Saved by the whistle

3/15/2018 2:25:03 PM

I hope a 7/10 matchup wouldn't nuke your bracket. I assume you have Dook winning on Saturday anyway.

3/15/2018 2:27:54 PM

Yeah of course, how else would NC State get to beat them to get into the Final 4?

3/15/2018 2:33:42 PM

Don't know how anybody picks Oklahoma in this game with how they finished their season.

3/15/2018 2:38:59 PM

[Edited on March 15, 2018 at 2:46 PM. Reason : f]

3/15/2018 2:45:01 PM

^^to be fair, URI lost 3 of their last 5 including a 30 point loss to sub .500 St Joe's. and then only beat them by 3 in the conference tourney rematch.

but yeah, OU had been spiraling down for much longer.

3/15/2018 3:00:26 PM

almost nailed the UNCG upset pick. bracket is still in good shape though.

3/15/2018 3:52:27 PM

I forgot I picked Loyola

3/15/2018 4:04:04 PM

NC State’s about to nuke my bracket.

[Edited on March 15, 2018 at 5:19 PM. Reason : Lol I posted a phone emoji by accident]

3/15/2018 5:19:06 PM

Miami had a pretty disappointing season.

3/15/2018 5:30:50 PM

We had a pretty disappointing March

3/15/2018 5:52:20 PM

Unless UVA wins the whole thing I'm done.

3/15/2018 7:20:14 PM

Was perfect until we/my national champions lost.

3/15/2018 7:26:01 PM

i didn't have arizona winning it all but my bracket is pretty much busted

[Edited on March 15, 2018 at 11:47 PM. Reason : and i'm not even mad]

3/15/2018 11:47:08 PM

Man, how does Arizona suck with all that talent they got.

3/15/2018 11:52:45 PM

Loluva

3/16/2018 11:47:41 PM

welp. that whole region is nuked for me.

1,3,4, all gone.

now kentucky's in business.

3/16/2018 11:50:01 PM

Quote :

"Unless UVA wins the whole thing I'm done."

I quit.

3/17/2018 1:35:20 AM

I'm not trying to poopoo the UVA pickers, but as you picked your bracket and got to the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, didn't you have some hunch that they would once again under-perform based on their seed? I know we can be biased in ACC country, but just wondering. Nobody saw a first round exit, but how do you watch them since Bennett got there and think they'll go all the way?

I had Arizona losing in the national championship game, so I'm only one round less retarded than y'all

[Edited on March 17, 2018 at 1:43 AM. Reason : .]

3/17/2018 1:42:12 AM

At full strength, I would have had them going all the way.

3/17/2018 2:10:23 AM

Quote :

"Nobody saw a first round exit, but how do you watch them since Bennett got there and think they'll go all the way?"

3/17/2018 3:43:55 AM

I picked UVa outta that region because I didn’t trust UK or Zona to knock them out. The Fightin’ Jibbles and Cincy are good, but didn’t seem like teams that UVa couldn’t beat. I just trusted UVa more than I trusted Tennessee or cincy. I totally get their history and looking at how they’ve underachieved in the NCAAT in the past under Bennett. Just seemed like there was no team that seemed all that “scary” for UVa to get by. Looking at other regions, I’d have been more likely to pick UVa to lose earlier if Purdue was in their bracket, or Gonzaga, or Michigan maybe. It wasn’t blind faith in UVa that made me pick them, just seemed like they were the best team in a region where there were some good but not great teams. Obviously all that sounds silly now that they lost to UMBC. But

3/17/2018 6:31:13 AM

had msu over unc final

3/18/2018 7:27:38 PM

Still got my whole elite 8 although I'd accept losing Duke

3/18/2018 7:46:50 PM

^^that was a dumb pick. roy owns izzo in the tourney.

3/18/2018 7:59:33 PM

Roy owns no one this year.

3/18/2018 8:18:43 PM

This year is fukin bonkers.

3/18/2018 9:06:21 PM

Spoke too soon!

3/19/2018 12:11:31 AM

Quote :

"Nobody saw a first round exit, but how do you watch them since Bennett got there and think they'll go all the way?"

They didn't just win the ACC, they dominated it. They beat UNC twice, beat Clemson twice, won at Cameron Indoor. Hell, if you want to include the weaker ACC teams that made the Sweet 16, they beat Syracuse twice and won at FSU. Did you watch any of those games and think "man, I know they're up by double digits AGAIN, but these guys are not as good as the other team, no way they're going to win multiple games in a row against good competition...?"

I know a lot of us think Boeheim is a prick, but he's speaking the truth here:

https://youtu.be/e96uAm89EiY?t=606

3/19/2018 5:04:40 AM

Nah, he is just a prick.

It's so intellectually lazy to just call the other side idiots or unemployed losers rather than have an actual discussion about the merits of Virginia's gimmicky system (or different reffing or lack of talent or whatever you think it is) being the reason why they underperform in the NCAA tournament. Not that he probably gives two fucks about what people are saying about UVA or has any need to talk about it in a press conference about his team, but if you are going to comment at all then have some class and don't just dismiss the other side.

Pat fucking Forde wrote a piece about UVA's failures. He is one of the more mainstream and respected college bball journalists in the country. More than half the posters on this very board didn't expect UVA to do much and only picked them in their bracket because they had such an easy draw. It's not just some looney fringe who want to discuss why UVA chokes on the biggest stage.

3/19/2018 10:53:43 AM

its only happened once actually and the idea that they underperformed before that was a misconception because they had lost games to teams with even or superior talent. you camt just look at seeds but even if ypu do, it happens to the best programs. its the nature of the tournament.

uva has an advantage of familiarity in the acc which maked it easier for them to over0erform more consistently. overperforming to get a high seed doesnt mesan you have underperformed when you lose to a lower seed. i expected them to lose to arizona which would not have been underperforming.

3/19/2018 11:02:26 AM

you use a bunch of words to not ever say much at all.

it's truly amazing.

3/19/2018 11:28:11 AM

Oh I see. Earl is now the arbiter of what constitutes underperforming. While the rest of the free world sees losing to a seed that is lower than yours underperforming to varying degrees (something they have done 5 of 6 years in the tournament under bennett), Earl says that's actually not underperforming because HE saw that those teams they lost against were better than their seed indicated.

Yes, even the best coaches underperform in the NCAA tournament occasionally, but none of them make it a habit the way your boy Bennett does.

Do you know how many times Izzo's teams have lost to a team seeded 6+ spots lower than them? Twice. One of them was his first year at MSU--1995-- and the second was this year. Bennett has 3 since 2012.

Do you know how many times an Izzo team has been a #1 seed and not made it to the final four? Once in 23 years. Bennett already has 3.

Now we could have a debate as to why this keeps happening. But to dismiss it outright or to bury your head in the sand and pretend like it's actually not underperforming at all is absurd.

[Edited on March 19, 2018 at 12:44 PM. Reason : d]

3/19/2018 12:41:59 PM

Quote :

"Pat fucking Forde wrote a piece hot take about UVA's failures in order to drive up website views "

FTFY

3/19/2018 12:54:21 PM

^eh, i dont think that's Forde's style per se. But even if it was, does the fact that such a hot take was sure to drive thousands of views prove or disprove the fact that it was only a miniscule subset of unemployed idiot losers who thought that way?

Here is a pretty reasonable take on UVA this year from a Cavs site: https://virginia.rivals.com/news/column-sorting-fact-from-fiction-in-uva-s-exit-is-a-difficult-endeavor

Unlike Earl, they at least acknowledge a problem and search for small tweaks in the system to help them be more successful going forward. Sounds about right.

3/19/2018 2:53:10 PM

I've said it before and I'll say it again: The cabal of ACC refereeing has allowed ACC team branding to determine the outcome of games rather than gameplay.

They study "tendencies," and they are biased in the tendencies they find by their understanding of what " basketball" is branded as. The result is unconsciously helping team who are "supposed" to win, win. When the ACC refs go away, the ACC performance in the NCAAT is all over the place.

3/19/2018 3:49:44 PM

ya'll need to stop arguing with earl about UVA, because even responding to his nonsense is making you look foolish.

3/19/2018 4:06:00 PM

UVA constantly under-performing in the NCAA is a mixture of:

- their deliberate rate on offense lets teams stick around (limiting possessions reduces number of opportunities for the better team to pull away)
- they can only play slow (see syracuse 2016)
- pack line is great during the regular season but falls apart against talented guards (that can penetrate) and teams that shoot with confidence (which coincidentally fits the profile of teams that excel in the tournament)
- lack of elite recruits (due to Bennett wanting to be clean OR high level recruits not wanting to play UVA's style

Last year we saw USC make the final four with a slow plodding style and a suffocating defense so its not like UVA will never make the FF. USC had Thornwell and didn't play the pack-line so maybe the comparison isn't valid.

Bart Torvik's website compares the resume of previous teams using offensive and defensive efficiencies and tempos. Of the ten teams most similar to UVA, only one advanced to the elite 8 (UVA 2016).

http://barttorvik.com/profile-compare.php

3/19/2018 4:07:11 PM

Quote :

"so its not like UVA will never make the FF."

No, they will not.

3/19/2018 4:10:31 PM

do you know how many bad teams/programs have made the Final Four?

saying a top-tier program never will is absurd

3/19/2018 4:15:39 PM

Can a Tony Bennet led UVA team that's built on the same offense/defensive system over the past several seasons make the Final Four? I mean anything is possible, but they just lost to a fucking 16 seed, so forgive me for doubting them.

3/19/2018 4:23:03 PM

No surprise Boeheim is defending Bennett. He's been a head coach for 42 years and has 1 title to show for it. But he does have 5 Final 4 appearances, so that's pretty good.

[Edited on March 19, 2018 at 4:50 PM. Reason : I'm Jim Boeheim, I hate Greensboro]

3/19/2018 4:50:12 PM

^^im not even trying to defend Tony Bennett or UVa. But Coach K and Izzo have both lost to a 15 seed - not quite the same thing - but let’s not act like a major upset is the nail in the coffin for future teams made up of totally different players. It’s totally fair to question how good this system is in the tournament and what its downfalls are. But that one game isn’t proof of any future success or lack of success.

[Edited on March 19, 2018 at 7:11 PM. Reason : H]

[Edited on March 19, 2018 at 7:12 PM. Reason : A]

3/19/2018 7:11:12 PM

Quote :

"While the rest of the free world sees losing to a seed that is lower than yours underperforming to varying degrees (something they have done 5 of 6 years in the tournament under bennett), Earl says that's actually not underperforming because HE saw that those teams they lost against were better than their seed indicated. "

I'm not Earl but it wasn't me that saw the teams were better than the seed indicated, it was the experts who made the rankings at the start of the season based on very precise statistics from previous seasons as well as overall player talent.

"Underperform" is a relative term and references some starting point in terms of expectations. This debate really just comes down to where you consider the starting point. You seem to be using selection sunday as the starting point of expectations while I am using the start of the season expectations. You can't just look at seeds. Seeds mean nothing once the ball is tipped. Kentucky is a 5 seed with top 5 talent. Arizona was a 4 seed with Top 3 talent. FSU and Xavier have similar talent levels but an 8 seed difference.

Duke Michigan State and Arizona were clearly the best teams in the country at the start of the year and all underperformed. UVA is not like these teams and is on a much lower level in terms of talent more like us. Virginia was ranked in the 30s by most and overperformed so much that in the end, they were expected to do better than even the teams with the most talent. Thats moving the goal posts. Even if you consider the regular season and conference tournament meaningless exhibitions, UVA's success there was the sole reason for them to be expected to win any games in the tournament.

Quote :

"Do you know how many times Izzo's teams have lost to a team seeded 6+ spots lower than them? Twice. One of them was his first year at MSU--1995-- and the second was this year. Bennett has 3 since 2012. "

Alternative facts.

Quote :

"Now we could have a debate as to why this keeps happening. But to dismiss it outright or to bury your head in the sand and pretend like it's actually not underperforming at all is absurd. "

I've explained it. Virginia is a program that consistently has top 40 talent but their superior coaching and execution fools people into thinking they are a top 10 team. Then, when they have a poor shooting night, their talent isn't able to carry them through the storm like it might for a team with exceptional talent.

Quote :

"When the ACC refs go away, the ACC performance in the NCAAT is all over the place."

Well anytime you switch from a large sample size and only base your conclusion on the final data point, the conclusion is going to be pretty random. Its a pretty wild claim even if the data supported it (it doesn't). I might understand the argument if UVA was getting away with illegal screens then being called for them in the tourney (they aren't). The common thread in their tournament losses has been extremely poor 3 point shooting. Really just sounds like bitter state fan.

This loss is bad but imagine previous years If only Bennett had thrown away a bunch of regular season and ACCT games and done the same thing in the tournament as lower seeds, you guys would be worshipping him for "overperforming" in the tournament and making it as far as he did before losing to michigan state twice, florida, and Syracuse.

You aren't only ignoring his regular season success, you are penalizing him for it by basing his success off of seed performance. I can't help but wonder how our sweet 16 exits would be viewed if we won the ACC and earned a 1 seed.

[Edited on March 20, 2018 at 4:58 AM. Reason : i don't remember anyone being disappointed to only make the sweet 16]

3/20/2018 4:53:59 AM

Quote :

" Do you know how many times Izzo's teams have lost to a team seeded 6+ spots lower than them? Twice. One of them was his first year at MSU--1995-- and the second was this year. Bennett has 3 since 2012."

heathcote was the coach when they lost in '95 to a 14 seed. izzo's first two teams went to the NIT. he lost in 2016 to a 15 seed. so your number (2 times) is correct, i believe. but you can say, in 2 of the last 3 years Izzo has lost to a team seeded 6+ spots lower. and hasn't made it out of the first weekend in the last 3 years. obviously Izzo's a great coach regardless of that.

hell, coach k has lost to both a 14 and 15 seed. that's not a flattering stat, but it doesn't take away from his greatness. weird things happen in the tournament. bennett is obviously a very good coach with a very specific style. he's also still really young and has a lot of years left to coach and he can still change the narrative around him and his style.

i'm not gonna agree with e man that they haven't truly "underperformed"...that's a silly argument.

3/20/2018 7:18:51 AM

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/31/ncaa-351-team-preseason-rankings-projections-seeds
UVA underperformed friday, I've said that all along.

they were supposed to be an 8 seed and overperformed all year to earn a 1. So yes they underperformed in 1 game and overperformed in many more.

[Edited on March 21, 2018 at 12:36 PM. Reason : i can't think of a modern program that has underperformed their talent less than this program ]

3/21/2018 12:32:49 PM

What a dumb fucking argument this has devolved into.

3/21/2018 1:11:33 PM

preseason predictions by media members are apparently the gospel now

3/21/2018 5:25:12 PM

^Its not media making it. I know you hate statistics but here is the explanation.

Quote :

"The system uses college and AAU statistics, recruiting rankings and coaching data to project every Division I player and team. For a deeper look at how the system works, read this explainer. In the next installment of our preview, we’re revealing how our model stacks up every Division I team at the outset of the season according to projected margin of victory, which we calculated by combining each team’s predicted offensive and defensive output. SI’s 1–351 ranking has been more accurate than similar 1–351 rankings produced by ESPN, CBS Sports and noted analyst Ken Pomeroy for three consecutive years."

https://yetanotherbasketblog.blogspot.com/2017/10/comparing-preseason-2016-17-preseason.html


Zooming out a bit

Quote :

"Syracuse held Arizona State, TCU and Michigan State—teams that are still ranked 18th, 10th and 13th, respectively, in adjusted offensive efficiency—to 56 points or fewer."

Three really good offensive teams that had trouble with a slow style. I havne't done the research, but I recall a lot more late tournament games in the 60s and 70s than in the 80s. and certainly more games played in the 50s than in the 90s. On the surface, it seems that pace of play generally slows down later in the tournament.

2010 was a crazy low scoring tournament and a ff game had 102 combined.

3/21/2018 7:15:02 PM

oh, my bad

Quote :

"preseason predictions by media members are apparently the gospel now"

3/21/2018 9:33:57 PM