Right now the top ten is

1 Hank Aaron 755
2 Barry Bonds 751
3 Babe Ruth 714
4 Willie Mays 660
5 Sammy Sosa 602
6 Frank Robinson 586
6 Ken Griffey, Jr. 586
8 Mark McGwire 583
9 Harmon Killebrew 573
10 Rafael Palmeiro 569


In 2017 I think the top then will be in this order. I'm not going to try and guess their eventual totals, but I say all on this list will be over 600.

I'll list their ages and current homers to give a point of reference

1. Arod 32 in a few weeks, 493

2. Bonds 43 in a few weeks, 751

3. Ruth 112 in a month, 714

4. Pujols 27, 266

5. Griffey 37, 586

6. Andruw Jones 30, 355

7. Mays 660

8. Manny 35, 481

9. Vladimir Guerrero 31, 352

10. Sosa 38, 602


A lot of these guys are interchangeable in their places within the top 10. I always have to remind myself that Andruw just turned 30 in April since it seems like he's been around forever. Most of these guys will be retired or on the brink by then, but Pujols will still be just 37 and have a few years left to move up the list. I'm interested to see if the rest of you think this many current players will cross the 600 threshold or will it remain an exclusive club.

7/7/2007 8:08:18 AM

haha, i like how ruth comes back from the grave to surpass aaron

7/7/2007 9:30:19 AM

ha, what a fucking retard I am.

I fucked up the entire thread by forgetting Aaron.

Oh well, I guess put him at number 3 and move everyone else down a notch.

7/7/2007 9:32:30 AM

i was actually looking at the list last night because griffey hit 586 and had this same conversation with my dad

your list looks alright

7/7/2007 9:44:01 AM

I think Miggy Cabrera could be approaching that number as well if he keeps up his hitting and lays off the burgers

7/7/2007 9:58:18 AM

the biggest danger to your list is if some of the younger players (arod/jones) end up going the route of griffey and suddenly becoming injury prone. Griffey started his career on a tear and was (at least for a time) the youngest to get to 400, then it all went to hell.

Maybe if he hooks up with Barry's trainer good things can happen. ;-)

7/7/2007 10:32:18 AM

I know but thats really hard to factor in right now

We know about Vladdy's back and Andruw recent struggles, but anything else is guesswork

I'm sure at least one of those players will have either an injury or start to decline early

But this list is based on staying healthy and playing 150 or so games a year, which most of them have been able to do up to this point

7/7/2007 11:54:22 AM

1. Arod 837
2. Bonds 784
3. Aaron 755
4. Ruth 714
5. Mays 660
6. Griffey 653
7. Manny 631
8. A Jones 627
9. Vladimir Guerrero 622
10. Sosa 620
11. Howard 599
12. Pujols 587

7/7/2007 12:50:22 PM

Howard is almost 28 already. To get near 600 he'd have to hit 50 every year until he is 38. That ain't going to happen. Fatasses break down a lot earlier than ARod or Pujols types... especially if they are power hitters.

Once this crop of players retires 600 will be incredibly difficult to reach without steroids and greenies. It's going to take a natural talent like ARod (who is in the Mantle mold to me minus the injuries) to do something like that... A player who comes up young like Miggy could do it but he is dangerously close to being on the way to eating his way out of the game too...

---- Sosa says he wants to play until he gets to Mays numbers... the way he is playing this year he'll definitely get a starting gig somewhere next year too so if he performs again who knows... I'm guessing around 665..

[Edited on July 7, 2007 at 1:41 PM. Reason : x]

7/7/2007 1:38:47 PM

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Favorite_toy

7/7/2007 2:05:01 PM

they should start a stat for strike three looking,

then Beltran can win that

7/7/2007 2:19:06 PM

Quote :

"haha, i like how ruth comes back from the grave to surpass aaron"

Haha.

7/7/2007 3:02:55 PM

I am in amazement at Griffey this year. Everyone pretty much wrote him off as finished (including myself) and he is showing what he can do when 100% healthy. And he just goes about his business...during all the bad press over the last 5 years, and during the good. There is no doubt in my mind he'd be right up there with Bonds and Aaron...

7/7/2007 3:14:33 PM

i think Josh Hamilton would have to be on my list

7/7/2007 3:39:26 PM

Is he gonna hit 60 homers a year over the next decade?

7/7/2007 3:53:53 PM

Quote :

"Miggy Cabrera "

yup, hes sooo young, and in his 5th year and already has 120 something.


if he can average 35 for the next 13-14 years he will be on there

7/7/2007 4:12:16 PM

It depends on how the guys develop.

Miggy has 121 over the equivalent of 4 full years and is 24 years old so it's pretty likely he'll get even more power as he progresses. I still have some questions about how he'll hold up considering he is a big guy and is getting bigger every year. David Wright has 82 over the equivalent of 2.75 years right now and is only 24. He probably will develop more power as he ages too and is far more likely to have a longer career than Miggy is if they continue down their current paths.

7/7/2007 4:35:34 PM

haha i got to this "what a fucking retard"

7/7/2007 9:58:40 PM

In 10 years, the top 10 will consist of Aaron, Ruth, Mays and 7 asterisks in no particular order.

7/7/2007 10:11:50 PM

howard is on a list? jesus christ. by age 33 he'll be a full time DH for some shitty AL West team, shuffling between 2 and 3 year contracts, struggling to find work.

7/8/2007 3:20:25 AM

7/8/2007 3:29:36 AM

Barring injury or something unforeseen, I'm pretty confident ARod will lead the list when he retires. I just wonder how many he can hit. 800 is a definite possibility, but I'll be anxious to see how he can go. Griffey had the chance to go well past Aaron if he kept his Seattle level of play up. Yankee Stadium will hurt him if he stays in NY. Texas would have been the best spot for him to stay from total homerun standpoint.

7/8/2007 3:35:07 AM

baseball is destined for a new deadball era... shit goes in cycles

if this steroid shit REALLY gets blown up, expect power hitting to start to level out.. players like reyes and guerrero are the future, if you ask me.

7/8/2007 3:43:46 AM

Quote :

"Griffey had the chance to go well past Aaron if he kept his Seattle level of play up."

it's more an issue of him being injured than his level of play.

and i agree w/ ^. i'd love to see more smallball. power hitting and the whole american league style of play is getting dangerously close to sacrificing quality ball for sexy ball. not nearly on the level that the nba does it, but you know.

7/8/2007 3:59:12 AM

I should have said his level of success

A guy at ESPN.com just analyzed the "What if..." factor with Griffey and came to the conclusion that he would have had about 666 right now if he'd been able to stay relatively healthy, with small annual detriments based on age factored in. He says this is conservative estimate. Thats 80 more than he has now and he's 37.5, so a full 4.5 years younger than Bonds. Would have loved to see him have the chance.

Here's the article and the breakdown for Griffey.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=keri/070625

Quote :

"1. If he'd stayed healthy, would Ken Griffey Jr. be the guy Barry Bonds is chasing? Junior got a warm reception in Seattle over the weekend in his first visit back. The applause wasn't only for a great Mariners player, but for a great period in franchise history, when Griffey was the Kid and the M's were an up-and-coming power in the AL. Griffey belted two homers Sunday, giving him 21 in what's shaping up as his best season in nine years. It also gave him 584 for his career. If we look at Griffey's career numbers, he played fewer than 140 games in 1995 and from 2001 through 2006 (1994 was the strike year). There's no surefire way to assign a number of games to each non-injured Griffey season, since we're dealing with a hypothetical exercise. But just for fun, let's try one projection which would qualify as extremely conservative: First, we'll assign 145 games to his '95 season, nearly doubling his injury-shortened total of 72. After his 40-homer season in 2000 at age 30, in which he played 145 games (his 12th big league season), let's assume he played that many games for the next five seasons, then started losing two games a year at age 35. We'll also assume that the rate with which he hit homers during those seasons didn't change. We'll leave his 2007 year-to-date total unchanged. Here's what his actual vs. projected numbers would look like: "

the chart comes out messed up on this page, just click the link

[Edited on July 8, 2007 at 4:27 AM. Reason : x]

7/8/2007 4:27:19 AM