And it begins...

6/6/2013 3:09:52 PM

Shit's weak (other than the rain of course)

6/6/2013 3:19:07 PM

No name list, no total projections? Sheesh. Smath74 and I are so slacking this year!!

6/6/2013 3:26:37 PM

hopefully it moves through the area fast. I have a flight out of RDU tomorrow at 8:30pm that cannot be delayed.

6/6/2013 4:31:48 PM

^ I can't make any promises on that. There is a lot a variability with both the sky condition/ceiling and visibility with tropical systems so it depends on backed up the tower gets.

6/6/2013 4:41:22 PM

the best course it could take would be for it to avoid NC completely

6/6/2013 5:13:59 PM

some flooding in my neighborhood. there is now a lake in the golf course (where there previously was no lake)

6/7/2013 3:28:22 PM

Quite a few roads in Raleigh flooding.

Likewise elsewhere in Eastern NC.

6/7/2013 3:29:07 PM

so wahoowa did you get out?

Ya they were still calling flood warnings this morning at 10am.

6/8/2013 1:56:02 PM

Went to HHI first week of June this year, instead of mid-August as per usual. Figures that a tropical system would ruin the 2nd half of my vacation

FWPs

6/10/2013 1:25:49 PM

here she comes...

7/9/2013 2:04:12 PM

F Me, going down to Cherry Grove Saturday for a week. Hopefully not a big deal

[Edited on July 9, 2013 at 2:16 PM. Reason : .]

7/9/2013 2:16:15 PM

It has to survive Hispaniola first and its mountains.

7/9/2013 2:38:27 PM

dorian just formed, heading towards the caribbean

7/24/2013 11:34:54 AM

7/24/2013 11:44:20 AM

John Dorian?

7/24/2013 1:02:03 PM

^ That would be bad news for the Turks and Caicos.

7/24/2013 3:35:09 PM

lmao

7/25/2013 9:27:37 AM

I'll give it a few days before I start watching closely. It has some dry air and cooler water temps to move through and then will encounter some more shear as well. If it makes it through without falling apart then I will start watching.

7/25/2013 9:34:47 AM

been quiet

and there's not been a lot of precipitatable moisture between the Lesser Antilles and Africa

with noting of note so far this season maybe there's enough heat in the water for something really big in late August or early September?

8/6/2013 2:55:15 PM

That massive dust storm that blew off the Sahara pretty much shut the Atlantic down last week and this week. Actually cooled the water down rather than it heating up due to all the dust in the air. Water temps were a bit above average now probably down to around average.

I predict we get one GOM landing and one east coast landing the rest of this season.

[Edited on August 6, 2013 at 3:13 PM. Reason : afa]

8/6/2013 3:13:02 PM

Quote :

"I predict we get one GOM landing and one east coast landing the rest of this season."

Tropical storm, minor hurricane, or major hurricane?

8/7/2013 8:18:31 AM

bump for September

9/2/2013 3:32:23 PM

still quiet

9/2/2013 9:23:09 PM

Yea what's up with that I thought this year was supposed o be active as fuck

9/2/2013 9:48:38 PM

This has been a very strange year indeed, lack of storms may give us more insightful data this year than having an active season. It will give scientists a lot to look at for why many things have pointed to an active season, but it just never happened.

I believe a lot of it has been the overly active Saharan Air Layer which pretty much killed off any Cape Verde storms in August. That has since subsided though and still nothing. The air just seems to be more stable than normal and none of the waves that look impressive coming off the coast have been able to keep any thunderstorm activity.

I feel at this point the east coast is pretty safe this season as right now the setup would steer any storms that did form out to sea most likely. We will see if going into the end of the month and October if the Caribbean or Gulf will become more active I suppose.

In the end though all it takes is one monster storm in a season even if it is overall inactive.

9/3/2013 10:37:28 AM

I'm not terribly surprised, since we've been in the trough of the hurricane cycle for a few years now.

Of course it would fucking figure that the only meaningful (impact-wise to US) storm was Andrea, that cut my only real summer vacation short a few days.

[Edited on September 6, 2013 at 8:52 AM. Reason : meh]

9/6/2013 8:51:06 AM

Quote :

"A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS."

9/6/2013 9:07:45 AM

Meh they have been saying that about nearly every wave coming off africa the past few weeks. Looks great over land then hits the water and poof... gone.

9/6/2013 9:11:23 AM

no see, this time it will be legit b/c I'm scheduled to go to the beach in 2 weeks

that's how weather works

9/6/2013 9:32:14 AM

I'm scheduled to go the 2nd week in October. Last year it was outer banks with Sandy so that was fun...

9/6/2013 9:33:08 AM

If we get a storm here in 2 weeks, and then one the 2nd week of Oct, I think you and I need to go talk to the NWS

9/6/2013 9:38:19 AM

Pretty weak season. we're up to i think now 4 storms that have dissipated over the caribbean. I can't say i can complain though, it's my first season as a south florida resident.

9/6/2013 11:38:05 AM

Unless a hurricane forms by 8am Wednesday EST 2013 will break the modern day (satellite era) record for latest forming first hurricane of the season.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907

[Edited on September 9, 2013 at 4:28 PM. Reason : k]

9/9/2013 4:26:20 PM

Don't worry Humberto will make sure to make it by 8pm tomorrow

9/9/2013 7:23:08 PM

http://www.wral.com/hurricane-humberto-forms-in-the-atlantic/12874496/

9/11/2013 5:52:27 AM

What's up with the tropical disturbance currently over Belize? Any chance that heads in our direction?

9/11/2013 7:54:14 AM

Belize you say?

9/11/2013 8:49:36 AM

Quote :

"A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY WHEN SOME DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

9/11/2013 9:20:55 AM

93L is most likely headed into mexico like the other storms that have formed in that area this year. Was hoping it would get pushed far enough north to head into texas and give them some rain but doesnt appear that way. Still hoping some of the moisture will find its way up there though.

Also fucking Humberto ruining the chance at the record!

9/11/2013 9:44:34 AM

Yup, Humberto screwed that up. Also he's gonna max out as a Cat 1 and then fade away in the middle of the Atlantic. Real limp wristed attempt at a first hurricane.

9/11/2013 10:32:15 AM

Who exactly is limp-wristing it?

9/11/2013 1:54:06 PM

mother nature

9/12/2013 10:31:05 AM

thanks mother nature!

9/12/2013 12:32:18 PM

LOL at a Belize storm hitting us

9/13/2013 12:41:13 AM

Some models hinting at a storm moving up the east coast this weekend into early next week, worth keeping an eye on for anyone heading to the beach this weekend at least.

9/24/2013 10:45:53 AM

I'm having a really hard time thinking of a season in the past as quiet as this one.

9/26/2013 3:08:43 PM

Named storm wise it hasnt been the worst season. ACE wise though it has been pathetic. Some of the storms they named this year I dont even know that they deserved to be. Don't see a whole lot of anything to watch out there right now other than a wave approacing the islands and even that doesnt look great.

9/27/2013 8:43:54 AM

oh but i thought global warming was supposed to make hurricane season much worse than normal. what happen???

9/27/2013 8:55:23 AM

A whole bunch of scientists will write papers on it I am sure trying to figure out why so dont worry you can read those.

Based on what I have seen a lot had to do with the SAL being in overdrive this year cutting off the wave train off Africa. That combined with a lot of stable air over most of the atlantic and several ULL's cutting off potential waves early. Sometimes shit happens that doesnt make sense. 2005 went way overboard and this year is basically evening that out I guess.

9/27/2013 9:21:12 AM