Looks like the M1 Money supply has jumped from $4 trillion to $18 trillion.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

https://jalopnik.com/rising-used-car-prices-could-signal-overall-skyrocketin-1846472285

Aside from beef prices going up about $1/lbs and peanut butter going up $1/jar I haven't noticed that much.

Anyone hedged on collapsed?

3/15/2021 3:46:38 PM

Quote :

"Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately."

3/15/2021 4:40:56 PM

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121416/quantitative-easing-fed-balance-sheet-coronavirus/#:~:text=Increase%20in%20Fed%20balance%20sheet%20due%20to%20QE%20during%20COVID%2D19%202020&text=The%20Federal%20Reserve's%20balance%20sheet,as%20of%20November%2017%2C%202020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-january-meeting.html

Also the new M2:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL



[Edited on March 15, 2021 at 5:21 PM. Reason : a]

3/15/2021 5:16:59 PM

https://youtu.be/tw0wtyzW6nA

Ray Dalio saying anyone without a hedge fund and 8 figures is fucked.

4/11/2021 3:09:51 PM

Sounds like we should flip that around

4/12/2021 11:24:43 AM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/consumer-prices-surge-again-in-march-and-push-rate-of-inflation-to-2-1-2-year-high/ar-BB1fBBW1

4/13/2021 10:40:28 AM

Cool, a zerohedge guy.

4/13/2021 3:04:52 PM

Maybe you meant https://mobile.twitter.com/RudyHavenstein

I bet ZeroHedge will be discovered to be owned by a hedge fund who's primary business is selling put options.

4/13/2021 3:20:29 PM

I know this is supposed to be the "serious" forum but every time I see this thread I just think of this
https://youtu.be/QnuKrfzjI6g

4/14/2021 10:15:25 AM

I like this channel

4/14/2021 4:59:46 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBb9zf_zWvU

Related to what he discusses in the end ^

Some junker house listed for $279K got bid up to $500K with 76 cash offers.

Interesting when you consider our reserve currency status:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/china-drops-us-treasurys-impact-on-us-deficit-and-coronavirus-stimulus.html

4/14/2021 7:31:43 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1262070774975913984

4/16/2021 4:19:44 PM

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-we-are-seeing-substantial-inflation-and-are-raising-prices-220539307.html

5/2/2021 3:13:53 PM

Ya’ll remember when this all happened before 10 years ago?

Inflation hit an astronomical (sarcasm) 3% in 2011 as the stimulus and bailouts finally moved into the economy (and the financial sector had somewhat sorted itself out).

Buffett and the usual crew wrote the exact same things they are writing now:
https://nypost.com/2011/03/03/buffett-warns-of-inflation/

Even yours truly was trying to explain the rise in commodity prices at that time, note that commodities are also exactly what are driving inflation now:
https://thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=615418

And as a result, the recovery was neutered. The country would not break a 2.1% inflation rate for the next 8 years and the unemployment rate did not drop below 4% for another 7 years.

We’ve been here before. Buffett was wrong then and he’s wrong now.

5/3/2021 4:42:15 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1389353416464510980

We will if it's the same. The scale this time was much larger than 2008.

5/4/2021 12:25:12 AM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumers-adjust-to-higher-prices-11620552601

5/10/2021 9:31:14 AM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-debated-how-to-begin-pulling-back-on-stimulus-at-june-meeting-11625680801

Quote :

" June meeting minutes show how officials have been surprised by a stronger-than-expected surge in price pressures as the economy reopens Fed officials discussing the matter at their June 15-16 policy meeting weren’t ready to reduce their $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities But the spurt has been stronger and broader based than officials expected. On a 12-month basis, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, after excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose 3.1% in April and 3.4% in May, a 29-year high. "

Wonder what the official number is if you include food?

[Edited on July 8, 2021 at 8:24 AM. Reason : A ]

7/8/2021 8:23:03 AM

Why wonder? That information is readily available.

7/8/2021 10:51:18 AM

It was rhetorical.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/consumer-price-index-increases-5point4percent-in-june-vs-5percent-estimate.html

7/13/2021 9:10:55 AM

What point were you trying to make with your rhetorical question?

7/13/2021 9:47:08 AM

That middle/lower middle class people for whom food is a large expense are fucked.

7/13/2021 1:35:54 PM

The overall food index increased 2.4% over the past year, largely driven by restaurant prices. The only indexes with smaller increases are medical care commodities (-2.2%) and medical care services (1.0%). Meanwhile, home utilities are up 6.3%, transportation is up 10.4%, gasoline is up 45.1%, and used car prices are up 45.2%.

Food prices seem like a poor way to make your point.

7/13/2021 2:08:18 PM

A poor person can avoid most of those other expenses. Particularly people in cities that get around with public transportation and work in low end service industry jobs. Everyone has to buy food.

I highly doubt food is only 2.4%. Given the impact in shipping (containers that cost $3000 now cost $20000). I bet the rise continues with increased local demand.

7/13/2021 5:19:56 PM

What do you think the actual food index increase is? Why is it different from the reported number?

I don't agree that a poor person can avoid simply avoid increases in utility, transportation and gas costs. But, even if that is true, what about the middle/lower middle class people you were worried about 2 posts ago?

7/13/2021 6:06:52 PM

Cantillon effect. You could have high increases in hamburger prices but no increase in caviar. Could lead to a small average increase overall. Distribution may not be uniform.

7/13/2021 9:55:49 PM

Ground beef has fallen about 8% over the past year.

https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/CUSR0000SEFC01

Caviar wouldn't be included in a representative sample of American foods. Seasonally adjusted hot dogs, however, are also down over the past year.

https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/timeseries/CUSR0000SS05011

The data is all available on bls.gov. What are they missing?

7/14/2021 12:04:40 AM

Quote :

"I highly doubt food is only 2.4%. Given the impact in shipping (containers that cost $3000 now cost $20000)"

The container crunch is most pronounced in trans-Pacific shipping, which doesn't supply very much of our food. The vast majority of U.S. agriculture for consumption originates in North America and is largely (though not entirely) insulated from that issue.

7/14/2021 8:31:35 AM

^^ interesting about ground beef. I've tracked some of the things I buy for over a year. That's one that has increased. The few things I've noticed in food I buy is ground beef and chuck have gone up from $6 to about $8 a pound, but not really any increase in ribeye.

My example of caviar was just an attempt to explain the Cantillon effect. You'd need to do separate indices for diets of lower, middle and upper classes. I'm assuming dry aged ribeye has more buffer in price than lower ticket items. It could be that since more resources flow to the upper class the price increases are higher there. The reverse could also be true. Maybe it's only 2.4% after all.

As I understand it produce is on a cycle. When it goes out of season in the US we get produce from Chile. Looks like the average is $8300 there, much lower than China to US.

https://www.freshfruitportal.com/news/2021/07/06/container-ship-prices-skyrocket-amid-ongoing-supply-chain-bottlenecks/

7/14/2021 9:50:24 AM

Where did you get the $8,300 figure? The article you linked suggests that's the average rate worldwide. It's also worth noting that the "$20,000" figure you floated earlier is for last-minute shipments and doesn't represent the norm, even coming from China. Yes, prices have gone up a lot, and yes, it's impacting prices on a lot of things, but it hasn't gone from 3 to 20 grand.

And yeah, a lot of produce is counter-seasonal, but Chile is just part of that. Mostly fruits, especially grapes and berries. For a lot of produce, foreign counter-seasonal imports are coming from Mexico. To the tune of about $7 billion worth of fresh vegetables last year, in fact, more than double our total agricultural imports from Chile.

7/14/2021 11:35:37 AM

^ The $20,000 is my father in law's company. Not last minute. Some smaller companies have to bid higher to out compete larger.

7/14/2021 11:38:09 AM

I don't doubt it, but it can get a little confusing when you link us to articles that explicitly say "$20,000 is just for last minute." Particularly when that's a figure corroborated by other news sources.

But yeah, the container crunch is a big deal and is probably going to keep some supplies low and prices high for the foreseeable. I'm hopeful that the relatively strong vaccine rollout on our end will help get our end of the supply chain back to full capacity so we can start clearing out boxes and sending them back to China, but I think WSJ is probably right that it'll be early next year before things really stabilize.

7/14/2021 11:50:26 AM