happy july 4th y'all.

just thinking about this post from november...

Quote :

"80% of Americans do not want to see a Trump-Biden rematch, and increasingly the polls are showing that Biden is easily behind Trump, and the Democrats are just sleepwalking into an inevitable defeat by not having a real primary and facing Biden's weaknesses head-on."

7/4/2024 2:15:48 PM

I will vote for and support whoever the candidate is running against trump. Is Biden the best choice, maybe? But I literally just can not fathom why/how trump is polling so well.

34x convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, all fucking over Epstein call logs, testimony that he was watching/making underage girls have sex, self proclaimed credit for turning over Roe, will absolutely support Israel 1000% in completely obliterating Gaza and its population, offers absolutely nothing policy wise as to how he will accomplish anything that will help people, just says “only I can fix it” when he has a proven track record of not being able to fix anything or accomplish any campaign promises- with the majorities in the senate and congress! One of his only stated policies is that he will impose tariffs, that we will have to fucking pay for! Says he’s going with the project 2025 playbook which will literally turn us into a Christian fascist state, not to mention reverse policy and regulation that will poison our water and environment even worse than it already is and doom is to an even faster environmental apocalypse, and has a corrupt Supreme Court in the bag that will allow him to do literally whatever he wants.

But oh no, Joe had a bad debate performance

It just doesn’t add up. Especially after all the special elections since Roe that republicans got obliterated in.

I’m not saying I don’t think trump will win, I think there’s a good chance he will, and am absolutely terrified of it. I think it will literally be the end of American democracy. But I just don’t understand how many people are behind him. It saddens me that America may be ruined because of a bad debate performance (where he looked fine in videos immediately after and the next day), and one of the only big factors I can point to in it is the media’s complacency in running with these perceptions

7/4/2024 3:30:43 PM

Quote :

"It just doesn’t add up. Especially after all the special elections since Roe that republicans got obliterated in. "

ding ding ding

Quote :

" It saddens me that America may be ruined because of a bad debate performance (where he looked fine in videos immediately after and the next day), and one of the only big factors I can point to in it is the media’s complacency in running with these perceptions"

double ding ding ding

[Edited on July 4, 2024 at 4:35 PM. Reason : .]

7/4/2024 4:34:21 PM

I'd like to have another choice, but in a binary choice, the decision is completely clear. I voted for Haley in the Republican Primary just to attempt to slow down the Trump train. Got steamrolled, but I tried.

7/4/2024 4:41:44 PM

^^so I’ve been drinking pretty much all day (which directly led to my long post above), so can you help me clarify what you mean by the dings?


Are you saying we are just being in gaslit by the media and have nothing to worry about, trump will be defeated?

Or just acknowledging that the media is the problem and they are about to usher in the downfall of democracy?

Or something else?

7/4/2024 4:51:50 PM

the latter

I can’t get over the absurdity over putting so much weight onto one debate and those in the media who couldn’t wait for a moment to pile on and go all-in on the Dems in Disarray narrative

7/4/2024 6:04:07 PM

Yeah that’s unfortunately what I thought you meant, they are going to enjoy grasping for temporary ratings/profits right up until they literally bring about the end of American democracy and then very possibly hang in some gallows.

Shit is so fucked.

7/4/2024 6:20:52 PM

he had one goal for the debate - show the country that his age wasn't a problem. it was his first opportunity to highlight the Biden vs Trump choice, he knew this was coming for months and he failed miserably. I was optimistic after the SOTU, but it's clear he is not at the top of his game. I expect MY President to be at the top of their game, or at the least not go into the game with known severe handicaps.

When McConnell froze up at a press conference, none of you were like "oh it's just one press conference." get your heads out of the god damn sand and acknowledge what normal people have known and seen for years - that Biden is far too old, will not have what it takes to do the hardest job in the world for another 4 years, and the responsible thing for him and the party to do is to have an oval office address where he

- acknowledges that his age, or at the least the perception of his age is too big a concern for voters
- says it's too important to beat Trump and that even though he believes he can still do the job, he will step down and make way for somebody new. the humility will give him some public approval points. it's the noble thing to do. for his party, his country and the 95% of non-Americans across the planet who would not be well served by another Trump administration.
- apologize for not making this decision BEFORE the primary process
- announce a mini primary of sorts before the convention. weekly nationally televised debates. will bring a swell of interest and enthusiasm and take out all the oxygen from the trump campaign media focus.
- kamala declines to participate in the primary. says it's for the good of the party and she wants Dem voters to feel confident that they are getting a nominee of THEIR choosing, and avoid accusations of the Dems being sneaky to bypass a primary or any "DEI" candidate accusations

that said, he's got an interview with ABC tomorrow night. we'll see how he does, but even if he does well, I have my doubts that it's going to wipe away the debate.

[Edited on July 4, 2024 at 8:02 PM. Reason : i can't get over the absurdity of defending this guy. nothing against him personally, but TOO OLD]

7/4/2024 8:00:17 PM

I like it! But the egos of the multiple people involved seem incapable of doing things for the greater good.

7/4/2024 8:20:18 PM

^^did you see the footage of him directly after the debate, or the next day in NC? Even shortly after he seemed completely different (not that that in itself isn’t slightly concerning)

It also seemed pretty clear to me that he was a little under the weather in the debate, and may have been in some cold medicine, he definitely seemed to come alive more about halfway through.

I’ve also heard some commentary on trump using the Gish Gallop debate technique, which is basically an overwhelming barrage of lies (no doubt that he did that) but it supposedly can leave the opponent a little stunned with just how to respond to such an overwhelming amount of lies, what to address first and what not, and supposedly is particularly effective against people with a stutter (that last part i don’t have hard data to back up, just something I read and it kind of makes sense)

Is Biden old, absofuckinglutely. Does he have dementia? I don’t really think so. I think he’s been incredibly effective, and had a terrible debate. I think he would be just as effective in a second term. I do worry that switching at this point in the game could cause more damage than good, but if the more savvy political minds think it’s the right choice, im all for it.

It just boggles my mind how the media is just not harping constantly on all the shit I brought up in my post above about trump, i don’t think it’s hyperbole at all to say him winning would be the end of American democracy, and it’s not being treated as such, which is fucking insane

[Edited on July 4, 2024 at 8:29 PM. Reason : $$$]

7/4/2024 8:29:19 PM

Quote :

"overwhelming barrage of lies"

I watched the debate mainly for content, and that was my main takeaway. Opinions of candidates were already well-formed.

7/4/2024 8:48:44 PM

^^
Doesn’t matter what the reality is tbh. Are people’s perceptions going to change? Can it change? How?

Biden is collapsing in the polls right now. He might lose Minnesota. Trumps felonies are already priced in— maybe it costs him half a point when they sentence him??

This is pretty much a disaster right now. It’s not really fair to Biden, it makes no sense considering trumps other actions, it’s going to take absolute genius strategizing for democrats to solve this.

Doing the right thing and doing the politically advisable thing aren’t the same thing. The politically advisable thing is to keep Biden— the appearance of uncertainty can be worse than Biden being old. The right thing is for Biden never to have run again as he implied back in 2020. The right thing now is to find and run a candidate that can beat trump— which might still be Biden in the right circumstances.

Anyway I think it’s impossible to say which strategy is the best. This is just a shitshow. Voters are really pathetic tbh that trump even has a chance.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

7/4/2024 9:39:58 PM

Quote :

"which is basically an overwhelming barrage of lies (no doubt that he did that) but it supposedly can leave the opponent a little stunned with just how to respond to such an overwhelming amount of lies, what to address first and what not,"

Yeah, he was extra full of shit that night, even by Trump standards.

I would have been looking at him puzzled and mouth-agape, too. I don't know what you say to statements like Trump was making other than "Uhh, I'll make a counterpoint to A & B...C, D, E, F, G, and H are all complete falsehoods and don't rate a response."

7/5/2024 12:27:15 AM

Quote :

"get your heads out of the god damn sand and acknowledge what normal people have known and seen for years - that Biden is far too old"

I think a lot of us are very clear on this point. I didn't want Biden to be the nominee in 2020 for this very reason. Having won, I think he should have stopped after one term. We agree on this. But "Is he too old?" isn't the question. The question is whether staying the course has a better chance to defeat Trump. I don't care if Biden is a drooling imbecile the day after election day, as long as he wins. The cabinet can 25th his ass out of there and Kamala can run the show.

Now, as to your plan for what Biden ought to do - I can more or less get behind your first three points. If he's going to bow out, that's the only way to do it. But then you go off the rails. A "mini primary" is not feasible. There's a month and a half before the convention, state election laws exist, there's just not the machinery or legal pathway to make that happen.

As for Kamala stepping back...why on Earth would she? She'd be the presumptive frontrunner and she knows she polls about as well or better than Joe against Trump. Even if she were a selfless saint of a woman, would her dropping out actually make things better? If she stays in, that by itself puts a stop to a lot of the potential messiness of an open convention.

Quote :

"Dem voters to feel confident that they are getting a nominee of THEIR choosing"

Every Democratic primary voter for Biden cast their ballot certain in the knowledge that Harris would be the VP and had a decent chance of being elevated to POTUS.

Quote :

" I don't know what you say to statements like Trump was making other than "Uhh, I'll make a counterpoint to A & B...C, D, E, F, G, and H are all complete falsehoods and don't rate a response."

"Donald Trump just told too many lies for me to respond to during my allotted time. So let's talk about the things that he says he wants to do and why those will be a disaster for you."

7/5/2024 12:34:26 PM

Quote :

"did you see the footage of him directly after the debate, or the next day in NC? Even shortly after he seemed completely different (not that that in itself isn’t slightly concerning)"

does not matter at all. if he had been out making public appearances constantly over the last several months maybe people would be willing to chalk it up to a bad debate, but he hasn't. and the public perception of that public absence has been that his handlers are keeping him out of the public eye to cover up his age-related issues. so coming out into public for the first time in months and his performance seemingly confirming the age-related issues everybody thinks is the "hidden" truth, well good luck changing that perception now.

again, when McConnell and Feinstein were showing their age-related issues out in public, everybody said it was clear evidence that they were too old to be doing these jobs now. the job of representing the United States is too important to risk somebody having a senior moment in a moment where we need them to be at their best.

Quote :

" I think he would be just as effective in a second term."

for another four years? he's already the oldest president in history. he's clearly got some age-related issues, however severe you may or may not want to characterize those issues, it doesn't matter. it's not going to get better. he's going to continue to decline. the only question is how rapidly. so why on earth would we take that risk? if the bare minimum goal is to keep trump and the gop out of office, why on earth not let a younger candidate be the nominee. if biden died today, absolutely nobody would think "dear god no, he was our only chance to beat trump!" policy-wise, any other Democrat is going to have nearly the same approach/priorities as Biden. so what's it matter who is at the top of the ticket besides public perception of the candidate as a trustworthy and capable leader. biden has too much baggage at this point to be the most effective representative of the Democratic party platform. let somebody else be that voice.

Quote :

"It just boggles my mind how the media is just not harping constantly on all the shit I brought up in my post above about trump"

because it doesn't move the needle on public perception of him. if anything, the trump supporters see the media bias against him as a reason to support him even more.

Quote :

"Doing the right thing and doing the politically advisable thing aren’t the same thing."

correct. and this is a big part of why the Democrats are so loathed by most of the country that we can't even beat a man like Trump. should be the easiest slam dunk victory, but Dems just constantly shoot themselves in the foot by playing politics instead of just doing the right thing. that's supposed to be their brand right? we're good people, we fight for human rights and justice and democracy, etc etc. but half the time when you get an opportunity to do the "right thing" and they end up just playing politics instead. so not only are they showing themselves to be just as politically-corrupted as republicans, they're hypocrites because they claim to be the saints from up high on Mount Rushmore to save the country and the world from the Deplorables.

jeff jackson touched on an example of this in his most recent campaign update fwiw
https://jeffjacksonnc.substack.com/i/145947416/an-experiment-scream-vs-substance

Quote :

"But "Is he too old?" isn't the question. The question is whether staying the course has a better chance to defeat Trump. I don't care if Biden is a drooling imbecile the day after election day, as long as he wins. The cabinet can 25th his ass out of there and Kamala can run the show."

this is a perfect example of "doing the right thing vs doing the politically advisable thing"

americans are sick of politicians doing the "politically advisable thing" we need American leaders to show some courage. be a real LEADER. people truly do want to follow and support good leaders. but when the "leaders" show themselves to be easily swayed by whatever is politically expedient in a given moment, then people realize what's the point of following them, they're just a phony. have some principles. speak on them. act on them. be consistent. that's how you gain support. by being bold and speaking the truth. especially if it's an uncomfortable truth. people respect truth-tellers. trump can tell 1000 lies but it's because of the handful of "uncomfortable truths" that he does speak, he gets tons of public support, because voters see all the other politicians as spineless corrupt ideologues who are more loyal to their party and driven by their own ego than interested in serving the public good. biden should act boldly and quit trying to triangulate so much.

Quote :

"As for Kamala stepping back...why on Earth would she? She'd be the presumptive frontrunner and she knows she polls about as well or better than Joe against Trump. Even if she were a selfless saint of a woman, would her dropping out actually make things better? If she stays in, that by itself puts a stop to a lot of the potential messiness of an open convention."

she would because she's an honorable Democrat who puts country > party > self. she, like Joe, will agree that the number one goal is to put forth a candidate who is best able to beat Trump, and she recognizes that she is also not it. She doesn't need to defend her record, and neither do we. the past is in the past, no use nitpicking over any of it, it's just going to be fodder for attacks from the gop. it doesn't matter. give us a new candidate who doesn't have a presidential record to complain about. You can say that it's unfair to Kamala, that she's "next in line", but what's more important, following the arbitrary traditions of your party, or getting the job done and defeating Trump. she, like joe, will get a boost to her credibility by being so selfless. both of them can leverage that to support whoever the new candidate is.

as for who would be better than kamala? I honestly don't know. Maybe the Dems don't have any great options that have clear advantages over Kamala. Maybe Kamala (with her 55% disapproval rate) still is the best option. I don't know. Again, this speaks more to the patheticness of the Democrats to not have a strong bench. I do think Cooper would probably do well, but I don't have any strong opinions. I also agree there are some complications with the state laws and what to do with the fundraising money accumulated by the biden/harris campaign. but there's surely a way to solve these issues. Dems just need to get creative and quit boxing themselves in. any way you cut it, the path forward is fraught. but they did this to themselves. hopefully the consequences of their stupidity won't result in another Trump victory

[Edited on July 5, 2024 at 1:13 PM. Reason : le sigh]

7/5/2024 12:41:01 PM

Quote :

"she would because she's an honorable Democrat who puts country > party > self."

Quote :

"Maybe Kamala (with her 55% disapproval rate) still is the best option."

In the absence of someone who would clearly do better than Harris, her staying in is what is best for party and country. If you had an obvious alternative, I'd be more inclined to indulge in the fantasy of a politician with massive advantages stepping aside out of pure altruism.

Quote :

"it doesn't matter. give us a new candidate who doesn't have a presidential record to complain about."

A "presidential record" isn't a liability. For one thing, it means they've been vetted. People from both parties did deep dives into Harris' past and apparently didn't find anything too damning. That's a mark in her favor right out of the gate. Plus, the Biden record is, on balance, pretty fucking good.

Quote :

"but there's surely a way to solve these issues."

Not in six weeks there isn't. Even if Biden and Harris were the selfless angels you wish they were, the logistical reality is that a new round of primaries, mini or otherwise, simply cannot happen. The GOP would cry foul and sue to delay it (as they already plan to do if the candidate turns out to be anybody but Biden, anyway). The state parties wouldn't be able to agree on how to proceed. Nobody has any ability to campaign at all in that timeframe, except maybe in their home state, if they're already running for something. These are just the first issues that come to mind.

If you really want someone other than Biden or Harris, your options are "open convention" or "backroom deal."

7/5/2024 1:47:13 PM

^^^totally agree with the comment coming off the rails. I wrote out a post and decided not to post yesterday...but it had the words "first 3 bulletpoints" and "wreak havoc" in it. I also mentioned how first 3 points were fine, last 2 seemed off

7/5/2024 5:47:24 PM

fwiw the mini-primary concept came from Jim Clyburn. I know it's an "out there" idea and adds a lot of moving parts and uncertainty to an already chaotic next few weeks/months, but if he thinks it can work, I'm inclined to believe that if the Dems rally around the idea, they can use it as a springboard and give a shot of energy into the campaign, not only with the Dem base but also spark some interest if not enthusiasm from the independent voters that they will absolutely need to defeat trump

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/03/clyburn-biden-president-election-dnc-00166481

[Edited on July 6, 2024 at 11:54 AM. Reason : btw how'd everybody like the ABC interview. change any minds?]

oh, i'll also mention that somehow, biden's battleground state polling somehow improved since the debate in this bloomberg poll. whether or not this result is repeated in other polls i guess we'll find out

https://archive.is/ydupo

[Edited on July 6, 2024 at 12:18 PM. Reason : .]

7/6/2024 11:46:12 AM

Quote :

"Stephanopoulos: If you stay in, and Trump is elected and everything you're warning about comes to pass, how will you feel in January? Biden: I'll feel, as long as I gave it my all, and I did as good a job as I know I can do, that's what this is about."

In fact, that is most definitely NOT what this is about

7/6/2024 12:50:45 PM

Holy shit that comment.

7/6/2024 2:47:26 PM

Yeah and he either said good as or goodest, that quote is cleaned up. It is almost impossible for me to look at Joe as the nominee anymore

7/6/2024 3:00:10 PM

dont worry folks!

"id vote for joe bidens ice cream cone before id vote for trump!" - will be enough to win the election.

7/6/2024 10:25:09 PM

I guess the lawsuit that was filed, then retracted, about trump raping a 13 yo with Epstein is in the news again

And some NEWLY released Epstein documents that further show trump met with Epstein several times were also released.

7/6/2024 11:18:32 PM

Voters don't care about who Trump has raped.

7/7/2024 7:27:10 AM

Joe would be running away with this thing if he told nothing but lies, but was a little more coherent and awake seeming

7/7/2024 9:54:13 AM

And if he had raped a few more people.

7/7/2024 10:45:04 AM

Eric Levitz on Twitter over an endorsement tweet from AOC

Quote :

"The flood of endorsements this afternoon suggests the party has made its decision: Barring a literal face-plant at the presser, Biden will be the nominee. "

7/8/2024 8:36:38 PM

oops you missed this part

Quote :

"I think this is a colossal error in both political and moral terms. Hope I'm wrong."

7/8/2024 8:53:48 PM

I mean i think it's a mistake too, I was just posting the newsy part.

I think almost everyone in tww is unhappy about it.

7/8/2024 9:30:42 PM

Of course newsome aoc etc want him to stay in, they are angling for 2028

7/8/2024 10:19:47 PM

same shit with Gavin Newsome

there won't be a 2028 election the way they're heading

7/9/2024 10:23:01 AM

Everyone harassing Biden about dropping out has caused the campaign to seemingly start doing some rigorous campaigning finally

another example of why you can’t over analyze, and just try to do the ethically and morally right thing

7/9/2024 11:24:58 AM

I don't quite understand your last sentence.

7/9/2024 2:51:13 PM

^
Biden had a terrible debate performance. Given that, it’s sensible for people to call for him to step down. People did so. This causes Biden to push back and try harder.

If people had just kept silent and said “oh well bad days happen” instead of holding Biden accountable despite the jeering the opposition would do, Bidens team might have gotten too complacent.

[Edited on July 9, 2024 at 4:20 PM. Reason : ]

7/9/2024 4:20:10 PM

I see. Thank you. I wasn't previously clear who was doing the over analysis or the ethically and morally right thing.

7/9/2024 4:38:38 PM

Jon Stewart on the daily show nailed the segment on this

7/9/2024 7:49:53 PM

This is total bullshit tbh

7/9/2024 8:59:56 PM

I don’t really see how that’s total bullshit

just a statement of facts

7/9/2024 9:33:20 PM

Yes it’s a statement of facts.

I’d challenge him to speak that entire statement into a camera without a teleprompter. If he can do so without issue it may actually matter. A written statement ain’t gonna cut it anymore. Jon Stewart really nailed his segment last night with "unable or unwilling to respond in any way to the concerns of voters who just received new and urgent information about their candidate also erodes confidence and faith in the system of government."

7/9/2024 10:35:09 PM

i have written a statement that i think biden could handle without a teleprompter.

"neener"

7/10/2024 9:21:50 AM

Pelosi super noncommittal today. Kept saying she'd support whatever decision like he is wavering. This constant drip drip of people calling for him to get out will get deafening at some point and grandpa joe will step aside. At least thats how I see this playing out. Status quo just won't work

7/10/2024 2:42:08 PM

they're just trying to get past the NATO summit

7/10/2024 3:16:49 PM

^^
That’s my feeling too seems like the dam is going to break

Going to be the craziest election of our lives hopefully

Swapping candidates is a good story for Dems if they market it right. They listen to people. They solve problems. They react quickly. They take big bold risks for the benefit of the people.

I guess it makes sense if they’re arguing, correctly, that democracy is on the line, they have to fight like it actually is.

7/10/2024 3:20:16 PM

Joe isn't going anywhere and that will result in Trump being President again and GOP controlled Congress. Joe will then go back to Delaware and the next time we will hear from the Biden family will ne a press release informing everyone that Joe has been diagnosed with dementia (shocking).

7/10/2024 3:33:32 PM

could make a grown man cry...

7/10/2024 3:55:12 PM

emnsk, you repeatedly assured me that Biden would win in November!

7/10/2024 5:27:53 PM

Yes, I still believe that to be true. being somewhat sarcastic^^

7/10/2024 5:41:27 PM

Biden’s cooked, as the kids would say

It’s gotta happen next week

Going to be Kamala + ???

I hope they pick buttigieg but I have a feeling it’ll be someone lame like newsome (but not newsome because 2 California people can’t be good??)

7/11/2024 3:43:45 PM

Honest question, is there not any concern about literally getting the new names on the ballots if there is a switch? Especially in red states…. Ohio already tried some bullshit with Biden a few months back. I’m not necessarily against a switch, but it’s scary as hell. I’d much rather take my chances with Biden than lose democracy because republicans prevented getting correct names on a ballot in a key battleground state (and we know the highest court in the land would never fall on the dems side in this endeavor)

[Edited on July 11, 2024 at 4:00 PM. Reason : $$$]

7/11/2024 3:59:41 PM

the ballots don't get printed until after the convention when the party officially nominates its candidate. trump doesn't even have a VP yet. the ballots are not really an issue.

https://archive.is/9IrZL
https://ballotpedia.org/State_laws_and_party_rules_on_replacing_a_presidential_nominee,_2024

[Edited on July 11, 2024 at 4:21 PM. Reason : see also]

7/11/2024 4:16:31 PM