I think someone mentioned in another thread that the projections for growth were still moderately positive. Yellen, today reiterated that tighten credit conditions would cause those forecasts to be revised downward.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22085761

This is the typical pattern of Fed and Treasury updates. Even when we "know" that a rough patch is coming the forecasts are revised downward in a step like fashion. This is partly a product of the models, which change everytime a new data point is entered. However, it also an attempt by officials not to be overly alarmist, since radicially lowered forecasts from the government could tip finanical markets which in and of itself will be harmful to growth.

12/4/2007 11:28:51 AM

wat?

12/5/2007 8:46:05 PM

Way to bump this thread back to the top genius.

12/5/2007 11:53:02 PM

There was a debate over the "impressiveness" of the US economy, in which people argued about the likelihood of a recession.

Someone stated that recession was not likely because the Treasury and Fed forecasts of growth still had us out of the negative. My point, however, is that leading into a recession Treasury and Fed forecasts typically show slow but positive growth.

However, the Fed signals that risks are to the downside in speeches, as Fed President Janet Yellen did the other day.

12/6/2007 2:52:43 PM