What do you think about the NFL games tomorrow night?

Ive been eyeballing that Vikings +2 real hard. Their defense should be up to par with last year and Rodgers is unproven. AP should get his, but who the hell is the QB for them now? T. Jackson?

9/7/2008 11:51:12 PM

For this page:

yeah, almost too good... someone help me out with some research to see if Cal is always horrible with cross country trips or something... I know Tennessee dominated their asses 2 years ago


From my quick glance, east of the Mississippi games:
2008 - none
2007 - Lost 35-18 @ Tennessee (wasnt even that close, got their points late)
2006 - none
2005 - none
2004 - Won 26-16 @ Southern Miss (close enough)
2003 - Won 31-24 @ Illinois
2002 - Won 46-22 @ Michigan State
2001 - Won 20-10 @ Rutgers (Tom Holmoe's last year as HC)

So it looks like outside of the Tennessee game Tedford prepares them well for long trips, and compared to those other schools Tennessee was a much much harder game/environment


^ - I like Oakland getting points at home, dont like either in the other one but if I HAD to pick I would go Minnesota.

By the way, related to that Oakland spread, there is a CRAZY trend in the NFL... if the home team in a division is GETTING points, they cover at some ridiculous percentage, something like 75-80%. A lot of people just bet this trend blind, even if it makes no sense to them... so this applies to Oakland tomorrow. Let me see how it applied to other games this week



49ers got 2.5 at home vs. Cardinals, did not cover
Titans got 3 at home vs. Jaguars, covered
Dolphins got 3 at home vs. Jets, did not cover
Ravens got 2 at home vs. Bengals, covered

so 50% so far

[Edited on September 7, 2008 at 11:59 PM. Reason : d]

9/7/2008 11:56:52 PM

^50% isnt too bad

Where the hell did you go to look up all those stats and shit?


I look at the inside slant for pro capper picks and just general odds and ends.

9/8/2008 12:05:57 AM

Oh AC... my dear dear AC... if I gave you that information my online handicapping empire of 332 page hits in two weeks would crumble...






Here is a great source of past games, records against other teams etc for college:
http://www.cfbdatawarehouse.com/index.php

9/8/2008 12:28:45 AM

ahahaha touche'

Thx for the stats link though

9/8/2008 12:31:23 AM

by the way, if any of you use the Harmon Report or Prisco's picks, here are their breakdowns so far:
NOTE - Prisco only does NFL games, so his numbers are only based on todays games so far, Harmon does both college and NFL


Harmon
Predictions ATS have been off by 12.0 points per game
Predictions on the O/Us have been off by 11.9 points per game

Prisco
Predictions ATS have been off by 13.2 points per game
Predictions on the O/Us have been off by 13.2 points per game


Some stats from my own notes:

Teams who have had both games go UNDER the total, (some surprises in here):
Alabama
Auburn
BC
Buffalo
ECU
Florida
Kansas
La. Tech
MTSU
Northwestern
Ohio
Pitt
South Carolina
Temple
UTEP
Washington
Wyoming

Teams who have had both games go OVER the total:
Akron
Cal
Memphis
Ole Miss
Oregon St.
Rice
Utah
W. Michigan
Wake Forest
Wisconsin



[Edited on September 8, 2008 at 1:30 AM. Reason : d]

9/8/2008 1:07:35 AM

Some more:
Note - these are only for lined games, so no Div. II ass kicking go into these numbers

Top 10 Teams in terms of ave. total points scored in their games (their points + opponents):
Cincinnati - 78
Tulsa - 74.5
Oklahoma St. - 72.5
Ole Miss - 61.5
Minnesota - 58.5
UTEP - 57
N. Illinois - 56.5
Wake Forest - 56
Central Florida - 55
Colorado - 55
Colorado State - 55




[Edited on September 8, 2008 at 1:45 AM. Reason : d]

9/8/2008 1:40:25 AM

Trends for tonights Minn at GB game


ATS Trends

Minnesota
Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.
Vikings are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Vikings are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC North.


Green Bay


Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Packers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Packers are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC.
Packers are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games on grass.
Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC North.
Packers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 Monday games.


OU Trends

Minnesota
Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 Monday games.
Under is 5-1-1 in Vikings last 7 games in September.
Under is 6-2-1 in Vikings last 9 road games.
Under is 15-6-1 in Vikings last 22 games on grass.


Green Bay

Over is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 home games.
Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games in Week 1.
Over is 8-0 in Packers last 8 vs. NFC.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games in September.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 vs. NFC North.
Over is 14-3 in Packers last 17 games overall.


Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Green Bay.
Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Green Bay.
Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
Road team is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.


The head to head speaks volumes to me about who to pick but Im going against the trend since so many people are hammering the Under for this game. Might as well fade them.

9/8/2008 3:23:18 PM

and there is a BIG thing missing that was there for all of those trends...

9/8/2008 3:30:56 PM

you seriously might want to go ahead and trade to handcuff Chester Taylor

9/8/2008 4:46:38 PM

^^yea well and that too

We'll see if my fade pays off. Definately dont feel all that great about it but Im rolling the dice

9/8/2008 5:17:12 PM

^^ eh?

9/8/2008 5:56:13 PM

welp split my bets on the GB/Minn game. But I did hit the Over

Good ol fade.


Come on raiders

9/8/2008 10:21:30 PM

http://www.lordofthelines.com

hitting at a brisk 69% for college so far...

oh shit, 69!

9/9/2008 11:01:53 AM

Quote :

"This weekend we will unveil our first ever 30 star plays. These are plays that follow under both of our 'systems' and for the past two years they have hit at 70%. There has not been any all year and this weekend there are a lot. As of now there are 5 college football games and 1 NFL game. We gurantee at the worst a 3-2 NCAAF (but we have a feeling we will either ace them or settle for 4-1.) Our NFL game is also a gurantee and we urge you to absolutely pound the game. We are also done betting big on baseball as it is too unpredictable unlike football and basketball where we make a killing. Get ready to load up this weekend as we gurantee if you follow all of our 30 star plays you will make BANK!"

-Vegas Edge

9/10/2008 12:27:22 PM

I'm liking

UCLA +8 @BYU
Cal -14.5 @ Maryland
Georgia -7 @ South Carolina
Oregon -8 @ Purdue

9/10/2008 12:44:26 PM

Update coming tonight

9/10/2008 7:47:51 PM

Got a few up

http://www.lordofthelines.com/

9/10/2008 9:58:56 PM

I'm definitely liking that Cal/Maryland game. They seem to usually be shaky in the opener, but I think losing to MTSU shows us how bad that team is. Hopefully Cal will be on fire like last weekend...at least enough to cover

9/11/2008 9:16:11 AM

some of the over/under are out... guess they are waiting on the hurricane or something...


holy shit, the GT/VT over/under is 27 ahha

9/11/2008 6:45:08 PM

^27? really? Have you ever seen an O/U set lower than that?


Thats ridiculous

9/11/2008 9:57:03 PM

nope, not in college.


I mean, I actually think the score could be lower but I HAVE to bet that just because its so god damn low. Thats 4 TDs. In the last 2 times they have played at least one of them has scored 27 by themselves

9/11/2008 10:00:58 PM

agreed. I dont have enough balls to bet the under when its that low.


Penn St at -27.5 is another bet I really like. Syracuse is garbage and Ive been betting against them every week, so why not.

9/11/2008 10:12:06 PM

the thing about that one is that I thought the spread would be a lot higher, like 36... makes me think there is something I dont know

^ any thoughts on Duke? I just cant figure that one out... Cut definitely has things going in the right direction but damn option is so hard to plan for in one week, especially with a weak team

[Edited on September 11, 2008 at 10:23 PM. Reason : d]

9/11/2008 10:12:59 PM

the vt total is a misprint probably, it's 38-40 in vegas and at pinnacle

[Edited on September 11, 2008 at 10:39 PM. Reason : d]

9/11/2008 10:38:42 PM

haha... betting that right away then

9/11/2008 10:42:19 PM

^^^Ive been real apprehensive about duke because you're right, Cut is definately making some waves (albeit little duke kiddie pool waves), but its enough to make me wishy washy about betting on them. Not sure about this game cause I thought they wouldnt cover last week and they did.


If i had to pick I may lean towards duke but definately a 1* type pick with the gut

9/11/2008 11:02:37 PM

working on my final College picks right now

9/11/2008 11:07:10 PM

College Picks complete

http://www.lordofthelines.com


man, there is some weird ass line action this week... hurricane is fucking everything up

9/11/2008 11:37:24 PM

Pro picks up now

9/12/2008 12:54:39 AM

What is the line on Tulane/ECU?

I have had a strange feeling Tulane will cover/ beat ECU this weekend...I dunno why...

9/12/2008 12:59:47 AM

13 or 14 I think

ECU is great as a dog, not so great as a fav

9/12/2008 1:07:54 AM

ok i'm betting the farm on it!

9/12/2008 1:17:16 AM

have a weird feeling about this weeks games, so many odd lines, and the hurricane is leading to some weird shit already

9/12/2008 1:33:42 AM

Hated betting on Carolina, but it won for me tonight. This weekend I'm looking at the Cal line over UMD. Is UMD really horrible, and so I should go with Cal, or will they regain some respect for themselves?

9/12/2008 4:02:17 AM

christ +/- 27 for Missouri over Nevada.

9/12/2008 12:17:20 PM

I think i'll bet against them and LSU covering a 42 point spread on North Texas.

9/12/2008 12:18:38 PM

^^^Maryland sucks

I like Cal, Georgia, Southern Cal, Penn State, and Oregon to all cover as favorites

as far as dogs, I like UCLA and Fresno State to cover or win outright

I'm very unsure about ECU/Tulane and USF/Kansas

9/12/2008 12:20:46 PM

I got the over 27 in on GT/VT hahaha


now watch it be 12-9

9/12/2008 12:21:54 PM

is there a place to bet where you don't have to pay for a membership? I tried bodog but i'm kind of new to it.

9/12/2008 12:26:37 PM

oh there are definitely such places... and "guys"

9/12/2008 12:28:05 PM

^^go hang out at a sports bar and look for people who either buy a round of shots for the bar after a seemingly inconsequential field goal, or for the people who look like they want to kill themselves after a seemingly inconsequential field goal

ask them

9/12/2008 12:30:17 PM

ok? As much as I enjoy the cryptic response... i'll rephrase it. What do you use?

V ahhh, gotcha.

[Edited on September 12, 2008 at 12:36 PM. Reason : .]

9/12/2008 12:30:41 PM

a "guy"

9/12/2008 12:32:55 PM

a lot of people including myself use centsports


but i use bodog as well. Centsports is completely free though

9/12/2008 12:33:27 PM

ok guys, I have to maximize a $100.00 freeplay.


GO!

^Cash out of bodog now... http://www.sportsbookreview.com they went from A to C in 1 month, 24 million was seized and I JUST received a tracking number for a small payout I made June 26th. RUN RUN RUN!

I'm signing up with Betjamaica tonight, they're owned/operated by The Greek.

[Edited on September 12, 2008 at 7:49 PM. Reason : .]

9/12/2008 7:47:57 PM

What about taking Rice at +290 with my freeplay ?

9/13/2008 9:30:05 AM

i don't think Rice is beating Vandy

9/13/2008 9:43:19 AM

Quote :

"24 million was seized "

how did you find this out?

9/13/2008 9:52:18 AM

it was in that sportsbookreview thread. search their forums and read a bit on the "bodog - end of an era"

and upon further review, it appears a crazy parlay is a better use of the freeplay than some +290 straight bet.

Quote :

"Anyway, in the example you've given the following allocation yields a risk-free conversion of 81.55%: (-114, -112, -109, -108) => 6.73% (-114, -112, -109, -102) => 6.53% (-114, -112, -101, -108) => 6.46% (-114, -112, -101, -102) => 6.27% (-114, +102, -109, -108) => 6.27% (-114, +102, -109, -102) => 6.09% (-114, +102, -101, -108) => 6.03% (-114, +102, -101, -102) => 5.85% (-112, -112, -109, -108) => 6.67% (-112, -112, -109, -102) => 6.47% (-112, -112, -101, -108) => 6.41% (-112, -112, -101, -102) => 6.22% (-112, +102, -109, -108) => 6.22% (-112, +102, -109, -102) => 6.03% (-112, +102, -101, -108) => 5.97% (-112, +102, -101, -102) => 5.80% Given any number of -105/-105 markets, the following is a mapping of parlay size to conversion rates: Parlay Size Conversion Rate 1 47.62% 2 70.29% 3 80.53% 4 84.56% 5 85.52% 6 84.98% 7 83.70% 8 82.08% 9 80.31% 10 78.49% 11 76.67% So what we see is that at -105 parlays of size 5 offer the highest conversion rates, at which point it starts to drop off. I'll also add that another possibility for freeplays + parlays also exists. Specifically, using a parlay you can leverage a freeplay into a zero-vig bet (single or parlay). So if you felt that a particular outcome were likely to occur to with probability > 50%, you could combine that outcome with, say, 2 other teams to create 4 3-team parlays. In this manner, not only are you converting at 75%+, but you're also laying that entire conversion at +100 odds (i.e., vig-free)."

jesus...

Quote :

"No correlated or manipulated wagers will be tolerated. If an account is correlating or manipulating loyalty wagers it will result in all existing and future loyalty wagers to be void and account no longer eligible for the club.**"

Is this considered a violation? I'm so confused now, would you need a shit ton of books to accomplish this? Is it easier just to make a hedge bet or something? WTB ADVICE

[Edited on September 13, 2008 at 10:26 AM. Reason : .]

9/13/2008 9:58:15 AM