goalielax All American 11252 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Colts have much easier schedule" |
Wilson will have played Arizona twice, St. Louis twice, Carolina, Detroit, NYJ, Miami, and Buffalo. A combined 40-64-1 from 9 games on their schedule...and they lost three of them
again, seahawks opponents have ONE more win that colts opponents do
Quote : | "Lol at passing yards as a significant stat in determining the quality of a qb" |
agree wholeheartedly - much more important to look at things like game winning drives, percent of total offense accounted for, and total wins
[Edited on December 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM. Reason : .] 12/24/2012 5:21:53 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Lol at passing yards as a significant stat in determining the quality of a qb" |
not every rookie QB can have one of the best running games to support him] 12/24/2012 5:22:45 PM
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skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
Jay Davis was better than Russell Wilson, too 12/24/2012 5:25:00 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
Andrew Luck = Jay Davis
got it 12/24/2012 5:25:42 PM
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sand robot Sand Lion 2227 Posts user info edit post |
Of the rookie QB's Luck has the best WRs and TEs by far 12/24/2012 5:42:18 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
Look dude the colts fucking blow. They are 70:1 to win the super bowl despite being 10-5 and clinched the playoffs.
To put that in perspective the cowboys who probably won't make the playoffs are 50:1. The seahawks are 8:1. The Redskins of all teams are 25:1.
The colts suck hard and luck is a totally average QB right now.
RG3 and RW are assets to their team. Yeah, they're not peyton manning or tom Brady, but they are good QBs. Luck is not yet.
Why is it no one wants to admit a black QB can be better than a white one. We had the same issue when everyone kept saying glennon and rivers were better than Wilson.
[Edited on December 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM. Reason : a] 12/24/2012 6:00:14 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
I'd take Cam over the white rookie, the black rookie and the white/black rookie
but you also thought Michael Vick was a Golden God, so you clearly have some racial bias of your own] 12/24/2012 6:21:05 PM
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hypaone All American 11084 Posts user info edit post |
Just wanted to post this... again.
![](photos/00508703.JPG) 12/24/2012 6:30:51 PM
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Jrb599 All American 8845 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "You're correct. You could make a solid argument they are only better than 5 teams in the NFL. " |
This is actually true but a lot of sites that post power rankings based on statistics. Colts do not rank well in the NFL. 12/24/2012 9:11:53 PM
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justinh524 Sprots Talk Mod 27566 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | " I'd take Cam over the white rookie, the black rookie and the white/black rookie" |
I wouldn't. I'd take griffin first. Then Wilson.
Cam isn't accurate enough down the field for my tastes. 12/25/2012 10:22:44 AM
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sand robot Sand Lion 2227 Posts user info edit post |
Cam plays great when it doesnt matter 12/25/2012 10:37:53 AM
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ndmetcal All American 9012 Posts user info edit post |
^Cam Newton = Matt Moore exposed? 12/25/2012 11:16:36 AM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
Look QB passer rating isnt the be all , end all statistic or anything but since I assume you are all familiar with it...
RG3. 104.2, #2 overall in the league.
RW. 98.0, #7 overall in the league.
Luck. 75.6, #29 overall in the league behind BLAINE GABBERT.
Hes 10 points behind CARSON PALMER.
Seriously, this isn't a discussion. You could argue that Luck is one of the worst QBs in the league this year and you wouldn't be too far off. You'd be wrong, he's solidly ~20th best, but you'd have a better argument than if you tried to pretend he's the ROY. 12/25/2012 12:14:52 PM
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tower All American 12280 Posts user info edit post |
I would absolutely trade Cam for Russell.
I'm not sure about RG3. RG3 is a better QB but we all saw how playing 10-12 games a year worked for Vick in Atlanta. 12/25/2012 12:37:59 PM
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skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
Pretty soon griffin is going to be running dog fighting games and going to jail 12/25/2012 12:48:50 PM
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ctnz71 All American 7207 Posts user info edit post |
^ I thought he didn't represent that community??? 12/25/2012 2:17:36 PM
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dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
I think that was a joke, on account of the media always comparing him to Vick simp,y because he is black 12/25/2012 2:28:44 PM
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spooner All American 1860 Posts user info edit post |
So people itt would seriously rather have Russell than luck or rgIII? Ummmm. Ok... I want to remember this in 3 years time.
Russell, no knock against him, EASILY has the superior supporting cast to luck (especially) and griffin. Yes, I know, TY Hilton and an old Reggie Wayne are like Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt in their primes the Seahawks running game and o-line are tremendous, and it's not like Sidney rice and golden Tate are awful at WR. Look, I'm rooting for Russell to win ROY and have a fantastic career, but to act like he's hands-down going to be worlds better than luck or griffin based on just how well he's played the last few games is fucking absurd. 12/25/2012 2:39:42 PM
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tower All American 12280 Posts user info edit post |
rg3 is much better but dude is getting killed out there. pretty sure he's going to have more concussions than a white slot WR by year 5
luck will probably end up better. it's hard to tell right now because they're on completely different teams. RW is the equivalent of mcelroy at alabama and Luck is RW with shitty TOB coaching 12/25/2012 2:43:49 PM
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spooner All American 1860 Posts user info edit post |
As a saints fan, I remember a 2nd-year Aaron Brooks playing very well when he came in for an injured Jeff Blake during the 2000 season. In 5 starts he threw for 1500 yards and 9 tds, and also rushed for 170 yards and another 2 tds. He then led the saints to their first ever playoff victory, over the defending super bowl champion rams. After that season everyone thought Brooks was going to be a perennial pro-bowler. Ummm, naw.
My point is, you can't really gauge young quarterbacks with any certainty off of 6-7 games. Simmer down. 12/25/2012 2:54:35 PM
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titans78 All American 4032 Posts user info edit post |
^^ analogies are pretty bad.
Luck gets credit because he is leading the worst team last year to playoffs this year while losing their head coach.
Stats and performance matter little because people love the luck/colts story and will vote accordingly.
All 3 are playing really well, can't go wrong with any. And as far as stats go the amount Luck is asked to throw skews things(both good and bad) but I'd love to see Luck's 4th quarter stats.
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 2:58 PM. Reason : .] 12/25/2012 2:58:14 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
I'm not saying anything about their career potential.
Just saying luck isn't any good yet and RG3 and RW already are. That should be obvious to anyone with a pulse.
RW has played flawlessly for the past several weeks. Seriously this is the dumbest discussion ever, the RW hate is far too strong around here 12/25/2012 3:00:02 PM
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skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
No one is saying Wilson is better than Griffin. We are saying he's better than Luck. I'd give the nod to Griffin.
It's quite arguable whether or not the colts had the worst team since they tanked on purpose. They certainly had the easiest schedule in the NFL this year, though. That's a fact. 12/25/2012 3:01:50 PM
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tower All American 12280 Posts user info edit post |
Griffin lost the ROY when he went down and Kirk Cousins won 2 games for him.
He's only 15 games into his career and has already failed to finish 3 of them. I don't care about the rest of your stats. If your QB can't stay on the field your team is fucked. 12/25/2012 3:05:57 PM
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spooner All American 1860 Posts user info edit post |
^^^ I agree, he has played amazingly the last few weeks. And I've enjoyed watching it, no doubt. And in a head to head matchup, I'd take the Seahawks over the Redskins or Colts all day.
My choice for ROY would be RGIII though - been playing at a consistently high level all season, #2 in passer rating, and is leading his team to the playoffs despite all the injuries that depleted their defense early in the season.
I think we can all agree that regardless of who wins ROY this has been an unprecedented year for rookie QBs. And it's been run to watch. I mean, most years Alfred Morris would be a shoo-in for ROY, and he's not even really in the conversation.
^ that's why it's good they got Kirk Cousins then! Part of the master plan! ![](images/smile.gif)
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:09 PM. Reason : .]
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:11 PM. Reason : .] 12/25/2012 3:08:10 PM
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skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85192/wilson-luck-vs-same-eight-opponents
Wilson vs Luck vs common opponents through the Bills game. The passing stats difference is huge.
Completion %, yards per attempt, TDs, Ints
So against the same opponents, Wilson did much better in passing categories. If Wilson had the easiest fucking schedule in the NFL, his stats would be even more dominant. You would absolutely pick wilson over Luck for your team.
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:11 PM. Reason : .] 12/25/2012 3:11:22 PM
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spooner All American 1860 Posts user info edit post |
No, no I wouldn't pick Russell over luck. But let's revisit this in 2 years. 12/25/2012 3:13:57 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
I like how it says Wilson is 6-2 in those games with 17 passing TDs and 1 interception, when anybody who actually watched the Packers game knows he's 5-3 with 16 TDs and 2 picks 12/25/2012 3:16:10 PM
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ndmetcal All American 9012 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "After that season everyone thought Brooks was going to be a perennial pro-bowler. Ummm, naw." |
Advanced metrics still had Brooks rated as a bottom half of the league QB in 2000 though (along with every other season of Brook's career except for 2003)
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:27 PM. Reason : unless you're comparing Brooks to Luck] 12/25/2012 3:26:59 PM
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spooner All American 1860 Posts user info edit post |
^ Two things: one, he was basically a rookie and people projected a learning curve. And two, no one was using advanced metrics for scouting QBs 12 years ago. But sure, in hindsight I'm sure you're right. Good work. 12/25/2012 3:31:24 PM
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tower All American 12280 Posts user info edit post |
advanced metrics still have a long way to go in football and conventional stats lie a TON too
then again, i'm sure russ went from a ~60% passer to a 70%+ passer in one college offseason 12/25/2012 3:36:58 PM
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spooner All American 1860 Posts user info edit post |
I mean, I understand that these metrics are trying to show a true reflection of how good someone's past performance was, but they aren't a great way at projecting the future. Anyhow. So while they may show that griffin and Wilson have had better rookie years than luck, they have to be taken with a grain of salt when predicting their future success.
But to move on, I'm really hoping for a Washington-Seattle first round playoff game. That would be fun to watch.
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:46 PM. Reason : .] 12/25/2012 3:45:54 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
Rookie of the year has nothing to do with career potential.
Luck has a great career ahead of him in all likelihood. But he shouldn't even be in the ROY conversation because he wasn't good this year and these other two guys were. 12/25/2012 3:49:41 PM
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ndmetcal All American 9012 Posts user info edit post |
The initial statements were
Quote : | "Wilson and RG3 are both top ten QBs this year obviously." |
Quote : | "for what it's worth, i agree with rg3 & wilson being top 10 qbs this season" |
Others are the ones trying to bring future success into the conversation. Neither I nor face have made any such statements regarding future success for any of the 3 rookie QBs
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 4:01 PM. Reason : i feel dirty coming to the defense of face] 12/25/2012 4:00:45 PM
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dtownral Suspended 26632 Posts user info edit post |
^^ 12/25/2012 4:12:16 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
lol at Luck "not being good this year"
its like people make statements about him without ever watching him play 12/25/2012 4:15:54 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
He wasn't. Good for a rookie maybe, but not good compared to the starting QB in the NFL 12/25/2012 4:20:17 PM
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tower All American 12280 Posts user info edit post |
i havent watched every colts game this year but when i have i dont look at them and think "man, this qb sucks"
conversely, i do see say that watching the bengals eventhough dalton wins and his stats look ok 12/25/2012 4:42:00 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
Dalton is a good comparison with Luck. They had very similar seasons. 12/25/2012 5:02:42 PM
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skokiaan All American 26447 Posts user info edit post |
This is a comparison of the QBs passing stats, only (add in the run stats, and Wilson and RG3 look even better). It's what the QB's actual Yds/Att was in the game versus what that passing defense normally allows (expected).
http://i49.tinypic.com/sngigp.png
![](http://i49.tinypic.com/sngigp.png)
This normalizes for differences in number of attempts and strength of opposing passing defense (We do see that Wilson has faced the tougher pass defenses).
We see that Wilson and Griffin are throwing for more than what opposing defenses normally allow, and we can clearly see how much Wilson has improved in the second half -- Wilson is the hottest QB right now.
For further reference:
BRADY ten 7.610000 7.500000 101.466667 ari 6.870000 6.800000 101.029412 bal 8.170000 7.100000 115.070423 buf 9.440000 6.900000 136.811594 den 7.190000 6.500000 110.615385 sea 6.810000 6.200000 109.838710 nyj 6.170000 6.400000 96.406250 stl 8.690000 7.000000 124.142857 buf 6.240000 6.900000 90.434783 ind 9.460000 7.400000 127.837838 nyj 11.960000 6.400000 186.875000 mia 5.950000 7.000000 85.000000 hou 8.460000 6.700000 126.268657 sf 6.820000 6.100000 111.803279 jac 6.510000 7.300000 89.178082 AVG 7.756667 6.813333 114.185262
RIVERS oak 7.000000 7.500000 93.333333 ten 8.880000 7.500000 118.400000 atl 4.550000 7.400000 61.486486 kc 9.090000 7.800000 116.538462 no 8.430000 8.100000 104.074074 den 5.880000 6.500000 90.461538 cle 4.530000 7.000000 64.714286 kc 11.000000 7.800000 141.025641 tb 9.110000 8.100000 112.469136 den 6.450000 6.500000 99.230769 bal 6.330000 7.100000 89.154930 cin 5.830000 6.800000 85.735294 pit 4.880000 6.000000 81.333333 car 5.260000 6.800000 77.352941 nyj 7.500000 6.400000 117.187500 AVG 6.981333 7.153333 96.833182
WEEDEN phi 3.370000 7.400000 45.540541 cin 8.700000 6.800000 127.941176 buf 5.510000 6.900000 79.855072 bal 6.150000 7.100000 86.619718 nyg 8.310000 8.200000 101.341463 cin 7.970000 6.800000 117.205882 ind 6.440000 7.400000 87.027027 sd 4.780000 7.000000 68.285714 bal 4.760000 7.100000 67.042254 dal 6.000000 7.700000 77.922078 pit 6.080000 6.000000 101.333333 oak 10.110000 7.500000 134.800000 kc 7.230000 7.800000 92.692308 was 6.970000 7.500000 92.933333 den 5.470000 6.500000 84.153846 AVG 6.523333 7.180000 90.979583
DALTON bal 5.970000 7.100000 84.084507 cle 10.260000 7.000000 146.571429 was 12.150000 7.500000 162.000000 jac 7.870000 7.300000 107.808219 mia 5.440000 7.000000 77.714286 cle 8.280000 7.000000 118.285714 pit 3.750000 6.000000 62.500000 den 7.120000 6.500000 109.538462 nyg 6.630000 8.200000 80.853659 kc 7.930000 7.800000 101.666667 oak 7.000000 7.500000 93.333333 sd 5.550000 7.000000 79.285714 dal 6.240000 7.700000 81.038961 phi 4.700000 7.400000 63.513514 pit 6.780000 6.000000 113.000000 AVG 7.044667 7.133333 98.746298
We all agree that Rivers has a terrible offensive line and Rivers is worse than Wilson this year. Thus, can we all agree that Luck has been more like Rivers this season, therefore Luck has been worse than Wilson this year?
Is anyone willing to argue that Rivers should be an MVP candidate because his team sucks???
Bottom line: Wilson and Griffin are in Brady's class. Luck is in Rivers' class.
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 9:50 PM. Reason : Add dalton -- dunno if his OL is bad] 12/25/2012 9:44:59 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
Pretty much sums it up and doesn't even address lucks princess turnover status 12/25/2012 9:56:03 PM
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ndmetcal All American 9012 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "Add dalton -- dunno if his OL is bad" |
No, I'd say Cincy's OL is top 10
Also, your post didn't take into account the turnover factor either, which would only slant further towards RG3 & Wilson 12/25/2012 10:06:22 PM
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tower All American 12280 Posts user info edit post |
luck's advanced rushing stats actually lead the league early in the season because he converted a ton of 3rd downs and short yardage TDs. not sure if thats still the case 12/25/2012 10:11:14 PM
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GingaNinja All American 7177 Posts user info edit post |
This stats discussion is boring, can we get back to the RW/TOB argument please? 12/25/2012 10:13:02 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "add in the run stats, and Wilson and RG3 look even better" |
Luck has more rushing TDs then Wilson, who didn't have a single one until 2 weeks ago
where is face with some football Wins Produced numbers? I guarantee you Luck has produced more wins than either RG3 or Wilson, and that's face's holy bible when it comes to bball, so I'm not sure why he's so adamant to ignore it in football, unless his hatred of TOB and what-if scenario's about RW's senior season are clouding his judgment
Quote : | "rallydurham Suspended 11317 Posts user info edit post there you go with stats again...
if you watched the game, he flat out dominated us..." |
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 10:23 PM. Reason : .] 12/25/2012 10:18:24 PM
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face All American 8503 Posts user info edit post |
Actually luck is way behind RW and RG3 in DYAR. It's not even close.
Luck sucks compared to those two guys. 12/25/2012 10:24:43 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
doesn't DYAR use ESPN's QBR stat?] 12/25/2012 10:29:55 PM
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ndmetcal All American 9012 Posts user info edit post |
YAR, DYAR, & DVOA all predate QBR
[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 10:42 PM. Reason : by years] 12/25/2012 10:41:56 PM
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TreeTwista10 Forgetful Jones 148001 Posts user info edit post |
Vick apparently had a DYAR of -260 the year face declared him a Golden God
good for 43rd overall among NFL quarterbacks that season] 12/25/2012 10:58:37 PM
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AndyMac All American 31922 Posts user info edit post |
Quote : | "As a saints fan, I remember a 2nd-year Aaron Brooks playing very well when he came in for an injured Jeff Blake during the 2000 season. In 5 starts he threw for 1500 yards and 9 tds, and also rushed for 170 yards and another 2 tds. He then led the saints to their first ever playoff victory, over the defending super bowl champion rams. After that season everyone thought Brooks was going to be a perennial pro-bowler. Ummm, naw.
My point is, you can't really gauge young quarterbacks with any certainty off of 6-7 games. Simmer down. " |
So then what are you using to predict that Luck will have the best career? hype? 12/26/2012 12:05:26 AM
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