^^ This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, but you are wrong again. FG% is the most important stat in basketball. That should be intuitive to anyone who has a rudimentary understanding of the game. You want the ball to go in when you take a shot.

Quote :

" What we want to know is the relative importance of each statistic, or responsive WP48 has to changes in each statistic. And another name for “responsiveness” is “elasticity” (a concept you may remember if you ever took Microeconomics). More specifically, we need to look at how a 1% change (or a 10% change or whatever percentage change you wish) in each factor impacts WP48. The elasticity results – derived from the aforementioned regression and reported below – might prove surprising to some: Points per field goal attempt: 5.2% Rebounds: 3.2% Free throw percentage: 1.2% Personal fouls: -1.1% Assists: 1% Turnovers: -0.9% Steals: 0.7% Blocked shots: 0.2% Rebounding certainly matters. After all, getting and keeping possession of the ball is important; and rebounds are the primary way a team gains possession (without letting the other team score). But WP48 is more “responsive” to shooting efficiency from the field. A 1% change in points per field goal attempt (or adjusted field goal percentage times two) leads to a 5.2% change in WP48. And that result re-enforces a story that has been told again and again. Scoring totals – by themselves – are not what matters in the NBA. What matters is the ability to put the ball in the hoop. In sum, shooting efficiency is important and players who score inefficiently are not really helping. "

5/9/2012 10:51:35 PM

FG% is so important that guys like Shaq and Dwight, who have led the league in FG% routinely got/get pulled from games in the last 2 minutes because their horrendous FT% is such a liability

[Edited on May 9, 2012 at 10:59 PM. Reason : LOL at FG% being "the most important stat in basketball"]

[Edited on May 9, 2012 at 11:03 PM. Reason : v HAHAHA...the "too slow" handshake was funny, grabbing his shorts made it LOLworthy]

5/9/2012 10:57:22 PM

5/9/2012 11:01:00 PM

^^ What does that have to do with anything?

You're right Shaq really did suck. I hate having a guy who dominates for the first 97% of the game. I'd much rather have JJ Redick because if everything goes right and I'm ahead at the end of the game and the other team needs to foul I'm in good shape!

That was a troll attempt right? You think Shaq and Dwight Howard (two of the best big men to ever play the game) aren't any good?

Why are you so scared of knowledge?

5/9/2012 11:20:16 PM

first of all, Howard isn't one of the best big men to ever play the game...he might want to get a better offensive game than dunks from under the basket before he gets placed in the category with true superstars like Shaq, Wilt, Russell, Olajuwon, etc

but if i was more physically dominant than any other big man in the game, i assume i could get some easy shots within 5 feet of the basket

point obviously is there is a reason these players aren't even in the game in clutch situations, its because they can get you the lead for 45 minutes then choke it away when the game really matters

do you think the first 3 minutes of a basketball game are as important as the last 3 minutes?

[Edited on May 9, 2012 at 11:42 PM. Reason : i've heard of Hack-a-Shaq...heard of Hack-a-Howard...never heard of Hack-a-Jordan or Hack-a-Kobe]

5/9/2012 11:25:12 PM

you're taking a pretty irrelevant angle here.

Most big men aren't good FT shooters. This is like saying it's a big deal to have a point guard who isn't good at guarding the post

5/10/2012 12:22:57 AM

My angle is what decides NBA championships, not what decides a betting line in December or a "sports economist" in year-round troll mode

Your own religious stats show that FT% is supposedly the 3rd most important individual metric in evaluating how good players are, doesn't seem too difficult to grasp even for Neo in The Matrix

5/10/2012 12:43:45 AM

Are you familiar with numbers and orders of magnitude? Like 5, 3, and 1?


Shaq was elite at #1, #2, and #5 on that list.

His FT% sucked, but who cares he got a TON of free throw attempts which is really more important than FT%.


Shooting 50% from the FT line is just as good as shooting 50% from 2's.

5/10/2012 1:39:09 AM

Quote :

"Are you familiar with numbers and orders of magnitude? Like 5, 3, and 1?"

hahahahaa

but anyway, i came in here to say that i'm finding myself more and more interested in the nba now that the 1 year rule has been around long enough for me to recognize all of the young players.

5/10/2012 2:08:40 AM

Quote :

"^^ This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, but you are wrong again. FG% is the most important stat in basketball. That should be intuitive to anyone who has a rudimentary understanding of the game. You want the ball to go in when you take a shot."

How am I wrong? Chandler shot 44% from the field in the playoffs quantitatively. Qualitatively all of those shots were from point blank range with tons of time on the shot clock. That is pathetic.

5/10/2012 7:29:30 AM

Quote :

"FG% is so important that guys like Shaq and Dwight, who have led the league in FG% routinely got/get pulled from games in the last 2 minutes because their horrendous FT% is such a liability"

Is this one of those times that you're being sarcastic and I'm just not getting it??

5/10/2012 7:37:09 AM

nope, not being sarcastic

jbrick, do you, like face, believe WP48 is the end all be all of evaluating the best basketball players? i mean i know its convenient when someone asks you "who is better between player A and player B" to just check a list on a blog and have a definitive answer, but i still don't subscribe to that theory

i'd like to see a list of FG% by players in the last 2 minutes of single digit games...the field goals you make in crunch time of close games are obviously more valuable than a putback layup in the first quarter

5/10/2012 1:49:04 PM

I don't even know what the fuck WP48 is. But about 80/90% of the time when you're arguing about who the better player is, rally is correct. And if he uses WD-40 to get that answer, then it must be pretty good.

And FG%, to me, is the most important statistic in determining how good a player is (well...for players that shoot regularly). It's like OBP in baseball. You make a high percentage of shots in basketball...you're going to win. You get guys on base in baseball...you're going to win.

You must think Robert Horry is the best player that ever lived? You can probably put Derek Fisher in there as well...that guy has hit some money shots in the final two minutes.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 2:02 PM. Reason : .]

5/10/2012 2:01:21 PM

Quote :

"But about 80/90% of the time when you're arguing about who the better player is, rally is correct."

example? like when he says Ibaka is just as good as Durant? or Drexler is better than Jordan? Melo isn't a top-10 player in his division?

rally doesn't even make his own arguments about what players are better, he quotes Dave Berri's wagesofwins blog and WP48 list as a definitive list of who the best players are

Quote :

"You must think Robert Horry is the best player that ever lived?"

You must think Nikola Pekovic was the 2nd best player in the league this year? (cause he was 2nd in FG%)

5/10/2012 2:04:11 PM

^ That dude was a fucking beast when he wasn't injured. He's a top 5 center in the league when he's healthy. And I didn't say it was the SOLE factor...I said it was the most important. It is more important than what they shoot in the last two minutes of the game. If Kobe didn't shoot 30% for a majority of the game, then he wouldn't need to hit a "clutch" shot at the end.

Quote :

"example? like when he says Ibaka is just as good as Durant? or Drexler is better than Jordan? Melo isn't a top-10 player in his division? "

Melo not being a top 10 player in his division is an argument worth having. He's so off and on that it's hard to get a grip on him.

As far as Ibaka and Durant...I think Durant is better, but it's a good argument as to who is more important. A similar argument would be Noah and Rose. Chicago did plenty fine this year with Lucas running the point...but once Noah got hurt in the playoffs, their defense and rebounding suffers and they can barely hang on with a shitty Philly team.

5/10/2012 2:16:55 PM

HOLY SHIT DO PEOPLE REALLY THINK IBAKA IS MORE IRREPLACEABLE THAN DURANT? or is that just some hyperbole? not that ibaka isn't a good player, he is - but durant is a clear top 3 players in the league.

that's like saying in 2010 Reggie Wayne was more important to the Colts than Peyton Manning because his "yards x receptions/quarter^2" was high and he had fewer turnovers. lawd lawd.

5/10/2012 2:25:54 PM

I don't even remember that argument (I always thought the argument with OKC that face kept bringing up was how valuable Harden was, and people kept telling him he was full of shit).

They both (Ibaka and Durant) bring different things to the table in regards to the team. I think you have to look at it in terms of drop-off. The way Harden is playing...not a huge drop-off if Durant isn't in the game (especially last series when Durant had a really shitty first couple games and Westbrook and Harden carried the team). Ibaka has capable back-ups, but that guy really brings it on defense and rebounding and his inside scoring is really good compared to the rest of their shitty post players (on offense at least...I love Collison for energy/defense).

5/10/2012 2:41:56 PM

Quote :

"He's a top 5 center in the league when he's healthy."

seriously?

i'd rather have Bynum, Howard, Noah, Chandler, Lopez or Horford

5/10/2012 2:48:49 PM

Horford?? You'd rather have an undersized PF over a 7 foot beast who averages 14 and 8 in just over 25 minutes a game?? Who averages four offensive rebounds a game?? I know it's difficult to catch T-wolves games (although I still watched a lot this year), but even this guy's stats in limited minutes are great.

I'd take Bynum and Howard over him easy...Noah, possibly, but his offensive game could stand polish, that will probably never happen...not so sure about Chandler (who's offensive game blows).

And Lopez?? Really??

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 2:58 PM. Reason : .]

5/10/2012 2:57:33 PM

Pekovic is 1" taller than Horford

maybe neither Horford or Lopez are that fresh in your mind (especially Lopez) since both of them were injured the vast majority of this season, but Lopez has been a monster ever since he got into the league, and Horford is a double-double machine...i'd definitely take both of them

hell, if you consider Love a center, Pekovic isn't even the best 5 on his team

5/10/2012 3:04:05 PM

Nobody considers Love a Center.

An inch...maybe. I don't believe Horford is 6'10"...but whatever, he's still about 50lbs lighter than Pekovic. Pekovic is a beast. Lopez barely averages more than a rebound more than Pekovic and plays 10 minutes more a game. He also hasn't shot better than 50% in 3 years...which is inexcusable for a "top 5" center.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 3:09 PM. Reason : .]

5/10/2012 3:09:19 PM

I'm not sure about the rest of you. But I'm getting really fucking tired of all this inane arguing. This thread is supposed to be about the playoffs.

That being said I came across this while reading an article about the Nuggets using a laptop in the huddle during a time out last night. Which is apparently not illegal.

Quote :

"The Nuggets' sideline laptop also seems like a pretty significant step toward something I wrote about after last year's Sloan conference — the continued advance of data analytics, simulation and modeling not only in front-office decision-making or even game-planning, but in actual choices made on the sideline during games. The movement toward analytics informing in-game decisions took a massive leap forward when Mark Cuban brought 82games.com founder Roland Beech into the fold for the Dallas Mavericks to work with coach Rick Carlisle; one wonders if the presence of this sort of cache of information on the sideline, available to and presumably being considered by a Hall of Fame coach in high-leverage situations during a playoff game could represent another jump in the near future. There's obviously still a gap between the ability to condense reams of data on late-game tendencies into a few byte-sized morsels that can be called up on a computer screen and the likelihood that you'll convince hard-bitten veteran coaches to actually use the information. But if a respected lifer like Karl's open to it, and if it can help level the playing field for his relatively inexperienced team against more seasoned competition, then maybe the gap's not as wide as you'd think."

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/denver-nuggets-laptop-full-scouting-data-angers-lakers-195203940.html


And here's another related article: "Rise of the machines: Will coaches cede control to data analysts?"

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Rise-of-the-machines-Will-coaches-cede-control-?urn=nba-330135

5/10/2012 3:12:17 PM

Brook Lopez is 7 feet tall and got six rebounds a game last season, a season in which he played all 82 games. Please enlighten us as to how that equals a monster.

5/10/2012 3:17:17 PM

Why the fuck did they use a laptop and not a tablet (didn't read article)?

^ Thanks Slave.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 3:19 PM. Reason : .]

5/10/2012 3:17:34 PM

^^his rebounding was obviously not his strong suit last year, he averaged 8+ the two years before that

5/10/2012 3:20:08 PM

I just think your use of hyperbole and 'in my opinion' analysis has run its course. Its clear you have a markedly different system of player evaluation than everyone else on this board. I won't go as far to say its wrong, because what the hell do I know, but you're not going to have any support for the majority of your arguments henceforth. It'd be much easier for everyone involved if you either accepted the general consensus or kept your contrarian opinions to yourself. With each post, you dig yourself deeper and deeper into the hole.

5/10/2012 3:27:33 PM

lol, i guess WP48 is the new consensus on TWW, face for ST mod

5/10/2012 3:34:46 PM

Speaking of Brook Lopez, he was in Greensboro yesterday for some reason.



*Not me in the picture

5/10/2012 3:39:41 PM

No one but face is 100 percent stats. We use our eyes in conjunction with stats. But you insist on measuring 100 percent with your eyes, which, even for an NBA lifer, is misguided. You called Brook Lopez a monster. Brook Lopez.

5/10/2012 3:40:35 PM

You just can't ignore stats.

Last postseason I watched a majority of the Pacers/Bulls series and saw Tyler Hansbrough make all these hustle plays. He grabbed some big rebounds, got a few steals, hit some timely buckets, drew some fouls and made some foul shots. The announcers raved about his energy and his positive effect on the team....and I bought it. I didn't think he was a great player or anything, but maybe a solid 1st big man off the bench and a guy who could really make a difference on their team.

Then I looked at his fg %...and it was garbage. He really wasn't grabbing as many rebounds as I thought he was, and his +/- was horrendous. And my opinion of him changed. He also turned out to have a really shitty season this past year.

Stats are important. You can't be one of those old A's scouts off Moneyball.

5/10/2012 3:43:14 PM

TreeTwista10 is like those scouts in moneyball talking about ugly girlfriends.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 3:45 PM. Reason : ^ ah fuck you, beat me to it.]

5/10/2012 3:44:14 PM

Quote :

"But you insist on measuring 100 percent with your eyes"

thats bullshit...i value stats plenty...i just feel the need to actually mention "the eye test" when face disputes that Derrick Rose is an MVP caliber player based on WP48, or some other 100%- stat-driven nonsense

i, too, use both my eyes and stats

5/10/2012 3:44:43 PM

is someone hatin' on BIG AL HORFORD in this thread???

Hawks continue their quest to shock da world tonight in game 6 in Boston. if they were a rap group, they'd be "HAWKS DA SHOCKERS". and tongiht, they'd be CHARGIN' IT TO DA GAME. here's hoping Zaza plays tonight and gives KG an open-hand slap to his face. word.

5/10/2012 4:15:13 PM

I am just glad that Zach Randolph, aka the Big Black Dirk, is back to his old self again.

5/10/2012 4:20:21 PM

I will be glad to stop bringing stats into the argument as soon as people stop making inane arguments that don't make any sense.

If you think Kobe is still a GREAT player then obviously your eye test is garbage. Then you won't even listen to stats that show he' s no longer a great player.

Really, what's left?

Anyway, everyone (myself included) is tired of the arguments so let's just drop it and enjoy the playoffs.

I will continue to predict which teams are going to win based on which team has the better players though.




P.S. I made a mistake the other night I meant to label Kobe #3 alltime SG and Drexler #2. Jordan is obviously #1. And to be honest those 3 are head and shoulders above anyone else who has ever played SG based on CAREER stats, and there is a pretty wide gap between all three of them. Arguing Kobe over Drexler is an exercise in futility. Drexler was THAT good.

5/10/2012 6:54:24 PM

5/10/2012 7:02:05 PM

Here's a good debate: top 5 current shooting guards under 30. Because the cupboards pretty fucking bare.

Harden
Gordon
Monta
George?
Martin?

5/10/2012 7:22:33 PM

Turner

5/10/2012 7:41:59 PM

Afflalo and DeRozan certainly have to be in the argument.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 8:00 PM. Reason : more than turner at least]

5/10/2012 8:00:09 PM

Afflalo is good (though not this series). Derozan is pretty bad. He's almost a 0 wp/48 guy. He gets hype because he scores but he doesn't do anything else right.

Monta is similar.


George is big time, he's a budding star. Guy rebounds, passes, etc.

v Curry is definitely on there if we consider him a 2. And if he ever strengthens his ankles and can stay healthy.



I hedged off big on Chicago +3.5 tonight, so if the 76ers somehow win by 1,2, or 3 I will unleash the fury. If not it's still a nice win, but it's an extra $900 if they can hit my magic numbers.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 8:05 PM. Reason : a]

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 8:05 PM. Reason : z]

5/10/2012 8:02:51 PM

if only Tyreke Evans was a better outside shooter

and Curry is on the list unless you consider him just a 1 guard

5/10/2012 8:03:44 PM

Wade?

the guy shutting down afflalo?

o i forgot there is not a stat for shutting a guy down so it doesn't really exist.

5/10/2012 8:21:07 PM

Wade is 30 years old, the criteria is 2 guards under 30

5/10/2012 8:21:54 PM

Kobe Bryant is SICK!

5/10/2012 8:29:56 PM

Turner may not have put up hot stats this year, but he is definitely looks to be a guy on the upside.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 8:36 PM. Reason : sd]

5/10/2012 8:31:16 PM

So how did Brooke Lopez end up in a comic book store in Greensboro?

5/10/2012 8:38:11 PM

dunno but it sounds like Birdman is a pedophile?

5/10/2012 9:23:33 PM

Turner is developing into a solid player for sure. He's not a big scorer but he passes and rebounds well.


The 76ers are lucky to even be in this game they're being outrebounded 51-30 by the Bulls without Noah. WTF


Up 1 with 3:30 left. Pants are officially SHAT

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 9:28 PM. Reason : a]

5/10/2012 9:25:31 PM

Quote :

"dunno but it sounds like Birdman is a pedophile?"

I too, saw this on the ticker.

Wow Chicago blew it.

[Edited on May 10, 2012 at 9:49 PM. Reason : CHI]

5/10/2012 9:41:44 PM

Just won $1,400 on those Iguodala free throws.


I love the playoffs.

5/10/2012 9:50:09 PM