with our 401k revamp, im saying fuck it and dumping mine all into time target managed funds

1/3/2008 11:33:42 AM

That's what I did with my roth this year. I just bought a bunch of VFIFX. Last year we didn't have time managed funds in our 401K. We had aggressive, moderate, and conservative life strategy funds but the most aggressive fund still had too much bond exposure for my taste.

1/3/2008 11:37:47 AM

Sweet. It's about time this whole investing in individual stock thing started to go my way.

WellCare Health Plans Inc (WCG) 46.31 up +4.32 +10.29%

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080103/wellcare_ahead_of_the_bell.html?.v=1

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM. Reason : link]

1/3/2008 11:40:45 AM

yeah we used to have a selection of open market funds, ~25 to chose from...

now it's the ml managed, and that is just irritating.

so instead of trying to do any type of research at all, if they're limiting me, im coppin' out and doing the time managed.

ah well... gone are the days of tracking on yahoo.

of course, tracking 401k funds daily is kinda absurd in the big picture, but it was fun. I mean, I hadn't readjusted anything in months


and fwiw, the plan is right now to dump to a higher than actual retirement date fund, the allotment looks sexier right now for 2055 as opposed to what im shooting for, higher international exposure, more large cap... as would be expected.

push it to a more realistic date down the road, but right now... what the hell volatility is my friend (ideally)

1/3/2008 11:43:57 AM

I completely agree. That's why I bought the Vanguard 2050 Fund even though I plan on retiring long before then.

1/3/2008 11:45:33 AM

just officially monetized my all TRA. playing with house money now.


here's my top 15 holdings by value:

QQQQ
MA
NDAQ
VMW
AAPL
RIMM
IBN
JRJC
SNCR
NOK
GENZ
CSCO
CHL
GILD
ENER

(#'s 12-15 tied with RIO, TRA, and FLS give or take 2%)


i have other stocks in small amounts not worth listing. most of those others are fully monetized and i don't pay them any mind, and some are probably dead weight which i need to clean up.


[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 12:36 PM. Reason : top 15]

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 12:44 PM. Reason : values]

1/3/2008 12:31:30 PM

Quote :

"Whats Lifecycle Retirement Package? It looks like you need more international exposure. At your age you can not afford to not invest heavily in the stock market. Here's my current allocation. 24.99% TOTAL STOCK MKT IDX 24.96% LARGE-CAP VALUE IDX 20.01% LARGE-CAP GROWTH IDX 20.00% INTL STOCK MKT IDX 10.04% SMALL/MID-CAP IDX I have some more small/mid and other riskier investments in my roth ira."

its another more 'guaranteed' small increase like a stable value except that their lifecycle package has been around +2-3% annually the past few years. its low risk but generally has a higher return than stable value.

i had money in our international (called 'non-US equity') area to the amount of about 15% last year and it was a negative gain on the 6 mos i was there so i just switched out of it. but maybe ill think about switching back into it.

the percentages that i just listed are what i switched to about a month ago when the markets seemed to be taking a dump, wanted to protect about half of my gains at least in some stable things at the end of the year and re-evaluate where im allocating my money at the beginning of 08 here. so input like yours is greatly appreciated.

also, large and small cap VALUE from this place were -2 to -4% last year. so ive just got money in small cap growth and large cap growth for my major equities at the moment.


if it looks like things are going to turn around soon im planning to dump more into large cap growth, small cap growth, and non-US. we'll see, like i said, im a somewhat informed n00b

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 12:47 PM. Reason : ]

1/3/2008 12:39:50 PM

Total Return 2007: 13.21%

1/3/2008 12:40:26 PM

"its another more 'guaranteed' small increase like a stable value except that their lifecycle package has been around +2-3% annually the past few years. its low risk but generally has a higher return than stable value."

Holy crap. 2-3% is pretty bad. What do they invest in, cds? You could probably be just as safe in bonds and get a better return.

"i had money in our international (called 'non-US equity') area to the amount of about 15% last year and it was a negative gain on the 6 mos i was there so i just switched out of it. but maybe ill think about switching back into it."

15% is a good amount. You can't make decisions based on 6 months, especially if the entire sector was down for 6 months (as opposed to just your fund) Especially with the dollar going down you'll want to pick those non-US equities back up.

"the percentages that i just listed are what i switched to about a month ago when the markets seemed to be taking a dump, wanted to protect about half of my gains at least in some stable things at the end of the year and re-evaluate where im allocating my money at the beginning of 08 here. so input like yours is greatly appreciated."

It's a bad idea to try to time the market. If you try to do this you could potentially miss a big runup which could cost you a ton.

"also, large and small cap VALUE from this place were -2 to -4% last year. so ive just got money in small cap growth and large cap growth for my major equities at the moment."

Once again, you can't base decisions just on a small time span. You should be diversified. Don't look at values going down and decide to dump them all, if anything you'll want to pick up some more now that they are cheap. They'll rebound eventually and more than likely you'll miss it.

1/3/2008 1:05:09 PM

word. what about something like this then:

s&p 500 index: 20%
international stock: 20%
bonds: 20%
large cap growth: 20%
small cap growth: 20%

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 1:20 PM. Reason : ]

1/3/2008 1:20:20 PM

^ This is one of the better writeups i've read about 401k allocation strategy:

http://hingefire.blogspot.com/2007/02/portfolio-diversification-401k.html

1/3/2008 1:32:43 PM

^^

I had a similar allocation a last year, but I eventually decided to ditch all my bonds. I'd still get some more value funds although the stock market index probably exposes you to some.

1/3/2008 1:40:53 PM

^

I think some people feel more pain than I do when losing money but its hard for me to imagine why a buy and hold portfolio for someone under 35 would have any investment grade bonds. If you are looking at a 30-40 year horizon then you might as well just pile on the volatility. Sure, times like the end of 2007 and whats likely to be the beginning of 2008 will be rough but you'll make it up in spades over the long haul.

If you are trying to time the market thats a different matter of course.

1/3/2008 1:52:39 PM

34.4% Total gain from personal investing in 2007. This DOES include ESPP Sales (not unsold stock or unsold options)

The 8%+ gain from investment in my 401k is not averaged in to this, as I have no control over that money.

I invested in the following stocks:
AAPL
CSCO
DODFX
EEM
GOLDX
JAOSX
FXI

Got really lucky by selling most of it back before the end of the year.



[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 2:22 PM. Reason : .]

1/3/2008 2:18:26 PM

What would have been your percentage if you had kept those till the end and not bought a house? Damn you got lucky

1/3/2008 2:33:23 PM

No kidding ... had I not sold for the downpayment, shit woulda been average at best.

oh well ... lucky me

1/3/2008 2:52:37 PM

Holy crap. VMW has some great option premiums.

I just sold covered calls in Feb at 90 for $6.30.

1/3/2008 3:47:04 PM

I’ve been watching the Lounge stock market threads for several months now. I am very impressed at the level of knowledge on the board. I am particularly interested in those that had double digit returns this year.

What sort stock picking techniques do you use to pick winners? Do you use certain formulas? Do you subscribe to the Motley Fool?

Basically what do you do to be so successful in the stock market?

1/3/2008 4:14:30 PM

I go by personal knowledge and research. Listening to external sources and people's opinions get you nowhere.

Become knowledgeable about what you are doing and you will reap the benefits.

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 4:17 PM. Reason : /]

1/3/2008 4:17:36 PM

watching Fast Money on CNBC is a good idea. its on weekdays at 5 & 8.

i also read marketwatch.com and motley fool.


long story short: you want to be diversified, and you want to start with beer money (money you can afford to lose)




[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 4:38 PM. Reason : rrwetwetwfsdfgfddsd]

1/3/2008 4:33:56 PM

I am anti tv. I mean how valuable can this info be if it is brodcasted nationally. The only good stock tip is the illegal kind. By the time the public knows about stuff it is too late

1/3/2008 4:36:00 PM

Yeah, I don't watch tv either. I do read fool and check out press releases from time to time. Also, I look at a specific stock's #s specifically PE and of course above all be diversified. For mutual funds I check out the manager and his track record. Don't base your choices solely on past performance.

1/3/2008 4:54:31 PM

past performance means 0000000

1/3/2008 5:10:48 PM

What's up with the pseudonym?

1/3/2008 5:22:23 PM

When you guys say "research" or "read press releases" what do you mean? What kind of information are you looking for?

Finally ssjamind, what is the benefit of Fast Money? What kind of information is that show good for?

1/3/2008 5:31:47 PM

Read 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street'.... it talks about how reliable the supposed 'experts' are and how much they have to gain by recommending stocks to you

And I personally have found that the best place by far for info is The Motley Fool, but if you buy based on what an 'expert', a website, or a friend tells you, you could be in for a world of hurt



[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 5:33 PM. Reason : ]

1/3/2008 5:32:08 PM

Well you can do research to find out what stocks have a low pe, although, pe alone is no reason to buy a stock. Morningstar or any other financial site can give you a stocks pe along with a wide range of other information.

You can read various news sites to find press releases like the one I posted above. The stock was already up about 5% once the release came out, but it went up another 5% before end of day.

1/3/2008 5:39:56 PM

The Value Line Investment Survey and IBD. Wake County public libraries have subscriptions to both of these.

1/3/2008 5:43:56 PM

Quote :

"What's up with the pseudonym?"

currently on the laptop

1/3/2008 5:46:03 PM

I finally got off my ass and setup wireless. Tis nice.

1/3/2008 5:51:00 PM

its a panel of traders and ex-traders. they come on four at a time and discuss why stuff is happening and make recommendations. i like that they often disagree with each other and argue -- gives you different perspectives.

and i never "buy something because someone said so". TV and free internet resources are a good place to start familiarizing yourself with these things, but eventually you buy what makes sense to you.

you have to figure out your risk and timing capacity, and figure out what trading/investing discipline works for you. in the past when i spotted the RNAI's and JRJC's of the world, i found them showing up a bunch of times on nasdaq.com's unusual volume list. those were the days when i had a time to monitor all that. for the accounts i manage for my parents, i buy almost only ETFs. i've found its easier to time trends than it is individual company's stocks. for example i bought UNG near its bottom and sold UCR near its top... et cetera, et cetera

1/3/2008 5:55:40 PM

it is the best!!!!

idk what id do without it.

1/3/2008 5:55:57 PM

Quote :

"Value Line Investment Survey "

definitely...i used to do this way back in the 2006 thread.

i would buy a stock when it went from a 2 to a 1, and sell it as soon as it dropped to a 2. it worked well.

1/3/2008 5:56:44 PM

ETFs are definitely the way to go. People sink wayyyyy too much money into mutual funds who piss away money on unnecessary research and other fees that kill your bottom line

1/3/2008 5:57:34 PM

I like some of the target retirement funds in addition to the spiders.

1/3/2008 6:06:21 PM

Fast Money is a great place to learn about the market as a market, as a volatile trading system.

Some of the panalist are involved in commodities, some are/were big money managers.

What you get is alot of the techniques that they use/recommend, and an explanation of why.

I learn 4 times more from Fast Money than I would by listening to cramer.

Also, I read Marketwatch.com every day to get a feel of the general market.

Lastly, I do not generally invest in any stocks in industries I know NOTHING about. Thats why I stick to computer/web tech in general, and dont do hardly any investing in pharma.

A great way to start is to focus on a particular industry that you really know alot about, and learn about those companies/markets. Lastly, use PE as a measuring stick for growth stocks, and dont get stuck into believing that one particular stock is immune to general market conditions.

When the market goes south, great companies go with it. IF at that time your money is free, then you are in great shape to take part in a SUPER buying opportunity. However, if you have been greedy, and didnt take some profits, you will be stuck with your money tied up in a falling market. And it gets even harder to pull the "take a loss, sell on the down" trigger.

1/3/2008 6:07:31 PM

How do you know when to take some profits?

1/3/2008 6:08:59 PM

Are these returns you people are posting from stuff you actually sold or just how much you are up?

1/3/2008 7:41:58 PM

What is "IBD"?

1/3/2008 7:44:17 PM

Investor's Business Daily

1/3/2008 7:47:44 PM

These returns for me were sold positions only, and my current positions are AAPL and CSCO (bought some on Monday at 27.10 and have some via ESPP).

Taking Profits ... Very hard call.

If you have made 40% on a stock in a short amount of time, probably smart to take some profit, or cover your profits with options(I dont actually do options personally, but the people on Fast Money do alot, but there situation is different from mine).

I used to use a rule, where I used percentage/number of months to determine when I am just being greedy.

At the same time, you can use stop orders (frequently adjusted) to cover a rising stock.

I bought aapl at 120, and started using stop orders once it got over 160 to cover the 30% profit I had at that point, since I really thought it would continue to go up/believed in the company, and didnt want to sell.

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 7:52 PM. Reason : profits.]

1/3/2008 7:48:19 PM

stop orders?

1/3/2008 8:14:05 PM

an order to sell at a specific price.

1/3/2008 8:20:43 PM

The biggest thing with taking profits is to have a plan for selling before you buy. If you don't have a plan, you're probably going to waffle. If you waffle, you're going to lose money.

I sell if:

- a position falls to -8% overall
- a position falls -8% in a month (this is flexible--I may sell before the month is up or ride through a dip)
- a stock falls off my screen

1/3/2008 8:23:32 PM

incase anyone is interested, prlly just David,

here's the allocation profile for the 2055 that im pushing all my 401k and future contributions into.

stable value - 1.3%
core bond - 1.7%
reits - 4%
large cap equity - 30.7%
international equity - 37.2%
mid cap equity - 11.2%
small cap equity - 14%


oddly enough, its pretty close (minus the reits, stable value and bonds) to what I had before, just spread over multiple funds.

what say yous

1/3/2008 8:24:41 PM

whats up with all the uneven %s?

^^ What happens if it is going up?

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 8:38 PM. Reason : ]

1/3/2008 8:35:49 PM

i dont know. im assuming it's rounded somewhere since it's 100.1%

[Edited on January 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM. Reason : e]

1/3/2008 8:47:25 PM

Oh, I missed the part where you said that was the 2055 allocation. I thought it was your previous allocation or something. I haven't changed mine yet now that fidelity took over. I have a ton more options now though. Real mutual funds now. Any suggestions?

LIFE CYCLE
Blended Fund Investments*
TIER I - LIFE CYCLE
TARGET DATE - 2050 %
TARGET DATE - 2045 %
TARGET DATE - 2040 %
TARGET DATE - 2035 %
TARGET DATE - 2030 %
TARGET DATE - 2025 %
TARGET DATE - 2020 %
TARGET DATE - 2015 %
TARGET DATE - 2010 %
TARGET DATE - 2005 %
CONSERVATIVE LS %
MODERATE LS %
AGGRESSIVE LS %
INCOME PLUS LS %
CORE FUNDS
Stock Investments
DOMESTIC STOCKS
TOTAL STOCK MKT IDX 25 % %
INTERNATIONAL STOCKS
INTL STOCK MKT IDX 20 % %
REAL ESTATE
REIT IDX %
INTL REAL ESTATE IDX %
Bond Investments
BONDS
STABLE VALUE %
INFL PROTECTED BOND %
TOTAL BOND MARKET %
EXPANDED CHOICE FUNDS
Stock Investments
INTERNATIONAL STOCKS
EUROPEAN STOCK IDX %
PACIFIC STOCK IDX %
LARGE-CAP STOCKS
LARGE COMPANY IDX %
LARGE-CAP VALUE IDX 25 % %
LARGE-CAP GROWTH IDX 20 % %
MID-CAP STOCKS
SMALL/MID-CAP IDX 10 % %
SMALL-CAP STOCKS
SMALL-CAP VALUE IDX %
SMALL-CAP GROWTH IDX %
INDIVIDUAL EQUITIES
IBM STOCK %
Bond Investments
BONDS
LONG-TERM CORP BOND %
HI YLD EMG MKT BOND %
MUTUAL FUND WINDOW
Stock Investments
LARGE BLEND
FID EXP & MULTINATL %
PIMCO STKPLUS INST %
VANG PRIMECAP CORE %
FID FIDELITY %
FID GROWTH & INCOME %
FID DISCIPLINED EQTY %
FID STOCK SELECTOR %
FID DIVIDEND GROWTH %
FID GROWTH DISCOVERY %
FID MEGA CAP STOCK %
FID FIFTY %
VANG GRTH & INC ADM %
VANG LG CAP IDX SIG %
VANG TOT STK MKT SIG %
LARGE GROWTH
FID TREND %
FID CONTRAFUND %
FID GROWTH COMPANY %
FID INDEPENDENCE %
FID OTC PORTFOLIO %
FID CAP APPRECIATION %
FID BLUE CHIP GROWTH %
FID LARGE CAP STOCK %
VANG GRTH EQUITY %
VANG MORGAN GRTH ADM %
VANG FTSE SOCIAL IDX %
AF GROWTH OF AMER R5 %
AF AMCAP R5 %
AF NEW ECONOMY R5 %
VANG GROWTH IDX SIG %
LARGE VALUE
FID EQUITY INCOME %
FID EQUITY INCOME II %
DODGE & COX STOCK %
VANG DIV GROWTH INV %
VANG EQUITY INC ADM %
VANG WINDSOR II ADM %
VANG CAPITAL VAL INV %
VANG WINDSOR ADM %
VANG US VALUE %
AF WASH MUTUAL R5 %
AF INVEST CO AMER R5 %
AF AMERICAN MUTAL R5 %
AF FUNDAMNTL INVS R5 %
VANG VALUE IDX SIG %
MID-CAP BLEND
FID LEVERAGED CO STK %
FID VALUE STRATEGIES %
VANG STRATEGIC EQ %
VANG EXT MKT IDX SIG %
VANG MIDCAP IDX INST %
MID-CAP GROWTH
FID MID CAP STOCK %
VANG MIDCAP GRTH INV %
MID-CAP VALUE
VANG SELECTED VALUE %
FID VALUE %
SMALL BLEND
FID SMALL CAP STOCK %
VANG SM CAP IDX SIG %
SMALL GROWTH
FID SM CAP INDEPEND %
FID SM CAP RTMT %
VANG EXPLORER ADM %
VANG SM GRTH IDX INV %
AF SMALLCAP WORLD R5 %
SMALL VALUE
VANG SM VAL IDX INST %
SPECIALTY-NAT RESOURCE
PIM COM REAL RET I %
SPECIALTY-REAL ESTATE
FID REAL ESTATE INVS %
FID REAL ESTATE INC %
FID INTL REAL ESTATE %
PIM RE REAL RET INST %
DIVERSIFIED EMERG MKTS
AF NEW WORLD R5 %
DIVERSIFIED PAC/ASIA
FID PACIFIC BASIN %
EUROPE STOCK
FID EUROPE %
FID EUROPE CAP APP %
FOREIGN LARGE BLEND
FID OVERSEAS %
FID INTL DISCOVERY %
FID CANADA %
VANG INTL VALUE INV %
VANG INTL GROWTH ADM %
VANG DEVEL MKTS IDX %
VANG TOTAL INTL STK %
AF EUROPAC GROWTH R5 %
FOREIGN LARGE GROWTH
FID DIVERSIFIED INTL %
FID AGGRESSIVE INTL %
FOREIGN LARGE VALUE
DODGE & COX INTL STK %
FOREIGN SM/MID GROWTH
FID INTL SMALL CAP %
VANG INTL EXPLORER %
JAPAN STOCK
FID JAPAN %
FID JAPAN SMALLER CO %
LATIN AMERICA STOCK
FID LATIN AMERICA %
PACIFIC/ASIA EX-JAPAN
FID SOUTHEAST ASIA %
FID CHINA REGION %
WORLD STOCK
FID WORLDWIDE %
VANG GLOBAL EQUITY %
AF CAP WORLD G&I R5 %
AF NEW PERSPECT R5 %
Blended Fund Investments*
LARGE BLEND
VANG LIFEST GROWTH %
CONSERVATIVE ALLOC.
FID ASSET MGR 20% %
VANG LIFEST CON GRTH %
VANG LIFEST INCOME %
VANG WELLESLEY ADM %
CONVERTIBLES
PIM CONVERTIBLE INST %
VANG CONVERTIBLE SEC %
FID CONVERTIBLE SEC %
MODERATE ALLOCATION
PIM ALL ASSET INST %
FID PURITAN %
FID BALANCED %
FID ASSET MGR 50% %
FID ASSET MGR 70% %
FID STRAT DIV & INC %
DODGE & COX BALANCED %
VANG LIFEST MOD GRTH %
VANG ASSET ALLOC ADM %
VANG STAR %
VANG WELLINGTON ADM %
AF BALANCED R5 %
PIM ALL A ALL AUTH I %
VANG BAL IDX SIG %
WORLD ALLOCATION
FID GLOBAL BALANCED %
LARGE BLEND
FID FREEDOM 2040 %
LARGE GROWTH
FID ASSET MGR 85% %
TARGET-DATE 2000-2014
FID FREEDOM INCOME %
FID FREEDOM 2000 %
FID FREEDOM 2010 %
FID FREEDOM 2005 %
VANG TARGET RET 2010 %
VANG TARGET RET INC %
VANG TARGET RET 2005 %
TARGET-DATE 2015-2029
FID FREEDOM 2020 %
FID FREEDOM 2015 %
FID FREEDOM 2025 %
VANG TARGET RET 2020 %
VANG TARGET RET 2015 %
VANG TARGET RET 2025 %
TARGET-DATE 2030+
FID FREEDOM 2045 %
FID FREEDOM 2050 %
FID FREEDOM 2030 %
FID FREEDOM 2035 %
VANG TARGET RET 2030 %
VANG TARGET RET 2040 %
VANG TARGET RET 2050 %
VANG TARGET RET 2035 %
VANG TARGET RET 2045 %
Bond Investments
BANK LOAN
FID FLOAT RT HI INC %
EMERGING MARKETS BOND
FID NEW MARKETS INC %
PIM EM MKTS BD INST %
HIGH YIELD BOND
FID CAPITAL & INCOME %
FID HIGH INCOME %
PIM HIGH YIELD INST %
VANG HI YLD CORP ADM %
INTERMEDIATE GOV'T
PIM MORTGAGE BCKD IS %
PIM GNMA INST %
FID GINNIE MAE %
FID MORTGAGE SEC %
FID INTM GOVT INCOME %
FID SPTN GOVT INCOME %
FID INFLAT PROT BOND %
VANG GNMA ADM %
VANG INTM TREAS ADM %
VANG INFL PROT ADM %
INTERMEDIATE-TERM BOND
PIM TOTAL RT INST %
PIM TOT RT III INST %
PIM MOD DURAT INST %
PIM INVT GRD BD INST %
FIDELITY INVST GR BD %
FID INTERMED BOND %
FIDELITY GOVT INCOME %
FID SPTN INVT-GRD BD %
FID TOTAL BOND %
DODGE & COX INCOME %
VANG INTM INV GR ADM %
VANG INTM BD IDX SIG %
LONG GOVERNMENT
PIM LT US GOVT INST %
PIM REAL RETURN INST %
PIM RL RT ASSET INST %
VANG LT TREASURY ADM %
LONG-TERM BOND
VANG LT INV GR ADM %
VANG LT BOND IDX INV %
MULTISECTOR BOND
PIM DIVERS INC INST %
FID STRATEGIC INCOME %
SHORT GOVERNMENT
FID INST SH INT GOVT %
VANG ST TREASURY ADM %
VANG ST FEDERAL ADM %
SHORT-TERM BOND
PIM LOW DUR INST %
PIM LOW DUR III INST %
FID SHORT TERM BOND %
VANG ST INV GR ADM %
VANG ST BOND IDX SIG %
WORLD BOND
PIM GLOB BD UNHG I %
PIM FOR BD US$HG I %
PIM GLOB BD US$HG I %
PIM FOR BD UNHG INST %
AF CAP WORLD BOND R5 %

1/3/2008 8:48:53 PM

I'm surprised your fund has so much international exposure.

1/3/2008 8:52:45 PM

Quote :

"^^ What happens if it is going up?"

You don't sell.

By my rules, the only time you should sell a rising stock is if something better comes along; i.e., something shows up on your screen that's better than what you own.

1/3/2008 8:59:16 PM