What: 2012 NBA draft
When: June 28
Where: Newark, N.J.
Time: 7 ET (ESPN, ESPN3)


Good news, the algorithm has released it's NBA player projections for the 2012 draft candidates. This is the algorithm that has absolutely NAILED the draft the past several seasons identifying relative unknowns like Jeremy Lin, Danny Green, Kenneth Faried, and Kawhi Leonard as potential stars while identifying too many future busts in advance to count. Algorithms with insane track records like this one are the reason every NBA team is moving away from scouting reports and towards stats/engineering majors in the front office. Without a doubt some of the names ranked high/low will surprise you initially, but if we reference this post in a few years you will be shocked at how many rankings are amazingly accurate as top draft picks wash out of the league and total unknowns carve out lengthy careers. Without a doubt there will be some misses due to injuries, personality disorders, or just plain outliers who beat the odds, but it's guaranteed that this list will look better than the actual draft order if we look back at it a few years from now.

One VERY important thing to understand that the projected stats for each player are based on what they will achieve during their ROOKIE contract (first four seasons). Therefore, a player like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist who is 18 years old may be ranked lower than a 21-22 year old senior since NBA players are expected to reach their peak production at age ~25. Obviously, MKG will still have a lot of upside 4 years from now, so he may still be a better pick than someone ranked slightly higher who is older.

The number beside the player is their projected WP/48 DURING THEIR ROOKIE CONTRACT (not their peak potential). .300 is a superstar (think Lebron, CPIII), .200 is a star level (think Igoudala, Kevin Love) , .100 is an average NBA player (think Darren Collison), .05 is a below average player (think DJ Augustin or Gerald Henderson), .000 is a bad or washed player (think Leandro Barbosa), and negative numbers are a worthless player (think Corey Maggette or Matt Carroll).

OF NOTE. It is somewhat common for a guy ranked in the top 20 to not pan out. However, it is VERY UNCOMMON for someone not in the top 20 to become a good player and nearly impossible for them to become a star. Believe it or not, guys who weren't productive in college almost never go on to become stars in the NBA. This should be intuitive to everyone, particularly NBA front offices but there are hundreds of lottery busts over the years to prove it is anything but.

Onto the top 20:

1) Anthony Davis .192
2) Jae Crowder .121
3) Bradley Beal .116
4) William Mosley .110
5) Jesse Sanders .103
6) Damian Lillard .102
7) Will Barton .098
8) Ken Horton .089
9) Jared Sullinger .087
10) Drew Gordon .086
11) Marcus Denmon .086
12) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist .082
13) Draymond Green .080
14) Thomas Robinson .078
15) Scott Machado .076
16) John Henson .070
17) Chris Johnson .070
18) Ricardo Ratliffe .067
19) Kevin Jones .066
20) Wendell Jones .064


Other notables:
Dion Waiters, #22
Quincy Acy, #23
Jeremy Lamb, #25
Royce White, #26
Kendall Marshall, #32
Terrence Jones, #34
Tyler Zeller, #35
Miles Plumlee, #39
Mike Scott, #40
Terrell Stoglin, #44
Austin Rivers #62
Perry Jones #65
Andre Drummond #66
Marquis Teague #82
Harrison Barnes #83
Tyshawn Taylor #108
Fab Melo #116


Players in italics have been identified as near-guaranteed busts. Many of these guys are young, but youth alone usually cannot turn a bad player into a good one.



I think it's pretty obvious the Bobcats should take Bradley Beal. Not only does he fill a need better than MKG or Robinson would, he's ranked significantly higher.

6/26/2012 3:11:27 AM

I don't see CJ Williams on that list.

Algorithm credibility watch.

6/26/2012 3:38:57 AM

Oh yeah,

6/26/2012 3:46:47 AM

I was going to ask where you got this stat analysis from but I'm assuming this it from wagesofwins.com?

6/26/2012 3:49:36 AM

^ yes, that's the magic list.

It's interesting to note that the Spurs use a very similar formula (if not the exact same one) when they select their draft picks.

The past four seasons three of their draft picks were the highest player available according to the formula. The other season they took the #2 rated player (Leonard) over Kenneth Faried because they needed a SF more than a big man.

6/26/2012 6:47:20 AM

that list is stupid

6/26/2012 8:25:22 AM

i hadn't heard of jesse sanders so i checked him youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhh4TiJiO8o , he's a 6'3 white boy but he plays like an animal

6/26/2012 9:11:23 AM

Anthony Davis has incredible eyebrows.

6/26/2012 9:36:36 AM

Seems no international players this year.

6/26/2012 9:41:36 AM

Quote :

"Anthony Davis has incredible eyebrows. eyebrow."

Fixed.

6/26/2012 9:42:23 AM

Isn't Austin Rivers projected to go in the top 10?

6/26/2012 9:44:44 AM

Is it necessary?
Example of eyebrows: The little boy looks very funny when he knots his eyebrows.

[Edited on June 26, 2012 at 9:45 AM. Reason : add another note]

6/26/2012 9:45:24 AM

Rockets trade Chase Budinger to the Wolves for the 18th overall pick.

Apparently Houston hording picks to make a run at Dwight Howard, as unlikely as that is.

6/26/2012 11:39:02 AM

Apparently the Rockets also have a deal on the table to trade Lowry, the 14th & 16th picks for Tyreke Evans & 5th pick from Sacramento.

Hope that doesn't happen, as I'd like to see the Bulls swing a deal for Evans (if they are dead set on getting rid of Deng and/or Noah).

6/26/2012 11:41:16 AM

wtf do the wolves want with Budinger? They already have a million productive sf/pfs.

6/26/2012 11:43:39 AM

Maybee cuz wayne Ellington suck a big fat turd, and they want a more productive SG.

6/26/2012 11:51:55 AM

KAHN!!!

6/26/2012 11:51:59 AM

Except that he's not a shooting guard.

6/26/2012 11:55:34 AM

Boston to get OKC's 2013 second round pick it obtained from Charlotte due to dispute about Jeff Green's heart condition

6/26/2012 12:01:12 PM

Sorry that list does not include international players I forgot to mention that. It's too hard to accurately control for differences in opposition level so far .

The list is stupid? It's genius if that's what you meant.

It shows you how big of a bust certain guys will be while giving people great ideas for late picks.

It doesn't mean you have to take Jae Crowder over MKG (I explained this in my initial post). It means if you're picking #31 and Jae Crowder is available you'd be a fool to pass him up.

This formula had boozer ranked as the #1 pick in 2002. He went #35. That's not stupid.

6/26/2012 12:48:03 PM

Hey FACE,

Why are people in love with Barnes?

Signed,

BanjoMan

6/26/2012 1:04:46 PM

Also good trade for Minnesota. They were set at pg, PF, and center but they need SG/sf help badly. Budinger is a player, they look like a playoff team now

6/26/2012 1:05:06 PM

Remember when rally had original thoughts and opinions? Now he's basically the God of Sports Talk

6/26/2012 1:44:37 PM

2's and 3's are pretty much interchangable on the offensive end, and to a lesser extent on D, as long as you're not asking Jason Terry to guard LeBron

6/26/2012 1:48:00 PM

well.. i dunno the top SFs in the league basically do not ever run SG on the offensive end e.g. lebron like u said, KD, rudy gay, melo, even peezy is a stretch imo. not that they couldnt play the position and be productive but they just dont =/

[Edited on June 26, 2012 at 1:59 PM. Reason : .]

6/26/2012 1:58:41 PM

I feel like English is becoming the second language around here lately.

6/26/2012 2:06:29 PM

that's not cryptic or anything

6/26/2012 2:27:06 PM

Well, then what the hell is peezy?

6/26/2012 2:35:59 PM

I'd like to see the list from 2008

6/26/2012 2:43:27 PM

Paul pierce maybe? I dunno

6/26/2012 3:11:45 PM

lol my bad peezy is a pretty well known nickname for paul pierce, at the very least i am accustomed to saying/hearing that name

6/26/2012 3:16:12 PM

I have never in my life heard Paul Pierce referred to as Peezy

I think I would slap anyone who called him that to my face

6/26/2012 3:24:48 PM

i always thought he was just called Paul Pierce

6/26/2012 3:27:04 PM

peezy the truth

6/26/2012 3:29:57 PM

i always thought he was just called Paul Pierce

6/26/2012 3:30:11 PM

Peezy F. Baby, please say the baby...

or

Peezy F. Baby and the F is for phenomenal.

Can we never call Paul Pierce "Peezy" again?

6/26/2012 3:40:58 PM

its like calling Iguodala "Iggy" or Dirk "Diggler". peezy and iggy are used all the time. i dont have a problem with those nicknames =/

6/26/2012 3:48:28 PM

Only possible way this would be acceptable was if your name was Calvin Broadus and this was 1994

6/26/2012 3:53:04 PM

Minnesota's trade makes perfect sense

Petkovic, Love, Buddinger, Ridnour & Rubio...an all white starting 5 in the NBA

6/26/2012 5:03:46 PM

Peezy makes a lot more sense for Michael Pietrus

or not, I dunno

6/26/2012 5:12:10 PM

^^ That's a really good lineup. And that's not including the (black) Martrell Webster. If Kevin Love returns to his 2010-2011 form and Rubio returns healthy look out, Minnesota is a guaranteed playoff team.

Minnesota's only current problem is that they have a lot of bad to really bad players in their rotation.

It's probably impossible for them to shed the total garbage contracts like Darko, Beasley, Barea, and Wes Johnson so they'll just have to eat them for a few more seasons. The rest of their guys are fairly young and inexpensive and could be shed fairly easily or kept as marginal reserves like Derrick Williams, Ellington, Randolph, and Tolliver.


Otherwise, Minnesota has put together a really nice young roster. It's just a shame they botched the Kevin Love extension contract so badly and an even bigger shame that they kept Jonny Flynn (one of the most obvious busts of the decade) over Ty Lawson (one of the most obvious steals of the decade). They could have been a serious up and coming contender with slightly better management.

6/26/2012 7:06:23 PM

Quote :

"Mark Armstrong ?@ArmstrongWTVD NBA is one sport where I inexplicably love the Draft and all it's wranglings more than the actual season"

I'm close to this.

6/26/2012 8:34:17 PM

some dude called into the radio earlier today and said the Bobcats should draft Zeller at #2 overall...also said we should try and draft either Marshall or Rivers later in the draft...radio hosts were like "you'd draft Zeller over someone like Thomas Robinson" and the guy is like "what position does Robinson play"

i lol'd

6/27/2012 2:14:05 PM

Can someone other than face remake this thread without the algorithm leading off?

6/27/2012 4:17:56 PM

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/8103436/sources-los-angeles-lakers-want-established-player-top-10-pick-pau-gasol

6/27/2012 4:42:17 PM

Can't believe more teams aren't chomping at the bit to give up a pick and pay him 38 million

6/27/2012 4:52:47 PM

Yeah it sucks to have a thread discussing who the good and bad draft picks will be

6/27/2012 5:01:28 PM

Bucks send 12th pick & 3 scrubs to Houston for 14th pick & Dalembert

[Edited on June 27, 2012 at 5:27 PM. Reason : http://www.nba.com/2012/news/06/27/rockets-bucks-trade.ap/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt2]

6/27/2012 5:26:55 PM

Kinda silly to just post the links with no further insight. We're all privy to the same sources of news.

6/27/2012 5:36:29 PM

I like how "face's" algorithm projected Marreese Speights to be more of a cant-miss draft pick than Derrick Rose

6/27/2012 5:38:11 PM