The debt ceiling is certainly affecting "risk on/risk off" to an extent.

But the real concern is the fact that Q2 2011 might have signalled the start of the recession.

Q1 GDP just got revised down to 0.4% so you know Q2 will get revised downward once they take the overinflated inventory predictions down.

Whether it actually goes negative or not is largely immaterial. But if we're getting near zero growth right now then you cant expect corporate profits not to stagnate, in which case stock prices must come down.


Now top that off with reduced short term (or long term if our politicians had any clue) government spending and you can see where this might get ugly for corporate earnings in the short term.

QE3 is inevitable, it's a whacky time to predict the market because without QE3 it must go down, but again its inevitable. So you have to try to time it. I think it will be shortly after Jackson Hole next month.

7/31/2011 9:37:54 PM

Fade the open

8/1/2011 12:04:58 AM

How about we wait and see what the next couple of days tells us? If it gaps and manages to not give it all back there is no reason to fade anything. The market can and will deliver pain to everyone whenever it can. I'd love to see it get back to 12,700 again and fail there. Until the economic data is sustained bad (with the Dow hanging out in the sub 11k range) we won't see QE3.

8/1/2011 6:59:32 AM

Out of 1/2 my fade for 8 bucks 9 min after bell, too easy

8/1/2011 9:39:44 AM

1285.25 on the rest, what to do the rest of the day

8/1/2011 10:01:47 AM

i got long $aapl via a few 410 weekly calls on this dip.

8/1/2011 10:11:20 AM

Paper trading is easy huh?

8/1/2011 10:11:31 AM

Obama saved the market hallejulah HHahahaha.

Ignore the crash at your peril suckers

8/1/2011 10:11:45 AM

I'm a member of the cme and the cboe, if ya need any tips let me know.

8/1/2011 10:18:09 AM

Oh look, a name dropper

[Edited on August 1, 2011 at 5:35 PM. Reason : also...stop lying]

8/1/2011 5:33:47 PM

That was to your "paper trading is easy", those were 25 lots of big futures vs my deltas, it was a good morning. The straddles i was holding took a dirt nap for 6.5 bucks, the whole point is Fade the open worked pretty well, yet you hate.

8/1/2011 6:20:01 PM

This is officially the worst thread in the lounge right now.

8/1/2011 7:11:53 PM

So you work in the pit...for which house?

8/1/2011 7:31:52 PM

It's a prop group Nico Holdings

8/1/2011 11:30:48 PM

rebuying stuff that got trailing stopped out last week, i.e. TYH

8/2/2011 11:47:42 AM

women don't work the pit.

so either you're a liar, or you're a liar.

i guess take your pick

8/2/2011 12:14:10 PM

If this thread sucks its because you are upset that you casually dismissed the code red alerts that have been screaming sell stocks.

In the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine.

Why would you ignore horrible economic data at all costs? Did you learn nothing from this last decade? A mirage is a mirage is a mirage.

Dow is down 150 pts today and all my positions are up 1.5-2.3% sweeeet

[Edited on August 2, 2011 at 1:13 PM. Reason : silver and gold, silver and gold]

8/2/2011 12:55:02 PM

I did very well over the past decade. You're negative year over year, kid.

How's that AAPL short working out for you?

8/2/2011 1:11:40 PM

I'm not short Apple, though I'd like to be. You can't short in an ira

8/2/2011 1:14:27 PM

Good, you would have lost your ass on that trade. Just like when you said that GE and BP were both going to 0.

Quote :

"all my positions are up 1.5-2.3% sweeeet"

My gold and silver positions are up 22.35% and 12.36% respectively today because I use options. Of course, you insist that options are a zero sum game that can't be used to make money.

8/2/2011 1:21:38 PM

Via puts I just did it on gld

8/2/2011 1:28:17 PM

Of course they can be used to make or lose money.

They are still a zero sum game (actually negative bc of transaction costs, and even moreso if you consider poor tax treatment) so its really gambling instead of investing.

Particularly given the short term nature of them.

Bp I was wrong on, but GE I was right on dude. They went insolvent and were going to zero. You can't use the fact that the government gave illegal loans to them to keep them afloat against me. Regulatory risk is abundant, that's why I don't short anything I stay neutral when companies begin to fail. You can't underestimate lobbyists

8/2/2011 1:38:21 PM

Quote :

"Regulatory risk is abundant, that's why I don't short anything I stay neutral when companies begin to fail."

I thought you couldn't short because you only have a roth and a 401k.

Regardless, you're still negative year over year, kid.

8/2/2011 1:50:58 PM

Paper pounding index puts, we are going lower.

8/2/2011 2:17:13 PM

Selling them whiskey and taking their gold. Enslaving the young and destroying the old.

RUN TO THE HILLS - RUN FOR YOUR LIVES

RUN TO THE HILLS - RUN FOR YOUR LIVES

8/2/2011 3:34:40 PM

also re-bought TNA

betting on a bounce tomorrow

8/2/2011 3:38:39 PM

Why not just take a sledgehammer to the nuts instead?

If you hate money buy a boat, if you loathe money buy a plane, if you're indifferent to money then feed the homeless.

Why buy an empty paper bag that you have to walk around holding?

8/2/2011 3:54:34 PM

so do we know when standard and poors will release their decision for the US credit rating?

8/2/2011 4:59:01 PM

S&P is worthless, I cant imagine who listens to them other than those funds with stipulations on what they can hold.

8/2/2011 6:32:21 PM

Quote :

"They went insolvent and were going to zero. You can't use the fact that the government gave illegal loans to them to keep them afloat against me."

When did they get their illegal loans?

8/2/2011 6:36:29 PM

The federal reserve, were you asleep?

8/3/2011 12:04:39 AM

I was asking about the date because they received bailout funds 3 months before you called for them going to zero. Blaming your inaccuracy on the fed seems awfully disingenuous.

8/3/2011 2:17:03 AM

lulz rallyfailurham

8/3/2011 6:54:03 AM

Wait I'm curious did we know about their under the table loans or their ability to off-load worthless paper to the taxpayer back then?

Because that news just broke like 4 months ago

[Edited on August 3, 2011 at 7:27 AM. Reason : aa]

8/3/2011 7:26:42 AM

ok, so my trades didnt work

8/3/2011 10:51:20 AM

You guys can player hate, baller block, or whatever you want to do.
Or you could just do the sensible thing and listen to people that know what the fuck they are talking about.

This is the most easily predictable investing environment in decades until we get QE3

8/3/2011 10:58:45 AM

how much are you up since Sept 2008?

this is a real question.

8/3/2011 11:06:11 AM

I have a theory that I've been keeping an eye on over the past month that I'd like TWW's opinion on. I call it the Trader's Lunch Break Syndrome. I don't know it this has been noticed before by anyone else.

Following the Dow, if you sold every day at 10am on the dot and bought back in at 12pm on the dot, you would by up every day. It seems there is always a big dip around mid morning. I guess Wall Street is cranky and hungry. It falls right before lunch. Then after lunch slowly climbs back up.

8/3/2011 11:11:32 AM

Houses still selling the shit out of puts, sept 1250 to 1200, oct 1175 to 1225, pretty good sign that's where we are headed

8/3/2011 11:46:39 AM

Wouldn't selling indicate the opposite?

8/3/2011 3:48:44 PM

^^^

Quote :

"Researchers from Turkey and Texas (no, we're not sure how they met) got together and studied the S&P 500 market index between 1973 and 1997 and found that days of the week can influence how much money you make trading stocks. Like we said before, Mondays are absolutely the worst. Wednesdays yield the highest returns. Fridays, on the other hand, were the drunken college girls of the group, in that they were most likely to go both ways."

http://www.cracked.com/article_19300_the-5-weirdest-things-that-control-global-economy_p2.html

8/3/2011 3:55:06 PM

another day in the red

8/3/2011 4:09:04 PM

?

8/3/2011 4:39:53 PM

for my stocks

WEN is the only thing that gained today

8/3/2011 4:40:47 PM

SOLR has gotten beaten down with the sector as of late...however, they just posted ANOTHER blowout quarter...(.41 vs .31) a beat of 33%. Their backlog is up to 2.3 BILLION, that should cover their projected revenue through 2013 alone. They have .5 Billion cash on hand with minimal debt. This is a buy at these levels.

8/3/2011 4:58:59 PM

^ I grabbed 700 shares at 13.8 yesterday... I need it to keep going up

8/3/2011 5:17:21 PM

I think it will, tomorrow we see 14.50 I think...they are also changing their name August 8--hopefully this will get them out of being lumped with all Solar companies considering over half their revenue is non solar based

8/3/2011 5:28:05 PM

Wouldn't selling indicate the opposite?

Houses and most option traders don't trade naked they hedge. If you sell puts you sell futures to hedge yourself. (buy put buy futures sell put sell futures, calls opposite) Options also have implied vols, a put and call equal dollar amount from ATM, the put will have more premium (equity index world). So these puts often have multiples of the ATM vol. The pricing models have more volatility baked into these puts. To win by holding these puts hedged the market must outperform the high implied vol . You sell the put, you sell futures, they drop and now you are short the atm. The futures you sold are a winner and now who ever bought it from you is long super expensive ATM that decays dollars a day. Saw this from 2007-2008 before the shit hit the fan in the fall. You couldn't win with a hedged put. They pounded puts for the last three days. This trade sucks in a rally you get beat up on the short futures.

8/3/2011 6:26:14 PM

Who were you replying to? Also, what is your role? Are you a market maker or a trader or what? How big is the roll they let you trade with?

8/3/2011 6:28:48 PM

7 up Mr. Joshua, sorry my quoting wasn't clear. All three, i stand in the pit and trade against a position we as a group carry and trade in a market making function. Not a dedicated market maker that bus has sucked since 2008 now we are kinda on the other side of the card table playing vs being the house. Customers blew out in 2008, and firms that were levered 50 to 1 in between quarters are now chopping var weekly, its trying to come bace but everyones broke. So your position must make money and you can trade some paper. 2 in the position 10 total in account access to a 45 umbrella for all the desks. You can lever that up pretty good.

8/3/2011 11:39:27 PM