I'm done for today. I pretty much used up all my luck/skill for today. I haven't even looked at it since I sold them. Unless the employment situation tomorrow is worse than expected, I would expect a bump in the morning and it will probably roll over by 10.

3/5/2009 12:12:24 PM

clearly i called dibs on him above there, so you can just stand in line.


secondly. i'm actually hoping we don't turn it around today at all. in which case i might buy some FAS right before close and then hope (four letter word) we gap up on no news and sell right then. most days when we end down we do gap up the next day. and days where we end up we gap down.

As for that link above regarding the market to market changes, i don't know if i see that taking place. it'd be a huge play for FAS if it took hold and there might even be some positive cash flow going into FAS based on anticipation of such a relief. however, relaxing market to market standards is what gave Enron such false profits, and i think that a lesson may have been learned from that.


also as for today i don't see us going much much lower today, but i think we'd see lower before we recouped a major percentage of what has taken place thus far today. this is why i think tomorrow would be a gap up. i mean, hell, if things gap down tomorrow and head down we have a lot bigger issues to worry about than the money just lost in FAS.




[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 12:18 PM. Reason : link / today]

3/5/2009 12:13:56 PM

I've been paying back debt from college since i graduated, but now i want to get into stocks that i have some free cash... what would be the best way for me to get started?

3/5/2009 12:14:11 PM

In regards to tech analysis.

What I see with FAS at the moment is it is at its 20sma now with the 50 sitting at about 3.20. Volume is normal. I'd expect to see it keep moving towards the 50 and it will probably hit it at around 3.15 at which point it will pull back. This is assuming noone speaks before it has a chance to make that move.

3/5/2009 12:41:16 PM

i got 685 shares at 2.89 when i did my post. so we'll see how it plays out.

if it hits your 315, or, hell, any where near that, i'll sell half my position and use the rest for the gap up.

which will happen and is an easy 5% or more IMO.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 12:48 PM. Reason : 315]

3/5/2009 12:44:00 PM

So we had a little doji and 2 succeeding upticks with light (comparatively) volume meaning the selling pressure eased just a little and some folks waded back in. However, the next tick was down a little. So, essentially it is sideways but looks like it's forming waht is called a three push pattern which would be bearish (bulls give up trying to push it higher).

3/5/2009 1:18:52 PM

Yeah i see what you're talking about but FAS historically does this a little after 1 and until a little past 2 and then we get a bump which inevitably falls down again, because no one wants to hold over night. i'm going to sell half my position at that bump, so at 3.06 for a little over 5% gain. then i'm going to hold some and sell at the gap up tomorrow.

3/5/2009 1:44:48 PM

does anyone know a good site to track your own portfolio performance vs. the S&P over a given period of time? would have to include being able to list your transaction dates/prices

3/5/2009 2:53:18 PM

you mean to see the composite returns of your portfolio of stocks?

3/5/2009 3:04:48 PM

yes, and compare to the S&P over the same period of time since my purchases

3/5/2009 3:06:35 PM

Quote :

"Yeah i see what you're talking about but FAS historically does this a little after 1 and until a little past 2 and then we get a bump which inevitably falls down again, because no one wants to hold over night. i'm going to sell half my position at that bump, so at 3.06 for a little over 5% gain. then i'm going to hold some and sell at the gap up tomorrow."

Well, I learned one thing, that I can spot a three push. First time TA wise I think I've been able to real time scan the action and have a prediction come correct. Of course, making 2% profit seemed less desirable than just letting it run down and trigger my stop at ~10% loss for some reason.

Another day, another FAS ass kicking. Guaranteed I'm out of the market tomorrow for funds to settle and it will run back to 3.50 or so.

3/5/2009 3:33:30 PM

i hope so, i could really use that. but i'll hedge my bets.

if we gap up tomorrow i'll sell the FAS and buy some SKF. but if we gap down, well, i'm just plain screwed and will hold it until the market to market review is done. the market to market isn't getting a lot of hype so i imagine it won't go through, especially given this administration and am okay with that.

3/5/2009 3:44:47 PM

there's something divine about my relationship with BIDU

everything else can go to hell

3/5/2009 3:51:51 PM

I've somehow managed to turn $12,500 into $4,300 in 3 months

and that even includes 3 "perfect" trades (where I bought at the intraday low and sold near the intraday high)

3/5/2009 3:58:32 PM

i did that before i found ETFs and have gotten lucky i guess since then wrong play on FAS today but i stopped it out at a 5% loss.

3/5/2009 4:14:00 PM

i just spoke to a friend of mine who has a bunch of friends/relatives in the finance industry. one of the friends who just did modeling said that with 95% confidence the bottom appears to be 5900.

The worst case is at 1459.

worst case to occur in late 2011/early 2012 and 5900 to appear between may and nov. which means a lot of hovering and other rallies/declines.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 5:07 PM. Reason : updated]

3/5/2009 4:57:45 PM

lol

3/5/2009 5:00:01 PM

at this rate 5900 will come before may

3/5/2009 5:35:25 PM

how can you even guess where the bottom is.

remember when bush wanted to put our social security in the stock market?

remember that?

ha

3/5/2009 6:26:28 PM

CNBC giving out financial advice. check the link or maybe someone will embed.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=220252&title=cnbc-gives-financial-advice

3/5/2009 7:10:29 PM

^i literally just finished watching that.

Quote :

"how can you even guess where the bottom is."

the guy does modeling. original models pointed to much higher but that is because they included factors such as home prices increasing still and refused to even acknowledge or incorporate scenarios with falling real estate prices. this has all been corrected, and as such 5900 is to where the models aggregate.

3/5/2009 7:50:58 PM

You gave a range from 5900 to 1500 in a worst case. Do you realize how worthless that is?

3/5/2009 8:03:32 PM

that CNBC video targets them pretty badly... any network could have the same clips on them.

3/5/2009 8:17:13 PM

^^i reported it, i didn't make it so don't complain to me.

I also took time to note that 5900 had a 95% confidence rate.

However, i too asked about the depth of the range (but did so without being a dick) and it was stated that the only reason they include that figure at all is because the dow has lost 90% of its value before and in the unlikely instance it lost 90% that is what it would hit.

3/5/2009 8:23:45 PM

That particular video targets them but there are tons of vids out there that show them consistently (mad money being the worst offender) giving out bad investment advice. CNBC is for business news. I really don't care about them asking gimme questions to CEO's and shit. They know who butters their bread. What I think they are fucking up by doing is giving out investment advice and literally causing people who don't know any better but put a lot of faith and stock into what people like Jim Cramer say to lose money. Call those people suckers or stupid if you want (I would agree) but CNBC is irresponsible as fuck to have that kind of shit on TV. They have some retard talking head on there every day saying this is the bottom and I personally think that's just wrong for a business news channel.

[Edited on March 5, 2009 at 9:08 PM. Reason : money]

3/5/2009 9:08:13 PM

i think their problem is not being on 2 hours a day and being on 24 hours a day then they wouldn't have to fill time with bullshit.

i just thought it was known to not take investment advice from ppl on tv or just about anyone until you've done your own research. i forgot people are stupid though

3/5/2009 9:26:38 PM

5% after commissions on the gap up on that FAS. Not much, but more money than having it in a savings account for a year, so i'm happy.

but since i've sold, watch this security go to 4 dollars.

[Edited on March 6, 2009 at 9:59 AM. Reason : $4.]

3/6/2009 9:34:16 AM

My plan is to jump in this thing near the end of the day (depending on how the day goes). Having said that, it surely means the market will finally start its correction near the end of the day and I'll miss a chance on the big money.

3/6/2009 10:49:51 AM

wow FAS at 2.50

3/6/2009 10:57:31 AM

Mind boggling how low it has gone.


That looks like capitulation selling. Volume at 66 million barely 90 minutes into the session. The recent average is 128, and we have 5hrs to go.

Today is the day it reaches a near term bottom. I'll be looking to get in somewhere here soon.

Edit

Oh, had no clue OB was talking today. Then scratch everything I wrote.

[Edited on March 6, 2009 at 11:08 AM. Reason : .]

3/6/2009 11:04:08 AM

Quote :

"Unless the employment situation tomorrow is worse than expected, I would expect a bump in the morning and it will probably roll over by 10."

3/6/2009 11:18:02 AM

we're not going to dump too low on the dow today. it'll be fine over all and we'll end no more than down 1% and might even end up. if FAS hits the low of the day again, i'm buying in and selling on the rise we'll see this afternoon.

^
my comment isn't in reference to you, i'm just writing my thoughts. didn't refresh the page before posting.

[Edited on March 6, 2009 at 11:35 AM. Reason : ^nshit]

3/6/2009 11:31:49 AM

Larry Kudlow sucks so much cock. I get sick of hearing this assholes voice. It's right there with OReilley and Mike Savage with how much it grates on my nerves.

3/6/2009 11:51:50 AM

can't bring myself to pull the trigger on fas

3/6/2009 12:28:46 PM

I just went in at 2.48.

I will sell at 2.60 if it has some momentum.

2.56 otherwise.

i hadn't just gone in but was about to. glad i didn't now. looks like i was wrong on that call, but i still don't see us down a lot for the day. FAS, at these levels, is going to provide a nice gain for someone when we have another bear market rally. the question is when does that rally come.

[Edited on March 6, 2009 at 12:57 PM. Reason : small lie]

3/6/2009 12:32:30 PM

i've been watching it all day. shoulda bought at 2.39 when i had the chance i think. at least for a 2-3 day hold. still watching though.

3/6/2009 12:58:57 PM

yeah i have igoogle up and a TA window watching it. 2.39 could be good, but at this point i'm going to follow it for the rest of the day. if it opens low monday then we'll have day that swings high and take it in the green somewhat so i'll buy it early on monday. if it opens high then i'll be patient and watch it some more because it'll likely fall lower.

whats everyones opinion on them relaxing market to market? likely? improbable? i can see the rationale for both, so thats basically a gamble. however i can't imagine FAS plummeting if they don't change market to market rules but can imagine it getting some big gains if they do relax it.

3/6/2009 1:10:09 PM

Back under the Great Depression bear market pace:

3/6/2009 3:27:24 PM

bahhhhh almost pulled the trigger on fas at 2.33 - at 2.57 now

3/6/2009 3:46:54 PM

same thing happened to me, man. same thing. i had a limit at 2.35 but i didn't do it and switched it to 2.28 when it was trickling down so much.

then i looked and it was 2.4 then 2.45 then, luckily, thanks to a friend who talked some sense into me i stopped sweating pennies and got in at 2.53.

now the question is do i sell at gap up, or hope market to market does us some justice.

I would have been 2% better off right now if i had not canceled my 2.48 bid when my scrote temporarily went back into my body

[Edited on March 6, 2009 at 4:07 PM. Reason : 2%]

3/6/2009 4:05:55 PM

Closed my Best Buy play, first thing I got right lately.

Quote :

"In on a bit of a gamble. Bought 2 April 25s puts for 1.95. Hopefully the earnings on March 26 will really punish the stock if it doesn't happen sooner before the time decay kills these puts."

I mentioned I thought Best Buy was a good short a few days ago. I sorta timed it wrong or else I could have stretched my profit quite a bit more. On that day, Radio Shack reported a really poor quarter which pushed Best Buy down as well, increasing the cost of their puts. If I would have waited for it to float back up (and it did), I could have gotten those for 1.30. Nonetheless, I went ahead and closed my position out at 2.95 (I actually got in at 1.85, I must have typed it wrong the first time). The PUTs actually made it all the way to 3.10 today but I was doing yard work and didn't have the chance to sit at my screen and watch them move.

I'm hoping a short term rally will push push the cost of these puts down again and I'll load up on a few more contracts as I still think BBY has a shitty quarter to report ahead of them.

3/6/2009 4:15:58 PM

i agree with you about BBY having a shitty quarter, especially that a lot of people who would have otherwise bought from best buy went to find deals at circuit city, and if they didn't find what they wanted for the right price they just didn't buy anything.

my only fear is that we'll open low monday and trickle down some more. it wouldn't be hard to believe. even if that does happen i'm going to hold in until at least near thursday when we have some better idea about the market to market hearings.

3/6/2009 4:37:25 PM

Man i am so tired of hearing about the potential buyers from Circuit City FLOCKING to Best Buy. The effect of Circuit City's liquidation on Best Buy's business is negligible at best. There is a reason Circuit City went out of business - NOBODY WAS SHOPPING THERE. Although I like BBY's moat, I wouldn't touch a completely consumer discretionary stock like that for many years. Do you want to be in the business of selling plasma tv's in the forseeable future?

3/6/2009 7:15:05 PM

I considered a week or so back buying some STEM, which now looks to have been a good play given Obama's removal of the Stem cell legislation come monday. The stock jumped 66%. I'm going to monitor it on monday and see if it tics up or crashes down. I imagine it could tic up nicely and might be good for a day trade, but i don't know if i could trust the quick influx of cash into that long term, especially in this market. thoughts?


^ I get your point in the above. I didn't mean to imply that all BB customers would flock to CC and that there would be no customers in BB this quarter at all, but there are plenty of people who would have bought nothing or who were looking for a few particular things and then went to get them at CC instead. People who normally shopped at BB would go to CC during closeout for the purpose of a deal and would get it. Being sick of hearing about it is your prerogative, but it doesn't change the fact that otherwise loyal BB customers were willing to shop CC for their needs and this loss of revenue, especially on high margin items such as speakers, will impact their quarter. its not going to bankrupt BB or be the main reason for their low quarter, but its not going to help it either. This quarter is always a bad quarter for them, and this industry in general, research it. Anything that distracts from potential purchases in the post x-mas to easter slump isn't 'negligible'.

3/7/2009 10:09:35 PM

Quote :

" here's a list from Fortune Magazine obtained from an "insider" of the counterparties WE, as AIG owners are subsidizing: Société Générale (France) Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) Merrill Lynch International Deutsche Bank (Germany) Calyon, Crédit Agricole (France) UBS (Switzerland) Barclays (England) Coral Purchasing, DZ Bank (Germany) Bank of Montreal (Canada) Rabobank (the Netherlands) Royal Bank of Scotland Bank of America Wachovia HSBC (England) Barclays Global Investors Not being in alphabetical order lead the writer of this article to speculate it was in amount owed. "

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/International-Business/AIG-clients-got-50-bn-in-bail-out-cash-Report/articleshow/4239678.cms

3/8/2009 1:53:45 AM

Quote :

"Do you want to be in the business of selling plasma tv's in the forseeable future?"

Only if I am selling at a steep discount, which is why we disagree about CC/BBY customers. It doesn't matter either way as I already booked the 37% gain in a week or so on the play.

3/8/2009 9:44:04 AM

More on mark to market

http://seekingalpha.com/article/124750-will-najarian-s-prediction-of-a-stock-market-explosion-come-true?source=feed

This is a long but well worth your read. For the longest time, I was of the opinion that mark-to-market should be enforced and these shit banks should be FDIC'd now (I have comments I think in this thread, maybe in TSB stating as such). However, I think Mauldin makes a good point with some good examples about why mark-to-market should be relaxed

http://news.goldseek.com/MillenniumWaveAdvisors/1236529543.php

I also think I saw a post on the google FAS board saying a lot of call buying volume was happening on FAS. It definitely seems we're in for a near term bounce. I would say it's hard to see FAS going lower from here, but I also said that at 5, 4, and 3.

3/8/2009 12:09:02 PM

^ word

also this,

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29551746


...its nice outside right now

3/8/2009 5:12:04 PM

Quote :

"but I also said that at 5, 4, and 3."

sooner or later you're bound to be right.

10 more hours to the bell.

3/8/2009 11:19:04 PM

Last week I bought some GLD puts and on Friday bought some well timed SKF puts. We'll see what happens this week but I expect to go long FITB, FAS and then sell the news probably on Thursday. I don't want to be holding this shit when they decide not to relax m2m. If we don't get a boost before Thursday I think I'll keep them and sell by Friday depending on how things go. I'm definitely in the market for some options on financials.

3/9/2009 1:09:30 AM