^^swarming on him like a pack of vagina bleeding bitches about nothing is though

[Edited on July 28, 2010 at 4:13 PM. Reason : ]

7/28/2010 4:13:10 PM

Quote :

"references are a reasonable expectation, but people are using his fuck-up as an opportunity to attack him personally that's not all that necessary"

A reasonable expectation? Really? This is a message board full of people that have attended (or are attending) a public university. Copying and pasting someone else's writing, and trying to pass it off as your own, is about as dishonest as it gets.

It doesn't diminish my opinion of God, though. I've suspected for some time now that he's a full blown troll, possibly one of the most talented that TSB has seen since I've been here. This is totally in character for him, he probably just wanted to see if anyone would bother to catch him on it.

7/28/2010 4:18:44 PM

Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 36%
Monday, July 26, 2010

Quote :

"Republican candidates now hold a 10-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, July 25, the widest gap between the two parties in several weeks."

http://tinyurl.com/l4cdqt

7/30/2010 3:14:36 PM

Why'd you go through the trouble to tinyurl this url: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

It clearly fits.


Oh wait, I get it


Gallup:


[Edited on July 30, 2010 at 3:52 PM. Reason : ]

7/30/2010 3:50:35 PM

^ I often try to shorten longer URLs--what's your problem with it? If one clicks on the link, it will be revealed that the poll is from Rasmussen--it's not like I'm trying to hide anything.

As things get worse for the Democrats, I guess this is what we have to look forward to. Bitter and increasingly vicious partisans that can't deal with the fact that the Democrats are screwing up will become more and more paranoid.

7/30/2010 4:13:33 PM

Boone, you better tone down your viciously bitter attude.

7/30/2010 4:19:34 PM

^ More paranoid than vicious there--but give it time.

7/30/2010 4:46:36 PM

Before you know it, I'll be compulsively swearing and assigning my opponents foul nicknames.

[Edited on July 30, 2010 at 5:45 PM. Reason : ]

7/30/2010 5:39:53 PM

^ You loved every minute of it.

7/30/2010 6:22:25 PM

I like how you attack his partisanship (as if anyone could even hold a candle to you in this category) rather than actually either disputing the difference in the polls or at least admitting it.

7/31/2010 2:51:59 AM

^ I find it astonishing that neither of you can see the problem with taking issue with my posting the Rasmussen poll but seeing no problem with yours in comparison. I picked a poll with results that support my position and Boone picked one that supports his position--what's the difference?

I mean, are you disputing Rasmussen's reliability? If you are, you should know that they have a track record of being quite reliable:

Quote :

"Last year, the progressive website FiveThirtyEight.com's pollster ratings, based on the 2008 presidential primaries, awarded Rasmussen the third-highest mark for its accuracy in predicting the outcome of the contests. And Rasmussen's final poll of the 2008 general election — showing Obama defeating Arizona Sen. John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent — closely mirrored the election's outcome."

Quote :

"'The way he does polls is that he's more likely to get high-energy voters,' said Tom Jensen, a pollster for the North Carolina-based Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. 'I think Rasmussen favors Republicans this year, but I don’t think he inherently favors Republicans.'"

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=DCAD6DDB-18FE-70B2-A8986E439331DA11

Quote :

"Before the election, we publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, which used recorded voices to read their poll questions."

Quote :

"Look who's laughing now. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins."

http://www.slate.com/id/2110860

In addition, on any given day, any of you on the left might challenge Rasmussen or Gallup, depending on the poll results. Hell, all you have to do is go to the Democratic Underground to see many there accusing Gallup of being owned by Republicans.

http://tinyurl.com/2eghs4p

And, Kris, stop calling me a partisan--and you aren't? Once again for your edification and that of others, the only political party I have ever been registered with is the Democratic Party and I voted for Bill Clinton for his first term. For over a decade now I have been registered as "Unaffiliated" and I have never voted a straight-party ticket in my life--I vote for some Democrats in every election.

[Edited on July 31, 2010 at 6:25 AM. Reason : Please just stop posting.]

7/31/2010 6:08:50 AM

come on hookshaw, look at boone's graph. There is no way the republicans pick up seats. I keep hearing report after report of how democrats are going to pick up large amount of seats in the house and senate.

7/31/2010 9:14:43 AM

Quote :

" find it astonishing that neither of you can see the problem with taking issue with my posting the Rasmussen poll but seeing no problem with yours in comparison."

It just about how much of a douche you are about it. You post your articles as if they were absolute evidence of something while completely ignoring anything that might go against your worldview.

Quote :

"In addition, on any given day, any of you on the left might challenge Rasmussen or Gallup"

Rasmussen has consistently been several points more conservative than other polls. That's why you hid the URL.

7/31/2010 10:58:23 AM

I will admit that Rass polls do tend to be more of a conservative outlier. Although one could argue that he catches the trends earlier. But I would have to agree with Kris on that point.

7/31/2010 12:26:19 PM

They seem to move on the trends at the same time as everyone else does as you can see by the similar shape between them & everyone else, they are just consistently more pro-republican than everyone else at pollster.com.

7/31/2010 12:52:24 PM

Quote :

"hooksaw: I find it astonishing that [people are as partisan as me]"

Is the gist of that paragraph, right? Although you misinterpreted my post. The difference between our posts is that you presented the most extreme poll in your favor as evidence. I posted the Gallup poll simply to show how full of crap you are.

Quote :

"I mean, are you disputing Rasmussen's reliability? If you are, you should know that they have a track record of being quite reliable: "

I am.








And as far as their history goes, they're not so stupendous for anyone to blindly trust their highly skewed house effect:

Quote :

"Their use of a likely voter model alone is not sufficient to explain the differences. Citing Rasmussen's success in calling past election outcomes, which is formidable, is also somewhat non-responsive, since their house effect was not so substantial in past election cycles."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html



[Edited on July 31, 2010 at 1:07 PM. Reason : ]

7/31/2010 1:02:13 PM

^ FiveThirtyEight is probably too math-y for hooks, i doubt he’ll understand it.

But nice link, they’re always an interesting read.

7/31/2010 2:58:26 PM

Some of you here are making a number of ridiculous assumptions, but carry on. My position stands and I will continue to use Rasmussen and other polls as I see fit.

BTW, concerning polls, I guess I should add this to the "Obama Flip-Flops" thread:

Obama Keeps Saying He Hates Polls But He's Dependent On Them
July 30, 2010

Quote :

"As you may have observed, the Obama administration -- like all administrations -- is pretty disdainful of polling. Speaking at a White House press briefing this week, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs chided CBS's Chip Reid for even bothering to bring up discouraging poll numbers, responding 'We're way too busy to sit around looking at polls.' But, as Sam Stein and Julian Hattem report, while the White House leaves the work up to the DNC, they are nevertheless way into polling. Way, way into polling. . . ."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/30/obama-keeps-saying-he-hat_n_665408.html



And since you love Gallup so much, Boone, they show the Democrat-led Congress has an embarrassing 11% approval rating--God knows I won't shorten the link!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141512/Congress-Ranks-Last-Confidence-Institutions.aspx

Yeah, everything's going just great for the Democrats--keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep at night.

^ Incorrect. But, sure, make it personal. You don't have anything else to offer.

7/31/2010 5:41:54 PM

When did I claim things were going great for the Democrats? I entered this thread today for the sole purpose of exposing how full of crap you are.

7/31/2010 9:22:55 PM

This probably should go in the impressive economy thread as well

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html?_r=1

8/1/2010 10:35:07 AM

^^ i wonder if hooksaw can now accept that Rasmussen recently has been one of the worse pollsters now that both you and supplanter have posted empirical evidence demonstrating this?

My guess is that he won’t accept he was wrong, then pic-bomb the thread while simultaneously attempting to deflect to some other issue.

8/1/2010 10:57:21 AM

^^^ and ^ Actually, it's the two of you using your standard tactics of ignoring, deflecting, misdirecting, or attacking or some combination of these. You wish to shift the focus to Rasmussen's accuracy, but that's not the central issue.

Let's say Rasmussen is a few points off or wrong altogether. So what? This still doesn't change the fact that things are not going well for Obama or Democrats in Congress--you're more than likely going to lose big time in November because your agenda sucks. This was the obvious point of my post--but please continue to shift the focus if it helps to comfort you.

Do you accept the Associated Press as a source?

GOP looks to erase Democrats' comfy House majority
(AP) – 7 hours ago

Quote :

"WASHINGTON — No fewer than 65 House seats across the country — an overwhelming majority held by Democrats — are at risk of changing political hands this fall, enough to bolster Republican hopes of regaining power and stoke fears in President Barack Obama's party of losing it. Even more races from California to New York could become competitive by November as voters look to blame someone for the sluggish economic recovery and take out their frustration on the Democrats who run the government. As of now, enough seats are in play that Republicans could gain the 39 they need to reclaim the House, dealing a blow to Obama in the first midterm elections of his presidency. Primary outcomes and national polls show a restless electorate and energized Republicans. Independents who propelled the Democrats to power in 2006 and 2008 in scores of swing districts are leaning toward the GOP, expressing concerns about excessive spending, government overreach and the spiraling national debt."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hV-mBdgX7g985O95DK9AhQg2i5PAD9HAQNN84

BTW, I didn't shorten the link so some of you wouldn't accuse me of "hiding" a source that's visible with one mouse click. I know how this distresses you.

8/1/2010 8:36:22 PM

OH SHIT! he responds

with an article that states the obvious

8/1/2010 8:40:20 PM

^ Thanks for your input, you barnacle.

8/1/2010 8:59:14 PM

Yes it looks like Pres. Obama is losing the swing voters who propelled him into office. He now needs a new group to keep him afloat. But what new voter group is left to fill the gap?

8/2/2010 1:02:05 AM

^ Illegal immigrants?

Apparently, some in the Obama administration have been floating a memo around the Hill that describes how Obama would bypass Congress to legalize illegal immigrants (check the last two pages and look for "Deferred Action").

http://www2.nationalreview.com/memo_UCIS_072910.html

[Edited on August 2, 2010 at 5:22 AM. Reason : .]

8/2/2010 5:14:47 AM

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting
August 30, 2010

Quote :

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress."

Quote :

"Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be 'very' enthusiastic about voting, and now hold -- by one point -- the largest such advantage of the year."

Quote :

"Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup's likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP's favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

IT'S GALLUP, Boone et al, NOT RAWRSMUSSEN, WHICH WAS APPARENTLY AHEAD OF THE GAME!

[Edited on September 1, 2010 at 4:11 AM. Reason : OMZOGBY, hooksaw DUMMYHEAD! YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND POLLS! GUFFAW!]

9/1/2010 4:05:16 AM

When a party has been out of power, self-identified members of said party become more enthusiastic about regaining that power?! While, concurrently, self-identified members of the party in power become complacent?

holy shit

RAWWRR RAWWR RAWWR YOU JUST DON'T WANT TO FACE FACTS - THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL SHOVEL THEIR DISPLEASURE WITH OBAMA ON THE DEMS AT THE POLLS. (I couldn't care less)

9/1/2010 7:49:08 AM

nothing to see here folks.

9/1/2010 8:27:22 AM

^^^ You do realize that just because Gallup says something similar to Rasmussen doesn't mean Rasmussen's methods are any good.

Right?

Rasmussen isn't "ahead of the game", they're still using bad survey methods.

9/1/2010 10:21:09 AM

^ Yet, they magically produced "similar" results. Some say it's better to be lucky than good.

But continue to attempt to shift the focus off the facts and make excuses for these results, which come from multiple polling organizations now--it's pathetic. The Democrats are going to lose in November because their agenda sucks. Poll that.

9/1/2010 3:23:05 PM

I'll be the first to say that "getting it right" doesn't mean a damned thing.

9/1/2010 6:43:19 PM

These polls--from competing organizations--show a trend that is consistent over about a two-month period:

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 46%, Democrats 36% - Rasmussen
Monday, July 26, 2010

http://tinyurl.com/l4cdqt

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot - Gallup
August 30, 2010

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

If some of you don't like Rasmussen's methodology, fine--I don't really care. Despite whatever shortcomings Rasmussen may have, they are fairly reliable--and it's certainly no worse than posting a Newsweek poll, which some here have done and I don't recall seeing many if any objections.

In any event, this to and fro over polling organizations is irrelevant. The real issue is that the Democrats' agenda is unpopular and the American people simply don't trust the Democrats' leadership on the issues--from GALLUP!

Americans Give GOP Edge on Most Election Issues
Greatest Republican advantages on terrorism, immigration, federal spending
September 1, 2010

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142730/Americans-Give-GOP-Edge-Election-Issues.aspx

Oh, and since some of you seem to love it so much, here's further analysis from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight:

How Did Democrats Get Here?
August 31, 2010

Quote :

"We talked this morning about the Democrats' poor electoral position — already shaky, it is probably now deteriorating further — but we haven't talked as much about why they are in this predicament. This is for a good reason: once you get past the premise that the state of the economy plays a large role (something that pretty much everyone would agree with), this is a difficult question to answer. The reasons for the Democrats' decline are, as we say in the business, overdetermined. That is, there are no lack of hypotheses to explain it: lots of causes for this one effect. The economy? Sure. Unpopular legislation like health care? Yep. Some 'bad luck' events like the Gulf Oil spill? Mmm-hmm. The new energy breathed into conservatives by the Tea Party movement? Uh-huh. And this hardly exhausts the theories. An inexperienced White House that has sometimes been surprisingly inept at coping with the 24/7 news media cycle? The poor optics associated with Democrats having had a filibuster-proof majority in theory, but not always in practice? All of the above."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/31/how-did-democrats-get-here/

[Edited on September 1, 2010 at 7:29 PM. Reason : ^ Okay.]

9/1/2010 7:08:21 PM

GOP poised to control 30 governor seats
Forecasting model shows particular success in Midwest swing states
2 hours 47 minutes ago

Quote :

"Republicans are on track to control approximately 30 governor seats after the Nov. 2 election, according to the FiveThirtyEight gubernatorial forecasting model. And they are likely to do particularly well in the swing states of the Midwest. Such an outcome would reverse the current state of the nation's governors' mansions, which are now held by 26 Democrats, 23 Republicans and 1 independent."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39001276/ns/politics-the_new_york_times

9/4/2010 1:14:21 AM

^NC's General Assembly too

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/gop-up-on-nc-generic-ballot.html

Quote :

"Likely voters for this fall in North Carolina say they're planning to vote Republican for the Legislature this year by a 49-41 margin. If that holds through November the GOP will almost definitely take control of the General Assembly."

---

Since its still within edit time, I'll answer the question below:

Quote :

"The Republican lead is coming not because folks who voted Democratic in 2008 are turning against the party, but because so many of them are planning to stay home. Only 6% of people who voted for Barack Obama now say they're planning to vote Republican for the Legislature this year. That number is identical to the 6% of John McCain voters who express an intent to support Democrats. But those planning to vote this fall supported John McCain by 9 points in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual narrow victory in the state. That massive enthusiasm gap is what has Republicans in a very strong position right now."

The poll says its unenthusiastic dems who aren't planning on voting at all.

[Edited on September 4, 2010 at 1:38 AM. Reason : .]

9/4/2010 1:18:14 AM

^ So, what do you attribute this to? It can't all be the economy.

9/4/2010 1:34:53 AM

Is the Republican lead widening?

Poll: Revolt Against Status Quo Gives Republicans Record Lead in 2010 Midterms
ABC News-Washington Post Poll: Dissatisfaction with Federal Government at Highest Level in 18 Years

Quote :

"Two months before the 2010 midterm elections, likely voters now favor the Republican over the Democratic candidate in their congressional district by 53-40 percent, the widest GOP margin on record in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1981."

http://tinyurl.com/39obbg4

It's not from Gallup, though. I sure hope these numbers will be accepted here.

9/9/2010 6:29:56 PM

Quote :

"Dissatisfaction with Federal Government at Highest Level in 18 Years"

And all President Obama can offer is only more of thing he knows best, the thing that warms his heart the most...more Federal government.

[Edited on September 10, 2010 at 12:24 AM. Reason : .]

9/10/2010 12:23:16 AM

^ But the voters don't trust Obama or the Democrats in Congress on the economy. And the economy was ranked as "extremely important" in a recent Gallup poll, just above the second-highest concern of jobs.

9/10/2010 2:31:47 AM

Neat how you take polls and ratings of the democratic congress, which has been weak and ineffective, and apply them to Obama, who has been effective and powerful. Is this the new GOP marching order?

9/10/2010 9:22:04 AM

Quote :

"...has been effective and powerful."

All presidents are powerful...that is not unique to Obama. And effective? Yes he has been effective in working towards his goals. Unfortunately his goal of tearing down this country aren't shared by the majority of Americans.

9/10/2010 11:00:39 AM

^^ For the thousandth time, I'm not in the GOP and I never have been--I don't know what their "marching orders" are. And Obama is a Democrat who doesn't operate in a vacuum--he and Congress are linked in a number of ways.

9/10/2010 1:10:02 PM

Quote :

"his goal of tearing down this country"

9/10/2010 4:52:17 PM

^ I guess this is the part where Boone totally ignores--in the thread he started--that the GOP is looking relatively credible and simply attacks others.

9/10/2010 5:04:39 PM

um. yeah.

becasue Obama is driven by a goal to tear down the country.

i mean, do you even pay attention any more?

9/10/2010 9:56:33 PM

Quote :

"What if Obama is so outside our comprehension, that only if you understand Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior, can you begin to piece together his actions? That is the most accurate, predictive model for his behavior."

-- Newt Gingrich, quoted by the National Review, arguing that President Obama "is fundamentally out of touch with how the world works."

9/12/2010 8:23:52 AM

^^What else would you expect of a Kenyanesian?

9/16/2010 3:15:36 AM

Quote :

"^ So, what do you attribute this to? It can't all be the economy."

9/16/2010 6:58:25 AM

Democrats' new logo:

9/17/2010 4:49:16 PM

I thought it was more like D grade circled atop a homework assignment proudly hung on the refrigerator.

9/17/2010 5:35:05 PM