I say yes


discuss

10/9/2009 9:15:16 AM

well 99 RBI'S and 28 home runs would suggest otherwise

10/9/2009 9:17:52 AM

Baseball is the sport where numbers tell the biggest story

He had 28 homers and nearly 100 runs driven in, and his OPS+ was 100, exactly the league average

Plus going into this year, a lot of people predicted he was going to suck...to be truly disappointing, you have to perform way under people's expectations

I'd say based on expectations and previous performance, it was Brad Lidge

He was worse than league average in every conceivable way

Dishonorable mentions include BJ Upton, Garret Atkins and Milton Bradley

10/9/2009 9:26:07 AM

99 Runs Batted In's is nothing to frown upon

10/9/2009 9:28:18 AM

my vote would go to hometown hero Hamilton

10/9/2009 9:28:29 AM

i guess you can chalk some of these up to age/injuries, but:

lowest OPS of his career
lowest SLG since 2000
lowest OBP since 2001
lowest BA since 2001
most K in his career
second fewest RBI since 2002 (10 more than last year, although he played 41 extra games)
second fewest HR since 2002 (5 more than last year, although he played 41 extra games)
second fewest Runs since 2002 (3 more than last year, although he played an extra 41 games)

10/9/2009 9:37:49 AM

/\ still better than half the league.
disappointment... no.
down year for him... maybe

10/9/2009 9:40:30 AM

Don't you live with NyM410 ?

Or are at least close enough with him that y'all exchange handies on a regular basis

Tell him to talk some baseball sense into you

10/9/2009 9:42:06 AM

yes, Ryan, I do live with NYM420

10/9/2009 9:45:37 AM

Chris Young needs to be up there. Most people thought he was going to take the next leap and really develop in to a solid CF...

Anyone who thinks a league average Papi is the biggest disappointment probably shouldn't talk baseball in my presence. I mean it's not like the guy was Mike Jacobs or anything.

** Also, this thread should read:

Adam Wainwright - biggest fucking bitch of a MLB'er in 2009?

WAAAHHHHHHH... THEY WAVE WHITE TOWELS!!!

[Edited on October 9, 2009 at 9:55 AM. Reason : x]

10/9/2009 9:48:43 AM

Josh Hamilton

10/9/2009 9:56:16 AM

To be off the 'roids, I'd say he's doing pretty well.

10/9/2009 10:03:00 AM

Quote :

"i guess you can chalk some of these up to age/injuries not juicing anymore, but"

fixed it for you.

10/9/2009 10:24:35 AM

Yeah, pretty much. Lots of delusional people in this thread...

10/9/2009 10:28:42 AM

How about Jose Reyes

Sure it was due to injury, but still...pretty disappointing

10/9/2009 11:10:10 AM

What about the 2009 White Sox?

That's a huge disappointment.

10/9/2009 11:12:26 AM

Carlos Zambrano

10/9/2009 11:27:10 AM

If you're into things like VORP, the following 162 players were better than Papi:

Quote :

"# NAME TEAM POS 1 Albert Pujols SLN 1b 2 Joe Mauer MIN c 3 Hanley Ramirez FLO ss 4 Prince Fielder MIL 1b 5 Ryan Braun MIL lf 6 Derek Jeter NYA ss 7 Pablo Sandoval SFN 3b 8 Chase Utley PHI 2b 9 Ben Zobrist TBA 2b 10 Troy Tulowitzki COL ss 11 Jason Bartlett TBA ss 12 Adam Lind TOR dh 13 Adrian Gonzalez SDN 1b 14 Miguel Cabrera DET 1b 15 Evan Longoria TBA 3b 16 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 3b 17 Kevin Youkilis BOS 1b 18 Ichiro Suzuki SEA rf 19 Shin-Soo Choo CLE rf 20 Derrek Lee CHN 1b 21 Michael Young TEX 3b 22 Joey Votto CIN 1b 23 Mark Teixeira NYA 1b 24 Matt Kemp LAN cf 25 Alex Rodriguez NYA 3b 26 Ryan Howard PHI 1b 27 David Wright NYN 3b 28 Jason Bay BOS lf 29 Adam Dunn WAS 1b 30 Robinson Cano NYA 2b 31 Jason Kubel MIN dh 32 Miguel Tejada HOU ss 33 Jayson Werth PHI rf 34 Carl Crawford TBA lf 35 Mark Reynolds ARI 3b 36 Aaron Hill TOR 2b 37 Jacoby Ellsbury BOS cf 38 Justin Upton ARI rf 39 Todd Helton COL 1b 40 Torii Hunter ANA cf 41 Kendry Morales ANA 1b 42 Carlos Beltran NYN cf 43 Marco Scutaro TOR ss 44 Brian Roberts BAL 2b 45 Dustin Pedroia BOS 2b 46 Yunel Escobar ATL ss 47 Raul Ibanez PHI lf 48 Manny Ramirez LAN lf 49 Andre Ethier LAN rf 50 Shane Victorino PHI cf 51 Chone Figgins ANA 3b 52 Asdrubal Cabrera CLE ss 53 Denard Span MIN cf 54 Brian McCann ATL c 55 Brad Hawpe COL rf 56 Andrew McCutchen PIT cf 57 Carlos Lee HOU lf 58 Bobby Abreu ANA rf 59 Johnny Damon NYA lf 60 Chris Coghlan FLO lf 61 Matt Holliday SLN lf 62 Alberto Callaspo KCA 2b 63 Lance Berkman HOU 1b 64 Michael Cuddyer MIN rf 65 J.D. Drew BOS rf 66 Ian Kinsler TEX 2b 67 Jorge Posada NYA c 68 Michael Bourn HOU cf 69 Billy Butler KCA 1b 70 Garrett Jones PIT rf 71 Casey Blake LAN 3b 72 Chipper Jones ATL 3b 73 Matt Diaz ATL rf 74 Justin Morneau MIN 1b 75 Hideki Matsui NYA dh 76 Erick Aybar ANA ss 77 Aramis Ramirez CHN 3b 78 Dan Uggla FLO 2b 79 Franklin Gutierrez SEA cf 80 Miguel Montero ARI c 81 Rajai Davis OAK cf 82 Marlon Byrd TEX cf 83 Nick Swisher NYA rf 84 Orlando Hudson LAN 2b 85 Nelson Cruz TEX rf 86 Angel Pagan NYN cf 87 Martin Prado ATL 2b 88 Scott Rolen TOR 3b 89 Mike Cameron MIL cf 90 Casey McGehee MIL 3b 91 Josh Willingham WAS lf 92 Nick Markakis BAL rf 93 Juan Uribe SFN 3b 94 Mike Napoli ANA c 95 Seth Smith COL lf 96 Curtis Granderson DET cf 97 Hunter Pence HOU rf 98 Paul Konerko CHA 1b 99 Brandon Phillips CIN 2b 100 Adam Kennedy OAK 3b 101 Carlos Pena TBA 1b 102 Yadier Molina SLN c 103 Luis Castillo NYN 2b 104 Matt Holliday OAK lf 105 Jim Thome CHA dh 106 Skip Schumaker SLN 2b 107 Adam Jones BAL cf 108 Mike Lowell BOS 3b 109 Magglio Ordonez DET rf 110 Russell Branyan SEA 1b 111 Juan Rivera ANA lf 112 Carlos Gonzalez COL lf 113 Victor Martinez CLE c 114 Maicer Izturis ANA 2b 115 Cody Ross FLO cf 116 A.J. Pierzynski CHA c 117 Adam LaRoche ATL 1b 118 Scott Podsednik CHA lf 119 Victor Martinez BOS c 120 Luke Scott BAL dh 121 Felipe Lopez MIL 2b 122 Scott Hairston SDN cf 123 Nolan Reimold BAL lf 124 Jose Lopez SEA 2b 125 Kurt Suzuki OAK c 126 Gordon Beckham CHA 3b 127 Jimmy Rollins PHI ss 128 Kosuke Fukudome CHN cf 129 Ryan Raburn DET lf 130 Alexei Ramirez CHA ss 131 Jorge Cantu FLO 1b 132 Dexter Fowler COL cf 133 Nyjer Morgan WAS cf 134 Freddy Sanchez PIT 2b 135 Rafael Furcal LAN ss 136 Jonny Gomes CIN lf 137 Travis Hafner CLE dh 138 Stephen Drew ARI ss 139 Lyle Overbay TOR 1b 140 Ryan Theriot CHN ss 141 Brendan Ryan SLN ss 142 Grady Sizemore CLE cf 143 Craig Counsell MIL 2b 144 Jack Cust OAK dh 145 Jeff Francoeur NYN rf 146 Elvis Andrus TEX ss 147 Gary Sheffield NYN lf 148 Howie Kendrick ANA 2b 149 Juan Pierre LAN lf 150 John Baker FLO c 151 Carlos Ruiz PHI c 152 Vladimir Guerrero ANA dh 153 Ryan Sweeney OAK rf 154 David DeJesus KCA lf 155 Randy Ruiz TOR dh 156 Miguel Olivo KCA c 157 Chase Headley SDN lf 158 Placido Polanco DET 2b 159 Everth Cabrera SDN ss 160 Felipe Lopez ARI 2b 161 Nate McLouth ATL cf 162 David Murphy TEX lf "

BTW, Papi's VORP in...
2009: #163
2008: #78 (injured)
2007: #4
2006: #6
2005: #4
2004: #15

Quote :

"The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense."

10/9/2009 12:21:49 PM

Milton Bradley, Pat Burrell, BJ Upton. By FAR

10/9/2009 1:29:36 PM

28 home runs and 99 RBI's is never a disappointment. ever. end of story.

10/9/2009 1:42:12 PM

Silly kirbs, 40 home runs and 120 rbis can be a disappointment, if people expected 50 and 140

It's all about how you perform relative to expectations

And Papi finished with similar numbers to a lot of people's predictions

10/9/2009 1:46:16 PM

Quote :

"And Papi finished with similar numbers to a lot of people's predictions"

Whose predictions?

2007: .332/.445/.621, 35HR/115RBI/103Ks in 138 games
2009: .238(lol)/.332(lol)/.462 28/99/134Ks in 139 games

Anyone who predicted... that? should play the lottery

[Edited on October 9, 2009 at 3:09 PM. Reason : .]

10/9/2009 3:05:11 PM

Quote :

"To be off the 'roids, I'd say he's doing pretty well. "

i was about to say, give the guy a break. He lost his MOJO

10/9/2009 3:18:33 PM

Ortiz’s body type carries a distinct chance of early regression as a baseball player. Two comparisons; Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder (Though Fielder never hit for a high AVG). Here’s a comp for each player starting at age 27:







You can see that all followed the same basic career path. Ortiz’s stats end at age 32, but notice what happened to Vaughn and Fielder. The combination of body type, age and injury caused both of their careers to be over by age 35 and their age 33 and 34 seasons were mostly unproductive compared to their past production.


The Ortiz of .300/40 is long gone.

10/9/2009 3:19:57 PM

3 Responses

1.
Mark, on January 10th, 2009 at 6:23 am Said:

Great research. The Vaughn and Fielder comparisons are definitely valid.

Also if you just look at Big Papi’s swing, it is pretty violent. Even if he’s fine physically, it has to be in his head mentally every time he steps to the plate. Most players usually push aside injury talk, but he was complaining to the media even after he was reinserted in the lineup.
2.
Charlie Saponara, on January 10th, 2009 at 11:17 am Said:

I remember talking to a buddy of mine during last season about Papi’s swing. It seemed like he wasn’t finishing high in his follow through like he had in seasons past. I wasn’t sure if it was because of the injury or just a slight mechanical change.
3.
Phil, on January 14th, 2009 at 1:41 pm Said:

Great analysis, very interesting read. I see you compared him to Vaughn and Fielder, and i read a while back somewhere that DH’s typically regress quicker than most, in this case i’m thinking about Travis Hafner, but there must be others. As Ortiz is only eligible at DH in most leagues, i will be passing on him. Speaking of Hafner, is there a chance he bounces back? somehow i doubt it.

10/9/2009 5:28:58 PM