To be fair, the best financial planning is often done while drunk after watching The Road Warrior.

8/9/2011 2:14:50 PM

I mean, offer up a real opinion. Medium to long-term prospects for the U.S. bond market. What happens when demand collapses and rates have to go up? We can't even deal with our deficit/debt problem with very lower interest rates. How are we going to do with with normal or even high interest rates?

8/9/2011 2:21:06 PM

We can revisit that question mid-2013 it looks like... For now.

8/9/2011 2:26:48 PM

This isn't new information everyone with a pulse knows the fed will never raise rates again prior to the USA defaulting. Raising rates makes us insolvent.

Look if I could figure all this stuff out surely you guys can too

8/9/2011 2:33:42 PM

8/9/2011 2:35:07 PM

Don't roll your eyes at me you little fuck, that's exactly the kind of trolling I'm talking about.

You'll get yours don't worry.


You know how they say Game On in Wayne's world?


CRASH ON!

8/9/2011 2:40:08 PM

I'm not trolling. I don't have any beef with what you're saying. The is in reference to how hard you are striving to get everyone to acknowledge the fact that you were right. When you make a good call like this you should gloat but not so hard.

"Gloating is fine, you just have to not suck at it."




Be happy with the cash you managed to make/save, don't revel in the trouble of others with the I told you so bit. There has to be a loser for you to come out a winner/right in this...


P.S. (This is what the alphabet would look like if you removed the letters Q and R) I didn't lose any money this past week...I just didn't make a show of it



[Edited on August 9, 2011 at 2:51 PM. Reason : .]

8/9/2011 2:45:15 PM

Okay sorry I misintrepreted.

I'm just frustrated with the apathy as this country falls apart.

There are still people out there who believe Obama, bernanke, geithner, etc are looking out for the country's best interest.

Hell, there are millions of Americans that can't even figure out we are headed for an economic catastrophe right now.

How do they figure out the ending to CSI, but they can't piece these facts together?

8/9/2011 2:54:57 PM

People hear what they want to hear.


That's Soap Box material, not this thread.

8/9/2011 2:57:29 PM

typing shit out like a deranged teabagger makes you look like a.... deranged teabagger.

it's not the message so much as the delivery that make everyone

[Edited on August 9, 2011 at 3:03 PM. Reason : @face]

8/9/2011 3:03:27 PM

I put forth very rational arguments on occasion, I just usually don't like typing long messages on my phone and when I'm home I'm drunk so I add flare.

There's nothing about being exciting that makes you wrong.

8/9/2011 3:07:51 PM

Treasury yields plunge, futures under 1150, this is not over. At least I hope not I'm holding a big bag of super expensive options.

8/9/2011 3:42:45 PM

nice end of day surge.

8/9/2011 4:04:00 PM

Lol, more bad news and the Dow shoots up 400. Looks like people still haven't learned their lesson

8/9/2011 4:06:24 PM

will probably unload the rest of my TNA tomorrow or day after..

8/9/2011 4:07:41 PM

That was nuts, 1097 to 1175.50, the overnight low was 1075. Thats a huge range. Anyone getting tired of algos and robo traders kicking this shit all over the map?

8/9/2011 5:32:57 PM

I just can't see how intraday moves like that could be anything other than computers. They need to put a tax on orders to cut the crap out.

8/9/2011 5:49:34 PM

Is it nuts to suggest that move was artificial? We started to sell off everyone ran to treasuries and then poof you are 80 bucks higher? Was that the fed blasting the shorts out of the water? This keeps getting better. Also was talking to treasury guys, they said they had a lot of action on the 100 call in across expirations , so that means someone expects rates to go negative big. That has to be bank problems right?

8/9/2011 5:51:12 PM

Id say there was a lot of short covering and a lot of people ready to buy because we were oversold short term.

Ultimately, I don't think anyone other than the usual suspects like Jim Cramer ( you know the guy who gave us the laughable "10 reasons to buy Bank of America" last week) will consider this anything more than a dead cat bounce.

Now we have to sit back and wait a little bit for some more economic numbers.

Just remember. Volatility is a characteristic of bear markets.

You don't get 1,000 point intraday gyrations in bull markets.

[Edited on August 9, 2011 at 6:12 PM. Reason : a]

8/9/2011 6:11:22 PM

Quote :

"Vested Interests When you watch the corporate mainstream media, or read a corporate run newspaper, or go to a corporate owned internet site you are going to get a view that is skewed to the perspective of the corporate owners. What all Americans must understand is everyone they see on TV or read in the mainstream press are part of the status quo. These people have all gotten rich under the current social and economic structure. Buffett, Kudlow, Cramer, Bartiromo, Senators, investment managers, Bill Gross, Lloyd Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, Jeff Immelt, and every person paraded on TV have a vested interest in propping up the existing structure. They are talking their book and their own best interests. Even though history has proven time and again the existing social order gets swept away like debris in a tsunami wave, the vested interests try to cling to their power, influence and wealth. Those benefitting from the existing economic structure will lie, obfuscate, misdirect, and use propaganda and misinformation to retain their positions. The establishment will seek to blame others, fear monger and avoid responsibility for their actions. Ron Paul plainly explains why the US was downgraded: “We were downgraded because of years of reckless spending, not because concerned Americans demanded we get our finances in order. The Washington establishment has spent us into near default and now a downgrade, and here they are again trying to escape responsibility for their negligence in handling the economy.” The standard talking points you have heard or will hear from the vested interests include: Stocks are undervalued based on forward PE ratios. Ignore the volatility in the market because stocks always go up in the long run. Buy the fucking dip. America is not going into recession. The market is dropping because the Tea Party held the country hostage. The S&P downgrade is meaningless because they rated toxic subprime mortgages AAA in 2005 – 2007. The market is dropping because the debt ceiling deal will crush the economy with the horrific austerity measures. The S&P downgrade is meaningless because Treasury rates declined after the downgrade. Foreigners will continue to buy our debt because they have no other options. Foreigners will continue to invest in the U.S. because Europe, Japan and China are in worse shape than the U.S. America is still the greatest economy on the planet and the safest place to invest. Each of these storylines is being used on a daily basis by the vested interests as they try to pull the wool over the eyes of average Americans. A smattering of truth is interspersed with lies to convince the non-thinking public their existing delusional beliefs are still valid. The storylines are false. Here are some basic truths the vested interests don’t want you to understand: As of two weeks ago the stock market was 40% overvalued based upon normalized S&P earnings and was priced to deliver 3% annual returns over the next decade. The S&P 500 has lost 17%, meaning it is only 23% overvalued. Truthful analysts John Hussman, Jeremy Grantham and Robert Shiller were all in agreement about the market being 40% overvalued. This decline is not a buying opportunity. The S&P 500 was trading at 1,119 on April 2, 1998. The S&P 500 closed at 1,119 yesterday. In March 2000 the S&P 500 traded at 1,527. By my calculation, the stock market is 27% below its peak eleven years ago. As you can see, stocks always go up in the long run. It is just depends on your definition of long. The talking heads on CNBC told you to buy the dip from October 2007 through until March 2009. The result was a 50% loss of your wealth. The government will report the onset of recession six months after it has already begun. People who live in the real world (not NYC or Washington DC) know the country has been in recession for the last seven months. The CNBC pundits don’t want to admit we are in a recession because they know the stock market drops 40% during recessions on average and don’t want you to sell before they do. The stock market held up remarkably well during the debt ceiling fight. It did not begin to plunge until Obama signed the toothless joke of a bill that doesn’t “cut” one dime of spending. The markets realized the politicians in Washington DC will never cut spending. The National Debt will rise from $14.5 trillion to $20 trillion by 2015 and to $25 trillion by 2021, even with the supposed austere spending “cuts”."

http://www.theburningplatform.com/

[Edited on August 9, 2011 at 6:22 PM. Reason : a]

8/9/2011 6:21:48 PM

So, where's your money Face?

8/10/2011 9:30:31 AM

We going down

8/10/2011 9:59:50 AM

Gold and cash of course.

I hate to be a Dick but its truly amazing how stupid people are being.

In 2008 it was surprising to just about everyone but seriously how did you not see this coming? I was drunk the past four years and couldn't have missed it if is tried

8/10/2011 10:19:35 AM

Good read above, but at 28, why not just buy all the way to the bottom and be red for the next decade?

8/10/2011 10:37:04 AM

Soc gen down 20%, things getting all freezy

8/10/2011 10:49:36 AM

Because that's dumb.

#1 rule of investing: don't lose money

#2 rule of investing: don't forget rule #1

8/10/2011 11:05:14 AM

I mean, sure, micromanaging my account could yield better results, but I'm too lazy to keep hopping in and out of equities.

8/10/2011 11:13:17 AM

So you're willing to go to work everyday for $200-$400 but you can't be bothered to spend 5 minutes to protect your life savings during a market collapse?

That's illogical.

You don't have to keep hopping in and out. Just hop out before it crashes. You can always get back in when its lower later.

8/10/2011 11:23:55 AM

But you've been saying it will crash for a while now. What happens if it hadn't happened until next year, or the year after?

8/10/2011 11:26:27 AM

This is really simple.

If the market is 40% overvalued there is no way to know which day will mark the absolute top.

However, you know for a fact that it will come crashing down eventually.

So the moment it begins to crash, get the fuck out.

You knew for a fact that without QE2 the market would crash, so to stay in stocks is dumb.


If you get out in may and the market crashes in august you still win. There aren't bonus points awarded for reaching a high paper value and then losing everything when fantasy prices revert to reality.

8/10/2011 11:32:42 AM

The best idea is to buy a gun and a case of sterno

8/10/2011 11:37:14 AM

How is that 40% overvaluation calculated? Who's to say it wouldn't get to 50%, 75%, etc?

8/10/2011 11:37:48 AM

a famous hedge fund manager once said, "since we can't predict the future, we price it"

...i for one would love to see tha math that implies the market was 40% overvalued.


..in any case, trailing stops saved my ass this time around. i was stopped out of a bunch of stuff a fortnight ago.

8/10/2011 11:53:18 AM

"The market has this always disturbing habit of ignoring the obvious and ignoring it some more, until, in the blink of an eye, it doesn't"


Learn your lesson. Don't confuse the stock market for the economy. Do not confuse price for value. And above all, don't listen to the financial media who profit off market maxims like "buy & hold" at your expense.

8/10/2011 12:06:00 PM

Why, because of a few down years?

8/10/2011 12:07:00 PM

ENTR making a nice pop off multi-year lows. (~$3.30)

PE of 4.00, over $2/share in cash on hand ...

Basically buying it at book value right now.

Just popped up to 3.60, and more upside than downside in my opinion.

8/10/2011 12:12:01 PM

A few down years??? Is that really what you think this is??

Tell me, how many economic apocalypses have you lived through exactly?

Do some research on Russia, Zimbabwe, weimar, and then get back to me when you realize the scope of this is 10,000% larger.

This isn't the time to be playing dumb.

8/10/2011 12:37:20 PM

You really think the entire US economy is going to collapse soon?

8/10/2011 1:09:21 PM

the sky is falling

8/10/2011 1:18:10 PM

Is anyone else on this emergency bank of America conference call?

Moynihan sounded awfully nervous.

Can't wait for them to squirm when they get to the good parts

8/10/2011 1:28:08 PM

Where's "40%" coming from chicken little?

8/10/2011 1:41:14 PM

S&P estimated fair value around 950 so do the math.

Read my post history its all addressed I have to get back to work

8/10/2011 1:52:33 PM

GTAT (SOLR) is moving against the market again. Its got a long way to go before I break even on that pick

8/10/2011 1:55:27 PM

Psh, you don't do "work" Face.

8/10/2011 1:59:46 PM

I'm making a killing playing the weekly option chain on FAS.

8/10/2011 3:43:21 PM

We have seen the CEOs of BofA, JPM, and Soc Gen telling us that everything is fine on cnbc , hummm. Any chance they are telling the truth? Par call for a .05 please

8/10/2011 4:04:37 PM

Repent all Ye sinners.


If I had someone warning me of all the dangers in 2007 I would have been very grateful.

Instead, you guys were jerks about it.

Sometimes listening is more productive than talking

8/10/2011 4:12:01 PM

i wanted to do some buying today just before the close in order to bet on a small uptick tomorrow, but the day job got the best of me..

8/10/2011 4:31:41 PM

Quote :

"Do not confuse price for value."

not at all.

there's the price efficiency vs. price inefficiency argument that economists continue to have, the way biologists used to argue about DNA replication being conservative vs. dispersive. some say "price is truth", whereas some make a living on nothing but arbitrage.

i've always contended that price is "semi-efficient", the same way (as we now know for a fact) that DNA is "semi-conservative".

8/10/2011 4:37:32 PM

Yeah you'd be surprised how many people believe in the "efficient market hypothesis" no matter how many times it has been disproven.

It's really one of the worst pieces of dogma to come out of the entire economic realm of study and that's saying something!

8/10/2011 4:48:25 PM