http://www.myprops.org/content/Jim-Cramers-2009-Predictions-vs-Actual/?link=reddit

4/15/2009 9:37:06 PM

So, does this little "analysis" have a control to compare this guy's performance to? Doesn't look like he did any worse than what anyone did during the last year or so. Are we supposed to be outraged? (Maybe I missed it, but when were these predictions made?)

Not to defend the douchebag, but the blog there is sub-college work. I guess you are trying to troll by posting this junk

4/15/2009 10:13:11 PM

also not to defend Cramer, but we're barely 1/4 of the way through 2009, right?

4/15/2009 10:15:19 PM

is a 20% gain in a year this common on the stock market?


I was under the impression that it was a pretty big deal to make a 20% gain in a year (Obviously depends on the type of company) but he predicted a bunch of them to do so.

4/15/2009 10:22:04 PM

20% doesn't seem out of the question given the stocks that are on the list there and their 2008 closing prices.


[Edited on April 15, 2009 at 10:38 PM. Reason : .]

4/15/2009 10:35:48 PM

yeah, especially given the large falls in 2008, a 20% rebound for lots of companies would be expected.

You're probably confusing it with overall stock-market or index gains. It would be very unusual to see a whole index rise 20% (or fall 20%, but it's not unheard of, as we've seen recently....) but there are lots of companies that will make plenty of gains/losses of that magnitude

4/15/2009 10:42:29 PM

Quote :

"Are we supposed to be outraged?"

No.

Quote :

"also not to defend Cramer, but we're barely 1/4 of the way through 2009, right?"

Quote :

"Granted the year is less than 1/4 over, but for fun let's take a look at Jim Cramer's predictions for Dow Jones Industrial Average components in 2009:"

4/15/2009 10:48:23 PM

Jim Cramer is there to provide an "entertaining" platform to teach your avg chump american basics in stocks and to make guesstimate picks. I highly doubt he has some hidden agenda to misguide viewers nor do i think he is the expert in stock advice. For many the cut and dry bland stock shows/books are to boring or complicated for Billy Bob investor. Jim's advice if not perfect but is better than ignorant stock gambles or a "recommendation" from your work buddy. You can not expect every pick he makes to be right especially considering the downward trend of the market end of 2008 and 2009.

He even explicitly tells you that you need to do your own homework and he should not be a crux for all your stock moves.

I like Jim Cramer and watch his show personally but do take his advice with a grain of salt. Having watched the show for over a year some things he has predicted (although I could hear the same prediction elsewhere) came true. Such as a crash of the insurance industry (AIG) following the housing bubble burst and bank failures.

On the other hand i invested in a recommended stock (AGU) during the commodities ramp up which than lost halved in value during the stock market downfall Q1 2009.

4/15/2009 11:46:52 PM

I find Cramer and, more so, his company (thestreet.com) to be more or less random advice. His philosophy on investing generally just isn't very clear, it's some odd combination of "technical" analysis (i.e. the stock picking equivalent of astrology with a dash of numerology and egotism), and fundamentals analysis, and ... well, whatever is in Cramer's head. Frankly I think the guy's biggest advantage in the market is the fact that he obviously knows every listing on every major exchange by heart (not a bad tactic, I might add).

The best irony was the article a few days ago on thestreet about Goldman Sachs's earnings report, which amounted to saying that GS makes (or doesn't make) money through mysterious means, and so while it's probably a safe bet, one has to take into account the voodoo that underlies the sausage factory. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black ...

4/15/2009 11:58:46 PM

ya Cramer is a market mover.

Overall i think Cramer tries to encourage people to take on a fundamentalist approach to make investments for the long term. A good investor though knows how to use both techniquies.

I for example use fundamentalist techniques to pick good companies but use technical techniques to decide when i want to buy or sell.

[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 12:21 AM. Reason : l]

4/16/2009 12:20:30 AM

I'm not much of a cramer fan at all, but the 2009 price is from March 6, which would be all of those stocks at nearly their lowest levels in a very long time. I'm almost tempted and have enough time on my hands to recalculate the numbers from today, I bet his average goes from -36% down to -10% down or better.

4/16/2009 6:56:54 AM

Quote :

"I bet his average goes from -36% down to -10% down or better."

hah, I pulled that out of my ass, but it was actually really accurate.

So I did compute it with yesterdays close, by doing this, he is only down 10.5% YTD. This is still worse than S&P which was down 5.67% YTD as of yesterday. However, if you take C out of the picture because they are clearly the weakest of the big banks and was generally a stupid pick, then he improves by 1.8%, still worse than the S&P.

Still, I bet this picture looks really different in a few months if we make any sort of recovery as all he has really done is pick some of the classically solid big cap companies. We'd have good reason to believe AA, JNJ, and CAT would do really well once we start to turn the corner.

Keep in mind, these companies also pay dividends in the .5-2% range which will make the return come a little closer to the S&P.


[Edited on April 16, 2009 at 9:01 AM. Reason : .]

4/16/2009 9:01:02 AM

Early March was when the market bottomed out. The original post in this thread is horseshit.

4/18/2009 3:45:36 AM

Quote :

"I highly doubt he has some hidden agenda to misguide viewers"

http://www.macworld.com/article/139384/2009/03/dailyshow_cramer.html

4/18/2009 8:23:27 AM