we only need 2 more wins to be on the bubble. i think we will win 3 more games and enter the acct on the bubble but who will have a better resume with 4+ quality wins?

1/27/2018 3:46:07 PM

Both GT and WF are in the bottom 3 of the ACC with Pitt so we should beat them even on the road. Louisville is better than a lot of people give credit. If we can beat UNC at home it gets us to 9-9.

ND - L
@VT - L
UNC - W
@Cuse - L
@WF - W
BC - W
FSU - L
@GT - W
Louisville - L

1/27/2018 4:08:59 PM

lol we're not sweeping unc

1/27/2018 4:09:55 PM

^UNC is not a great team, and plus the house will be packed for the game. I like our chances.

1/27/2018 4:16:37 PM

there is no way we lose our next game on a week's rest, and another win in Blacksburg is totally plausible which would make Lunardi put us in his bracket for sure

[Edited on January 27, 2018 at 4:18 PM. Reason : ]

1/27/2018 4:17:42 PM

Every game left is winnable including the four road games.

1/27/2018 4:24:42 PM

As of 2 days ago Lunardi had 9 ACC teams making it plus VT just outside the field. Obviously the conference strength is going to mean a lot, but can you really see 10 or 11 teams making it?

1/27/2018 8:35:18 PM

Why does ESPN not have Markell listed for stat leaders? Because he missed some games? He's number 1 in assists per game but not listed.

edit: nvm I see now that he has to play in 75% of our games to be included. 2 more games and he will be at 75%

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 9:43 AM. Reason : .]

1/29/2018 9:39:54 AM

SEASON	TEAM	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
2017-18	NCST	28.1	2.9-6.6	.434	0.9-2.4	.389	1.7-2.6	.641	2.9	7.5	0.3	2.1	2.1	3.1	8.3

1/29/2018 9:45:30 AM

Lunardi has us on the board now. Play in 12 seed.

1/29/2018 10:16:42 AM

Jerry Palm also has us last four in as a #12 seed. 63 RPI 65 KenPom.

1/29/2018 10:25:08 AM

Quote :

"there is no way we lose our next game on a week's rest, and another win in Blacksburg is totally plausible which would make Lunardi put us in his bracket for sure "

That's exactly what UNC just did...and they're a better team than us.

BTW...we can win every game left on our schedule...and we could also lose every game. I like this team a lot, but there's a lot of basketball left to be played.

1/29/2018 10:36:37 AM

My picks for remaining games:

ND - W
@VT - W
UNC - L
@Cuse - Tossup
@WF - W
BC - W
FSU - L
@GT - W
Louisville - Tossup

My guess is we lose one of the Ws and win one of the tossups

1/29/2018 10:37:43 AM

couple of interesting articles about our NCAAT chances

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/luke-decock/article197163109.html

Quote :

"While the NCAA committee is still using the much-maligned-and-for-good-reason RPI as its base measure of teams, it’s no longer grouping wins and losses by raw opponent RPI (top-50, top-100, top-200, 200+) but instead into buckets of different RPI standards based on where the game was played in an attempt to place a more accurate value on road and neutral-site wins. So Quadrant 1, which replaces the old “top-50 RPI wins,” now includes results against opponents ranked 1-30 in home games, 1-50 at neutral sites and 1-75 on the road. And so on. (It’s important to remember that the committee spends a lot of time looking at those categories when it compares teams and less at raw numbers like RPI or other metrics, many of which it has available to supplement its decisions.)"

Quote :

"Seven of N.C. State’s 15 wins are going to fall into Quadrant 4, where the committee will only really notice a loss (no at-large candidate wants to see a loss in its fourth quadrant), while the Wolfpack also has two damaging Q3 losses (Northern Iowa and UNC Greensboro). As things stood Sunday morning, the Wolfpack was 4-4 in Q1, 0-1 in Q2, 4-2 in Q3 and 7-0 in Q4. That’s a little dirtier on the right side of the team sheet compared to, say, another 15-7 team like Butler (2-7, 2-0, 7-0, 4-0)."

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/state-now/article197134139.html

1/29/2018 10:38:35 AM

We'll get some of the new coach leniency as well for the early losses. Get to 20 wins and 3 of those over what will probably be 3 top 10 teams and how strong the ACC is and we'll get in. A 19-20 win ACC team with wins over UNC, Duke, and Arizona? Don't need RPI bucket analysis on that one. Finish with only 17-18 wins and then that becomes a factor and we don't deserve to get in anyway if we can't get to 20 wins with what we have remaining.

1/29/2018 12:10:00 PM

Fun to see someone publicly hate their job like Wiseman.

1/29/2018 12:23:03 PM

I'm wondering if we just game prepped for UNC all week and just hoped we'd out ball Pitt and they just took us for surprise when they had that hot first half.

I hope we're able to get up for teams we're supposed to beat like BC. Wake wasn't a pushover at home and we never seem to play well in their house so I'm not sure it's a lock. Kenpom also has us as a complete toss up against ND but I don't see that either seeing how they beat the shit out of us the first time around.

We seem to match up well with other small ball teams and don't do well against teams that have height on us inside.

That being said, I see us making the tournament and having some good momentum going in.

ND - L
@VT - W
UNC - L
@Cuse - W
@WF - L
BC - W
FSU - W
@GT - W
Louisville - W

1/29/2018 12:25:14 PM

^ND has the injury bug bad. I think 3 starters were out last game. Dunno their status for tonight or the rest of the week.

1/29/2018 12:40:09 PM

we have a good chance to beat ND on Saturday. helps, too, that we have a week off after the UNC win

1/29/2018 12:46:57 PM

They were down 2 starters when we played them the first time (well, one got hurt in the first half of that game with the injury that's still keeping him out.)

1/29/2018 12:48:45 PM

^That's true but hopefully we won't be, like, mega garbage this time

1/29/2018 12:50:10 PM

We're tied for 36th in the new AP poll. UNC fell to 19

1/29/2018 12:57:03 PM

^^^ Bonzie isn't going to be back this weekend and Farrell looks to be 50/50. We also didn't have Markell for that game.

1/29/2018 1:33:24 PM

true, forgot about Markell. My thinking was along the llnes of "they were down a couple of guys last time too". It was also our first conference road game against what was thought of as a really solid team. I just remember getting no penetration but hopefully Markell helps find some guys.

1/29/2018 1:40:29 PM

^You're right. Forgot about that. Huge difference

1/29/2018 1:41:10 PM

Quote :

"BTW...we can win every game left on our schedule...and we could also lose every game."

I think a lot of people are selectively forgetting about the Pitt game last week. I dont want to be a wet blanket, because that UNC-CH game was awesome, but for everyone of our great performances, we have completely crap games like Pitt.

The most encouraging thing is that this team is so resilient, so I wouldn't put it past them to win more than 5 of the remaining games.

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 2:24 PM. Reason : 1]

1/29/2018 2:23:51 PM

We won the Pitt game dog. I'll take "crap" games like that all day long.

You talking about ND or Clemson? Those were some rough looking games.

BTW... anyone see the new wolfpack hustle with the UNC game?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg9fCJT3bKs

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 3:05 PM. Reason : d]

1/29/2018 3:04:55 PM

A wins and win, but that's not the point. That Pitt game was every bit as garbage a performance as ND or Clem. Pitt is the worst team in the league by far. Struggling against them shows that we aren't a lock to win any of the remaining games.

1/29/2018 3:11:12 PM

https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/matt-farrell-out-indefinitely/

Additional info about the injured ND players

1/29/2018 3:23:12 PM

http://gopack.com/news/2018/1/29/mens-basketball-wolfpack-hustle-chapter-nine.aspx

1/29/2018 6:37:42 PM

I think we only win 3 of the remaining games and very easily could lose the next 4. Its hard to replicate a 15/30 3pt performance no matter how well you execute. That is what we required to beat UNC.

With that said, I can't for the life of me figure out why UNC is ranked so far ahead of us in every metric. Their schedule is #1 and we aren't even top 50 in rpi (they are 10th) with almost the same record.

We really must've had an anti-Gottfried schedule this year.

1/29/2018 6:52:50 PM

i often wonder if you're single handedly the cause of this websites decline

1/29/2018 7:13:38 PM

UNCG just lost to Chattanooga in 2OT. They only had 7 wins before tonight.

1/29/2018 9:28:13 PM

^^^Jesus aren't you supposed to pretend to be knowledgeable? Everyone else here has the conversation 6 months ago

1/29/2018 10:24:35 PM

We shot 5/14 from behind the arc when we beat Duke

So I guess we didn't have to go 15/30 to beat a good team

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 10:35 PM. Reason : Earl'd]

1/29/2018 10:33:58 PM

Quote :

"That is what we required to beat UNC."

^I clearly said "UNC" not "Duke" or "any good team". I was also talking about that particular game. We played poorly on defense and I don't think it was a fluke as it has happened in most of the ACC games. We are 116th in defensive efficiency. Arizona, Pitt and Wake are even worse btw.

Quote :

"^^^Jesus aren't you supposed to pretend to be knowledgeable? Everyone else here has the conversation 6 months ago"

Wait, so what are you trying to say? Am I a troll for saying something late? am I not knowledgeable for saying something everyone else thought long ago?

6 months ago, I had no idea we would have the resume we have now, but if you showed me our resume next to UNC's , I would guess we were ranked about the same.

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 11:22 PM. Reason : sorry i don't study basketball schedules during the summer]

1/29/2018 11:21:42 PM

Quote :

"am I not knowledgeable for saying something everyone else thought long ago? "

That one

Quote :

"6 months ago, I had no idea we would have the resume we have now, but if you showed me our resume next to UNC's , I would guess we were ranked about the same."

You know our SOS was going to be terrible soon after the schedule was released

Quote :

" sorry i don't study basketball schedules during the summer"

That's the part that makes you a troll


https://twitter.com/jwgiglio/status/905878963293212672
9/7/17 so only 5 months ago

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 11:32 PM. Reason : E]

1/29/2018 11:29:09 PM

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 11:49 PM. Reason : crap wrong thread. oh well deserves double post ]

1/29/2018 11:48:41 PM

Quote :

"I clearly said "UNC" not "Duke" or "any good team". I was also talking about that particular game."

You implied that we could lose a bunch of upcoming games because we're unlikely to shoot 50% from behind the arc like we did on Saturday.

#Earl'd

1/29/2018 11:50:17 PM

I was probably watching football in September.

I don't claim to know anything about mid-major teams and how the outlook of the #151 team from 2017 compares to the outlook of 2017s 302nd ranked team during the off-season. Thats too much to me. I only claim to know the game of basketball, not every specific stat and I'm certainly not going to probe twitter about college basketball during September. Thanks for doing the good work though.

I also don't think the relative ranking of the shitty teams you play is a good metric but thats a discussion for a different day. I brought up Gottfried because he got mediocre teams into the tourney because we played a lot of shitty teams with strong rpi to pad the metrics.

Quote :

"You implied that we could lose a bunch of upcoming games because we're unlikely to shoot 50% from behind the arc like we did on Saturday. #Earl'd"

We play UNC 3 games from now.

[Edited on January 29, 2018 at 11:55 PM. Reason : k]

1/29/2018 11:52:29 PM

Quote :

"#Earl'd"

1/30/2018 12:00:36 AM

"probe Twitter" he says about following our local beat reporter

1/30/2018 12:00:49 AM

barring something strange happening in either direction, it's going to come down to the acc tournament. both the draw (if we get stuck with a game against pitt it's a disaster, and a mini-disaster for any of the 100+ RPIs), and how many we win

i think we're still one game behind where we need to be, but maybe the big wins make up for that...once you get to the bubble you start squinting for anything that looks good, and our wins are obviously that. there's an upper limit to the RPI though, if we end up at 80ish it doesnt matter who we beat

1/30/2018 12:09:20 AM

Pitt us super unlikely to be playing past Tuesday

So based on the last 3-4 years, if we play Pitt that means we're 9-9 or worse which means we prob need to win it all anyway

1/30/2018 7:12:29 AM

Still think 20-wins and 9-9 or better in the ACC will get us in.

In the last 3 seasons, no ACC team that was eligible(Cuse self-imposed one year) to make the tourney and finished 9-9 in conference with 20 or more wins ever missed the tournament.

Need to win at least 5 of the next 9, would put us at 20-11(10-8) with at least 4 signature wins. That would very likely get us in with anything we added in the ACCT just moving our seeding.

1/30/2018 10:03:21 AM

Seems a little disingenuous to discount last year's Syracuse team. They -1'ed your 20 requirement but they went 10-8 with 3 marquee. Not sure why 1-2 extra OOC wins would be that much more helpful if they are vs 300+ rpi teams.

Plus:

Quote :

"@d1scourse Tell that to recent above -.500-in-the-ACC field of 68 exclusions Virginia (11-7 in 2013), Clemson (10-8 in 2014 and 2016) and Virginia Tech (10-8 in 2016). "

And

Quote :

"@d1scourse ... based on one trip through the data (I'm planning a second), the last time a team with a NC SOS of 250+ earned a double-digit at-large seed was Air Force in 2006 (No. 13 seed)."

[Edited on January 30, 2018 at 1:14 PM. Reason : B]

1/30/2018 1:09:19 PM

^Not sure I get your point.

Cuse was 19-15(10-8), 3-5 against top 25 teams, started season top 25 and fell out early, best win was over #9 UVA, lost in the 1st round of the ACCT. Key losses: BC, Pitt, Georgetown, St John's.

BC and Pitt were fairly awful last year.

The criteria I laid out was 20 wins and 9-9 in the ACC, and Cuse missed that. We have enough quality wins(we have 2 wins better than Cuse's best win) and we have 1-2 bad losses(UNCG makes the tourney and it's not a bad loss, UNI is indeed a bad loss).

There really aren't too many potential "bad losses" left on our schedule outside of Wake.

[Edited on January 30, 2018 at 2:02 PM. Reason : .]

1/30/2018 2:01:28 PM

My main point was pretty clear: why do you think 19 wins (and 10 acc) with a loss to say, top 100 Georgetown, is measurably worse than 20 wins replacing that loss with a win over #330 Bryant or something?

Also first tweet gives 1 example that meets all your criteria (VT) and 2 more that meet all but your arbitrary "last 3 seasons" cutoff

Last tweet kinda stands on its own.

Good column by the tweeter
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/01/30/bracketology-weak-nonconference-schedules-could-bite-these-teams-on-selection-sunday/?utm_term=.53ed55614060

[Edited on January 30, 2018 at 9:02 PM. Reason : Link]

1/30/2018 8:56:35 PM

cuse had like an 84 rpi last year iirc

1/30/2018 11:11:07 PM

we finish the season 5-4 and we're in. 20-11 (10-8) with our wins over Duke, Clemson, neutral Arizona and road UNC(with more possible good wins to come) will beat any other bubble team by a mile. 19-12 (9-9) would be close and would prolly need a win atleast in the acc tourny.

The formula is pretty simple.....beat Notre Dame(short their 2 best players) and BC at home. Beat Wake and GT on the road and then pick up another win between UNC, FSU, Louisville at home and Syracuse and Virginia Tech on the road. We've played the toughest part of our schedule already. Hopefully our guys keep up the execution and intensity.

1/31/2018 2:15:20 AM