...at Pacific Ethanol, whose stock has fallen from about $15 to about $3. Pacific Ethanol's gross margin dropped from 11 percent in 2006 to 7.1 percent in 2007 partly because of higher corn costs. Aventine Renewable's one-year chart shows a precipitous fall in stock price from $20 to $4. And a Wall Street analyst recently noted that it faced a potential cash shortfall. When it reported quarterly earnings last week, Aventine said that its average sales price per gallon rose from the first quarter of 2007 enough but not enough to outweigh the rise in corn. And thanks to the high price of energy (it takes energy to produce energy), the cost of converting corn into ethanol rose more than 10 percent per gallon during the same time period. So, between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, Aventine's operating margins shrunk from about 6.5 percent of sales to 4.7 percent of sales. And MGP Ingredients said profit margins in its distillery products unit fell to 2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, down from 22 percent in the final quarter of 2006.

The U.S. industry has grown from 3.4 billion gallons of capacity in 2004 to 6.5 billion in 2007. Today, some 134 plants with a capacity of 7.23 billion gallons are in operation, and another 77 with 6.2 billion gallons of capacity are under construction. Capacity has more than doubled since 2004, and, once all the plants in the works are completed, it will nearly double again. But with demand for gasoline declining nationwide, and with ethanol an imperfect substitute for gasoline (not all vehicles can use it; the distribution network isn't fully built out), producers aren't always able to dictate prices to the marketplace.

As for the bottom line, processors and distributors of agricultural commodities—from Kraft to Morton's Steakhouse—are being pinched by rising costs of grains and energy, tough competition, and softened demand stemming from the weakening economy. These factors are shrinking margins at every rung of the food-processing business. Ethanol producers are no different than cookie-makers and restaurants in this regard. After all, their biggest inputs include an agricultural commodity (corn) and energy.

While environmentalists have warned that the rapid growth of ethanol posed a danger to sustainability, the alarm may be somewhat misplaced. Oil has topped $122 a barrel and could be heading to $150. But the ethanol bubble has already popped. The recent poor results from ethanol producers is far more likely to hinder further development than any change in government policy.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190878/

5/8/2008 10:12:02 PM

why not try hemp seed oil for bio-diesel and hemp cellulose for ethanol?

wait no, I forgot -- legal hemp would send the wrong message to kids

[Edited on May 8, 2008 at 10:27 PM. Reason : ok ok, enough about hemp -- though, it could significantly help save the planet]

5/8/2008 10:22:22 PM

what about that algae that produces oil?

5/9/2008 12:10:39 AM

switchgrass would be the solution

http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/misc/switgrs.html

5/9/2008 12:13:15 AM

How bout harnessing ocean currents to run turbines?

5/9/2008 1:31:32 AM

^ no, we already have lots of other options to get electricity at 30 cents per kWh

5/9/2008 7:10:48 AM

how bout we outlaw SUV's and make everyone drive toyota prius?

[Edited on May 9, 2008 at 7:12 AM. Reason : that would drive down gas prices a lot at least]

5/9/2008 7:12:19 AM

Well, it takes a around gallon of gasoline to create a gallon ethanol fuel. Gasoline also has a higher heating value than ethanol to begin with....does that answer your question?

5/9/2008 9:30:25 AM

hemp seeds for biofuels makes no sense since there isn't enough lipid content in the hemp to make it worth anyone's time.

5/9/2008 9:47:30 AM

(not an expert on this)


^
really?

Quote :

"Oil content (% of dry weight) – average values Soy 20 Canola/rapeseed 40 Sunflower 55 Castor 45 Safflower 40 Hemp 30 Copra (Dry Coconut) 60 Peanuts/Groundnuts 50 Palm Kernel 50 Corn 7 Mustard 40 Flaxseed 45 Jatropha seed 40 Jatropha kernel 55 Algae 15 to 40 "

from what I understand, the main problem is the [artificially] high price of hemp seed

(as much as three times the cost of most other oil crops)

but the high price is only because we import from canada instead of creating a hemp growing industry in the states

right?

(also, another "minus" is that hemp oil degrades more quickly)

5/9/2008 10:08:13 AM

for the labor put into for growing, harvesting, crushing, and converting hemp seed, the end result is not good.

And those number are wrong. Algae has a higher content than that.

5/9/2008 10:23:17 AM

oh well

(I'd buy a hemp car)

5/9/2008 10:29:11 AM

Algae is the only even conceivable biofuels solution to the gas problem.

But don't hold your breath.

5/9/2008 10:38:36 AM

Algae has it's only problems. Mainly the water content makes deriving the oils harder to do than with rapeseed or soy.

5/9/2008 11:09:35 AM

how do you move ethanol from the refinery to the 'gas' stations? pipelines

oh no wait you cant move ethanol through pipelines, you have to transport it in trucks that run on gasoline

5/9/2008 11:11:13 AM

^Is that because they don't want it mixing with gasoline, or do the physical properties of ethanol prevent it from being moved through pipelines?

5/9/2008 11:14:29 AM

^^those trucks do not run on gasoline, they run on diesel. A problem that could be fixed if they ran on biodiesel.

5/9/2008 11:15:47 AM

^^physical properties i think

^either way, the point is its less efficient to transport over long distances than gasoline, diesel, etc

so when directly comparing gasoline to ethanol and the emissions, etc, you must consider the additional tranport "cost"

5/9/2008 11:23:59 AM

The biofuels industry is being looked at in terms of local production to satisfy local needs, instead of the current system of shipping it all throughout the world.

The reason why oil has relied upon pipelines is that in terms of availablity it is extremely limited geographically. Ethanol and biodiesel production are not.

5/9/2008 11:32:17 AM

5/9/2008 11:49:03 AM

the reason why ethanol is failing is because it is a stupid idea

thank god its happening quickly

5/9/2008 11:49:36 AM

Quote :

"^Is that because they don't want it mixing with gasoline, or do the physical properties of ethanol prevent it from being moved through pipelines?"

Yes, ethanol may corrode pipelines:

http://www.ethanol-news.com/blog/2006/07/07/ethanols-corrosive-little-secret/

Quote :

"A smooth transition to ethanol seems highly unlikely since ethanol has a water affinity problem. That is, it absorbs water. Ethanol corrosion in metal pipes can lead to internal stress cracking and can accelerate damage to weld joints. The damage can be extremely difficult to detect and very costly to repair. Due to ethanol’s corrosive characteristics, production may not be able to meet ethanol demand soon enough."

[Edited on May 9, 2008 at 12:09 PM. Reason : .]

5/9/2008 12:08:24 PM

Quote :

"how bout we outlaw SUV's and make everyone drive toyota prius? [Edited on May 9, 2008 at 7:12 AM. Reason : that would drive down gas prices a lot at least]"

Why don't you go move to China with that totalitarian BS.

5/9/2008 1:52:12 PM

you people have missed the point entirely....by the time you harvest the corn, ship it to the plant, and make it into ethanol, you have already used more gasoline than ethanol produced on a volume basis....and that gallon of ethanol produced will not do as much work as the gallon of gas needed to produce it.

5/9/2008 4:31:55 PM

5/9/2008 5:04:32 PM

Switchgrass does have a much higher energy content than corn, and I've heard several people suggest it as an alternative. It will likely happen in the next 5-6 years and put an ease to high corn prices and biofuel troubles.


But it also has its drawbacks as well. Corn can be dried and stored much easier than switchgrass. There is less volume to deal with as well.

If we 'switch' to switchgrass and sargot and those kind of plants, biofuel manufacturing plants will need to be more in numbers and more spread out, so you don't wind up with high transportation costs. Even then, it's probably not worth it.

5/9/2008 7:02:17 PM

Quote :

"you people have missed the point entirely....by the time you harvest the corn, ship it to the plant, and make it into ethanol, you have already used more gasoline than ethanol produced on a volume basis....and that gallon of ethanol produced will not do as much work as the gallon of gas needed to produce it."

not exactly true.

5/9/2008 8:17:50 PM

Ethanol Producers:

5/9/2008 9:25:45 PM

Biofuels are a great idea... in the way they're implemented in some areas. In parts of japan, recyclers in large cities convert used cooking oil from the insane number of tempura places that change their oil with each frying (if they're good.) The converted biolfuels are locally availible and require minimal shipping from the raw sources, to the manufacturer, to the filling stations. These locally created biolfuels incur less transportation costs than traditional fuels.

You could have small scale production of corn ethanol to fuel the farm equipment at a... farm that grew corn. Smaller scale local development of biofuels-principally from waste products- makes a shit ton more sense than dumping massive amounts of food into the system and pretending it's not more expensive and more polluting in the end.

5/10/2008 12:47:13 AM

stop driving and get a fuckin bike

5/11/2008 5:10:16 PM

Quote :

"the reason why ethanol is failing is because it is a stupid idea thank god its happening quickly"

5/12/2008 5:37:20 PM

Ethanol blend poses challenges for boaters

Quote :

"The problem for boaters is that retailers in North Carolina are not required to post signs on the gas pumps that tell buyers whether or not they are purchasing E-10 gasoline. For most automobiles, ethanol poses no problems other than a slight reduction in engine performance and fuel mileage. Some boats, on the other hand, can have major problems using ethanol. Most of the problems come from the fact that many boats are not used on a regular basis. They may sit for weeks at a time. The ethanol, which is actually alcohol, attracts water, almost like a magnet. It will draw moisture from the air in a fuel tank and fuel delivery system. Alcohol is also a very good solvent, which attacks any impurities that have built up in an older fuel system, freeing them to enter the carburetor or fuel injection systems of marine engines. Once enough impurities and water builds up, engines will not start. Even worse for some boaters is the fact that ethanol is very corrosive and can actually destroy a fiberglass fuel tank, which are also found on many older boats."

http://rrdailyherald.com/articles/2008/07/19/news/news.txt

Factor these costs, too, in the ongoing ethanol saga--foisted upon us by the environmental wackos.

7/20/2008 3:29:15 AM

lol wackos

have you studied what pwcs and 2 stroke boats do to the environment?

you might as well just pour gasoline and oil into your local waterway

7/20/2008 3:38:23 AM

there are more four strokes afloat now than two strokes, but don't let that deter you from your argument

marine engine manufacturers have been pushed throughout the 90's and 00's to produce clean burning engines

and so, Evinrude has been producing their E-Tec 2 strokes for a few years now and it's an amazing motor that runs clean
http://www.evinrude.com/en-US/

Mercury also has their optimax line of 2 strokes which burn clean as well
http://www.mercurymarine.com/engines/outboards/optimax/

in addition, the ethanol is messing up a lot of the four strokes in addition to the older engines (there was a big article in NC sportsman magazine a few months ago about it)


but you're not advocating the use of ethanol anyway are you...cause I thought that was already determined to be a waste of resources which is causing problems worldwide



[Edited on July 20, 2008 at 8:45 AM. Reason : !]

7/20/2008 8:32:03 AM

Ethanol = so dumb

The only method that has proven to be cost effective without subsidies is Brazilian sugar cane -- which we have huge quotas/tariffs on.

Awesome. Go USA.

7/20/2008 4:42:50 PM

b/c corn is the wrong fucking thing to make it from


switchgrass ftmfw, you can grow that shit anywhere.

[Edited on July 21, 2008 at 12:30 AM. Reason : ^ not for long, bone up on your trade info.... WTO ruling not in our favor...]

7/21/2008 12:27:34 AM

Quote :

"While environmentalists have warned that the rapid growth of ethanol posed a danger to sustainability, the alarm may be somewhat misplaced. Oil has topped $122 a barrel and could be heading to $150. But the ethanol bubble has already popped. The recent poor results from ethanol producers is far more likely to hinder further development than any change in government policy."

If the environmentalist were listened to though, this issue could have been avoided all together. You wouldn't have the rise in food prices world wide, or the millions wasted in investigating what people knew was a bad technology. I guess though, like children, some people need to touch the fire to know its hot.

7/21/2008 1:51:51 AM

I think people knew. This is just a for votes in mid-america. Also, it sounds great that were going to alternative fuels. I mean, right? People are morons and politics will always be shady. Nothing to do about it though.

7/21/2008 2:02:49 AM

Quote :

"The only method that has proven to be cost effective without subsidies is Brazilian sugar cane -- which we have huge quotas/tariffs on."

totally agree. I'm not sure if the sugar cane is carbon effective or not. But I did a bunch of research on ethanol for a final paper last semester. Ethanol is a total sham because:
1. We use corn basically because of the industry's lobbying efforts in the 70's. Again, our government is artifically supporting corn with subsidies as well as tariffs on sugar cane.
2. Not only is the harvesting and production of ethanol from corn counterproductive in terms of carbon emissions, it can not be transported via pipeline. This means that even more carbon is emitted trasporting it to the pumps.
3. While ethanol burns cleaner, it is less efficient than gasoline.

The simplest solution is to raise gas mileage standards in vehicles. The technology has been here for years. I saw an electric car on that ESPN auction show that was made in the 40's or something.
This ethanol shit is just another way for the government to sidestep the issue and keep their love affair with the oil companies rolling.

7/21/2008 10:33:39 AM

Quote :

"lol wackos have you studied what pwcs and 2 stroke boats do to the environment? you might as well just pour gasoline and oil into your local waterway"

Scuba Steve

Is your position that PWCs and two-cycle engines should be banned? In addition, have you studied what these craft do for the environment? The economy? Transportation? Water safety? National security? Just to name a few.

STFU.

7/21/2008 11:48:38 PM

Some guys bass boat really does wonders for National Security.

Also, the folks complaining about biofuels sound like the livery industry complaining about the automobile.

[Edited on July 22, 2008 at 10:31 AM. Reason : .]

7/22/2008 10:27:36 AM

Quote :

"b/c corn is the wrong fucking thing to make it from switchgrass ftmfw, you can grow that shit anywhere. "

Unless some crazy shit has happened I don't know about they still need a huge amount breakthroughs to get enzyme production cheap enough to do the cellulose to ethanol conversion. Novozymes is working on such a thing. If you could use the cellulose in corn as well it wouldn't be all bad either and sugar cane would be even better because you could use the waste.

7/22/2008 10:36:45 AM

Why not just have nuclear powered cars?

http://www.teslamotors.com

7/22/2008 10:37:40 AM

tesla roadster

7/22/2008 10:44:59 AM