I'm a bit interested in this advertising rush in Pennsylvania.

A week ago, it would have made no sense whatsoever and been a completely pointless venture.

This week, however, there are suddenly 9 counties in Eastern PA recovering from a superstorm, all majority-Democratic, and over a million folks in them without power, who wont be doing much better by Tuesday. I've said some pretty mean things about Romney, but I'm not quite ready to suggest he's actively trying to milk Sandy for some EV's in PA. Still, Pittsburgh can't hold the state blue on its own, we need Philly too, and most of Philly is still going to be busy sqeegeeing their basement on Tuesday...


[Edited on November 1, 2012 at 3:06 PM. Reason : .]

11/1/2012 3:05:17 PM

^Philly is fine man.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/01/obama-dodges-a-sandy-bullet-in-philadelphia/

11/1/2012 3:08:09 PM

The Drudge Report kills me. It's worse then Fox now. The polls it's publishing are all pro-Romney

Iowa: R 49% O 48%
Ohio: R 49% O 46%
Wisconsin: R 49% O 49%
Colorado: R 50% O 47%
Rasmussen: R 49% O 47%

538 is predicting an Obama win in every one of those states

11/1/2012 3:08:52 PM

Mayor Bloomberg endorsed the president today.

Now I have to rethink my entire voting thought processes

11/1/2012 3:16:29 PM

11/1/2012 3:25:00 PM

Quote :

"http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/01/obama-dodges-a-sandy-bullet-in-philadelphia/"

Phew well that's pretty optimistic, good to know. Those counties (and Philly) also got an extension for early voting http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/11/01/absentee-ballot-deadline-extended-for-pa-counties-impacted-by-sandy/

11/1/2012 3:36:36 PM

11/1/2012 3:50:59 PM

What a boring country it would be without all those things.

11/1/2012 4:55:14 PM

11/1/2012 5:03:56 PM

The latest poll listed up on Real Clear Politics is a CBS poll that has Obama up by 2 in Virginia. They don't list the PPP poll released yesterday yet, but it also has Obama up by 3. And Ipsos/Reuters put out a poll yesterday with Obama up 2 in Virginia.

http://www.wtop.com/41/3102610/Obama-to-appear-with-Bill-Clinton-and-Dave-Matthews-in-Va-

Quote :

"Obama to appear with Bill Clinton and Dave Matthews in Va. WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama will speak at a grassroots event with former President Bill Clinton and a performance by singer Dave Matthews in Bristow, Va. Saturday. The event at Jiffy Lube Live at 7 p.m. is free and open to the public, but tickets are required. Tickets can be reserved online and may be picked up at a campaign office starting at 3 p.m. Thursday."

11/1/2012 5:55:49 PM

I really want the news channels to use that picture every time they call a state for Obama.

11/1/2012 6:10:04 PM

He must be feeling really comfortable in Va if he's willing to appear in public with Dave Matthews.

11/1/2012 6:28:33 PM

The right-wing media's going nuts over gas shortages on the East Coast. Trying to conjure up memories of 1980, perhaps?

11/1/2012 7:28:59 PM

they are going nuts over everything right now.

11/1/2012 7:42:01 PM

Yeah it kinda feels like they're building up to a fever pitch, it's almost like they're a bit nervous about something...

11/1/2012 8:01:19 PM

It's interesting that Obama's win probability is spiking to the 47%-comment levels, but his popular vote margin is no where near where it peaked.

11/1/2012 8:47:16 PM

I assumed that was just a matter of time-to-election. As we get closer without a swing towards Romney in the polls then the likelihood of such a swing decreases.

But I don't actually know if any of the stat guys' models account for time-to-election, so I may just be way off base.

11/2/2012 2:00:20 AM

It kind of makes sense. As election day draws ever closer, the writing on the wall becomes even more clear. It would take a catastrophic event to flip the election with so little time left.

11/2/2012 2:03:14 AM

A better than expect jobs report out this morning with unemployment still under 8%, 171,000 new jobs, and more people looking for jobs compared to past reports. Good news all around.

11/2/2012 8:35:41 AM

Overlooked but the "weak" August report was revised upward to 192k as well..

Obama is closing out his campaign VERY strongly.

11/2/2012 9:03:01 AM

Quote :

"A better than expect jobs report out this morning with unemployment still under 8%, 171,000 new jobs, and more people looking for jobs compared to past reports. Good news all around."

Let me unspin this for you...Unemployment went up- from 7.8 to 7.9 (slightly higher than when Obama took office). This is terrible news for Obama. It was his last chance of showing improvement. This isn't even the "real" unemployment rate. The labor force participation rate is at a 30 year low, due to all the people who have given up on finding work. They have to be seeking in order to be counted in the rate. If we simply used the same labor force participation rate as when Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be almost exactly 11%. Sorry.

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2012/jul/17/paul-ryan/paul-ryan-says-unemployment-would-be-11-percent-sa/

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 9:34 AM. Reason : /]

11/2/2012 9:32:09 AM

Quote :

"If we simply used the same labor force participation rate as when Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be almost exactly 11%"

which is lower than the real rate when he started

11/2/2012 9:36:34 AM

^^http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Is not a secret. U-6 is actually 14.6 right now. You don't have to "unspin" shit.

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 9:37 AM. Reason : .]

11/2/2012 9:37:32 AM

^^^ you really do live in a different world the the rest of us. I actually am envious. I wish I had the creativity to make up an alternate reality to the real world.

Again, for the hundredth time, these numbers have been calculated the same exact way since Reagan. It's apples to apples even before you "unskew" them to fit your narrative.

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 9:39 AM. Reason : X]

11/2/2012 9:38:16 AM

but it works so much better for their narrative if you compare "skewed" lower numbers at the beginning to the "unskewed" higher numbers at the end

11/2/2012 9:42:47 AM

Quote :

"^^^ you really do live in a different world the the rest of us. I actually am envious. I wish I had the creativity to make up an alternate reality to the real world. Again, for the hundredth time, these numbers have been calculated the same exact way since Reagan. It's apples to apples even before you "unskew" them to fit your narrative. "

Yes, you Democrats live on another planet, that's obvious.

Of course the numbers have been calculated the same exact way since Reagan. DURRRRR. All I'm saying is that when the labor force participation rate drops, it makes the numbers look better than what the real situation is. With the participation rate at a 30 year low, and unemployment STILL at ~8%, that's an AWFUL situation. Especially considering it was 7.8% when Obama took office FOUR YEARS AGO. And you're proud of this? You are the one who needs a reality check.

Perhaps you will come back to Earth next week and realize what a sheep you are for buying into all the skewed/biased polls when Romney wins decisively.

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 9:53 AM. Reason : /]

11/2/2012 9:52:05 AM

Romney may very well win. But that doesn't make you right and me wrong. If you go back and read I very rarely to never make definitive statements or even really disclose my specific ideology (hint: I'm not far left or right).

I simply comment on the state of the race.

11/2/2012 9:55:56 AM

I was going to vote for Gary Johnson, but prep-e is making me conflicted. After the sheer hubris of that post, I really want him to eat crow on Tuesday. Not that my vote really matters, but still.

Quote :

"Especially considering it was 7.8% when Obama took office FOUR YEARS AGO. And you're proud of this? You are the one who needs a reality check."

I don't speak for NyM410, but I am actually impressed with the economy not being completely destroyed (yet, I know, I don't need to hear it d#s or geniusboy) and standing in bread lines and shit. Especially given the state it was in 4 years ago and the sheer level of idiocy from Congress.

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 10:03 AM. Reason : .]

11/2/2012 9:59:07 AM

Don't pretend like you're the type of person who would vote for Gary Johnson if you would vote for someone else just to make some retard "eat crow."

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 10:02 AM. Reason : -]

11/2/2012 10:02:03 AM

Well, since you're psychic, what do I want for lunch today? I'm having a hard time deciding.

11/2/2012 10:04:14 AM

I don't know, but please tell me after you decide. I want to make fun of your choice so you'll get something else.

I'm also happy to know the value of your vote.

Somewhere between angering an anonymous dumbass and lunch.

11/2/2012 10:12:15 AM

Ahaha, remember how, over the past few years, every time the unemployment rate dropped the entire right wing yelled ITS A TRICK ITS ONLY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THE WORKFORCE ?

Cue crazy outrage that the unemployment ticked up 0.1%, with not even a whisper of the 500,000+ who re-entered the workforce.

11/2/2012 10:21:46 AM

^^You're saying it's worth more than that? Maybe if we were in Ohio or Nevada I'd agree.

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 10:22 AM. Reason : .]

11/2/2012 10:21:51 AM

Quote :

"I was going to vote for Gary Johnson, but prep-e is making me conflicted. After the sheer hubris of that post, I really want him to eat crow on Tuesday. Not that my vote really matters, but still. "

Please feel free. Romney will win big in NC either way

11/2/2012 10:22:01 AM

Of course, Fox News does not disappoint

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/02/unemployment-rate-rises-to-7-percent-economy-add-171000-jobs/

11/2/2012 10:22:29 AM

Quote :

" Ahaha, remember how, over the past few years, every time the unemployment rate dropped the entire right wing yelled ITS A TRICK ITS ONLY BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THE WORKFORCE ? Cue crazy outrage that the unemployment ticked up 0.1%, with not even a whisper of the 500,000+ who re-entered the workforce."

who is outraged? I didn't think it was a big deal for either side. I was just pointing out that some of these idiots were actually trying to spin it into "good news" for Obama.

11/2/2012 10:25:24 AM

OBAMA PHONE

11/2/2012 10:25:35 AM

Quote :

"who is outraged? I didn't think it was a big deal for either side. I was just pointing out that some of these idiots were actually trying to spin it into "good news" for Obama."

It is good news, it's not stellar or amazing, but you'd have to spin it pretty hard to even portray it as a mixed report.

-Job gains high enough to outpace population growth

-Gains higher than economists predicted

-Upward revisions of August and September totaling more than 80,000 jobs

-This is all in spite of government employment dropping by 13,000, so the net gain is solely the credit of private payroll

-The only "bad" news is that the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% despite half a million people rejoining the workforce, which doesn't carry much weight as something to complain about given my other post.


[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 AM. Reason : .]

11/2/2012 10:27:33 AM

That's not what a real recovery looks like. 23 million people are unemployed or underemployed. That's a drop in the bucket.

11/2/2012 10:42:03 AM

How would you know what a "real" recovery is supposed to look like from a collapse this big? Last time it took a massive socialist effort and a second World War working to pull the economy back together.

Republicans: Democrats aren't fixing out fuckups quick enough so put us back in charge so we can do it all again!!!

11/2/2012 10:44:07 AM

prep-e, if you're going to quote the article I just posted at least post it in quote form:

Quote :

"Today's increase in the unemployment rate is a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill," Romney said in a statement. "The jobless rate is higher than it was when President Obama took office, and there are still 23 million Americans struggling for work. ... When I'm president, I'm going to make real changes that lead to a real recovery, so that the next four years are better than the last."

So are you actually a Romney surrogate or is it just coincidence that you echo his slogans and spin?

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 10:47 AM. Reason : .]

11/2/2012 10:45:46 AM

Just a quick reminder how deep the "bucket" is that prep-e's talking about.

11/2/2012 10:49:08 AM

Quote :

"prep-e, if you're going to quote the article I just posted at least post it in quote form: Quote : "Today's increase in the unemployment rate is a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill," Romney said in a statement. "The jobless rate is higher than it was when President Obama took office, and there are still 23 million Americans struggling for work. ... When I'm president, I'm going to make real changes that lead to a real recovery, so that the next four years are better than the last." So are you actually a Romney surrogate or is it just coincidence that you echo his slogans and spin?"

I didn't even click on your article, bud. Nice try though. Anyone even slightly following this election knows that number.

11/2/2012 10:57:57 AM

Yes, it's the number Romney used to claim was the number of unemployed until the fact-checkers got to him.

11/2/2012 11:01:19 AM

Wait til the fact checkers get a hold of Obama on Benghazi.

11/2/2012 11:05:33 AM

Gotta love that wingnut schizophrenia.

11/2/2012 11:07:10 AM

that's the Romney supporters go-to admission of defeat when their argument has been destroyed.

but but.... Benghazi? Yeah, Benghazi! Seals left behind!

11/2/2012 11:08:53 AM

I could point out to you how the Fox/Republican conspiratorial narrative on Benghazi is already unraveling, just like the Fast and Furious one did, but you'd just respond by shifting gears again, maybe to...the birth certificate? Nah, too passe...the "57 states" gaffe? Even that one's a bit old...maybe the global warming hoax.

11/2/2012 11:09:08 AM

Quote :

"that's the Romney supporters go-to admission of defeat when their argument has been destroyed. but but.... Benghazi? Yeah, Benghazi! Seals left behind! "

wtf are you talking about, retard? what am I admitting "defeat" over?

and gg making light of one of the biggest scandals in our country's history where 4 innocent lives were lost due to this administration's incompetence

11/2/2012 11:12:35 AM

Quote :

"Daniel Gross ?@grossdm In October, more people had payroll jobs than at any time since December 2008."

There is that, and also Obama is now a net job creator, even before the +300K revision BLS is going to put in the February jobs report.

Quote :

"and gg making light of one of the biggest scandals in our country's history where 4 innocent lives were lost due to this administration's incompetence"

That's fine. As long as you're willing to say every single American who died in Iraq was due to that administration's "incompetence".

[Edited on November 2, 2012 at 11:14 AM. Reason : :]

11/2/2012 11:12:42 AM