V

4/22/2010 7:35:11 PM

Quote :

"dear god what is happening. we're losing all three unproductive players from last season and potentially landing 4 stud recruits?"

hell, we're only losing 22 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists and easily bringing in 50 points, 25 rebounds and 22 assists

I predict we average 95 ppg next season!!!

4/22/2010 7:37:27 PM

Quote :

"hell, we're only losing 22 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists and easily bringing in 50 points, 25 rebounds and 22 assists"

More realistic numbers to bring in:

35-40 Points (of course someone like Javi's point total will go down) 15 rebounds and 15 assists

Probably average closer to 75 PPG

4/22/2010 7:59:56 PM

It would be some anti-NC State shit to suddenly have a scholarship open up and get Leslie plus another good forward that wasn't even on anybody's radar a week ago

4/22/2010 8:05:34 PM

the team will avg 2.75 double-doubles per game

and .33 triple-doubles per game!!

4/22/2010 8:06:47 PM

from the last page:

Quote :

"i'm not too familiar with local 3-A basketball, so can you guys fill me in on Mabry's competition: Southern Nash, Northern Nash, Nash Central, Beddingfield, SW Edgecombe, Hertford County...."

4/22/2010 8:15:31 PM

you could google it, but it sounds like you already know. why are you asking?

4/22/2010 8:21:08 PM

google can tell me stats, but I want to know from people who went to high school around here

4/22/2010 8:23:33 PM

Nash county is not a basketball talent hotbed, if that's what you're asking. SW Edgecombe was in my conference in HS and from what I can recall, he's probably playing against a good number of short white boys.

4/22/2010 8:28:48 PM

Using Google to prove the obvious, NCSU is way more interested in CJL than Kentucky.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=cj+leslie

4/22/2010 8:34:42 PM

just for fun, luls from the first page

Quote :

"I expect Javi will likely transfer. I don't see him getting any PT over Johnson and Degand."

4/22/2010 8:34:49 PM

i'm somewhat familiar with the area (i have family there), and i woulnd't guess that it was all "short white boys". but that's just from casual observations. Rocky Mount HS is the '10 3A basketball champs and '08 baseball champs.

4/22/2010 8:38:20 PM

http://www.google.com/trends?q=nc+state,+unc+chapel+hill,+duke+university,+wake+forest&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

check that shit out

4/22/2010 8:42:54 PM

If I had to guess (without seeing these guys play) I'd estimate the following:

Harrow 6 ppg, 3 ast

Brown 9.5 ppg, 1.5 ast

CJL (if he comes) 12 ppg, 6 reb

I really don't know anything about Mabry so I'll be conservative and say 2.5 ppg, 2 reb

None of these numbers leap off the page, but they are an improvement over the guys we are replacing.

I think the real growth from the team will come from a few sources:

1) If teams continue to double or collapse on Tracy in the post (which I think they will have to) he will have guys he can kick it out to who are threats on the perimeter (Wood, Brown, Javi, possibly Harrow) whereas before they'd be all over Wood and we'd swing it around with Degand/Mays/Davis/CJW who were not able to take advantage of their open looks.

2) I think Howell will be a major upgrade over Horner for our defense/rebounding and will score enough offensively that we don't lose much on that end either.

3) I think CJ Williams will play more like he did at the end of the year which gives us a solid two way player at the 2/3

4) I think Painter will play well as the third forward when Howell inevitably gets into foul trouble. He seems to be a good positional defender and he showed a few post moves in his limited minutes.

5) Our offense won't completely shut down everytime Javi goes to the bench and we bring in Harrow like it did with Mays.


All of those 5 things happen whether or not CJ and Mabry sign the bottom line. Without them we are a tournament team. With them, we're a threat in the tournament and we put our name on the map as landing top tier talent for future recruiting classes.

You get the feeling that CJL wants to commit to NC State but is scared about how it will hurt his prestige. We need recruits to view State as a school that doesn't threaten their NBA chances or national audience attention. Winning a forefront recruiting battle against Kentucky will have a bigger impact overall on the program than the handful of baskets he scores before bouncing for the next level.

[Edited on April 22, 2010 at 8:47 PM. Reason : edit]

4/22/2010 8:44:16 PM

This may be a bit more accurate in relation to bball:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=nc+state+basketball%2C+unc+basketball%2C+duke+basketball%2C+wake+forest+basketball&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

4/22/2010 8:46:53 PM

http://www.google.com/trends?q=porn,+windows,+google,+school,+games&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

4/22/2010 8:52:25 PM

Quote :

"so i think cj got word of mays transferring, and knew that state may be interested in mabry. since they're good friends, cj thought that he would see if mabry could get a scholly for next year too. lowe probably said in so many words "yes," and cj probably said in so many words "i'll commit." but cj wanted to wait, just to make sure (and just to get more attention), so they all agreed to keep it under wraps until he holds a press conference after he gets a free visit to uconn and after the nfl draft hype dies down."

i picture you saying this running out of breath with excitement, lol

4/22/2010 9:49:53 PM

so we lose horner, degand, and mays, who accounted for ~22 ppg. last season, we averaged 66.6 ppg (coincidence?) which means the 3 guys accounted for roughly 33% of our scoring. we were 227th overall out of 334 teams in Division 1. if we do well this year, which lowe is counting on, we should be in the top half overall in scoring points per game, which this year was 69.1. if we're a tournament team, it should probably be even higher so let's say 70 ppg.

to reach that 70 ppg barrier, we'd need about 25.5 ppg of production between the freshmen and upperclassmen's increase in their previous year's average.

javi went from 2-6.5-9.5 ppg in 3 years, so let's say 10 ppg (+0.5)
tracy went from 3-10-16.5 in 3 years, let's say 19 ppg (+2.5)
cj went from 3.5-4 in 2 years, let's say 4 ppg (+0)
johnny went from 2-1 in 2 years, let's say 1 ppg (+0)

vandy had 1 ppg so maybe 2 ppg next year (+1)
josh had 2.5 ppg, maybe 3 ppg (+0.5)
howell had 5 ppg, maybe 8 ppg (+3)
painter had 1.5 ppg, maybe 3 ppg (+1.5)
wood had 7.75 ppg, maybe 10 ppg (+2.25)

the averages of the guys coming back may differ between players (i'd look for the biggest increase between wood and howell) but let's say they increase their production by 11 ppg. that means the 3-4 freshmen would have to produce 14.5 ppg, which seems doable given their pedigrees. it'll be easier if leslie is a part of that group but it's not out of reach without him.

does that mean we'll make the ncaa tournament? no, but it can't hurt to score more points. keep in mind that last year's leader in ppg in DI was VMI. do you know what their record was? 10-19. they had the worst scoring defense to complement the best scoring offense; an impressive feat. being a great team is more than just scoring baskets. let's hope our coaching staff can mold these guys into a successful team.

4/22/2010 10:09:04 PM

^just stop. you suck at analysis. Only the actual numbers are worth something. The rest is drivel

4/22/2010 10:15:51 PM

I think one of the biggest things about snagging Leslie and Mabry would be depth. We would be 3 deep at some positions and not lose a whole ton of scoring/defense. Mabry adds another 3 pt shooter and athleticism which just gives us more threats to open up Tracy/Painter/TBDV/Howell down low.

4/22/2010 10:16:28 PM

Honestly

That aph post is one of the dumbest things I've ever read

4/22/2010 10:17:23 PM

aph for mod!

4/22/2010 10:18:01 PM

that post took a lot of work! gg, TWWer

4/22/2010 10:18:32 PM

I BELIEVE IN APH.

4/22/2010 10:20:33 PM

haha that sounds exactly like something i would think.. but i would never actually type it out

4/22/2010 10:20:46 PM

are Mabry and Leslie ready to play in an NBA-style defense?

4/22/2010 10:22:38 PM

I'll need someone to wildly guess their per-game contributions before I can answer that question

4/22/2010 10:24:45 PM

Quote :

"i'm somewhat familiar with the area (i have family there), and i woulnd't guess that it was all "short white boys". but that's just from casual observations. Rocky Mount HS is the '10 3A basketball champs and '08 baseball champs. "

Haha, I didn't say that its ONLY short white dudes...this is eastern NC we're talking about. It was more a generalization that the competition usually sucked. Plus SW Edgecombe (and many of the other twin county schools) is more of a rural school. I'd bet Rocky Mount is considerably larger (especially considering SWE was 2A just a few years ago) and has more of an inner city feel. Kind of like Kinston High.

And baseball is a completely different creature in this neck of the woods. Baseball is GOD in eastern NC. I knew one kid that had a full blown batting cage in his backyard.

4/22/2010 10:24:52 PM

so did Mabry get any other offers, besides us, Winthrop, Elon and UNCW?

4/22/2010 10:25:58 PM

Teams that averaged 70-71 points per game last season

123 4 70.9 Centenary Summit League 29
124 4 70.8 Illinois Big Ten 36
125 6 70.7 Texas-San Antonio Southland 30
125 4 70.7 Massachusetts A-10 32
127 5 70.6 Georgia Southern SoCon 32
127 5 70.6 North Dakota State Summit League 29
127 2 70.6 Norfolk State MEAC 30
127 3 70.6 Akron MAC 35
127 4 70.6 Wyoming Mountain West 31
132 5 70.5 San Francisco West Coast 30
132 5 70.5 Purdue Big Ten 35
134 5 70.4 La Salle A-10 30
135 6 70.3 Duquesne A-10 32
135 5 70.3 San Diego State Mountain West 34
135 6 70.3 George Washington A-10 31
138 4 70.2 Northern Arizona Big Sky 28
138 8 70.2 Dayton A-10 37
138 2 70.2 Vermont America East 35
138 4 70.2 Cal Poly Big West 31
142 6 70.1 Oral Roberts Summit League 33
142 9 70.1 St. Bonaventure A-10 31
142 4 70.1 Kent State MAC 34
142 2 70.1 Hofstra CAA 34
142 2 70.1 Southern Illinois Missouri Valley 30
147 10 70.0 Connecticut Big East 34

Clearly this is a formula for success

4/22/2010 10:27:32 PM

CJ Leslie is an underrated defender

4/22/2010 10:34:09 PM

Quote :

"I'll need someone to wildly guess their per-game contributions before I can answer that question"

hahahaha

4/22/2010 10:40:25 PM

I bet aph483 really likes POWER RANKINGS

4/22/2010 10:42:57 PM

i can't wait to see CJL play in something other than an AAU/invite/All-Star game!

you don't get a feel for their defensive ability when you see those games

4/22/2010 10:45:51 PM

Quote :

"so did Mabry get any other offers, besides us, Winthrop, Elon and UNCW?"

Quote :

"i'm not too familiar with local 3-A basketball, so can you guys fill me in on Mabry's competition: Southern Nash, Northern Nash, Nash Central, Beddingfield, SW Edgecombe, Hertford County...."

Quote :

"i dont mean pro sports cuz that just takes experience into account. i mean raw athleticism"

4/22/2010 10:46:38 PM

Quote :

"just stop. you suck at analysis"

yep, i agree.

Quote :

"That aph post is one of the dumbest things I've ever read"

what was that specifically was dumb about it?

Quote :

"aph for mod!"

this is why i don't post often. usually my post are irrelevant or take a thread completely of topic. i'm glad you still believe in me though

Quote :

"haha that sounds exactly like something i would think.. but i would never actually type it out"

i'm like a comedian! i'm posting what everyone is thinking.... for better or worse. most likely worse.

Quote :

"Teams that averaged 70-71 points per game last season"

read the last paragraph of my post

i hope i answered everyone's questions and concerns about our basketball team's future. i'll be here all weekend, so please feel free to ask me for more details

4/22/2010 10:47:14 PM

how was the aph post any different from the rally post? I thought they were both pretty decent speculatory posts which is all thats possible at this point.

4/22/2010 10:49:37 PM

yeah but you know rally doesn't really mean it.

4/22/2010 10:53:29 PM

1. You just fucking guessed at individual improvements in points per game.
2. What kind of stupid arbitrary number is 70 PPG?
3. Does averaging 70 PPG correlate with success?
4. How many PPG did Butler average?
5. PPG is a stupid metric that doesn't mean anything.
6. Fuck you, you ass.

4/22/2010 10:55:15 PM

yeah i agree, Coach Lowe needs to hire Julius Hodge as a recruiter, he has some crazy passion for this university and he was always a class act while he was here!


I dont know much about this Mabry guy but i like those stats!

4/22/2010 11:00:07 PM

jesus christ. yeah, i did just guess at improvements. blasphemy. if you read my post, 70 ppg is the number of points scored by 50% of the teams last year per game. it doesn't correlate for success, i'm just trying to estimate what the freshman might need to accomplish next year. i don't know how many ppg butler averaged, i didn't look it up. saying ppg doesn't mean anything isn't true. you need to score to win games, it's just not the only indicator of a good team. i thought i mentioned that in my post but if i didn't and you inferred it, i'm sorry.

i didn't mean any ill will from that post. sorry if you took it that way.

4/22/2010 11:01:34 PM

OH DON'T WORRY APH. I'LL ALWAYS BELIEVE.

4/22/2010 11:02:00 PM

Quote :

"saying ppg doesn't mean anything isn't true."

You don't win games by scoring a lot of points

You win games by scoring and defending efficiently

C'mon guy

What's the DH?

4/22/2010 11:03:15 PM

thanks, fenway! as long as you do, i'll keep putting presents under your tree and money under your pillow

4/22/2010 11:03:57 PM

Quote :

"You don't win games by scoring a lot of points"

most of time, you do win by scoring points. sure, if you can't play defense like the VMI example in the first post, you won't win many games. look at the non mid-major teams that have a high scoring average. they did pretty well last year.

i'll post the last sentence from my OP

Quote :

"being a great team is more than just scoring baskets. let's hope our coaching staff can mold these guys into a successful team."

4/22/2010 11:08:32 PM

did aph319 ask what the DH was recently? i think someone said something about it in the mod vote thread, but i didn't get it.

4/22/2010 11:10:19 PM

^^ Seriously, fuck yourself

^ message_topic.aspx?topic=397023&page=1#8509684

Quote :

"Ernie All American 32686 Posts user info edit post beardawg is going to be a worse mod than carzin at least carzin knows what the god damn DH is fuck tww 3/27/2006 6:56:11 PM"

[Edited on April 22, 2010 at 11:12 PM. Reason : SO IT WAS WRITTEN, SO IT WAS TRUE, DO NOT FAIL ME AGAIN TWW]

4/22/2010 11:11:31 PM

Gravis post on premium: "Once CJL makes it official ......Mabry could get an offer within days."

4/22/2010 11:12:59 PM

Quote :

"Gravis post on premium: "Once CJL makes it official ......Mabry could get an offer within days.""

it shall never be edited

4/22/2010 11:14:26 PM

what's got you riled up tonight? i didn't think my post was anything inflammatory.

4/22/2010 11:14:34 PM