Quote :

"Up 20%30% on this play so far."

3/25/2009 1:20:46 PM

FAS at 6.30? anyone?

waiting

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 1:37 PM. Reason : ]

3/25/2009 1:25:45 PM

I wouldn't. Looks like the market wants to retreat back to 805 on the S&P

3/25/2009 1:27:14 PM

What do you guys think of BAC at $7.64? Want to get in for the long haul, but I know it got as low as $3.30 earlier in the month. Fuck I should have bought when I saw it at $4.25.

3/25/2009 1:34:22 PM

if i were you i wouldn't do FAS, its too leveraged and any major turn could be too risky.

if you want a reasonable safe play. i'd purcahse BAC around 3:15 or 3:30 and then sell at the bell tomorrow.

its tapping its bollinger bands and pushing it further downward, but it still has some support levels left to break. its an easy swing trade.

for what its worth, all the financials are slipping down past the bollinger and aren't being supported by it. Their short term stochastics suggest they're due for an upswing so that would definitely be intra-day/open tomorrow but the daily's show a much grimmer tale.

3/25/2009 1:43:02 PM

Quote :

""Up 20%30%42% on this play so far."

I should probably just take some profit and be happy. But I'm like everyone else here and I am greedy.

3/25/2009 1:45:26 PM

buy didn't go through on FAS at 6.05 - at 6.20 a few minutes later lol

3/25/2009 1:49:02 PM

I'd take a piece of FAS here at 6.20 with a stop set at 6 or a little lower. Two possibilities are we bounce off this 805 support and head up for a little bit, FAS will touch 6.50-6.70 in that case. Or we fail to hold the support and dip under, which would be a bit of a disaster (which is why you have the stop set).

3/25/2009 1:50:27 PM

i'd take them here soon.

3/25/2009 1:53:27 PM

If it can get back up above 805 (and in positive territory for the day) that would be confidence inspiring. If it can't hold and we start to move down, next stop 770.

3/25/2009 2:04:59 PM

no one wants to hold long for tomorrow. think about it. we have the unemployment report and the GDP report. its just not going to happen.

no one buy FAS for anything more than a late afternoon swing for after open tomorrow.

and Fail Boat i think you're in a good position. if you're up fo rthe year so far then hold on to you rputs. if you're behind then aim a little bit lower and maybe sell them at the bell today and reduce yoru risk.

3/25/2009 2:09:58 PM

still scared to do anything - haven't bought a stock in weeks lol

3/25/2009 2:31:11 PM

Just looking at where the S&P is sitting, FAS, and my BBY puts, it looks like it might be failing to hold at support and is now going to use the line as resistance. My puts went to 2.35, and came down to 2.15-2.20 while FAS pushed back to 6. They puts are back trading at 2.30 again with FAS struggling to keep at 6.

I'd sit tight or take a position and set your stop fairly tight to 5.75-5.80 or so.


Bobby probably won't like this

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/03/25/cisco-bad-omens-in-jabils-grim-guidance/

but looking at that and seeing that CSCO seems to keep bumping into resistance at 17 has me thinking about buying up some May 16 puts.

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 2:34 PM. Reason : .]

3/25/2009 2:33:35 PM

there goes the market - exactly why i'm scared - no idea which way it'll go

3/25/2009 2:41:15 PM

picked up 120 shares of SRS at $48.50 yesterday, I flipped out and sold it all at $54 when it ran up at the end of the day cause it was the first time I've seen a stock go up after I bought it in a long time, now it's at $61 and I'm kicking myself.

3/25/2009 2:46:31 PM

today's fall was pretty obvious the only thing that was holding it back was the minor news we received earlier, but by noon the direction was clear. i should have gone with my skf call. would have saved some losses on C and made some cash on the SKF/FAZ mix.

^^i close to what he is saying about FAS, but i'd stick with the timed pick up for those who are interested. 3:30 pick it up and then dump it in the AM.

3/25/2009 2:50:05 PM

Quote :

"picked up 120 shares of SRS at $48.50 yesterday, I flipped out and sold it all at $54 when it ran up at the end of the day cause it was the first time I've seen a stock go up after I bought it in a long time, now it's at $61 and I'm kicking myself."

Dunno if you saw my comment

Quote :

"Gonna go about 5k into some SRS calls tomorrow."

I was busy yesterday and didn't actually get to execute this. I'd be up 50% on this position right now if I would have taken it.

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 3:01 PM. Reason : ok, I admit, I was busy looking for my sack...the pain inflicted on me by my FAZ play has me gun shy]

3/25/2009 2:55:51 PM

^that was a good call and my long call i had initially made was off base.

3/25/2009 2:59:32 PM

I went ahead and sold the BBY puts I bought at 1.65 for 2.40, 45% gain.

BBY PZ BOT to Open 5 Limit $1.65 Executed $1.65
BBY PZ SLD to Close 5 Limit $2.40 Executed $2.40

Looking to pick them back up near the close today as we rally back towards 800/805.


1000 shares of FAS at 5.65. Stop placed at 5.50


[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 3:09 PM. Reason : .]

3/25/2009 3:04:18 PM

i'd say thats a safe bet this time of day.

3/25/2009 3:18:18 PM

my 5.50 FAS didn't go through lol - geez

3/25/2009 3:18:36 PM

Out at 5.80.

We got a big volume bar to push it up but then a much shorter bar after that so there isn't a ton of momentum there. I'll be happy with that easy $150.

Wtf. I changed it from a 5 minute to 15 minute chart and back and now I see different volume bars. God damnit. (this is scottrade, btw).

Man that is frustrating as hell. Dunno what was up with my scottrade charts. Now it is showing bigger volume bars. Could have booked an additional $200 on that one.



[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 3:24 PM. Reason : .]

3/25/2009 3:19:47 PM

i'll take the other side of that -- in at 5.78

3/25/2009 3:29:16 PM

sigh

Nothing like seeing the "left on the table" ticker going up up up thanks to a fucking chart reading issue.

It's definitely been 2 steps forward 1.5 back. Progress is progress though.

3/25/2009 3:31:23 PM

i'm pissed i was 1 penny off from a 15 minutes 15% gain haha

3/25/2009 3:32:33 PM

^^well what you need to realize is shorts were going to have to cover at around 3:30, which is why i chose that time frame. no one is going to want to hold over night because no one knows what the 8:30 report has to offer.

3/25/2009 3:32:39 PM

Quote :

"What do you guys think of BAC at $7.64? Want to get in for the long haul, but I know it got as low as $3.30 earlier in the month. Fuck I should have bought when I saw it at $4.25."

I got into BAC at $6.80 a month or two ago. Held onto it since then and watched it drop, then come back up again. As of right now I am up 8%.

I got into C at 1.83. It went down for a day or two after that, then it's been nothing but up. I'm up 50% as of right now; a day or two ago I was up 105% but then it came back down. Hopefully it will go up again soon. Unfortunately I could only afford 120 shares when I got it at $1.83.

3/25/2009 3:49:33 PM

Re-enterred my BBY April 32.50 play at 10 contracts @ 1.95 with a GTC stop set at 1.80.

They already ticked up to 2

3/25/2009 3:52:20 PM

fuckin a on FAS - fuckin a

3/25/2009 3:57:47 PM

Indeed man. I would have probably cracked open the good wine (you know, the $9 dollar bottle) had I turned that trade into $1000 in 50 minutes.

Looking at the chart though, I would probably would have bailed in the 6.20 range anyway.

3/25/2009 3:59:44 PM

i had 3500 shares at 5.50 - doh

3/25/2009 4:01:03 PM

Why do you all talk about FAS so frequently?

(Sorry, I'm new to this and trying to learn the system)

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 4:02 PM. Reason : df]

3/25/2009 4:02:35 PM

^ ^
Do you look at the charts and stuff or is it a pure gamble play?

^ If you're new and want to learn from us (heaven forbid) then go back and read the thread.

FAS is a financial ETF that is leveraged 3X with the Russell 1000 financial services index (http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXAMEX:RIFIN.X). So if the RIFIN moves 5%, FAS will move 15%. It's high risk high reward.

For instance, I jumped in at 5.65 and had I not read my charts wrong I very likely would have rode it at least to 6.25 (10%) or higher (up to 17%) in about an hour. When you compare this to a historical yearly average of about 7.5% you start to get the picture with these firecrackers.

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 4:06 PM. Reason : .]

3/25/2009 4:03:03 PM

volatility my friend. 30% swing today alone.

i do 25% charts, 75% gut. i'm way up for the year

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 4:03 PM. Reason : ]

3/25/2009 4:03:03 PM

bous man i told you to hold until EOD or sell at open tomorrow.


hershculez he talks about FAS (aka the widow maker) because it is 3x leveraged. meaning that it performs at 3x the rate of an aggregate of financial stocks. This can give huge gains or huge losses.

recently i've stayed away from it, but i was doing my best when i was in it.

3/25/2009 4:07:09 PM

If I am thinking long term is FAS a bad idea?

3/25/2009 4:08:33 PM

I sold some calls on FAS right before the bell with the hope that it will be down tomorrow.

I also sold some puts on T at 25 since all of mine was called away at the same price this month.

3/25/2009 4:09:46 PM

^^ See my reply to sharkwing on the previous page

^ I sold earlier in the week on the 7.50s for 1.05, I started to buy em back at .70 but was too busy trading on FAS itself to get around to it.

[Edited on March 25, 2009 at 4:12 PM. Reason : .]

3/25/2009 4:11:03 PM

^ Nice. I went with the 7.50s at 1.05 as well.

3/25/2009 4:18:50 PM

Quote :

"If I am thinking long term is FAS a bad idea?"

yes, very bad. I held $3300 in FAZ and $3300 in FAS for just a few days over this last weekend (due to 3 day rule, wanted to sell my FAZ but I couldn't so I had to hedge by purchasing FAS). Sold both of them first thing Tuesday morning and somehow managed to lose about $600 which was more than what I had made off FAZ before I hedged.

I'd have to calculate it out to find out exactly how that money disappeared, but I think it was due in part to the decay from all the volitility and also the fact that FAZ was being way oversold so it was off more than what it should've been worth in regards to the RIFIN which it tracks.

3/25/2009 6:35:35 PM

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123802456807742287.html

Calculated Risk has been talking about the coming CRE bust for over a month now and this is why I am looking to get long SRS during this pullback.

3/25/2009 11:13:00 PM

The average bear market rally is about 40 days but most don't have the velocity this one has.

I think we fizzle out at 7,900 and make a fell swoop to 6,800 before the end of April.

The earnings suck and there is no positive outlook in inflating debt

3/25/2009 11:14:02 PM

I will never understand why people use technical analysis.

3/26/2009 7:18:18 AM

Based on the premarket, it looks like my Best Buy play is going to reveal what I already knew, that Im not a stock analyst.

3/26/2009 8:23:55 AM

Have you looked into hhgregg at all? They just opened two new stores. CC closing should give them the gap they need to become a larger player in the electronics market.

3/26/2009 8:45:42 AM

It was mostly a speculative play, not a long term investment. But my logic was there is no way BBY can't feel the pain of the American consumer pulling back. Especially when you consider Wal Mart and Target getting into the higher margin electronics game, plus the continued rise of online retailers plus HHGregg coming into the fold. At the current premarket price of nearly $37, Best Buy is only down about 17% from this time a year ago (or about 20% from its 52 wk high) while the S&P is down 40%. I just can't fathom with all the layoffs and huge pullback in spending that they are continuing to do so well.

Nonetheless, I'm contemplating "doubling down" once the market opens and this earnings pop plays out by getting short and hoping for some profit taking over the coming days/week.

3/26/2009 8:51:01 AM

Un fucking believable. I try to pull the trigger on 200 shares short of BBY at 37.75 and I get this message

This security is not available to sell short for today.

Are you kidding? What kind of free market is this?

3/26/2009 9:33:49 AM

it probably means their are no shares to borrow. meaning that a lot of others are going short on it and the limit has been met, especially the limit of shares available to your broker to borrow. that is what it means.

3/26/2009 9:37:00 AM

Hmm, never thought too much about short selling but that makes sense for sure. I went ahead and (paid too much) for some April 35 puts instead. BBY up 14% at the moment, a mere 10% down YoY and 14% from their 52 week high.

3/26/2009 9:42:35 AM

set em up

3/26/2009 10:22:10 AM