Let the shit show begin!













I'm too lazy to post anything yet, we'll just collect all the news here as it comes out.

11/29/2010 1:23:26 PM

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/12/05/gingrichs-harsh-words-for-obama/

Quote :

"Gingrich's harsh words for Obama Washington (CNN) - Sounding more and more like a presidential contender, Newt Gingrich came out swinging Sunday against the Obama administration's foreign policy. "I've never seen an administration, even the Carter administration was never as routinely chaotic," Gingrich told CNN in reference to Obama's recent trip to Afghanistan. "Every time you turn around, this administration is fumbling somewhere around the world." He said there appears to be a gap between "the clarity and focus of that campaign and the confusion of the presidency." "He just suffered a stunning defeat, and yet he's behaving as though nothing has changed," Gingrich said earlier on "Fox News Sunday.""

Gingrich is clearly running, if he can turn everything into a negative for the President, even visiting the troops.

12/5/2010 10:18:40 PM

I thought this was about Presidential Contenders. Might as well add Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo if Gingrich is on the list.

12/5/2010 10:40:10 PM

In that same article I shared, Gingrich said this:

Quote :

"I'm much more inclined to run than not to run"

12/5/2010 11:00:47 PM

I'm guessing the players will be:

Romney
Palin
Huckabee
Jindal
Patraeus
Trump
Brown

Pretty pathetic lineup all around.

12/5/2010 11:05:17 PM

^^
Presidential Pretenders?

12/5/2010 11:13:04 PM

The Romney quote collection:
God:

Quote :

"Ahh, good old Mitt Romney, champion of the war against terror, and his 5 military-age kids who don't serve in the military."

JCASHFAN:

Quote :

"If Romney wins I'm voting 3rd party. Period."

IMStoned420:

Quote :

"The Daily Show had a scene where Romney got straight called out on an ad he ran that was completely false. He said he had never seen it. They then played the part where it said he approved that message. Point? Basically he's the biggest toolbag ever."

JCASHFAN

Quote :

"Two white guys from Massachusetts would not make a broadly enough appealing ticket for a national race"

roddy

Quote :

"two white guys, one very rich one, typical face of the GOP....white male....."

lafta:

Quote :

"disagree, it think romney is by far the best he is conservative but has done some things dems might like, like his healthcare plan his problem is personality but if he's learned from last time he may be the next scott brown of the right"

timswar:

Quote :

"If Romney is their nominee it's going to be REALLY hard to for the Republicans to believably run on repealing HCR since Romney has instituted very similar laws in his state as governor."

eyedrb:

Quote :

"However, him putting in a similar plan in mass as O put in, doesnt give him any ground to attack O on healthcare. imo I bet the repubs will find a fiscal conservative with business experience to run by 2012. Its still a long ways out. They need to find a candidate that the teaparty people will support. "

DalCowboys:

Quote :

"This is a real downfall for Romney and if he doesn't admit that the plan was a failure, I don't know how the GOP can fully support him since defeating Obamacare is the primary objective for the Republican party right now...."

eyedrb

Quote :

"Exactly. If he stands a chance, he needs to do the opposite of what he is doing. He is trying to say his plan is SO much different than the presidents, but it really isnt. So you are just talking out of your ass when you attack O while pimping yourself for passing Masscare."

stillrolling:

Quote :

"From what I've seen beginning with last election I would equate Romney's campaign team to Tiger Woods' PR people."

PinkandBlack:

Quote :

"he basically did all but admit he switched position on everything from gay marriage to immigration to health care for the purpose of getting the nomination last time, and then he proceeded to buy his way to a few delegates. surely this is the future."

moron:

Quote :

"Romney couldn't beat Obama"

xvang:

Quote :

"As I remember, Romney wasn't good enough for the white evangelical christian right... he had to make several speeches about his Mormon background. As far as I know, the evangelical right is STILL the bible bangin' evangelical right... and distancing themselves further and further from the base."

ibnuts:

Quote :

"Sad that the Republicans' best hope is a Mormon (I don't care, but it's a big deal to a lot of people)."

robster:

Quote :

"if its huck, palin, and romney as the 3 leading contenders in the primaries, then Palin will unfortunately come out on top. Huck will anti-mormon all the conservatives again"

12/5/2010 11:20:01 PM

The economy's not going to be bad enough for a change in president.


That's pretty much the only thing that determines whether presidents are kicked out after first term.

12/6/2010 12:13:14 AM

Well surely that will be the goal of the Republicans over the next two years.

12/6/2010 12:20:32 AM

The economy has been steadily deteriorating for the past 10 years, with a real acceleration over the past 3 years... I cant forsee Obama getting re-elected after all of his promises failed and he got caught supporting economic keynesian policy fairytales that have blown up in his face

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 1:46 AM. Reason : add]

12/6/2010 1:46:13 AM

Quote :

"Might as well add Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo if Gingrich is on the list."

Gingrich and Paul are in the top 5 right now. Tancredo though? I have to hope the GOP wouldn't support him.

12/6/2010 2:08:57 AM

There's no point in me saying what I'd do if Tancredo was nominated because none of them seem remotely credible and more than a few border on the criminal.

Romney or Huckabee, maybe some as-yet-unknown. Everyone on that list seems too easy to tear down, though.

12/6/2010 2:22:09 AM

Here's a list that's updated regularly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fox_News_Channel_programming#Personalities

12/6/2010 12:02:16 PM

I think Christie would beat O, by a large margin.

12/6/2010 12:06:42 PM

Maybe in a pie eating contest.

12/6/2010 12:15:03 PM

oh I get it

12/6/2010 1:37:18 PM

I'll only support Ron Paul. He's the only candidate that will seriously confront the military-industrial complex and the banking cartel. Obama and every GOP contender won't touch those issues. Call it a longshot, call it whatever. No one else has a proven track record of sticking to their guns and doing what's right. I wish there were others that could show the same kind of courage in the face of political pressure.

12/6/2010 1:47:18 PM

Ron Paul:

Quote :

" The Founding Fathers envisioned a robustly Christian yet religiously tolerant America, with churches serving as vital institutions that would eclipse the state in importance. "

I'd still probably vote for him if he doesn't run on a GOP ticket.

12/6/2010 2:03:05 PM

I don't agree with him on religion, but he's hardly someone that advocates using government to enforce religious values. I think he views churches as a way to handle charity and medical care, as they traditionally have. I don't find that particularly objectionable, as I'd rather voluntary humanitarian organizations handle those things than a government.

12/6/2010 2:51:13 PM

Sarah Palin
various other reality tv stars - personally I'd like to see Kendra go for it

12/6/2010 2:55:26 PM

^lol kendra.

I dont see any way Palin get the nomination. Im not sure she even runs. (maybe that is just me hoping)

12/6/2010 3:21:55 PM

It's pretty clear she's setting up for a run.

12/6/2010 6:29:29 PM

Quote :

"I thought this was about Presidential Contenders."

Anyone running for the GOP primary is fair game for discussion. Even fringe candidates shape the debate (see Christine O'Donnell)

12/6/2010 6:54:04 PM

I'd vote for that ladybug any day.

12/6/2010 7:03:13 PM

Personally, i can't wait for Palin's inevitable clusterfuck of a campaign for the Republican nomination.

The principal GOP candidates and leading conservative voices will finally have an incentive to speak out against her once and for all. The hijinks in the 2012 GOP primary are going to put Bush's shameful 2000 campaign antics re: McCain to shame. Shit's going to be hilarious.

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 7:13 PM. Reason : .]

12/6/2010 7:12:55 PM

Quote :

"It's pretty clear she's setting up for a run."

What is she going to do???

Serve 2 years and Quit...

I think she committed political suicide by being the First person EVER in US history to quit during their first term of being governor (except for those that died or were kicked out).

If she really cared about serving the people she would have finished her term, instead of quitting to give speeches and make TV shows. Sure it makes financial sense, but not political sense for those looking for more power.

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 7:36 PM. Reason : l]

12/6/2010 7:35:17 PM

This might be interesting to look at regionally, considering how important early states are in the primary.

12/6/2010 7:35:41 PM

^ probably one of those gallup polls taken at 2 pm only using people with landline phones. This would be a "skewed" population definitely short on grey matter. Do not know how anyone with common sense could honestly vote for her except....

1.) Those with business or personal relations with Sarah that would benefit from her being in office.
2.) Those anti-Obama or hardcore republicans who think Sarah's the ONLY viable candidate that could beat Obama.
3.) A Conservative feminist (if there is such thing) that want to vote for Palin solely because it is a woman in the white house.
4.) Those who reason that a president is really just a talking head and feel assured that Palin would pick good Advisers (unlike Bush) who would make all the good decisions.

12/6/2010 7:43:49 PM

^^^ Hey man, I didn't say she would win or it would be a good idea but it's definitely going to happen. Stopping off in Iowa and SC for book signings and if you listen to the political papparazzi, people in her circle are clearly indicating that's her goal.

Personally, I hope she does it because it will help expose the Republican agenda as the backwards, unintellectual movement that it is. This woman is a complete retard.

^ You seriously underestimate how retarded half of the base of the Republican Part is. And half of the Democratic Party base is completely retarded too, just in different ways.

[Edited on December 6, 2010 at 7:47 PM. Reason : ]

12/6/2010 7:45:59 PM

Quote :

"Republican agenda as the backwards, unintellectual movement that it is."

I do not support Palin, think she is politically unsavvy, and believe her political beliefs would be detrimental to this country. On the flip though she is not stupid, misguided yes. Also, I do not believe Palin would be a "continuation" of the republican status quo. If anything I think she has a genuine disdain for Washington insiders. This though is no indication that she will not be infected with the DC toxin once she sets up show in the white house. Nor is this insurance she will not set herself surrounded by the Cheney's, Ashcroft's, and Rumsfield's of 2012....

12/6/2010 8:00:30 PM

I don't think she's unusually stupid for an average American. Maybe a little higher. But everyone with half a brain should realize she would make Bush look like Isaac Newton.

12/6/2010 8:11:00 PM

Didn't read the thread, but as a fiscal conservative and general distruster of all in the political game, it's disheartening as hell that the same washed up douchebags that got the fuck owned of them in the last election are front runners at the moment. Is this the Republican party pushing these guys or is it the media pushing these guys and the public doesn't know any better (yet)?

12/6/2010 8:30:20 PM

Romney has the money.

Palin has the Tea Party.

Huckabee has the social conservatives & fundamentalists.

Gingrich has the Washington background/history and some insider support.

Paul has the Libertarians who control the interwebz & college republicans.

The top 5 all have major, or at least vocal constituencies backing them up. With out that, it would be difficult to afford getting your message out this early I imagine.

12/6/2010 8:50:51 PM

i like tim pawlenty and chris christie as my 2 early contenders.

still a long way to go and probably a few that havent' surfaced yet.

12/6/2010 11:55:46 PM

I call Bobby Jindal. I know he said he's trying to stay in Louisiana for awhile, but I'm thinking he's going to get a TON of pressure from inside the party to run.

12/7/2010 12:09:18 AM

Bobby "I'm on the record claiming to have cured cancer with an exorcism I conducted" Jindal?

If he goes too national he'll become the Christine O'Donnell of the presidential election.

12/7/2010 1:21:02 AM

Jindal-palin-odonnell

12/7/2010 1:38:36 AM

Quote :

"Romney has the money."

Money is not the sure bet people think it is. You HAVE to have it, no doubt, but Carly Fiorina proved that it won't win you an election.

Quote :

"Palin has the Tea Party. Huckabee has the social conservatives & fundamentalists."

Huckabee and Palin are competing for essentially the same voters. I think most of the libertarians who formed the core of the original Tea Party have abandoned since it became overrun with . . . well . . . Tea Partiers. Then again, I'm living in Northern Virginia these days and haven't been to a local TP rally in a while. Either way, this could be a savory sub-battle in the South. I think Palin has the Mountain West locked up (though I think she will lose Alaska) but will be competing on Huckabee's home turf in Dixie. Expect the massive amounts of Federal subsidies that go to Alaska as well as Palins aborted Governorship to be issues Huckabee harps on. OTOH, issues are generally irrelevant in the face of a personally popular candidate.

Quote :

"Gingrich has the Washington background/history and some insider support."

Gingrich has baggage, a shit-ton of baggage and a rather unsavory personal life. He also has no executive experience. He's a power-broker, not a politician.

Quote :

"Paul has the Libertarians who control the interwebz & college republicans."

I think Ron Paul has a fairly strong message that generally resonates with younger voters who have a larger share of proto-libertarian voters than older generations. As a candidate however, he is fundamentally flawed. He'll play the same role he always does but, needless to say, won't get the nomination.

Quote :

"i like tim pawlenty and chris christie as my 2 early contenders."

TPaw has a long way to go for voter recognition. Christie is, frankly, fat. Appearances matter and this is something he'll have to deal with in a campaign field dominated by television.

Quote :

"I call Bobby Jindal. I know he said he's trying to stay in Louisiana for awhile, but I'm thinking he's going to get a TON of pressure from inside the party to run."

Nope. Not after his disasterous SOTU response a few years back. His numbers are also slipping in Louisiana and that never bodes well.

Quote :

"Bobby "I'm on the record claiming to have cured cancer with an exorcism I conducted" Jindal? If he goes too national he'll become the Christine O'Donnell of the presidential election."

Got video or a sound bite of him saying this? No? Then don't expect it to be an issue. Nothing is as powerful as a politicians own voice. Nothing is as tedious as a narrator beating a dead horse.

I also think the O'Donnell comparison is a bit much. Wherease O'Donnell is a perennial candidate with marginal electability and a talent only for stirring up her base with self-delusion, Jindal is a fairly effective governor and former US Representative who has proven his electability. He could be a contender on the national stage, but not this year.

12/7/2010 7:49:45 AM

^He has published on the matter, in his own words. You have to purchase the article to read the whole thing, but TPM has some large excerpts from BEATING A DEMON - Physical Dimensions of Spiritual Warfare By Bobby Jindal. (the bold parts at TPM's summarizing, everything else is direct quotations)

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/bobby_jindals_dance_with_the_d.php

Quote :

"The students, led by Susan's sister and Louise, a member of a charismatic church, engaged in loud and desperate prayers while holding Susan with one hand. Kneeling on the ground, my friends were chanting, "Satan, I command you to leave this woman." Others exhorted all "demons to leave in the name of Christ." It is no exaggeration to note the tears and sweat among those assembled. Susan lashed out at the assembled students with verbal assaults. Jindal then describes how the whole situation made him physically uncomfortable, and he wondered if the same demon afflicting Susan was responsible for his state of nervousness: Whenever I concentrated long enough to begin prayer, I felt some type of physical force distracting me. It was as if something was pushing down on my chest, making it very hard for me to breathe. . . Though I could find no cause for my chest pains, I was very scared of what was happening to me and Susan. I began to think that the demon would only attack me if I tried to pray or fight back; thus, I resigned myself to leaving it alone in an attempt to find peace for myself. After a lull in the event -- it in fact lasted "a few hours" by Jindal's reckoning -- Susan attempted to run away, but was dutifully pinned back on the floor by her friends: Maybe she sensed our weariness; whether by plan or coincidence, Susan chose the perfect opportunity to attempt an escape. She suddenly leapt up and ran for the door, despite the many hands holding her down. This burst of action served to revive the tired group of students and they soon had her restrained once again, this time half kneeling and half standing. After what sounds like a number of hours, and a failed attempt at getting help from a preacher (he refused to assist), the exorcism finally concludes in dramatic fashion: It appeared as if we were observing a tremendous battle between the Susan we knew and loved and some strange evil force. But the momentum had shifted and we now sensed that victory was at hand. While Alice and Louise held Susan, her sister continued holding the Bible to her face. Almost taunting the evil spirit that had almost beaten us minutes before, the students dared Susan to read biblical passages. She choked on certain passages and could not finish the sentence "Jesus is Lord." Over and over, she repeated "Jesus is L..L..LL," often ending in profanities. In between her futile attempts, Susan pleaded with us to continue trying and often smiled between the grimaces that accompanied her readings of Scripture. Just as suddenly as she went into the trance, Susan suddenly reappeared and claimed "Jesus is Lord." With an almost comical smile, Susan then looked up as if awakening from a deep sleep and asked, "Has something happened?" She did not remember any of the past few hours and was startled to find her friends breaking out in cheers and laughter, overwhelmed by sudden joy and relief. Jindal writes proudly about the experiment's conclusion: "When the operation occurred, the surgeons found no traces of cancerous cells."

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 8:17 AM. Reason : .]

12/7/2010 8:14:09 AM

Quote :

"You have to purchase the article to read the whole thing"

Exactly. You care. I care. Some informed voters care. This doesn't mean it'll have an impact in the election. How many voters do you know (outside of your politically active friends who, in your case, aren't likely to vote for a Republican anyway) are going to sort through TPM posts or go onto a pay site to read an obscure paper written during the Clinton administration to find out how Bobby Jindal feels about exorcism.

Additionally, this paper is an easy spin into a story on the "power of faith to conquer adversity" which people will eat up in times like this.

Look, if a trillion dollar war with nearly 6,000 casualties doesn't register on voter radar, this isn't going to either.

12/7/2010 8:45:16 AM

Quote :

"though I think she will lose Alaska"

Are you kidding they love her in Alaska. My two Alaskan friends can support....

12/7/2010 8:53:52 AM

^^I disagree. While it didn't really come up in an election in the deep south, it would get serious play I believe if he ran for President. Its already in his own words, and sounds crazy enough with someone reading it:



He is one SNL parody away from being the next Christine O'Donnell. He just needs to get enough name recognition that they take notice. All they have to do is use some actual quotes, and the next day all the news agencies will play a clip and say something like "and I understand many of the funny things that were said were actual quotes?" "That's right co-anchor, the SNL staff didn't have to do much work on this one, lololol"

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 9:19 AM. Reason : .]

12/7/2010 9:19:09 AM

Quote :

"Are you kidding they love her in Alaska. My two Alaskan friends can support...."

Two friends. Well that is indeed compelling evidence sir. But perhaps we should have a bigger data set. Maybe we could hold a referendum in which a Palin proxy ran a campaign against a known Palin opponent. One in which all Alaskans were allowed to cast their vote for who they would prefer representing their state in, oh say the US Senate. Perhaps then we could extrapolate Sarah Palin's popularity and power in her own state based on the results of the election. That would be awesome!

...


...


^ Really? I'm not even playing this game with you today.

12/7/2010 9:33:50 AM

Jindal is about as attractive as Pawlenty, which is to say noone will care.

It will be a battle to the finish between Palin and Romney, unless Gingrich can get both of them behind him.

12/7/2010 6:45:00 PM

It's pretty obvious to me that Democrats want Palin to make a run more than most on the right. She's trying to distance herself from public office. She's concentrating less on holding press conferences and things of that nature, on more on her career outside of politics. She's not qualified. She's a pretty face (compared to most people in politics), but she will not get the nomination after quitting her term as governor halfway through.

[Edited on December 7, 2010 at 8:07 PM. Reason : ]

12/7/2010 8:06:29 PM

I agree that she won't get the nomination, right now Romney is the most likely candidate. The real question is what kind of damage a Palin candidacy does to the GOP both internally and from the outside.

12/7/2010 11:24:51 PM

What about "the Tea Party movement," though? Is that going to continue into the next election cycle? Will they get behind a more moderate (that's the label I'm using, which has nothing to do with what would actually be "moderate" in the context of American public policy) Republican like Romney, who is clearly not a principled "small government" conservative? I'm reluctant to answer those questions this early on, but the "slash spending" crowd is definitely fired up, and I think that makes the 2012 election an entirely new beast.

I wonder what kind of debates we're going to see among the GOP this time around. Is it possible that priorities have shifted since the 2008 election? Will foreign policy and defense spending remain sacrosanct? I can't help but view the idiotic ramblings of McCain and his ilk as increasingly irrelevant. I think there are enough people out there that understand, or could be made to understand, the structural problems that exist within our government and how to establish a legitimate economy again.

To answer your question, I want GOP infighting. More of it is better. In the case of the Republican party, being unified is not ideal here.

[Edited on December 8, 2010 at 12:30 AM. Reason : ]

12/8/2010 12:26:21 AM

Quote :

"What about "the Tea Party movement," though? Is that going to continue into the next election cycle?"

Yes, but its energy will be diluted somewhat with a massive GOP majority in the House and an ineffective Democratic majority in the Senate. Lets be honest though, the only definining characteristic of the Tea Party is dissatisfaction with the status quo and a vague sense that government should be cut. Either way, the TP is so hard to understand because most media outlets have been busy defining them to support their own perception of the "party" with little regard to what it really is.

Quote :

"the "slash spending" crowd is definitely fired up"

Yeah, until you start cutting their spending. Alaska will tell you how much it loves being free and indepenent of government interference, but it still re-elected Murkowski. Alabama is as Red as it gets, but it will re-elect Senator Shelby until the day he dies for all the pork he brings into the state. There are principled "small-government" types who want across the board cuts, but I don't know that there are enough of them.

Quote :

"I wonder what kind of debates we're going to see among the GOP this time around."

The same as 2008 a bunch of professional politicians giving non-answers and attempting to score points with key soundbites while Sarah Palin plays up her folksy non-DC style while demonstrating her complete lack of intellectual curiosity and Ron Paul makes hard points in a valiant but losing effort to shape the debate away from politicial fluff.

Quote :

"the idiotic ramblings of McCain and his ilk "

I don't know that McCain has (or ever had) an ilk. I think it is a shame he lost SC in 2000, and since then it has been all down hill.


I think the Tea Party effect will be felt the greatest at the local and state-wide election level. As angry as these folks are, they're not sufficient in size or unity of purpose to win a Presidential primary. Their most likely effect will be to push "non-Tea Party" candidates to the right during the primaries, but with no real effect on their governing.

12/8/2010 8:11:07 AM

So who's on the Mike Pence/Mitch Daniels bandwagon? Daniels has already made a few strategic mistakes and we still don't know for sure if Pence is going to run, but if either one of these guys throws their hat into the ring, they're my first two picks at the moment. The question is, will any dark horse have a legitimate chance to gain the nomination in this 24/7 media cycle in which we live?

And does anyone think Bloomberg will have any effect on the race if he does decide to run, which is looking more and more likely?

[Edited on December 9, 2010 at 7:06 AM. Reason : asdfsd]

12/9/2010 7:01:46 AM

Just to lengthen the list a bit, here is a fuller gallup poll that isn't focused on the top 5:



At least your team made it onto poll.



I can't see them actually forming a ticket together though, not only because there would be no one on the ticket with name recognition, but mostly for the same reason there wont be a Romney-Brown ticket... I can't see the national GOP get behind two candidates from the same state.

[Edited on December 9, 2010 at 7:41 AM. Reason : .]

12/9/2010 7:38:57 AM