BTW. A lesson in history. I am attaching a graph of the total U.S. petrol consumption. I want you to observe what happened in the 1970s. Observe just how much petrol we were using, then I want you to see how demand was destroyed. Then observe how many years it took to have the U.S. consuming the same amount of petrol again. I believe we are going to see the exact same thing happen. Except this time, over 10 years, I believe the demand for oil will be destroyed much more. We are going to feed new technologies in transportation that use very little gas, and will diversify the source to our power grids (read nuclear)



[Edited on February 12, 2008 at 2:05 PM. Reason : .]

2/12/2008 2:03:12 PM

Continued investing in finding alternative fuel sources is the only way to drive down the cost of oil/gas.

I don't care about the environmental angle, I am far more concerned about dropping costs for consumers. And if it hurts a piece of shit despot like Chavez in the process, then all the better.

2/12/2008 2:11:35 PM

I agree in part. Pricing in the short term will destroy demand. Motor pool efficiency increases will destroy demand in the 3-5 year time frame. The alternatives will begin to destroy demand in 5+ years.

There is a seminar in DC from April 7-8 being held by the EIA (branch of the DoE). For those interested in Energy, the conference is free, and has lots of interesting sessions. If you want a link, send me a PM.

2/12/2008 2:18:28 PM

Quote :

"I don't care about the environmental angle"

2/12/2008 3:35:39 PM

they are two seperate issues. But lets please not get into that crap on this thread.

2/12/2008 3:42:32 PM

Quote :

"BTW. A lesson in history. I am attaching a graph of the total U.S. petrol consumption. I want you to observe what happened in the 1970s. Observe just how much petrol we were using, then I want you to see how demand was destroyed. Then observe how many years it took to have the U.S. consuming the same amount of petrol again. I believe we are going to see the exact same thing happen. Except this time, over 10 years, I believe the demand for oil will be destroyed much more. We are going to feed new technologies in transportation that use very little gas, and will diversify the source to our power grids (read nuclear)"

Okay, firstly, I'm not countering anything you said, but there are a few more points that need to be made.

Look at the "hair" on the consumption graph. I would estimate that to be about winter and summer peaks at the beginning of the graph. That seasonal usage of gas is no way for commuting, and probably for electricity peaking/load following and heating. That kind of energy is in a much more competitive market. One kind of power plant can almost always be shut down in lieu of another (cept maybe coal), at higher costs. And heating can be done from a variety of sources, and over a year-ish time scale, you can install some unit that burns something else, or heck, use resistance heating.

Those peaks are strong evidence that gas was, at that time, used in much more variable markets, and in many places where it could be relatively quickly replaced. Compare to after the early 80s where there exists almost a perfectly direct proportionality between transportation (including moving goods) and oil consumption. This is very hard to replace, and while I think it will happen, there really is no president for it.

2/12/2008 6:46:59 PM

Its hard to find hard data (for me anyway) to correlate the percentage of use of petrol pre-embargo to really make an argument. If you can find some, please post it.

2/12/2008 11:10:14 PM

Looks like Hugo's started with Exxon Mobil.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080212/venezuela_us_oil.html?.v=9

Quote :

"Venezuela's state oil company said Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. in response to the U.S. oil company's drive to use the courts to seize billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets. Exxon Mobil is locked in a dispute over the nationalization of its oil ventures in Venezuela that has led President Hugo Chavez to threaten to cut off all Venezuelan oil supplies to the United States. Venezuela is the United States' fourth largest oil supplier... Some analysts say it would make little sense for Chavez to follow through on his broader threats to cut off oil sales to the U.S. because Venezuela owns refineries in the United States that are customized to handle the South American country's heavy crude."

2/13/2008 12:04:55 AM

personally i cant stand the naggers that whine about NIMBY type shit all the time

2/13/2008 12:53:53 AM

^^^ I would have this if i could find any EIA data going back before 1980 or so

2/13/2008 12:22:45 PM

I say let Chavez whine and bitch if he wants acting like a 5yr old.

Either he'll realize how much money he is losing by not exporting his oil to the US

OR

He will end up selling his shitty oil to some middle man who when slyly wholesale it to american companies. of course for an overhead cost. Kind of like the same reason those facebook groups that call for the boycotting of all ExXon or BP stations to reduce gas prices would never work.

2/13/2008 1:04:15 PM

mrfrog, are you going to the EIA conference?

2/13/2008 1:19:43 PM

no...

2/14/2008 7:19:30 AM