Who's gonna win, and whats the electoral count gonna be? (rough, improbable guesses allowed)

if you wanna post something backing your crazy ass predictions feel free.

for reference: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

10/27/2008 10:49:52 PM

Winner: Obama

Electoral Vote Count: At least 270

10/27/2008 10:51:55 PM

Obama. 324.

10/27/2008 10:52:20 PM

McCain


Hey, a man can dream.

10/27/2008 10:54:19 PM

McCain

Dewey Defeats Truman

10/27/2008 11:07:24 PM

Obama 311

10/27/2008 11:33:15 PM

I GOT THE BLACK DUDE

BY A LOT

10/28/2008 12:10:46 AM

The Muslim 301 - 237.

I think most of the Bush states come home by Nov 4th. Undecideds will likely break for McCain. NC breaks obama on black turnout

10/28/2008 1:35:30 AM

I have:

Obama - 306

California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, DC

McCain - 232
Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

[Edited on October 28, 2008 at 2:09 AM. Reason : Bolded for readability ]

10/28/2008 2:07:14 AM

McCain ain't winning New Mexico.

Of course, the fact that you put Hawaii on the Djinn Machine's side makes me think you aren't serious.

10/28/2008 2:19:25 AM

McCain: 18

Alabama, Idaho, Utah


Obama: 515

everything else

10/28/2008 2:21:21 AM

^ McCain doesn't even get his home state?

10/28/2008 2:24:17 AM

^probably, but BARELY
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/arizona.html

Obama: 313



He may really get VA, since it's leaning pretty heavily at this point, but I'm trying to be kind of conservative about this. What I'd love to really see:



[Edited on October 28, 2008 at 11:22 AM. Reason : ,]

10/28/2008 11:20:12 AM

At this point, Obama's floor is 286 EVs. It's almost inconceivable he gets less than that. That's Kerry states + IA, CO, NM, and VA. I'm gonna guess he also wins Ohio and Nevada and gets to 311 EVs.

His ceiling however could be as high as 375, if he wins every state that is currently leaning dem or a tossup. Should be a fun November 4th if you're a dem.

10/28/2008 12:21:38 PM

ALWAYS

BET

ON

BLACK

10/28/2008 12:26:06 PM

Ron Paul.

10/28/2008 12:26:29 PM

I have Ohio Florida breaking McCain and Virgina and North Carolina breaking Obama. Currently more Democratic African-Americans have voted in NC than all Republicans.

I don't think you can overestimate the power of black turnout for Obama or Evangelical turnout for Sarah Palin. The panhandle of Florida and Southern Ohio go bright red.

10/28/2008 1:54:28 PM

Quote :

"The panhandle of Florida and Southern Ohio go bright red."

Yes, i just got back from visiting my grandmother in NW florida, between Tallahassee and Pensacola, and the McCain yard and road signs outnumbered Obama at least 10 to 1

10/28/2008 2:03:17 PM

when i was out voting yesterday in GA - I was outnumbered 50:1 / black:white - I think GA might actually go D due to the sheer # of people wanting to "be a part of history"

10/28/2008 2:13:18 PM

^ That would be huge if it happened.

10/28/2008 2:15:58 PM

10/28/2008 2:21:39 PM

Nostradamus set the year 2012 as the end of the world. The Mayan calendar comes to an end in 2012. Obama's presidency would end in 2012.

10/28/2008 3:25:31 PM

Nostradamus set the year 2012 as the end of the world. The Mayan calendar comes to an end in 2012. McCain's presidency would end in 2012.

10/28/2008 3:54:24 PM

In another thread that talked about the Bradley effect about two weeks ago, I said this:

Quote :

"And that's only in the popular vote. Let's break it down to state level. If we give every state where Obama has less than a 5 point lead to John McCain, the Democrats win 275-263. It's a small margin and crude statistics, but that's still after handing McCain an enormous number of voters who lied in the polls.* I used http://www.electoral-vote.com as my guide for convenience and gave every state that wasn't at least "Weak Dem" to McCain to come up with that, in case there's some flaw with that logic you'd like to point out. "

Now, with new polling numbers, if we take the same circumstances (people saying they're going to vote Obama in order not to seem racist), it looks like 306-232 in favor of Obama. Realistically I think it will be a wider gap.

10/28/2008 3:58:32 PM

There is now way Indiana is going for Obama for whoever predicted that up there.....

They have voted Republican since the beginning of time.

10/28/2008 5:00:04 PM

new gallup polls today says 49-47 overall... of course that doesnt matter any lol

they key is ohio and pa... if mccain can pull an upset (lots of people are saying its a lot closer in PA than many suggest) in PA, hes got a shot

10/28/2008 6:47:28 PM

Quote :

"There is now way Indiana is going for Obama for whoever predicted that up there..... They have voted Republican since the beginning of time. "

you never know

10/28/2008 6:49:06 PM

DRUDGE JUST UPDATED



[Edited on October 28, 2008 at 6:50 PM. Reason : REWR REWR RWER]

10/28/2008 6:49:46 PM

10/28/2008 6:50:24 PM

10/28/2008 6:50:56 PM

wha?

10/28/2008 6:53:34 PM

itd be nice if obama fucked up one good time like biden has twenty times, but of course he gets a free pass (biden that is)

10/28/2008 6:57:59 PM

^

10/28/2008 7:03:21 PM

Obama 312
McCain 223

[Edited on October 28, 2008 at 7:49 PM. Reason : asdfgas]

10/28/2008 7:48:22 PM

Drudge has become a running gag over at 538.

10/28/2008 7:51:47 PM

The chart of NC poll numbers looks like a penis...I guess NC really is going to fuck McCain.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html

10/29/2008 9:00:07 AM

Obama is going to get at least 353, the only 364 if Missouri goes blue. It's the only one I'm unsure about.

Here's the thing though...Obama just needs to win the same states Kerry did (which he's expected to) and add on Virginia and one more (any of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa) and its done.

10/29/2008 9:07:42 AM

So I really don't follow polls and am fairly ignorant about the subject but I have seen NC as a toss up. Anyone have any insight into which way you think it will swing?

I'd love to see it go blue but I'm not getting my hopes up

10/29/2008 11:46:38 AM

Currently, the polls say it will be very close but that the number of newly registered democrats, minorities, and young people may just put it over the edge.

We'll see.

10/29/2008 12:10:27 PM

Welcome our new President!

10/29/2008 12:20:14 PM

dude, seriously?

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/phone.asp

10/29/2008 12:24:37 PM

I think I'm going to go with the total predicted on Intrade.

http://www.intrade.com/

Obama: 364
McCain: 174

Also, the 50 shares of "Obama will be President" I bought at $1.12 a share are at about $9.10 now. NC and Missouri futures still offer about a 3:2 and 2:1 potential payoff if you choose the correct contract.

11/3/2008 10:02:47 PM

Obama 329
McCain 209

[Edited on November 4, 2008 at 1:31 AM. Reason : adf]

11/4/2008 1:28:55 AM

Socialists: 306
Fascists: 232

11/4/2008 1:37:00 AM

Obama > McCain

11/4/2008 1:41:34 AM

Obama 356 - 182

11/4/2008 9:04:29 AM

11/4/2008 9:33:52 AM

So I'm closest without going over. Does that mean I go onto the showcase round, Bob?

11/4/2008 11:57:44 PM