My picks have been (since the start of this junk) Ron Paul on the Republican side and Obama on the democrat side.

And you know, most of my friends support the same or similar candidates. Only generally my 30-something friends tend to go for Hillary or conform to the national opinion more than I do.

Thus, I found this facebook thing interesting:



There really is not better sample of internet-literate young people then a facebook poll.


My question:
Why the hell do you all think the same as I do? And what is it about staying the course in Iraq, the traditional Republican rhetoric, and Hillary Clinton that helps the old people so disproportionately?

1/6/2008 2:45:15 PM

i find your ideas intriguing and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter

1/6/2008 3:43:34 PM

Well there are problems with each of the polls in that image:

1 - The facebook poll is unscientific, even if you are just measuring young people (ie facebook users) because it only counts the votes of people who actively choose to use that application. Almost every online poll is this way and is thus inherently unreliable.

2 - The traditional ABC poll is probably scientific, however it doesnt account for the fact that alot of people now do not have landline phones (they can't call cell phones for the same reason telemarketers can't), and they do tend to be younger people. Sooner or later the traditional pollsters are going to have to figure out a solution for this.


and, of course, certain people in certain states have more say in the primary then others (ours is may 6th and the race will be over by then, versus Iowa, NH, or states on super tuesday)

1/6/2008 3:52:37 PM

younger people dont have as big of a problem with negroes as older people

1/6/2008 4:21:28 PM

mrfrog,

It's an old story. The old once took over the world from the generation that preceded them, thinking them idiots. They do things their own way and their views harden.

Then, their children one day are old enough to think for themselves and try to clamor for their own voice, thinking that the views of their parents are misguided, incorrect, and start to speak out against them.

I hate to use the phrase generational conflict, but that's what it is pretty much. Someday our generation will be in power and our children will think we are idiots. It's a part of the cycle of time.

[Edited on January 6, 2008 at 4:43 PM. Reason : .]

1/6/2008 4:42:43 PM

Younger people also like to follow things to be cool and often don't know what the hell they're talking about.

ZOMG RON PAUL IS AWESOME!!!

Really what can you tell me about him?

HE HAS A BLIMP!!!

1/6/2008 5:44:49 PM

but he does have a blimp!



ZOMG!

1/6/2008 6:09:09 PM

I'd vote for a guy with a blimp.

1/6/2008 6:12:43 PM

Most people are philosophically inconsistent, so their political views will change as they age.

1/6/2008 6:32:05 PM

^ mhum


http://www.salon.com/comics/opus/2007/11/18/opus/

1/6/2008 7:07:15 PM

^ now that's funny

1/6/2008 9:36:18 PM

Interesting how young conservatives prefer Libertarian Ron Paul while young progressives go for big gov't Obama. Pretty wide chasm there.

1/6/2008 10:39:09 PM

It seems more like young people are going for, as a whole and regardless of party, the candidates that are perceived to have the most integrity/honesty/least degree of corruption. I don't have poll numbers or anything to back it up (as though they'd be reliable anyway), but ask the average college student who follows politics and there's a good chance they'll think that Obama, being younger, is less corrupt than other candidates of his party, and Paul has his past voting record to show that he votes out of principle above most other things.

1/6/2008 11:34:04 PM

Paul has no chance.....sub the old guy McCain for Paul and you might be golden...really will be old old old(McCain) vs Bill Clinton Part 2...i mean Obama...

all the online Polls have been constantly skewed for Paul....just like we would do when NC State was in there. He doesnt have a chance...his numbers are staying the same(flat line)

[Edited on January 6, 2008 at 11:37 PM. Reason : w]

1/6/2008 11:35:37 PM

^^ I'm not sure that's the case, at least it doesn't explain the democrat numbers.

It's also interesting that the republicans are much more spread out, in Facebook, and the real poll.

But, I would think for Facebook at least, they perceive Obama as being "cooler" having admitted to doing coke, and embracing net neutrality and updated copyright laws.

For the republicans, i'm guessing its split between the let-me-smoke-pot-Ron-Paul types and the people who are swayed by chuck Norris.

1/6/2008 11:46:32 PM

Oh, I agree, Paul has no chance to be the republican candidate in the general election. I think he might end up winning New Hampshire, but given that it's largely independent/third party, he won't gain much ground anywhere else.

McCain is far more likely than Paul, but a lot of younger people have been a bit turned off by his pre-presidential-run support of Bush and the Iraq War, without thinking about his policies in the 2000 election and the fact that he'd likely return to more moderate and intelligent policies after he was done trying to get the nod from the far right.

1/6/2008 11:49:20 PM

I am just wondering when it comes down to it can Obama really beat whoever Republican is....it will be interesting to see. It looks more and more like Obama will beat Clinton(maybe by double digits) in NH, he will probably carry SC also....then it comes to Super Tuesday. If Clinton loses, it will be the first time in a long time that either Clinton lost a political contest.

I think if she does loose, she will set her eyes on Majority Leader in the Senate.

1/6/2008 11:55:43 PM

I think Obama could easily beat Romney or Guiliani. I think Huckabee would be a difficult fight for Obama, but with Obama still having a slight edge. If he had his own Karl Rove, he would dominate Huckabee. Huckabee, IMO, is not very smart, and should be easily able to be mocked.

1/7/2008 12:00:26 AM

Quote :

"It seems more like young people are going for, as a whole and regardless of party, the candidates that are perceived to have the most integrity/honesty/least degree of corruption. I don't have poll numbers or anything to back it up (as though they'd be reliable anyway), but ask the average college student who follows politics and there's a good chance they'll think that Obama, being younger, is less corrupt than other candidates of his party, and Paul has his past voting record to show that he votes out of principle above most other things."

ah, corruption, that might be a good way to draw the line. Old people are less worried about the government going corrupt as long as they can get their SS check?


Really, the way I've always looked at this perpetual generational conflict is that old people like to tell people what to do, thus more republicans. Also, old people want a bigger government, because they feel that the government needs to take care of them.

1/7/2008 12:12:40 AM

Quote :

"Paul has his past voting record to show that he votes out of principle above most other things"

Not consistent principles from what I can tell.

1/7/2008 2:44:02 AM

Quote :

"1 - The facebook poll is unscientific, even if you are just measuring young people (ie facebook users) because it only counts the votes of people who actively choose to use that application. Almost every online poll is this way and is thus inherently unreliable."

exactly

if i see mike gravel on any poll, i vote for him.

1/7/2008 8:44:36 AM