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Talage
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^I think that might be Keatts era PTSD. He always seemed to screw around and lose multiple really bad ACC games in the years we otherwise had a solid team. I think that is a lot more rare than we think it is -- good teams might lose a road Quad 3 or 2. But I feel like he would catch a ridiculous home loss or two in addition to those road losses.

Quote :
"4 of those 8 wins are Q4 wins. Those do nothing for the resume, I wouldn’t count them as part of the difficult schedule."


But that isn't how SoS is calculated. All the games go into it. Some of our Q4 games are better than other team's Q4s. Gotta remember that Q4 can include the bottom 50% of all teams. A team at percentile 50 is itself massively better than the team at percentile 99. We also played few Q4 teams. The analytics algorithms are taking this all into account. Which is why we're rated as a strong team and much higher ranked than teams with "better" records.

Put it in this context. Only 20 teams have more than 1 Q1 win right now. And in the group of teams with that 1 win, only Kentucky has more Q1 games (5 vs our 4). I think people are just not recognizing the levels here. Big conference teams that have winning records against a high count of Quad 1 games end up being 4+ seeds. You can have a pretty low win rate against a high count of Quad 1s and still have a solid seed. We just need to win a few more, have a strong record against Q2/Q3 (which we've done well against so far), and not lose the few stupid bad games (which I think this team + staff is perfectly capable of). I actually see that stretch in mid January where we have to play BC (Q3), FSU (Q3), and GT (home) as more dangerous to our tournament seed than the late season stretch with Duke/UNC.

Quote :
"The other part of this is the eye test. Every high major opponent we’ve played has punked us."

I don't see it that way. We were in every game (except maybe Seton Hall). We did play atrocious defense in that 10 day stretch w/ Seton Hall, Texas, and Auburn. And sure, if we regress too much back in that direction, we won't stay rated where we are.

I still maintain we are in a far better spot than we've been in decades. And the analytics/projections support that. We're projected to be a 6/7 seed. That would be our best since 03-04 (#3 seed).

12/20/2025 7:13:49 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"I still maintain we are in a far better spot than we've been in decades. And the analytics/projections support that. We're projected to be a 6/7 seed. That would be our best since 03-04 (#3 seed).
"


The only reason we’re in a better spot is purely SOS. In terms of actual wins, we aren’t trending significantly better than any other teams that have made NCAAT appearances as far as I can tell. And there’s plenty of time for that to change. We have to win games. It starts tomorrow with Mississippi.

I’m not trying to be a downer. I want us to be good. But I’m watching the games. We are fine. We are good enough to make the tourney for sure. We’re also streaky enough and lacking in enough key areas that we could easily lose games we shouldn’t…that’s not KK era PTSD, that’s the reality of how our team is constructed. The coach is calling it out, I think it’s fair for fans to call it out too.

12/20/2025 8:11:52 PM

Elwood
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kindergarten is over!

12/21/2025 11:52:52 AM

dmspack
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Except when we play BC. Then it’s back to kindergarten.

12/21/2025 12:09:03 PM

dmspack
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PM ice cold to start.

Strong defense so far.

12/21/2025 1:16:49 PM

dmspack
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Now the entire team has gone cold.

12/21/2025 1:26:20 PM

dmspack
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Need Able and/or PM to be consistent. And DW remains passive and mostly just kinda of a non-factor. Holloman can get hot.

12/21/2025 1:31:23 PM

Talage
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lol, what was storr doing there. I'll take it, but seemed like he coulda just blocked that if he just pretended to care about getting a hand up


^ I feel like McNeil keeps forcing shots up over tightly played defense and it is affecting his shooting motion a lot. Feels like if he would just drive it every once in a while to remind teams he can do that, he'd get much better looks from 3

[Edited on December 21, 2025 at 1:36 PM. Reason : LOL, dude flopped himself into a block call]

12/21/2025 1:31:42 PM

dmspack
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Yep, it’s McNeil!

12/21/2025 1:37:32 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"^ I feel like McNeil keeps forcing shots up over tightly played defense and it is affecting his shooting motion a lot. Feels like if he would just drive it every once in a while to remind teams he can do that, he'd get much better looks from 3"


He’s had a couple open looks he’s missed but definitely has forced a few up. I agree, putting the ball on the floor and trying to get a better look or draw foul is something he needs to add to his game

12/21/2025 1:38:41 PM

StTexan
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Heck yeah I have the ability to watch 2 things at same time!

12/21/2025 1:40:00 PM

dmspack
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Beginning to understand why they’re called Ole Miss

On account of all the missed shots.

12/21/2025 1:44:25 PM

StTexan
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Score isn't as close as i thought after you talked about us going cold

12/21/2025 1:45:03 PM

Talage
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Cold is relative. He meant 2026 top 20 offense cold. Not 2019, put up 24 points in a game against VT cold.

12/21/2025 1:49:04 PM

rwoody
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Quote :
"Beginning to understand why they’re called Ole Miss

On account of all the missed shots."


A+

12/21/2025 2:08:56 PM

Talage
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Rumors that McNeil reads TWW on his phone while on the bench have been confirmed.

12/21/2025 2:17:43 PM

Talage
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Paul McNylon

12/21/2025 2:27:56 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"Score isn't as close as i thought after you talked about us going cold
"


Yeah we went up 14-5 then went on like a 4 minute scoring drought. But Ole Miss only scored like 2 points in that stretch as well.

12/21/2025 2:30:09 PM

dmspack
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Unnecessarily tight whistle in the second half of a blow out. Fun!

9 fouls on State in the first 20 minutes. Now 7 fouls in the first 9 mins of 2H

[Edited on December 21, 2025 at 2:36 PM. Reason : H]

12/21/2025 2:35:42 PM

dmspack
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We’ve reached the portion of the broadcast where UNC gets all the praise in a game they aren’t even playing in.

12/21/2025 2:37:52 PM

justinh524
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No longer a blowout btw

12/21/2025 2:42:15 PM

dmspack
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What the fuck with these god awful in bounds passes

12/21/2025 2:48:23 PM

justinh524
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Honestly the worst I've ever seen from a state team. Don't even remotely try to get open, just throw it into coverage.

12/21/2025 3:00:10 PM

dmspack
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Yeah 2 basically uncontested steals for Ole Miss on under the basket inbounds plays. Just lollipopped it up to absolutely nobody.

12/21/2025 3:02:39 PM

dmspack
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lol at these announcers slurping Chris Beard for his shitty team only losing by 14 lol

12/21/2025 3:03:53 PM

justinh524
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Ole Miss is going to win like 3 SEC games.

12/21/2025 3:04:46 PM

dmspack
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But Chris Beard sent a strong message because he’s a great coach and that little white guard played his heart out

12/21/2025 3:05:56 PM

dmspack
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Good win. Had to have it. DW is still MIA. Offense can really bog down at times. Multiple scoring droughts in this one. Defense was pretty awesome for like 25 minutes and it was outta reach…can’t fault them too much for the sloppy second half in a blowout.

12/21/2025 3:07:55 PM

justinh524
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Chris Beard is a great coach if by coach you mean domestic abuser

^Williams is averaging slightly more points than last season despite a lower usage rate. If you want him to take over games, you have to take the ball out of copeland's hands and put it in his. He's not going to do that when he's standing in the corner while Copeland dribbles and probes the defense for 15 seconds. This isn't even me shitting on Copeland because he's been very effective, especially against overmatched opponents, but I just don't think he and Williams complement each other very well on offense. It's not a fit and it shows.

12/21/2025 3:07:57 PM

dmspack
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Correct. Saw somebody say this game featured 2 of the most hated coaches and uh…yeah it’s fine to dislike Wade but he and Beard don’t remotely belong in the same conversation in terms of transgressions.

12/21/2025 3:11:38 PM

StTexan
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What transgressions does wade have?

12/21/2025 3:19:00 PM

justinh524
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Well he got fired at LSU for cheating . Also he just comes off as a dick. Like i wouldn't want to hang out with him, which is probably more concerning than the cheating thing!

12/21/2025 3:21:03 PM

StTexan
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Crazy, just talked to GPT about it. I guess thats the best we could get

12/21/2025 3:42:02 PM

dmspack
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Really not trying to complain too much about a very comfortable win against an SEC team. But DW’s recent performances are very concerning. Breed and Musa don’t bring much to the table offensively. Able has really seemed to cool off after a strong start to the year. DW is MIA. That’s 4 guys and we only play like 8. That’s a bit concerning. And Wade has said as much after the last couple games. To me this is why the metric talk and tournament stuff is all kinda premature and just missing the point. Watching the games the deficiencies and holes are obvious. Q has been playing out of his mind recently. That’s great. But If Q is our best player we aren’t gonna go very far. It’s super encouraging to see PM get going the last 2 games. We desperately need that.

[Edited on December 21, 2025 at 4:16 PM. Reason : Mfer can’t spell ]

12/21/2025 4:11:33 PM

justinh524
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I'm just not sure Copeland being the focal point of the offense is actually making our team better. Like yeah he's putting up good individual numbers and he gets assists when guys hit threes off his drives, but that is like the extent of this offense. If you aren't Copeland you're basically just waiting around. That's great if we're hitting 3 points, but if we aren't we're screwed. And it's fun to watch against overmatched opponents but there's no plan B when it fails against good teams.

It's kinda reminds me of the gottfried team the year he let Barber run the show. He put up huge numbers by dominating the ball, but didn't really make anyone around him better and it showed in that team's record.

12/21/2025 4:27:54 PM

dmspack
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I don’t think the offense was designed for Q to be the focal point. But I think there’s not much other choice for now. Holloman can’t really penetrate and kick like Q. McNeil is just a shooter. DW is, again, MIA. Q being the focal point is kinda the only option

12/21/2025 4:37:11 PM

justinh524
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Yeah i just don't have a lot of faith that this team is going to finish very highly in the ACC.

12/21/2025 4:41:10 PM

Talage
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Good thing your faith has zero influence on it .

12/21/2025 5:05:43 PM

rwoody
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Even when we were up alot I yelled at my TV a couple times when DW got the ball wide open and passed. Im hesitant to be the first to say this but I really think he's been MIA....


Really though, it's puzzling, it's like hes just going through the motions out there.

12/21/2025 5:11:04 PM

StTexan
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I think the first game I watched he had 30+ and I was thinking he was a baller. But then since I feel like he has been MIA

12/21/2025 5:26:21 PM

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