A team that had 10 straight playoff seasons and tanked because they didn't have an nfl caliber backup in place. If the Colts had started Dan Orlovski (who still isn't good, but is the only colts qb from last year still in the nfl) from the beginning they would have been just another mediocrely poor team, nowhere near 2-14.

12/27/2012 12:33:05 AM

how many NFL teams have an "NFL caliber backup" in place?

Peyton was their whole team the last 10 years before Luck, nobody is gonna argue that...the one year they had a decent defense aside from Freeney and Mathis they won the Super Bowl...and that year they still had the 32nd best run defense, iirc

its not like they signed/drafted a bunch of studs on defense in the Luck draft class

[Edited on December 27, 2012 at 12:35 AM. Reason : .]

12/27/2012 12:35:09 AM

Every team in the nfl has a backup better than Curtis painter.

This is proven by the fact that Curtis painter is not on an nfl team.

Jimmy Clausen presided over (half a season of) a 2 win team also, and even he is better than Painter.

12/27/2012 12:39:23 AM

i wouldnt go so far to say Clausen is better than Painter, but maybe I'm biased because Clausen fucking sucks

however, Newton, who I happen to think is a better QB than Luck, also took over a 2-14 team last season...but he only went 6-10 because he wasn't as clutch on 3rd down conversions or 4th quarter comebacks as Luck already is

12/27/2012 12:40:56 AM

Quote :

"So the question is, why give a flying fuck about how long the person's passes are? None of the elite QBs pass as long as luck because it has very little to do with being a good QB. If anything, this shows that better QBs throw shorter."

This is incorrect, as you showed yourself by Drew Brees' stats.

Throwing shorter is more efficient. This is why WCOs dominated the shit out of the NFL for years while the Air Coryell was only used by shitty organizations like the Chargers and Panthers (current iteration as well as Henning). Passing is also more efficient than rushing, which is why you see the best teams pass the ball as much as they can without overbalancing their offense while the shitty teams (again, see: Panthers) try to build around the run.

The offenses dinosaur NFL teams are finally adopting from college are even more efficient as they bring back positive running gains with minimal investment and couple them with short, often open passes.

Unfortunately, there are still a lot of dumbass teams that are not smart enough to use the Pistol and read option. Or in the Pats case, a spread on steroids with baller TEs and Wes Welker.

Brees isnt any shittier a player this year than he was in the past. He just has shittier coaching and has to press more because he's being asked to make more difficult throws in distressed situations. He made a living dinking and dunking teams to death in prior years so I really doubt this is some Jake Delhomme shit he's going to do going forward.

Measuring efficiency is great, but it isn't the end all be all determinant of worth. Scott Wood destroys in offensive efficiency every year while CJ Leslie's hasn't been great. However, Scott Wood sucks balls against good, athletic teams in games that matter while CJ is typically our most effective player in those situations.

I don't know how you can say Alex Smith is an outlier? He is no more an outlier of completion percentage and INT% than Wood, Brady Heslip, Nik Stauskas or any of a hundred other catch and shoot specialists are of offensive efficiency. Those guys aren't the best offensive players in college basketball and Alex Smith isn't the most accurate or best QB in the NFL.

AJ McCarron had the #1 QB efficiency in college this year. Tajh Boyd and EJ Manuel were both in the top 10. Tino Sunseri was 17th

Also, throwing a ton of INTs in an unnecessarily complex passing offense isn't preventative of success. Eli has done just fine doing that, actually. Eli is what he is though, and his brother would be even more effective doing the same thing.

tl;dr Luck hasn't been good enough this year to win the ROY. Suggesting he has been "bad" because your stats that said Phil Rivers was the best QB in NFL history a few years ago say so, however, is dumb.

If the Pats came out on Sunday and called for Tom Brady throw this pass http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUGj5qQFnnc every play his stats would look like shit. He would still be Tom Brady.

[Edited on December 27, 2012 at 2:25 AM. Reason : .]

12/27/2012 2:10:31 AM

You are all over the place there and refuting arguments I didn't even make, and I'm not sure that you're sure what side of the argument I'm on. I've said that luck has been average, not bad, and that Wilson and RG3 are clearly more deserving of ROY. I'd give the nod to RG3 right now.

The only thing I care to address is that I said that Luck's season this year has been like Rivers' season this year, not Rivers' career. We all agree that Rivers has not done as well as Wilson or Griffin this year, but somehow we can't agree that Luck hasn't either. If SD had played the easiest schedule in the NFL (they were 17), they could be playoff bound, too.

You people fail to understand that stats aren't perfect models of truth, only an approximation. However, they are some of the better tools we have, they are certainly better than dumbass Treewista10 opinions, better than most sports writers and commentators opinions and predictions, and better than a fair chunk of NFL organizations that haven't yet adopted them.

You can be certain that most sports teams will have fully integrated advanced stats into their operations within the next 5-10 years, though, because the teams that do so successfully have an advantage over the ones that don't. We saw this in how Nate Silver, by competently applying stats, destroyed all of the election commentators and Fox news. Pro teams want to do that to each other.

Non-stat-geeks will resist because it means the games are becoming something they can't understand. Oh well.

12/27/2012 2:52:46 AM

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/12/26/3795398/andrew-luck-should-win-2012-nfl-rookie-of-the-year-and-heres-why


http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1456500-nfl-rookie-of-the-year-4-touchdown-performance-moves-russell-wilson-to-front


http://m.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/robert-griffin-iii-is-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-and-its-no-contest/2012/12/24/8ead24a6-4e17-11e2-950a-7863a013264b_story.html

Seems pretty obvious and cut and dry to me! No way that all 3 have very valid arguments to rookie of the year certainly there are just stupid people in this thread clearly there is no debate at all.

12/27/2012 5:58:32 AM

Quote :

"Seattle has a much better run game and a much better defense than either team"

Defense, I'll grant you. But if you can explain how Seattle has a "much better run game...than either team" when the Redskins have more yards, a higher per-carry-average, and more TDs, I'm all ears.

12/27/2012 8:16:24 AM

I could've worded that more clearly

Seattle has a much better run game than the Colts, and a much better defense than either the Colts or Redskins

12/27/2012 8:18:28 AM

The amount of trolling in this thread is unreal. There is no way anyone believes Luck has been a good QB this year.

The Colts blow

12/27/2012 8:37:31 AM

^exactly


Being better than Curtis Painter and a washed up Kerry Collins doesn't exactly make one a "good" quarterback.

12/27/2012 8:44:31 AM

Wilson 2012

12/27/2012 8:51:33 AM

RGIII is a pro-bowler. Luck and RW are not.



SUCK IT.

12/27/2012 8:53:08 AM

12/27/2012 9:07:02 AM

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8780238/nfl-russell-wilson-exceeding-expectations-seattle

12/27/2012 9:35:04 AM

Dear Russell Wilson,

Thanks for playing like a badass and giving me a team to pull for in the playoffs since the Panthers and Chargers are both ruling a certain porcelain receptacle. Plz2winSuperBowl and further escalate mancrush.

12/27/2012 9:47:10 AM

^^^^ As if the Pro Bowl means jack squat. Fucking David Garrad made it one year.




[Edited on December 27, 2012 at 9:50 AM. Reason : gh]

12/27/2012 9:50:18 AM

Luck will most likely play in the Pro Bowl as first alternate, unless somehow neither the Patriots, Broncos or Texans make the Super Bowl

12/27/2012 9:59:35 AM

I would say Luck could have RGIIIs spot but wrong conference and all. Maybe he'll hand it off to RW to fill the black QB pro-bowl quota.

12/27/2012 10:19:07 AM

Quote :

"You people fail to understand that stats aren't perfect models of truth, only an approximation. However, they are some of the better tools we have, they are certainly better than dumbass Treewista10 opinions, better than most sports writers and commentators opinions and predictions, and better than a fair chunk of NFL organizations that haven't yet adopted them."

Stats are only as good as their inputs.

Nate Silver shit on the political world in 08 and this year because he has a lot of inputs and they are rock solid. He didn't do as well in the 2010 mid-terms in the House as he admits due to a lack of inputs.

He's also at the start of a movement in an area with a lot of dumbass luddites.

That's not where sports is.

Right now a lot of statistical models are being broken (or at least will need adjustments) because of the way offenses are changing.

The LCF face has mentioned a few times is a good example of this. It made sense 15 years ago when it was modeled on Peyton Manning vs Ryan Leaf.

Now? Well they had to change it because it looked like this:



It has more and better inputs now. Still has some issues (this list is missing Colt McCoy with a 2000+ DYAR score) but a lot better and has a success rate better than the scouts, especially when you look at how well it identifies busts.





Using that as your sole identifier isn't winning you anything, though. All the smart organizations have access to and are already using statistics. You have to be able to take these tools and use them as what they are - not as an entire model.

Otherwise you would've drafted Blaine Gabbert over Cam Newton. Or taken Phil Rivers over every QB in NFL history in 2010.

I'm not suggesting anywhere that RG3 or RW haven't had better years than Luck. I do think their statistical performance is overestimating their overall ability, while Luck's is underestimating his...although that is really irrelevant as far as determining a ROY, and in any case they're ahead of Luck (although RG3's total value is diminished from not playing some as well).

[Edited on December 27, 2012 at 10:37 AM. Reason : ,]

12/27/2012 10:37:34 AM

^you take that logical well thought out post and get the fuck out of here.

12/27/2012 10:40:39 AM

Who cares about RGIII making the Pro Bowl? Jeff Saturday made the Pro Bowl as a BACK-UP Center that played so bad he got benched earlier in the season. It's a popularity contest, and you haven't been able to turn on ESPN without hearing RGIII or Luck's name all season.

Luck is getting that Lebron James-like backlash. He was anointed the "chosen one" while in college, and people were hoping he'd suck when he went pro, just like Lebron out of high school. Now that he's had a good season, people are trying to nit-pick and say he had a bad year. It's kind of laughable. Breaking rookie QB records and making the playoffs. I'm sure most rookie QBs would love to have such a bad year.

12/27/2012 11:06:07 AM

No, I really like Luck and I think he will be a top QB in a few years. He just wasn't good this year.

12/27/2012 11:30:34 AM

Quote :

"It's a popularity contest"

Yep - and the ROY will also factor this in... edge to RGIII for selling more jerseys than anyone else in history - the most important stat unfortunately

12/27/2012 11:40:27 AM

Yep the RGIII hype machine started way too long ago to be overcome at this point. This is just one of those years that 4 guys would have likely won it any other year but this year they all deserve it but only one can win it.

12/27/2012 12:42:40 PM

You say the word hype like its unsubstantiated

12/27/2012 4:45:42 PM

football is dumb.

12/27/2012 4:47:49 PM

Quote :

"SUPERMAN SOCKS HYPE"

12/27/2012 6:48:24 PM

as of right now, RW has the 22nd best QBR of any QB since 2008

(factor in 4 years of Tom Brady, 4 years of Manning, 5 years of brees, 4 years of Rodgers etc) and that's pretty damn good.





[Edited on December 28, 2012 at 2:29 AM. Reason : c]

12/28/2012 2:28:23 AM

LOL QBR

I bet you also watch First Take

12/28/2012 8:44:45 AM

RW is a cornball brotha.

12/28/2012 8:46:15 AM

I didnt say that i value a player by the qbr ranking. Just pointed out that he was the 22nd best since 2008, troll

12/28/2012 8:52:25 AM

Quote :

"A team that had 10 straight playoff seasons and tanked because they didn't have an nfl caliber backup in place. "

this can't be stated enough. the colts sucked balls last year because they had ZERO quarterback talent. painter wasn't even that a good college qb. harrison beck may have been an improvement over painter.

12/28/2012 1:38:42 PM

ESPN ditched the QBR stat. last year when they realized it was fucking stupid, but I guess they couldn't live with decision, so they just started bringing it up again

12/28/2012 1:51:54 PM

The still use QBR http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr. They did teak it when tebow in the offseason because tebow was #1 and drew Brees was like 20th.

They put way to much weight to the 4th qrt. So when a QB has beat the shit out of a team it hurt his QBR but when a team sucks and then comes back and wins it in the 4qrt his QBR skyrockets.

They adjust that.

12/28/2012 2:29:46 PM

Starting QB's in the NFL

NC State: 2*

Duke: 1


UNC: 0**



* About to be 3 next year.


** A buddy of mine saw TJ Yates doing cocaine in the castle the night before a game.

12/30/2012 1:52:46 PM

Luck had a decent game, 14/28 for 2 TDs, 0 INT, but also a win over the Texans to go to 11-5

lets see what Wilson does in a few minutes and RG3 tonight...if they both have good games its probably RG3's to lose...if they both shut the bed, Luck is still in the mix

but once again, all three of these guys should have baller careers over the next 10 years (if Griffin can stay healthy)

12/30/2012 4:21:32 PM

Damn it, wanted a pass for the record. Great game again by RW though.

12/30/2012 7:30:48 PM

Crown him

12/30/2012 8:33:46 PM

Quote :

"If RW wins a Super Bowl as a rookie I will hang a shirtless oil painting of him over my bed for one year. Done."

12/30/2012 8:40:11 PM

the media loves Russell

12/30/2012 8:41:23 PM

what's not to like about the 3rd best QB in the rookie class?

Alfred Morris deserves the ROY more that Wilson does

#trollsohard

12/30/2012 11:43:19 PM

You had a great run this year, Russell. It's too bad your team has to fly all the way across the country and then play
a game. Fucked by jet lag and the time change, but that's the way it goes.

12/30/2012 11:44:55 PM

Lol. Seahawks by 20

12/30/2012 11:45:39 PM

The division winner getting a higher seed regardless of record is BS

12/30/2012 11:47:24 PM

Sorry guys but your team is a dead fucking duck against this buzzsaw. You need a miracle to compete.

Seattle is a legitimate team. Redskins are dead.

[Edited on December 31, 2012 at 12:01 AM. Reason : a]

12/30/2012 11:58:21 PM

seattle is a for shit road team. and that was against a for shit away schedule

Quote :

"The division winner getting a higher seed regardless of record is BS"

how about beating ONE out of Miami, Detroit, St. Louis, or Arizona on the road before you start bitching about that shit

4 horrid losses. win ANY of those games against for shit teams and you win your division.

[Edited on December 31, 2012 at 12:16 AM. Reason : deal with it]

12/31/2012 12:14:40 AM

dude relax. Redskins making the playoffs is cute and all, but you have to play real teams now.

Seattle will completely wax that ass.

They'll rip Atlanta too. They're already looking towards the San Fran/GB matchup in the NFC title game.

12/31/2012 12:31:20 AM

They aren't a bad road team anymore. Seattle has been significantly better in the second half. The change is very noticeable and large in their offensive categories (because of your hero, Russell Wilson).

You better hope the skins don't underestimate them on the road.

[Edited on December 31, 2012 at 12:36 AM. Reason : ^^]

12/31/2012 12:32:26 AM

The Redskins SOS was pretty bad, but winning 7 in a row shouldn't be disrespected and they certainly aren't the team they started out to be. I think the Wilson/RGIII matchup will be awesome. I'm looking forward to it.

12/31/2012 12:37:55 AM