they did 4 years ago.

(the short answer is he got somewhat better/more experienced, and the bush administration & by extension in the minds of alot of peoples the republican party, got alot worse/more corrupt)

Plus Hillary is seen as more polarizing, and has stood ever by her vote for the Iraq war where she made a speech about how Iraq & Al Qeada are strongly tied.

6/21/2007 8:15:42 PM

only thing i can say for certain is that its going to be a republican

probably thompson

6/21/2007 8:17:25 PM

Quote :

"Since when do North Carolinians like John Edwards?"

Im looking for the link, but in a 2004 exit poll done by Fox (which accurately predicted Bush's margin of victory here) it showed Edwards would have beaten Burr by the same amount that Edwards beat Faircloth in 98.

6/21/2007 8:26:05 PM

[quote]NC isn't always that red.[/quote

NC is pretty solidly red when voting at the national level.

your breakdown of counties is only true for state/local politics.

6/21/2007 11:11:55 PM

^Yeah that wasn't a great comparison.

In the last 20/30 years NC has just about always went Republican for president and Democrat for governor....last Republican governor was James Martin. I am not sure what last Dem. president won NC.

6/22/2007 12:54:39 AM

I'm pretty sure that Clinton was close in '92. I think the democrats fail to garner votes in rural counties by playing up the free trade connections to which the Republicans are often linked. As an example, a sticking point in the Doha Round is ag. subsidies, and there was a push to reduce tobacco subsidies by the Bush administration. Makes you wonder how those counties would go solidly red knowing their livelihood is at stake.

6/22/2007 1:47:56 AM

Given that we still have an entire year and four months before the election, I think trying to predict anything is rather silly. Voter sentiment, being the fickle creature it is, could drastically change on way or the other. For all we know, we may have a viable independent candidate in the race by then.

6/22/2007 2:54:47 AM

I consider my political views as libertarian. I agree with a lot of the classical conservative views on economic issues but totally disagree with NeoCon economic policy. Being libertarian though I usually find democrats as the lesser of two evils in modern political elections. As far as next election goes, however, there is no way i am voting for Mike Easley. As long as the republican candidate is not some a NeoCon or Traditionalist values christian conservative, I would vote repub. I disagree with a lot of shit Easley did in office. As far as presidential election goes I highly like John McCain's platform. For various reasons I would not want Hillary or Obama as president but would vote for them unless the repub candidate in my opinion was a moderate conservative. Otherwise my presidential vote is dem. not that it matters much anyway since NC is a red state as far as national elections go.

[Edited on June 22, 2007 at 3:22 AM. Reason : l]

6/22/2007 3:20:52 AM

^ for that reason (NC=red), my wife voted for Harry Browne in '00 --- although she denies it now.




[Edited on June 22, 2007 at 3:34 AM. Reason : harry browne, jerry brown, whoever.]

6/22/2007 3:31:49 AM

^^I used to like McCain alright too... I mean he used to be only slight right of moderate then, but of late he has been a Bush mouthpiece. I'm not sure how much of his own partys support he has sticking with the president on staying in iraq forever & immigration.

6/22/2007 6:27:19 AM

The winner whould be whomever won the popular vote in North Carolina. The national popular vote would go into affect until 2012 anyway.

6/22/2007 8:47:41 AM

and it will only go into effect if enough other states sign on, which might not happen.

We could see a congressional distribution though, which would probably lead to a 10-5 win for Republicans or a 9-6 win for the Democratic nominee

6/22/2007 8:58:44 AM

Quote :

"In the last 20/30 years NC has just about always went Republican for president and Democrat for governor....last Republican governor was James Martin. I am not sure what last Dem. president won NC."

carter

6/22/2007 10:11:23 AM

McCain was a credible Presidential candidate for about 3 months in early 2000.

then he brought out the light saber.

now he's tripping over himself to court the religious right and Bush's neocon buddies.

McCain is a hypocrite, and his candidacy is a joke. He has no chance in hell

6/22/2007 6:39:24 PM

mccain and edwards are the 2 people that should get their ass out of the race...they both have no chance

6/22/2007 6:47:30 PM

i wouldnt vote for edwards anyone who feels entitled to $400 haircuts, yet claims to be a "man of the people" ... but Edwards is certainly still viable as far as the polls go.



[Edited on June 22, 2007 at 7:10 PM. Reason : ]

6/22/2007 7:05:59 PM

MORE LIKE MIKE GRAVELL

AMIRITE

6/22/2007 7:46:32 PM

^^Appearances have had a big effect on elections especially since television started playing a role in them, and Hillary has had a few that were double that anyways.

He did address though in some Iowa speech on poverty.

"And I still believe in an America where you can come from absolutely nothing, to spending $400 on a haircut."

6/22/2007 8:11:21 PM

raise your hand if you have ever been so busy that you had to have a haircut at 11pm in your hotel room 2500 miles from your home.

Ok then.

6/22/2007 8:53:53 PM

I get the feeling that some of you wouldn't know how to spend $30 million dollars if you had it. Getting a haircut in a hotel room is far down on the list of baller-as-fuck things.

6/22/2007 9:50:11 PM

Quote :

"ever had to have a haircut at 11pm in your hotel room 2500 miles from your home."

i call bullshit.

and whether this is the "real reason", or just a possible scenario you imagined, doesnt take into effect, that he did it TWICE (at least, he tried to pay it off with campaign donations, twice).

anyhow, if you've got a paid staff and still cant fucking manage your time well enough that you're forced to get a gourmet $400 haircut at 11 pm, then you damn sure dont need to be the Chief Executive of the most powerful nation on the planet.

If he was a man of the goddamned people, he'd go sit his proletariat ass down in a motherfucking barber shop like the rest of us riffraff.

(and one more thing, he didn't "come from nothing" ... his daddy didnt "work in a mill"... his daddy ran the goddamned mill.

6/23/2007 1:39:49 AM

^ Being ridiculously rich, and spending your money extravagantly is not something unique to John Edwards.

If you could peruse the accounts of any politician, ESPECIALLY the presidents/presidential candidates, you'd see some ridiculous stuff, even stuff bought with campaign money.

I don't see why people are picking on Edwards for it. Yeah, it's ridiculous, but there's no good reason to harp on it, because they all do it.

Being a "man of the people" is not a requirement (and would likely hurt you for president) to be a politician.

6/23/2007 1:43:43 AM

i'm picking on edwards because he claims to represent the interests of the "common man" that he is uniquely able to empathize with the needs of the lower class and blue collar folks.

...while he lives large in a Howard Hughes-style mansion and gets $400 hair cuts.

look, i dont care how he made his money. i dont care that he's rich. and i wouldnt care how he spends it, except he goes around talking about how hes down with the salt of the earth or some such shit.

its this ostentatious display of wealth and unabashed consumption that pisses me off. you expect it from republicans. you might even expect it from old-money democrats. but goddamn, if youre gonna go around claiming to be an "ordinary average guy", dont own 32 cars and get $400 haircuts.

its just fucking hypocritical. its really not a whole lot different than these moralizing holier-than-thou religious right republican bastards getting caught hooking up with male prostitutes and doing meth. or creepily preying on 16 year old congressional pages.

yeah, yeah, i know theres a difference in that their behaviors are criminal but Edwards' is not. sure. but its similar in that you got someone pretending to be something they're not.

6/23/2007 4:01:47 AM

fair enough...

I don't like Edwards anyway though.

6/23/2007 4:25:48 AM

i think i would like him personally. he seems likeable and genuine. which isnt saying a lot, because i also think that i would like GWB, personally, for the same reasons. (if i could somehow "un-know" all the bullshit that has been revealed about his Administration)

but i have to be consistent in my contempt for political hypocrisy.



[Edited on June 23, 2007 at 5:19 AM. Reason : ]

6/23/2007 5:16:50 AM

Quote :

"because i also think that i would like GWB, personally"

yeah i think I would like GWB from personal level to. I do not think he's a bad person. I just completely disagree with his politics although I do not think he's the brains behind a lot of the shit going on.

6/23/2007 12:46:46 PM

edit- This wasnt supposed to be about Edwards.

[Edited on June 24, 2007 at 1:04 AM. Reason : back on topic]

6/24/2007 1:03:24 AM

so...

how bout that Mike Gravel feller?

snowball in hell?

6/24/2007 3:10:18 AM

He’s there to shift the debate and put his thoughts out there. I’m not sure he was ever in it to win. But I think to some degree he will achieve his goals.

It also so easy to come off as crazy when you have that much light on you. One inflated YEAH from Dean did in his public image. And this guy isn’t shy about how he comes off to the public.

6/24/2007 10:08:58 AM