The consensus seems to be that most high school to NBA players end up like Kwame Brown and turn out to be busts, while stars like Lebron are the rare exception, but is this really true? I don't recall some of the high school players that were busts (probably because they were busts) but some of the best players in the league right now are straight from high school:

Kobe Bryant
Kevin Garnett
Tracy McGrady
Amare Stoudamire

and you also have some very solid players straight from high school like JR Smith, Al Harrington

so is it more of a 50/50 split or are there still a lot more high school busts?

5/8/2008 2:41:20 PM

Moses Malone ftw



[Edited on May 8, 2008 at 3:01 PM. Reason : asdf]

5/8/2008 2:52:58 PM

yeah he was the pioneer

5/8/2008 2:53:21 PM

There used to be a lot of high schoolers who were not drafted near the top, so they were not as visible. I think the view is that these guys really could have used some time in college to be better prepared for the NBA. It's not necessarily that they are huge busts, it's just that some time in college probably would have made them more suited for an NBA roster. The guys you listed were all drafted very high and were obviously ready, but there are plenty of high schoolers who were good enough to get drafted somewhere based on potential, but would have been better suited with more preparation.

5/8/2008 2:54:53 PM

Quote :

"The consensus seems to be that most high school to NBA players end up like Kwame Brown and turn out to be busts, while stars like Lebron are the rare exception"

This statement is in no way a consensus.

5/8/2008 2:55:50 PM

the 1 year rule is the worst thing to happen to the college system and these kid's futures

i think it was a terrible move on the NBA's part from a macro perspective

5/8/2008 2:56:10 PM

1996
Kobe Bryant
Jermaine O'Neal

1997
Tracy McGrady

1998
Al Harrington
Korleone Young
Rashard Lewis

1999
Johnathan Bender
Leon Smith

5/8/2008 2:57:47 PM

Here are the high school kids from 04 and 05. Form your own opinion

2004

Dwight Howard SW Atlanta Christian Academy (Ga.)
Shaun Livingston Peoria Central HS (Ill.)
Robert Swift Bakersfield HS (Calif.)
Sebastian Telfair Abraham Lincoln HS (N.Y.)
Al Jefferson Prentiss HS (Miss.)
J.R. Smith St. Benedict’s Prep (N.J.)
Dorell Wright Leuzinger HS (Calif.)

2005

Martell Webster, Seattle Prep HS
Andrew Bynum, St. Joseph (NJ) HS
Gerald Green, Gulf Shores Acad (TX)
C.J. Miles, Skyline H.S. (Tex)
Monta Ellis, Lanier H.S. (Miss.)
Louis Williams, South Gwinnett HS (Ga.)
Amir Johnson, Westchester H.S. (Calif.)
Alex Acker, Eisenhower HS (Calif.)

5/8/2008 3:01:16 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prep-to-pro_players

There are plenty of HS busts. However, there are obviously a decent that turn out great like the ones you mentioned. Keep in mind they were drafted out of HS for a reason.

All Star Level Players
--------------------
Kevin Garnett
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Amare Stoudamire
Tracy McGrady
Dwight Howard
Jermaine O'Neal

Starters and Good Role Players
------------------------------
JR Smith
Al Harrington
Josh Smith
Stephen Jackson
Rashard Lewis
Tyson Chandler
Darius Miles
Al Jefferson
DeShawn Stevenson
Kendrick Perkins
Monta Ellis
Andrew Bynum

Busts (maybe a couple too early to tell)
--------------------------------------
Kwame Brown
Eddy Curry
DeSagana Diop
Travis Outlaw
Shaun Livingston
Robert Swift
Sebastian Telfair
Martrell Webster
Leon Smith
Korleone Young
Ousmane Cisse
Ndudi Ebi
James Lang
Dorell Wright
Gerald Green
CJ Miles
Louis Williams
Amir Johnson


Many of these were not lottery picks, but which list is longer? Maybe 1/3 of the highly drafted HS players are worth their pick, but a number of them are superstars. Of course, there are plenty of college busts as well, especially those drafted on "potential".


[Edited on May 8, 2008 at 3:10 PM. Reason : .]

5/8/2008 3:02:36 PM

Quote :

"This statement is in no way a consensus."

seems to be the consensus to me at least

I think the 1 year rule was good for both the NBA and college ball, but there were a few players here and there who it hurt

5/8/2008 3:03:48 PM

2000
Darius Miles
DeShawn Stevenson

2001
Kwame Brown
Tyson Chandler
Eddy Curry
Desangana Diop
Ousmane Cisse

2002
Amare Stoudamire

2003
LeBron James
Travis Outlaw
Ndudi Ebi
Kendrik Perkins
James Lang

2004
Dwight Howard
Shaun Livingston
Robert Swift
Sebastian Telfair
Al Jefferson
Josh Smith
J.R. Smith
Dorell Wright

2005
Martell Webster
Andrew Bynum
Gerald Green
Amir Johnson
Andray Blatche
Louis Williams
Monta Ellis
Ricky Sanchez
C.J. Miles

5/8/2008 3:07:32 PM

^^^a lot of the guys you listed under "Busts" aren't busts at all...maybe if your definition of bust is that they aren't all stars, but some of them are pretty good contributors

[Edited on May 8, 2008 at 3:09 PM. Reason : .]

5/8/2008 3:08:37 PM

Also, you could make a strong argument that even the great ones, except perhaps LeBron, would have benefited from a year in college (most of them took some time to develop). Of course, I'd personally rather see an either/or HS or 2 year rule.

5/8/2008 3:09:43 PM

Are there not a lot of 4-year college busts as well? At the end of the day, I wonder if the issue isn't age as much as it is that 0.01% that are going to become stars is smaller than the number of people who think they are destined to become stars.

I think it would be much more interesting to look at draft position over the last 20 years and see if there's any correlation between pick position and success at the NBA level though you would need to control for team, playing style, unforeseeable road blocks (a la Len Bias), etc.

5/8/2008 3:10:02 PM

^^^I certainly could have added a list for "journeymen" and "jury's out", but figured that would be too much.

5/8/2008 3:26:23 PM

I'd venture to say that there is a higher percentage of 4-year college players that are "busts" (non-contributers) than high school players. Which makes sense considering that if you're going to jump from high school to NBA you're probably going to have more skills on average than the guy who stayed in school for four years because he couldn't have gotten drafted at an earlier point (notable exceptions like Duncan).

5/8/2008 3:33:01 PM

I would like to see a correlation chart done between time spent in college, draft position, and productivity.

Certianly four year players are usually not as good as straight out of HS or one year players, but they aren't usually as talented and are taken later also.

5/8/2008 4:13:43 PM

Shawn Kemp was pretty good

5/8/2008 4:27:04 PM

i think he went to a community college for a year...Trinity Valley maybe

5/8/2008 4:32:04 PM

He enrolled there but couldn't play on the team I think

5/8/2008 4:52:32 PM

Shawn Kemp is the first one that I was ever aware of that went straight from high school

5/8/2008 5:06:33 PM

Moses Malone was the first I know of

5/8/2008 5:10:48 PM

These lists fail to give the names of the players who entered the draft & were not drafted....for what that's worth

5/8/2008 6:15:36 PM

^yeah i think thats another one of the reasons that i cant think of as many busts, although at the same time, there are college players who leave early and dont get drafted powelol

5/8/2008 6:41:44 PM

^there are also players who leave college early, are lottery picks, and bust

there are 5th year seniors who bust, all american sophmores who leave early that bust & high school players who jumped to the pros that bust

I'm a firm believer that there is not a lot of discrepancy talent-wise between a vast majority of nba players (yes, I know the kobe is on another level than tony allen, but I'm talking generally)...thus I think what separates the busts from the serviceable players, or even being able to get to the level of an allstar, is work ethic, dedication and maturity

5/8/2008 6:48:17 PM

because I was bored...

Pick # in parentheses
Bold denotes All Star


1995
(5) Kevin Garnett


1996
(13) Kobe Bryant
(17)Jermaine O'Neal


1997
(9) Tracy McGrady


1998
(25) Al Harrington
(32) Rashard Lewis


1999
(5) Jonathan Bender
(29) Leon Smith


2000
(3) Darius Miles
(23) DeShawn Stevenson


2001
(2) Tyson Chandler
(4) Eddy Curry
(8) DeSagana Diop
(47) Ousmane Cisse


2002
(9) Amare Stoudemire


2003
(1) LeBron James
(23) Travis Outlaw
(26) Ndudi Ebi
(27) Kendrick Perkins
(48) James Lang


2004
(1) Dwight Howard
(4) Shaun Livingston
(12) Robert Swift
(13) Sebastian Telfair
(15) Al Jefferson
(17) Josh Smith
(18) J.R. Smith
(19) Dorell Wright


2005
(6) Martell Webster
(10) Andrew Bynum
(18) Gerald Green
(34) C. J. Miles
(40) Monta Ellis
(45) Louis Williams
(49) Andray Blatche
(56) Amir Johnson

5/8/2008 7:13:24 PM

36 total picked, 8 were All Stars (~22%)

definitely a higher percentage of All Stars in this group than the remainder of College/overseas players picked

5/8/2008 7:17:14 PM

how about comparing results from a single HS class? see how players who went to college are performing vs. those who didn't. typically, it was the guys who are viewed as the most talented in their HS class who went straight to the pros, but obviously some of them are doing much worse than peers who went for at least one year to college. may be interesting to even just look at the McD AA year by year from 1997-2005 to see how players stack up. anyhow, i'm too lazy to do it, but i think it would be the best apples-to-apples comparison

^ i think the years before 1998 should be discounted - prior to '98 going straight to the league was a rare occurence, and the guys who did it were clearly above and beyond the talent of the rest of their HS classes. same could be said for lebron and dwight howard. real question is "are the guys who were not the top one or two in their class better off skipping college?"

[Edited on May 8, 2008 at 7:31 PM. Reason : .]

5/8/2008 7:23:32 PM