Quote :

"Colts have much easier schedule"

Wilson will have played Arizona twice, St. Louis twice, Carolina, Detroit, NYJ, Miami, and Buffalo. A combined 40-64-1 from 9 games on their schedule...and they lost three of them

again, seahawks opponents have ONE more win that colts opponents do

Quote :

"Lol at passing yards as a significant stat in determining the quality of a qb"

agree wholeheartedly - much more important to look at things like game winning drives, percent of total offense accounted for, and total wins

[Edited on December 24, 2012 at 5:23 PM. Reason : .]

12/24/2012 5:21:53 PM

Quote :

"Lol at passing yards as a significant stat in determining the quality of a qb"

not every rookie QB can have one of the best running games to support him

12/24/2012 5:22:45 PM

Jay Davis was better than Russell Wilson, too

12/24/2012 5:25:00 PM

Andrew Luck = Jay Davis

got it

12/24/2012 5:25:42 PM

Of the rookie QB's Luck has the best WRs and TEs by far

12/24/2012 5:42:18 PM

Look dude the colts fucking blow. They are 70:1 to win the super bowl despite being 10-5 and clinched the playoffs.

To put that in perspective the cowboys who probably won't make the playoffs are 50:1. The seahawks are 8:1. The Redskins of all teams are 25:1.

The colts suck hard and luck is a totally average QB right now.

RG3 and RW are assets to their team. Yeah, they're not peyton manning or tom Brady, but they are good QBs. Luck is not yet.

Why is it no one wants to admit a black QB can be better than a white one. We had the same issue when everyone kept saying glennon and rivers were better than Wilson.

[Edited on December 24, 2012 at 6:02 PM. Reason : a]

12/24/2012 6:00:14 PM

I'd take Cam over the white rookie, the black rookie and the white/black rookie

but you also thought Michael Vick was a Golden God, so you clearly have some racial bias of your own

12/24/2012 6:21:05 PM

Just wanted to post this... again.

12/24/2012 6:30:51 PM

Quote :

"You're correct. You could make a solid argument they are only better than 5 teams in the NFL. "

This is actually true but a lot of sites that post power rankings based on statistics. Colts do not rank well in the NFL.

12/24/2012 9:11:53 PM

Quote :

" I'd take Cam over the white rookie, the black rookie and the white/black rookie"

I wouldn't. I'd take griffin first. Then Wilson.

Cam isn't accurate enough down the field for my tastes.

12/25/2012 10:22:44 AM

Cam plays great when it doesnt matter

12/25/2012 10:37:53 AM

^Cam Newton = Matt Moore exposed?

12/25/2012 11:16:36 AM

Look QB passer rating isnt the be all , end all statistic or anything but since I assume you are all familiar with it...

RG3. 104.2, #2 overall in the league.

RW. 98.0, #7 overall in the league.

Luck. 75.6, #29 overall in the league behind BLAINE GABBERT.

Hes 10 points behind CARSON PALMER.

Seriously, this isn't a discussion. You could argue that Luck is one of the worst QBs in the league this year and you wouldn't be too far off. You'd be wrong, he's solidly ~20th best, but you'd have a better argument than if you tried to pretend he's the ROY.

12/25/2012 12:14:52 PM

I would absolutely trade Cam for Russell.

I'm not sure about RG3. RG3 is a better QB but we all saw how playing 10-12 games a year worked for Vick in Atlanta.

12/25/2012 12:37:59 PM

Pretty soon griffin is going to be running dog fighting games and going to jail

12/25/2012 12:48:50 PM

^ I thought he didn't represent that community???

12/25/2012 2:17:36 PM

I think that was a joke, on account of the media always comparing him to Vick simp,y because he is black

12/25/2012 2:28:44 PM

So people itt would seriously rather have Russell than luck or rgIII? Ummmm. Ok... I want to remember this in 3 years time.

Russell, no knock against him, EASILY has the superior supporting cast to luck (especially) and griffin. Yes, I know, TY Hilton and an old Reggie Wayne are like Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt in their primes the Seahawks running game and o-line are tremendous, and it's not like Sidney rice and golden Tate are awful at WR. Look, I'm rooting for Russell to win ROY and have a fantastic career, but to act like he's hands-down going to be worlds better than luck or griffin based on just how well he's played the last few games is fucking absurd.

12/25/2012 2:39:42 PM

rg3 is much better but dude is getting killed out there. pretty sure he's going to have more concussions than a white slot WR by year 5

luck will probably end up better. it's hard to tell right now because they're on completely different teams. RW is the equivalent of mcelroy at alabama and Luck is RW with shitty TOB coaching

12/25/2012 2:43:49 PM

As a saints fan, I remember a 2nd-year Aaron Brooks playing very well when he came in for an injured Jeff Blake during the 2000 season. In 5 starts he threw for 1500 yards and 9 tds, and also rushed for 170 yards and another 2 tds. He then led the saints to their first ever playoff victory, over the defending super bowl champion rams. After that season everyone thought Brooks was going to be a perennial pro-bowler. Ummm, naw.

My point is, you can't really gauge young quarterbacks with any certainty off of 6-7 games. Simmer down.

12/25/2012 2:54:35 PM

^^ analogies are pretty bad.

Luck gets credit because he is leading the worst team last year to playoffs this year while losing their head coach.

Stats and performance matter little because people love the luck/colts story and will vote accordingly.

All 3 are playing really well, can't go wrong with any. And as far as stats go the amount Luck is asked to throw skews things(both good and bad) but I'd love to see Luck's 4th quarter stats.

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 2:58 PM. Reason : .]

12/25/2012 2:58:14 PM

I'm not saying anything about their career potential.

Just saying luck isn't any good yet and RG3 and RW already are. That should be obvious to anyone with a pulse.

RW has played flawlessly for the past several weeks. Seriously this is the dumbest discussion ever, the RW hate is far too strong around here

12/25/2012 3:00:02 PM

No one is saying Wilson is better than Griffin. We are saying he's better than Luck. I'd give the nod to Griffin.

It's quite arguable whether or not the colts had the worst team since they tanked on purpose. They certainly had the easiest schedule in the NFL this year, though. That's a fact.

12/25/2012 3:01:50 PM

Griffin lost the ROY when he went down and Kirk Cousins won 2 games for him.

He's only 15 games into his career and has already failed to finish 3 of them. I don't care about the rest of your stats. If your QB can't stay on the field your team is fucked.

12/25/2012 3:05:57 PM

^^^ I agree, he has played amazingly the last few weeks. And I've enjoyed watching it, no doubt. And in a head to head matchup, I'd take the Seahawks over the Redskins or Colts all day.

My choice for ROY would be RGIII though - been playing at a consistently high level all season, #2 in passer rating, and is leading his team to the playoffs despite all the injuries that depleted their defense early in the season.

I think we can all agree that regardless of who wins ROY this has been an unprecedented year for rookie QBs. And it's been run to watch. I mean, most years Alfred Morris would be a shoo-in for ROY, and he's not even really in the conversation.

^ that's why it's good they got Kirk Cousins then! Part of the master plan!


[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:09 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:11 PM. Reason : .]

12/25/2012 3:08:10 PM

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/85192/wilson-luck-vs-same-eight-opponents

Wilson vs Luck vs common opponents through the Bills game. The passing stats difference is huge.

Completion %, yards per attempt, TDs, Ints

So against the same opponents, Wilson did much better in passing categories. If Wilson had the easiest fucking schedule in the NFL, his stats would be even more dominant. You would absolutely pick wilson over Luck for your team.

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:11 PM. Reason : .]

12/25/2012 3:11:22 PM

No, no I wouldn't pick Russell over luck. But let's revisit this in 2 years.

12/25/2012 3:13:57 PM

I like how it says Wilson is 6-2 in those games with 17 passing TDs and 1 interception, when anybody who actually watched the Packers game knows he's 5-3 with 16 TDs and 2 picks

12/25/2012 3:16:10 PM

Quote :

"After that season everyone thought Brooks was going to be a perennial pro-bowler. Ummm, naw."

Advanced metrics still had Brooks rated as a bottom half of the league QB in 2000 though (along with every other season of Brook's career except for 2003)

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:27 PM. Reason : unless you're comparing Brooks to Luck]

12/25/2012 3:26:59 PM

^ Two things: one, he was basically a rookie and people projected a learning curve. And two, no one was using advanced metrics for scouting QBs 12 years ago. But sure, in hindsight I'm sure you're right. Good work.

12/25/2012 3:31:24 PM

advanced metrics still have a long way to go in football and conventional stats lie a TON too

then again, i'm sure russ went from a ~60% passer to a 70%+ passer in one college offseason

12/25/2012 3:36:58 PM

I mean, I understand that these metrics are trying to show a true reflection of how good someone's past performance was, but they aren't a great way at projecting the future. Anyhow. So while they may show that griffin and Wilson have had better rookie years than luck, they have to be taken with a grain of salt when predicting their future success.

But to move on, I'm really hoping for a Washington-Seattle first round playoff game. That would be fun to watch.

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 3:46 PM. Reason : .]

12/25/2012 3:45:54 PM

Rookie of the year has nothing to do with career potential.

Luck has a great career ahead of him in all likelihood. But he shouldn't even be in the ROY conversation because he wasn't good this year and these other two guys were.

12/25/2012 3:49:41 PM

The initial statements were

Quote :

"Wilson and RG3 are both top ten QBs this year obviously."

Quote :

"for what it's worth, i agree with rg3 & wilson being top 10 qbs this season"

Others are the ones trying to bring future success into the conversation. Neither I nor face have made any such statements regarding future success for any of the 3 rookie QBs

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 4:01 PM. Reason : i feel dirty coming to the defense of face]

12/25/2012 4:00:45 PM

^^

12/25/2012 4:12:16 PM

lol at Luck "not being good this year"

its like people make statements about him without ever watching him play

12/25/2012 4:15:54 PM

He wasn't. Good for a rookie maybe, but not good compared to the starting QB in the NFL

12/25/2012 4:20:17 PM

i havent watched every colts game this year but when i have i dont look at them and think "man, this qb sucks"

conversely, i do see say that watching the bengals eventhough dalton wins and his stats look ok

12/25/2012 4:42:00 PM

Dalton is a good comparison with Luck. They had very similar seasons.

12/25/2012 5:02:42 PM

This is a comparison of the QBs passing stats, only (add in the run stats, and Wilson and RG3 look even better). It's what the QB's actual Yds/Att was in the game versus what that passing defense normally allows (expected).

http://i49.tinypic.com/sngigp.png


This normalizes for differences in number of attempts and strength of opposing passing defense (We do see that Wilson has faced the tougher pass defenses).

We see that Wilson and Griffin are throwing for more than what opposing defenses normally allow, and we can clearly see how much Wilson has improved in the second half -- Wilson is the hottest QB right now.


For further reference:

BRADY
ten	7.610000	7.500000	101.466667
ari	6.870000	6.800000	101.029412
bal	8.170000	7.100000	115.070423
buf	9.440000	6.900000	136.811594
den	7.190000	6.500000	110.615385
sea	6.810000	6.200000	109.838710
nyj	6.170000	6.400000	96.406250
stl	8.690000	7.000000	124.142857
buf	6.240000	6.900000	90.434783
ind	9.460000	7.400000	127.837838
nyj	11.960000	6.400000	186.875000
mia	5.950000	7.000000	85.000000
hou	8.460000	6.700000	126.268657
sf	6.820000	6.100000	111.803279
jac	6.510000	7.300000	89.178082
AVG	7.756667	6.813333	114.185262

RIVERS
oak	7.000000	7.500000	93.333333
ten	8.880000	7.500000	118.400000
atl	4.550000	7.400000	61.486486
kc	9.090000	7.800000	116.538462
no	8.430000	8.100000	104.074074
den	5.880000	6.500000	90.461538
cle	4.530000	7.000000	64.714286
kc	11.000000	7.800000	141.025641
tb	9.110000	8.100000	112.469136
den	6.450000	6.500000	99.230769
bal	6.330000	7.100000	89.154930
cin	5.830000	6.800000	85.735294
pit	4.880000	6.000000	81.333333
car	5.260000	6.800000	77.352941
nyj	7.500000	6.400000	117.187500
AVG	6.981333	7.153333	96.833182

WEEDEN
phi	3.370000	7.400000	45.540541
cin	8.700000	6.800000	127.941176
buf	5.510000	6.900000	79.855072
bal	6.150000	7.100000	86.619718
nyg	8.310000	8.200000	101.341463
cin	7.970000	6.800000	117.205882
ind	6.440000	7.400000	87.027027
sd	4.780000	7.000000	68.285714
bal	4.760000	7.100000	67.042254
dal	6.000000	7.700000	77.922078
pit	6.080000	6.000000	101.333333
oak	10.110000	7.500000	134.800000
kc	7.230000	7.800000	92.692308
was	6.970000	7.500000	92.933333
den	5.470000	6.500000	84.153846
AVG	6.523333	7.180000	90.979583

DALTON
bal	5.970000	7.100000	84.084507
cle	10.260000	7.000000	146.571429
was	12.150000	7.500000	162.000000
jac	7.870000	7.300000	107.808219
mia	5.440000	7.000000	77.714286
cle	8.280000	7.000000	118.285714
pit	3.750000	6.000000	62.500000
den	7.120000	6.500000	109.538462
nyg	6.630000	8.200000	80.853659
kc	7.930000	7.800000	101.666667
oak	7.000000	7.500000	93.333333
sd	5.550000	7.000000	79.285714
dal	6.240000	7.700000	81.038961
phi	4.700000	7.400000	63.513514
pit	6.780000	6.000000	113.000000
AVG	7.044667	7.133333	98.746298

12/25/2012 9:44:59 PM

Pretty much sums it up and doesn't even address lucks princess turnover status

12/25/2012 9:56:03 PM

Quote :

"Add dalton -- dunno if his OL is bad"

No, I'd say Cincy's OL is top 10


Also, your post didn't take into account the turnover factor either, which would only slant further towards RG3 & Wilson

12/25/2012 10:06:22 PM

luck's advanced rushing stats actually lead the league early in the season because he converted a ton of 3rd downs and short yardage TDs. not sure if thats still the case

12/25/2012 10:11:14 PM

This stats discussion is boring, can we get back to the RW/TOB argument please?

12/25/2012 10:13:02 PM

Quote :

"add in the run stats, and Wilson and RG3 look even better"

Luck has more rushing TDs then Wilson, who didn't have a single one until 2 weeks ago

where is face with some football Wins Produced numbers? I guarantee you Luck has produced more wins than either RG3 or Wilson, and that's face's holy bible when it comes to bball, so I'm not sure why he's so adamant to ignore it in football, unless his hatred of TOB and what-if scenario's about RW's senior season are clouding his judgment

Quote :

"rallydurham Suspended 11317 Posts user info edit post there you go with stats again... if you watched the game, he flat out dominated us..."

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 10:23 PM. Reason : .]

12/25/2012 10:18:24 PM

Actually luck is way behind RW and RG3 in DYAR. It's not even close.

Luck sucks compared to those two guys.

12/25/2012 10:24:43 PM

doesn't DYAR use ESPN's QBR stat?

12/25/2012 10:29:55 PM

YAR, DYAR, & DVOA all predate QBR

[Edited on December 25, 2012 at 10:42 PM. Reason : by years]

12/25/2012 10:41:56 PM

Vick apparently had a DYAR of -260 the year face declared him a Golden God

good for 43rd overall among NFL quarterbacks that season

12/25/2012 10:58:37 PM

Quote :

"As a saints fan, I remember a 2nd-year Aaron Brooks playing very well when he came in for an injured Jeff Blake during the 2000 season. In 5 starts he threw for 1500 yards and 9 tds, and also rushed for 170 yards and another 2 tds. He then led the saints to their first ever playoff victory, over the defending super bowl champion rams. After that season everyone thought Brooks was going to be a perennial pro-bowler. Ummm, naw. My point is, you can't really gauge young quarterbacks with any certainty off of 6-7 games. Simmer down. "

So then what are you using to predict that Luck will have the best career? hype?

12/26/2012 12:05:26 AM