Warning [words]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/stewart_mandel/11/12/bowl.projections/index.html?eref=T1

I found one interesting tidbit in Mandel's bowl projections column, that I was not aware of:

Quote :

"Note that a bowl can only select a 6-6 team from a conference if no 7-5 teams from that league are still available. Similarly, bowls seeking an "at-large" team to replace a conference that did not produce enough eligible teams cannot choose a 6-6 team if there is a 7-5 team available."

Obviously getting a 6th win would be big, and make us bowl eligible. The additional practices would be huge for carrying momentum/development into next year. However, winning both of our next two games rather than splitting them would undoubtedly make a difference of several tiers of bowl games.

Take a look at the ACC bowl tie-ins:

Orange: ACC Champ
Peach: ACC #2
Gator: ACC #3
Champs Sports (Orlando): ACC #4
Meineke (Charlotte): ACC #5
Music City (Nashvile): ACC #6
Humanitarian (Boise): ACC #7
Emerald (San Francisco): ACC

ACC Standings and remaining opponents (Consolidating Divisions for the purposes of this discussion):
Virginia............6-1, 9-2 (Virginia Tech)
Virginia Tech....5-1, 8-1 (Miami, @ Virginia)
Clemson...........5-2, 8-2 (BC, @ South Carolina)
Boston College..4-2, 8-2 (@ Clemson, Miami)
Wake Forest.....4-3, 6-4 (NC State, @ Vanderbilt)
NC State..........3-3, 5-5 (@ Wake Forest, Maryland)
Florida State.....3-4, 6-4 (Maryland, @ Florida)
Georgia Tech.....3-4, 6-4 (UNC, Georgia)
Miami...............2-4, 5-5 (@ Virginia Tech, @ Boston College)
Maryland..........2-4, 5-5 (@ FSU, @ NC State)
UNC................2-4, 3-7 (not eligible)
Duke...............0-7, 1-9 (not eligible)


Clemson should beat BC the way both teams are playing and advance to the ACC Championship to face the UVA-VT winner. Of course, Clemson doesn't have a good track record of winning late games they should win. Then again, BC doesn't inspire confidence in November, especially in a tough road environment in Death Valley. Should Clemson win, the top three bowl slots will likely go to the top three teams in the standings, with the ACC Champ going to the Orange, championship loser to the Peach (Gator does not want a repeat of last year with a poor showing by the fans of the team that just lost the ACC Championship in Jacksonville). The loser of UVA-VT gets the Gator.

Another interesting storyline if BC loses to Clemson, and State wins out, State would almost certainly get picked by the Champs Sports Bowl or Meineke over BC. Someone remind me of whether BC rule is a bowl can't pick a team with 2 conference wins less or more than 2 conference wins less over another team for a bowl bid. Watch for how far BC slips if they lose one or both games and NCSU heads to Orlando, as the Meineke Bowl would probably choose a 4-4 GT or 4-4 Wake over BC if they are allowed to, and Nashville would pick GT over BC but maybe not Wake. To further complicate things, FSU looks primed for 4-4 as well, and you would be looking at three 4-4, 7-5 teams in GT, Wake, and BC.

Regardless of what BC did earlier in the season, any bowl will choose a better traveling team that is close in the standings if they can. A 7-5 NC State team (on a 6 game winning streak), with a loss to Clemson would create a nightmare scenario for all 7 Boston College fans. It could create a tangled mess in the middle of the conference that would send BC to San Francisco, or return them to the familiar confines of Boise, Idaho.

11/13/2007 10:45:45 AM

11/13/2007 10:48:52 AM

I wanna go to Orlando

that would be the first choice naturally

and im not sure of the rule...but i remember it.

11/13/2007 10:50:09 AM

The breakdown is more like this:

Orange: ACC Champ
Peach: ACC #2
Gator: ACC #3
Champs Sports (Orlando): ACC #4
Meineke (Charlotte): ACC #5/6/7
Music City (Nashvile): ACC #5/6/7
Emerald (San Francisco): ACC #5/6/7
Humanitarian (Boise): ACC #8

11/13/2007 10:59:19 AM

What I meant to include in my post, before I got tired of typing, was the imporance of the State-Wake game Saturday. A State loss would leave us playing Maryland for a bowl bid, probably the Emerald Bowl, as we would be waiting in line behind every 7-5 ACC team. That would likely send GT or FSU to Orlando; Wake, GT, or FSU to Charlotte; BC to Nashville if Wake is left out, and out west if Meineke bites on Wake.

And even with 2 State wins, we could also end up in Charlotte with FSU taking the Champs.

11/13/2007 10:59:46 AM

What are the chances we can go to the Emerald? Personally, I would love that as it is only 20 minutes away...

V Poinsetta maybe? Emerald is Pac10-ACC

[Edited on November 13, 2007 at 11:03 AM. Reason : x]

11/13/2007 11:01:12 AM

Navy has accepted a bid to one of the bowls in the west i think, i saw it on the bottomline but don't feel like going to find the name

11/13/2007 11:02:35 AM

It doesn't look likely that we'll end up in a bowl different than listed, as the ACC now has 8 bowl tie-ins and I expect exactly 8 teams to be bowl-eligible.

11/13/2007 11:07:18 AM

navy accepted to go to poinsettia bowl

if we finish 6-6, we will be playing in charlotte.

[Edited on November 13, 2007 at 12:00 PM. Reason : 1]

11/13/2007 11:56:54 AM

i feel like there is most likely going to be blue turf in our future...

11/13/2007 12:07:15 PM

What is Oliver's Woofing Theorem

Oliver's Woofing Theorem states, in a nutshell, that in any given
athletic competition (team, individual, amatuer, professional), the
team/player who is the most over-hyped/over-praised by his/her/its
fans/supporters is doomed to LOSE the competition. For example, if
immediately preceding a game between the Seattle Mariners and the
Toronto Blue Jays, two Blue Jay's fans state that "Toronto will kick
ass", while only one Seattle fan makes a similar claim, then Seattle
is guaranteed a win by the ubiquitious and omnipresent Gods of Woofing.

11/13/2007 12:10:53 PM

to loosely paraphrase/summarize our folks in the paper:

''the only bowls i'm thinking about are the Wake Forest Bowl this week, the Maryland Bowl after that and my cereal bowl''

11/13/2007 1:33:59 PM

that said, i'd like to point you to the following:

http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=495588&page=1#10757923

http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=491143&page=23#10689067

11/13/2007 1:37:18 PM

http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2007/11/13/bowl-game-possibilities/
Said mostly the same thing, but actually documented the 7-5 rule. Also dug into the convoluted ACC central planning of the Music City/Meineke/Emerald Bowl bids.

Winning gives us a good shot at Charlotte or Nashville, with SanFran and Orlando possibilities. A loss Saturday will likely have us playing Maryland for the Blue Turf Bowl.

11/13/2007 5:01:35 PM

UNC, regardless of record, should always be eligible to play in the Gaylord Bowl.

11/13/2007 5:45:18 PM

UNC, regardless of record, should always be eligible to play in host the Gaylord Bowl.

11/13/2007 5:47:11 PM

I hate to be a negative nancy, but all this bowl talk has for sure jnixed us.

Look for a rather drab showing against WFU, and a gritty performance against UMd as the WFU game will be a wake up call.

11/13/2007 5:50:41 PM

i'm liking the bcs projections

oregon/lsu

va tech/wva

tosu/usc

uga/hawaii

okla/kansas (ehhhh)

11/13/2007 5:53:35 PM

why does it always come down to maryland as to what bowl we will go to

11/13/2007 5:55:34 PM

^^ how can Oklahoma play Kansas in a BCS game? Even if Kansas wins vs. Missouri and plays Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship, there is no way they meet again in a BCS game. If Kansas loses to Missouri, I don't think they'll make the BCS.




[Edited on November 13, 2007 at 5:57 PM. Reason : t]

11/13/2007 5:57:08 PM

Quote :

"why does it always come down to maryland as to what bowl we will go to"

because they have pretty commonly been towards the end of the season

11/13/2007 5:59:21 PM

yeah, no way they play each other in a BCS bowl and I think Hawaii will lose before the season is over.

11/13/2007 5:59:42 PM

COME ON GUYS, DONT SAY ANYTHING TOO POSITIVE...TWW THREADS HAVE MAJOR OUTCOMES ON OUR BOWL CHANCES

11/13/2007 6:16:57 PM

^^Maybe the Wolf Pack will take Hawaii down this week....

But if Hawaii does make a BCS bowl, it will be fun to watch the likes of a say Oklahoma or WVU whip them.

11/13/2007 6:35:59 PM

Hawaii is going to win out, they play Nevada, Boise, and Washington,

Both Boise and Washington are at home; playing on the Island isn't usually easy for people and I think they will win out and go to the Fiesta or Sugar.

But the thing is, they haven't played any big-time opponent not since 'bama the first game of last year where they lost by a TD.

So you never know.

11/13/2007 7:12:34 PM

Quote :

"If you want to crown 'em, then crown their asses."

11/13/2007 7:24:26 PM

Quote :

"But the thing is, they haven't played any big-time opponent not since 'bama the first game of last year where they lost by a TD."

They have beaten 2 terrible teams, San Jose State and Louisiana Tech, in OT.

This team could not beat an Oklahoma, WVU, whatever.

I think they will lose 1 of their last 3. Boise is good enough and Washington has talent.

[Edited on November 13, 2007 at 7:34 PM. Reason : wow]

11/13/2007 7:30:24 PM

^ i think he means last season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Hawaii_Warriors_football_team

[Edited on November 13, 2007 at 7:34 PM. Reason : linky]

11/13/2007 7:33:05 PM

i hope the pack makes a bowl game this season but have a funny feeling about the maryland game. (probably because by that time state will be favored)

pirates will be in the Mama-generic blueberry pancakes.org bowl or whatever shitter bowl we get invited to cuz we didn't finish down the stretch.

11/13/2007 7:34:42 PM

I thought the Gator bowl would be a better bowl than the Peach Bowl? Or at least it seemed that way when we went and beat ND.

11/13/2007 7:40:47 PM

And don't forget Brennan got knocked the fuck out in the last game with a concussion. Hasn't practiced yet but is expected to play. And I really wanted to watch the wolf pack and the pistol kick the rainbow warriors asses but the damn game doesn't come on until 11 friday night.

11/13/2007 7:42:40 PM

Emerald Bowl at AT&T Park (that's right a baseball stadium, still has a great view though)






I'd love to play a Pac-10 opponent. I don't when the last time we played a Pac-10 teams was.

11/13/2007 11:14:22 PM

so is it called Peach or Chick-fil-a Bowl? seriously, i'm tired of being wrong every other year.

if the Pack makes it to a Bowl game I would believe the Car Care would be their spot, if we get invited anywhere.

11/13/2007 11:23:41 PM

Do teams ever turn down bowl invites?

Maybe in hope of being invited to a better bowl?

11/14/2007 12:23:35 AM

Id rather avoid Orlando if possible...admittedly its way beyond our expectations at any point this year and would be a real achievement, but Orlando is a dump, and the Citrus Bowl is the epitome of that. Id still try to go, although Id prefer to go to Nashville.

Supposedly the PAC-10 and Big 12 are predicted to not fill their bowl eligible teams, so those are possibilities as well...although to me, I think the Big 12 will have enough, assuming a 6-6 Big 12 team would go before a 7-5 any other conference team, which Im fairly certain is the case.

11/14/2007 12:35:28 AM

Hoping for charlotte, nashville, orlando...in that order. Got a place to stay at all three...wolfpack fans will be in full force at all three. Lets just win this weekend first though! I am already scared.

11/14/2007 1:31:54 AM

Quote :

"Virginia Tech....5-1, 8-1 (Miami, @ Virginia"

how did nobody point out that tech has 2 losses

11/14/2007 9:33:38 AM

Barring no upsets here is how the ACC will finish out

1)VT(10-2, 7-1)
2)CLEMSON(10-2, 5-3)

Winner of that game to go to BCS Bowl and loser to the Peach...then

3)UVA(9-3, 6-2)<----Gator Bowl (THEY WOULD ONLY BE IN THIRD REGARDLESS OF THEIR CONFERENCE RECORD BECAUSE THEY DIDN"T PLAY IN THE ACC CHAMPIONSHIP)
4)BC(9-3, 5-3)
5)NCSU(7-5, 5-3)
6)Wake(6-6, 4-4)
7)GT(7-5, 4-4)
8)FSU(7-5, 4-4)

If the season were to end today, here are the bowl games we would choose from and our portential opponents:

1) Champs Sports (VS Penn State or Wisconsin)
2) Music City (VS Kentucky/South Carolina/Alabama)
3) Emerald Bowl (VS Oregon State or USC)
4) Car Care (VS WVU/Cincinnati/Pitt)
5)Humanatarian (VS Boise State/Fresno State)

Music City has our name written all over it................

11/14/2007 1:51:24 PM

^^
Good catch

^
I believe Wake is favored over us, although what you have is a reasonable prediction.

11/14/2007 1:57:36 PM

I would love to go to Nashville and play one of those 3 you mentioned.

11/14/2007 2:03:39 PM

I just want to go to a Bowl where we stand a good chance of winning....

Can we actually beat Kentucky/.South Carolina/ Alabama if we do go to Music City?

11/14/2007 2:08:28 PM

Quote :

"so is it called Peach or Chick-fil-a Bowl? seriously, i'm tired of being wrong every other year."

It SHOULD be called the Peach Bowl.

11/14/2007 2:10:23 PM

^^UNC gave South Carolina a game. Alabama is playing pretty bad now. Kentucky is too up and down.

No doubt we would be underdogs against all 3, but wouldn't that play to our advantage?

11/14/2007 2:23:56 PM

over on statefans, there is a big discussion that if the following three things happen, we have a good shot at the gator:

1) We win out
2) BC loses to Clemson
3) VT beats UVA

Kinda hard to believe, but they seem to be making the numbers/logic work.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=178#s=178&f=2515&t=1137270&p=5

11/14/2007 2:32:27 PM

Yeah,

I screwed the prediction up a little bit. We have a legitimate shot at GATOR

IF CU beats BC
and VT beats UVA
and we win out

standings
UVA 6-2
State 5-3
BC 5-3

According to the rules the Gator would have the choice between those 3 teams and our 6 game winning streak, and our win against UVA, might propel us to the front and we head to Jacksonville. Don't pack your bags yet...but be prepared

11/14/2007 2:42:33 PM

PP was talking about us possibly making the gator two days ago. man, that would be somethin.

11/14/2007 2:44:01 PM

Just like state fans, have a teeny bit of success and start dreaming about the impossible.

11/14/2007 2:58:43 PM

DARE TO DREAM!!!1

11/14/2007 2:59:28 PM

DARE TO DREAM!!!1

11/14/2007 3:02:24 PM

Let's just win against wake...then I can dream. Man I can't believe we are even talking this but we shall see!!!

11/14/2007 11:20:14 PM