^ average over time, it's outstanding.



what about REITs? any advice on them?

4/10/2007 10:44:31 AM

bought some NUAN last week at 15.80

4/10/2007 10:53:11 AM

Quote :

"Based on the chart a couple of news stories, I'm not sure that this is neccessarily a shitty company. That being said, I'm not sure why you're even wasting time looking at this company. There are thousands of other companies out there that are in much better shape--why are you intent on this one? "

I'm not intent on this company. I work for this company. I'd really like some more insight as to its true current financial state and just where, financially, it might be headed. A buyout would be great, as it might mean vital influx of capital into areas where it could really pay off.

As to whether or not this shit is gonna bounce, well...I'd like to think maybe so, but upper management does such a shitty job that I'm thinking they're gonna choke and either have to file for reorganization or sell.

But I'm so damn obtuse when it comes to looking at all the details...and I would really like a bit of education on the matter.

4/10/2007 1:02:57 PM

if they stock goes any lower i'm going to buy all of it just so i can fire you

4/10/2007 2:46:44 PM

That would be a trip and a half...

The big deal is only like 10% of the stock is publicly offered...the big dawgz are the majority stockholders.

4/10/2007 3:46:15 PM

Quote :

"what about REITs? any advice on them?"

I've owned two over the past 2 years. They performed well for me, but I'm curious as to how the housing slowdown will affect them.

4/10/2007 3:49:31 PM

Where do you guys find the following information for a stock:

-PEG ratios
-Analyst estimates (current)
-Insider transactions (current)
-institutional transactions, mutual funds, etc (current)
-Easy comparison between peers, compare PE, PEG, etc

I know yahoo, google, and the links from google finance have some of this information, but it is not always current. Yahoo lists PEG ratio's for projected growth for the next 5 years, etc, what about the next year alone? I can always calculate this myself, but it would be nice to have all this info in one place. To compare valuations between companies and their peers/competitors.

As for insider transactions, they are usually behind at least a month. And mutual fund buys - i cant seem to find a site (free) where I can get up to date trends on institutional transactions for a particular stock. Maybe this info is not generally available?

Anyways, feel free to list the sites you use to get this kind of info. Also sites that are good for overal market trends, etc.

4/11/2007 12:24:38 AM

mootduff simply channels Warren Buffett

and Jimmy Buffett.

and then he crushes their skulls


[Edited on April 11, 2007 at 9:18 AM. Reason : ads]

4/11/2007 9:17:26 AM

Some interesting commentary on GLD

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/turk/2007/0305.html

This is an interesting read, but the only part I found alarming is the cavalier style of audits on the physical gold. If the lenders get over-extended, that could lead to unethical behavior and/or a crash.

It sounds a lot like banking in general though. The author either doesn't understand that banks always lend more money than they have, or he enjoys be a sensationalist. The creation of money is rooted in the concept of a central bank lending more money than it has. The lender profits from the interest and the economy gets cash injected into it by the borrower. Of course this requires making loans to those which are credit worthy.

The idea that gold certificates are sold instead of gold is merely ironic, because gold used to back the pieces of paper we call dollars. In this scenario, paper represents the very item which used to be the backer. I do think its possible we're creating a "false demand" for the metal, but the market will price that in over time....

4/11/2007 10:01:36 AM

i prefer IAU to GLD. for some reason IAU's upside is pennies better when gold goes up -- haven't looked at it on the downside though.

last night on Fast Money, Bolling and some guy from Deutsche Bank talked about how this protectionism might lead the Chinese to selling our dollars. that would be favourable for gold.

also, to me it feels like gold goes up when times are uncertain. when the market/economy is definitively up or down, gold doesn't appreciate as much. but when things could go either way and volatility is high, precious metals become the defacto low risk asset and you see buying.

i might get more into IAU sometime today.

4/11/2007 11:34:21 AM

man, I have a boner for that CTSH at $83 where it's trading right now...

should I really wait to see if it slides to $80, or should I take the bird in the hand?

4/11/2007 2:50:56 PM

EN looks good to me right now. They're an Italian electricity provider with good technicals and a nice little dividend.

4/11/2007 2:55:40 PM

Garmin (GRMN) is interesting here around $52. I see two possibilities:

1) It will bottom out within the next few days and then pop back above its 50 day moving average. This could be a good swing trade.

2) It will fail to bounce back and violate an upwards trendline that has been in place for almost 2 years. Based on the chart and the technicals, this wouldn't surprise me.

I've been looking to buy some long-term but I think I may wait a bit to see how this plays out. Maybe I'll wait until they report quarterly earnings on May 2.

4/12/2007 12:32:52 AM

yeah, i like GRMN, too...but it's already the biggest position in my portfolio, so I don't want to add to it.

4/12/2007 8:15:58 AM

Duke,

CTSH jumped past 85 today. I don't know what to make of it.

I'm guessing the difference between 80 & 85 isn't so much that you will lose your shirt right? I suppose your guess is as good as mine whether to get in here or wait until 80 (assuming it will retest the $80 mark).



[Edited on April 12, 2007 at 11:25 AM. Reason : sdfgsdfgsdfgsd]

4/12/2007 11:17:20 AM

btw, i bought some USU yesterday.

some of you talked about it in the 2006 thread. i think its got some legs if you hold it for a year.

4/12/2007 11:18:54 AM

i just used a lunch hour to troll the intarnets and found a lot of nice things being said about CTSH. you want to own it.

i also just picked up some INFY.

4/12/2007 12:05:27 PM

yeah, after such a huge jump today, i'm not gonna buy in right now...i'll see if it pulls back some and then buy in. should've bought in at $83 today.

4/12/2007 3:06:58 PM

I've played with USU for a while now.

Unfortunately all of the USU that I have now has calls on it at 12.50 or 15.00

I've also sold some puts though, so maybe I'll get it back if it takes a hit.

4/12/2007 3:15:21 PM

haha, CTSH is tearing it up again today. should've bought in 2 days ago.

Toyota (TM) took a big dive today if anybody's wanting some of that.


I put in a limit order on Home Depot (HD) for $37.70

4/13/2007 10:33:06 AM

Of course I sell calls on my USU immediately before it goes up 30%+ in one month.

4/13/2007 3:20:18 PM

I'm finally back in the black with OCN

The secret to OCN lies in their business model as a collection agency getting both a fee and a commission. Note in their last earning statement that business is booming as of 3 months ago: 474K contracts in 2006 vs 369K contracts in 2005. That is almost a 30% growth in business BEFORE the subprime crisis began. I envision a flood.

I only wish I bought more when it dropped to 9.50 after grey tuesday.

I also picked up NUAN last week. No one can touch them in terms of voice recognition technology.

A couple of others that I'm watching:

KSU
UCTT
ATW
DIGE
DO
MDR - I really want some of this.

4/16/2007 10:16:47 AM

Sold some DVN today ...

Pretty good run from the 63 I bought it for.

Its jumped from 67 to 75 in the past few weeks, so I figure the rise would not hold for very long as it will probably come back down to 71-72. Id buy it back there again though.

4/16/2007 11:24:12 AM

wow, was not expecting this kind of run up. this underscores the notion that the economy may be healthier than many think.

i think we're in for a long term bull run, but be careful chasing stocks at these levels. if there are quality names you've been waiting for go ahead and get in, but know what you want out of the relationship.

4/16/2007 11:51:10 AM

Quote :

"i think we're in for a long term bull run,"

Wow, the market kool aid really does taste good huh?

4/16/2007 11:56:11 AM

you realize he's been one who's doubting the long-term bull? he's hardly blindly cheerleading.

4/16/2007 12:01:00 PM

It's at the moment the skeptics start to sway when the euphoria is probably peaking. It turns into this "well what if the market really is going to run up, I don't want to miss all these profits".

I'm not sure how the market continues to shrug off extremely weak housing numbers, weak job creation, energy prices spiking along with the cost of food inflating at a non trivial value. Is it all priced in? And if so, someone stands to lose a ton of money when reality actually hits.

4/16/2007 12:09:36 PM

The Market is shrugging off the housing slowdown because Wall Street thinks the impact is isolated to a few sectors. So do I.

Some sectors already in recession: autos, residential construction, and home supplies are already in a recession. Banking is heading for a recession.

Some sectors are booming: select materials, oil exploration, extraction & production, biotech, mobile phone services and semiconductor materials

The dot.com bust was a white collar recession – manufacturing had moved offshore and dot.com companies didn’t employ many non-salaried workers.

The housing bust is a blue collar recession – the impact is felt mostly by lower income families as well as home buying professionals who got in over their heads.

White collar workers earn more and spend money differently than blue collar workers. For example, expensive wines fell in price in the dot.com bust because the demand had died away. There is a lot of overlap in purchasing habits (movies, video games) but even more stratification: Ford trucks are more popular at the construction site than a Lexus.

The loss of 500,000 white collar workers pushed us into a recession within 1 year and affected almost every company’s earnings. Will 500,000 out of work home builders and contractors dent sales at IBM or BA? Not likely. Will it affect jet ski sales, ATV sales, Harley sales, and so on? Absolutely. Will Disneyland & carnival Cruise Line lose customers? Absolutely.

The bigger fear is the loss of the house-as-ATM.

Also, bear in mind that a bust in the housing construction segment is deflationary. The price of cement, lumber, and so forth is dropping. The permits to build have fallen almost 40%, an indication of future demand. Consumer spending associated with the soon-to-be-laid off construction workers will further prevent price hikes.

4/16/2007 12:40:41 PM

Quote :

"Wow, the market kool aid really does taste good huh?"

i don't know how long you've been tracking these threads, but i've been saying for a while that the real long term bull market will show up starting the 2nd half of this year.

chasing momentum here is not something i would do -- but then again, you may be a better trader than me.

Quote :

"you realize he's been one who's doubting the long-term bull? he's hardly blindly cheerleading."

i still think there is a chance we get a noticceable correction phase (starting may and lasting into the summer) after these earnings catalysts pass.

i thought the February corrections would last longer and go deeper, but i guess i was wrong.


here's what i posted earlier in this thread as well back in the '06 thread

Quote :

"what i said in this thread http://www.brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=378159&page=36#9730211 Quote : "here is me speculating on what all is going on: right now is end of year selloff - many are taking profits there will also be a selloff in January from those who had gains and do not want to sell in '06 for tax reasons (including a selloff in emerging markets). then there should be a run up through 4th Quarter earnings, and an ensuing selloff with sector rotation (i.e. money moving into healthcare) followed by volatility starting in the spring, going into the summer - with the summer doldrums feeling a lot like last year's (less momentum driven, and more of a stock picker's market) followed by a relatively strong second half (led by emerging markets) if we see an unseasonably strong September, it may hint at a bull market in '08 ...again, this is just me speculating" "

4/16/2007 1:27:02 PM

EWZ and VWO are two emerging market ETFs that have treated me damn well.

Quote :

"mootduff simply channels Warren Buffett"

Warren Buffett:

Quote :

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

I've heard that all the time but ran across it today and felt like passing it on.

[Edited on April 16, 2007 at 3:51 PM. Reason : .]

4/16/2007 3:49:05 PM

correction time starts in 7 days, trust

4/16/2007 8:35:15 PM

UCTT doing well today.

wish i had held on to it when i bought 'em last year.

at $13.15

4/17/2007 10:12:30 AM

NUAN also up pretty big today



yay me

EDIT:

This rule change could have a dramatic effect on the price of precious metals:

http://tinyurl.com/2q8cp7

However, I can't find anything on the current status of this alledged rule change on imf.org. Anyone heard about this? Does ResourceInvestor.com have any credibility?


[Edited on April 17, 2007 at 3:36 PM. Reason : gold]

4/17/2007 3:31:09 PM

i'm tottally loading up on IAU. by time i marry some Indian broad, i will be able to sell it and buy her some bling for the occassion.

4/17/2007 3:54:40 PM

actually, i'm close to done buying it. been getting in since it was in the 50's.

4/17/2007 4:04:15 PM

i like me some hot Indian broads

4/17/2007 6:21:00 PM

someone should start a hot indian broad ETF

4/17/2007 7:05:10 PM

^impressive stock nerdiness

and i thought only the csc people could produce such comments

4/17/2007 7:08:38 PM

a bollywood ETF?


...in other news, so called pros get slapped in the mouf:

http://tinyurl.com/3c2l42

4/17/2007 8:00:09 PM

i just sold over half of each of my TSO and VLO holdings

and bought MO ahead of tomorrow's earnings

4/18/2007 10:53:39 AM

Well, YHOO sure bit me in the ass today.

Not that it hasn't done that in the past.

4/18/2007 1:35:29 PM

hmm... TRID suddenly shot up ~50c after being pretty much flat all day.

4/18/2007 3:28:09 PM

^ no complaints here.

JPM also took a nice little jump today.

4/18/2007 3:36:27 PM

no complaints about TRID here either.

Eric Bolling on Fast Money is officially the smartest man alive.

I stayed out of Yahoo beacause of him. That's just one example -- I've been watching him all year.

4/18/2007 5:03:49 PM

whats up with DD over the past couple of days? i don't see any headlines on yahoo that explain the drop...but like i've said before, i'm a novice in the market

4/18/2007 8:00:54 PM

what do you mean?

it's higher than it was 5 days ago

there may be some volitility with the lingering talks of the possible dow buyout and subsequent breakup

[Edited on April 18, 2007 at 8:10 PM. Reason : e]

there are some other issues that i believe personally influenced the runup (to like 53 and the following drop) a few weeks ago, but i dont think i can legally speak about it

even though the logistics of it dont make any sense

[Edited on April 18, 2007 at 8:17 PM. Reason : e]

4/18/2007 8:03:50 PM

^ ok, just read a brief about that (the dow rumor.) what's a leveraged buy out? how would that affect DD?



[Edited on April 18, 2007 at 8:23 PM. Reason : dow]

4/18/2007 8:21:13 PM

the talks with dow involve a consortium (or two different ones) of investors that were looking to purchase the company, and then in turn break the company into many different units, primarily along the lines that large companies are already divided, into smaller businesses.

the issue with the execs fired at dow involve 2 board members that had been rather.... sedentary in moving up in the company, and got involved with one of the consortiums, in order to position themselves well in case of a buyout... it's kind of like a legal coupe d'etat... well.. dow caught wind, nixed the problem in the bud.

how it'd effect DD would be the fact that even though dupont is a "science" compnay now by our own moniker, we're still viewed as a chemical company. this in turn woudl vault dupont into the #1 spot, but why this would cause a market drop, i have no idea... i dont know enough about th emarket to speculate on that..

however, i do feel that ~50 is probably a stable point, and growth right now is A-OK considering a heavy interest in the housing market, with tons of products that are consumed in the building process.

then again shareholders did get the annual informational and voting packages last week, so who knows.. maybe people see soemthing in the numbers that I didnt bother to read.

4/18/2007 8:28:40 PM

yeah, i saw the voting packages and there was some stuff in there that i found worrisome, but i just started buying stock this year, so who knows?

maybe that kind of stuff is in every annual report...measures brought by stockholders to protect DD's liability in case of lawsuits over PFOA leaching into groundwater.



[Edited on April 18, 2007 at 9:20 PM. Reason : pfoa edit]

4/18/2007 9:06:40 PM

today isn't looking good for me.

4/19/2007 9:52:22 AM