2

6/14/2009 8:54:59 PM

twits (tweets? i've seen different spellings) from iran:

Quote :

"My Father has a truck load of ballot boxes that were to be burned in the back of his truck. i eats some pills and wanna sleep and i scared that if they can find me ...i going...thx for your supports.... typing as fastest as I can in bth English&Farsi,Still we need outside help,I really don't want to be captured by Ansar Once again I thank everyone in the world. No matter if Ahmadi stays or not, I'm proud to have clasped such supportive hands. URGENT JUST IN, there r TANKS in front of the interior ministry of tehran in valiasr st. & fatemi CAREFUL I can't find my friends on streets. Rasht, glass splinters on the streets, riot police not hesitating to beat men, women and even kids From Enghelab Sq friend just call me, Police & unknown forces beating everybody for no apparent reason! Correction, no bus burned, but three cars. dawn is breaking. can hear prayers from mosques. cousin in tehran is traumatized by the club and baton beatings on tehran streets. eyewitness report of a girl beaten to death. IRG's helicopter flying low on yousefabadad Amirabad Gisha right now creating a devastating sound and making windows shake sources from Tehran: ppl are killed, ppl are in blood, tehran is hell. We witnessed police spraying pepper gas into the eyes of peaceful female protesters We are here in the dark, all kinds of rumors fly by; nothing is sure. IRIB TV warned people seriously about going to tomorrow's rally, mobile network might be down for tomorrow's rally. "

[Edited on June 14, 2009 at 9:09 PM. Reason : .]

6/14/2009 9:09:07 PM

more tweets

Quote :

"Hospitals around Tehran are surrounded by security forces who refuse to let those with injuries pass, humanity at its worst Friend: 17 y/o killed infront of me couldn't get to him in time guards beating us up went to hospital but he stopped moving"

http://www.youtube.com/v/KcHT8-ps64w

[Edited on June 14, 2009 at 10:11 PM. Reason : .]

6/14/2009 10:04:20 PM

you'd think the theocratic leaders who have the real power behind Iran would have told AJ to gtfo in fear that the puppet leader of Iraq would piss of the masses so much with his sham election that they would go into revolt.

6/14/2009 11:46:46 PM

i assume you mean iran.

also i've been reading from some analysts from iran that the real power isn't really with the theocrats these days anyway. the power is more with the military who are strongly behind ahmadinejad.

for instance one theory from Gordon Robison (http://www.mideastanalysis.com/1/post/2009/06/what-happened-in-iran.html):

Quote :

"Scenario One: Ahmedinejad and his supporters stole the election, plain and simple. . . .[snip] Scenario Two: There has been a coup. Ahmedinejad and the security services have taken over. The Supreme Leader has been preserved as a figurehead, but the structures of clerical rule have effectively been gutted and are being replaced by a National Security State. Reports that facebook, twitter, text messaging and foreign TV broadcasts have been blocked, that foreign journalists are being expelled and that large concrete roadblocks (the kind that require a crane to move) have appeared in front of the Interior Ministry all feed a sense that what we are now seeing was pre-planned. Underlying this is the theory that Ahmedinejad and the people around him represent a new generation of Iranian leadership. He and his colleagues were young revolutionaries in 1979. Now in their 50s they have built careers inside the Revolutionary Guard and the other security services. They may be committed to the Islamic Republic as a concept, but they are not part of its clerical aristocracy and are now moving to push the clerics into an essentially ceremonial role. This theory in particular seems to be gaining credibility rapidly among professional Iran-watchers outside of the country. Then again… Scenario Three: Ahmedinejad won. Really. At moments like this it is easy to forget that Tehran is not Iran. Foreign media tend to congregate in capitals and, in any case, the Iranian security services do not make it easy for foreign journalists to travel outside of Tehran. Please note I am not pushing this theory, only saying it merits consideration. This article from Saturday’s Guardian makes especially interesting reading. [snip] "

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:28 AM. Reason : .]

6/15/2009 12:03:34 AM

Scenario 2 has some issues, because from what I understand, Iran essentially has 2 militaries. The "normal" military and the Republican Guard who are generally loyal to the Clerics. A coup to push aside the cleric would require a fight with this force, wouldn't it?

And I would think Ahmedenijad and the Clerics are on the same side, considering how far right Ahmedinijad is.

6/15/2009 2:35:48 AM

I heard a brief report on the radio this morning. They didn't give details or specifics, they just said that the riots have fallen off significantly (today vs. yesterday).

I've been out of the news loop for about a month, so I've got some catching up to do.

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 7:35 AM. Reason : -]

6/15/2009 7:30:45 AM

this might have something to do with the ratcheting down of protests today (that plus violence from riot police)

Quote :

"State television quoted Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directing a high-level clerical panel, the Guardian Council, to look into charges by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has said he is the rightful winner of Friday's presidential election.The decision comes after Mousavi wrote a letter appealing to the Guardian Council and met Sunday with Khamenei, who holds almost limitless power over Iranian affairs. Such an election probe by the 12-member council is uncharted territory and it not immediately clear how it would proceed or how long it would take."

note how big of a change this is from the past few days. there was an iranian government official interviewed just yesterday who said that even questioning the result of the election was an offense worthy of arrest.

Quote :

"One close friend of mine worked as election official in Shiraz. He says they received 70 ballot boxes, in which 40 of them were with broken seals. The answer to the question of “why the seals are open?” was that the boxes move in the car during transit, so the seals came off. He says the votes in the 40 open boxes were all for Ahmadinejad and Mousavi was leading in the rest of the 30 boxes."

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 8:52 AM. Reason : .]

6/15/2009 8:52:00 AM

Quote :

"Grand Ayatollah Saanei accompanies today's anti Ahmadinejad rally"

6/15/2009 11:12:06 AM

much more here about today's gigantic marches:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/livetweeting-the-revolution.html

6/15/2009 11:50:12 AM

Daily Telegraph's reporting that Interior Ministry statistics have been leaked showing Ahmadenijad came in 3rd...

Can't verify the numbers.

This is getting really interesting.

6/15/2009 12:16:37 PM

this reminds me a little about benazir bhutto though. the masses rally around a figure, figure gets killed, back to status quo

6/15/2009 12:22:40 PM

Instead of killing Mousavi, I'm guessing that they will probably just throw him in jail for a few years for "inciting the masses" or something like that.

6/15/2009 12:29:02 PM

6/15/2009 12:33:34 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/14/AR2009061401757.html

Quote :

"The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election. ... Some might argue that the professed support for Ahmadinejad we found simply reflected fearful respondents' reluctance to provide honest answers to pollsters. Yet the integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions. For instance, nearly four in five Iranians -- including most Ahmadinejad supporters -- said they wanted to change the political system to give them the right to elect Iran's supreme leader, who is not currently subject to popular vote. Similarly, Iranians chose free elections and a free press as their most important priorities for their government, virtually tied with improving the national economy. These were hardly "politically correct" responses to voice publicly in a largely authoritarian society. "

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:35 PM. Reason : ]

6/15/2009 12:35:06 PM

Quote :

"That poll that Fred Hiatt ran this morning? Showing 2-1 Ahmadinejad support. It was taken three weeks before the vote, before the campaign took off, and it had one huge asterisk in it: The poll that appears in today's op-ed shows a 2 to 1 lead in the thinnest sense: 34 percent of those polled said they'd vote for Ahmadinejad, 14 percent for Mousavi. That leaves 52 percent unaccounted for. In all, 27 percent expressed no opinion in the election, and another 15 percent refused to answer the question at all. Six percent said they'd vote for none of the listed candidates; the rest for minor candidates. Troublingly, this enormously pertinent fact was left out of the op-ed. Who edited it? Why were its results distorted to buttress Ahmadinejad? What is Fred Hiatt up to?"

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:37 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:37 PM. Reason : oops]

6/15/2009 12:36:35 PM

I think the overall point was that it's not completely nuts for Ahmedinijad to possibly have legitimately won. I haven't seen really any good evidence either way though.

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:39 PM. Reason : ]

6/15/2009 12:38:37 PM

Perhaps. Devil's advocate, let's assume the calls of fraud are baseless. Even so, it can still be the impetus for a real revolution among Iran's youth. It could really turn out to be something, regardless.

I would imagine the mullahs are shitting bricks about now.

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:42 PM. Reason : *]

6/15/2009 12:41:34 PM

it's hard to prove illegitimacy. nate silver (at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com ) has sort of recanted earlier doubt about rigging saying that numbers do indeed look fishy now that he has gotten ahold of the provincial numbers. especially considering the large turnout combined with the support for the incumbent candidate (which usually isn't the case -- especially in kurdistan). also there have been leaks from the election ministry (or whatever it's called) of votes being directly tampered with.

there's also the whole business of mousavi being called saying that he had won and then for the totals to be totally changed in a matter of hours.

there's also the fact that the results were certified before they could have possibly all been counted (and before legally-decided time) especially considering the huge turnout.

i mean none of these things are smoking guns. and some may be fabricated. but there are just so many things that are suspicious, i find it hard to believe that ahmadinejad didn't alter the proper results of this election.

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 12:50 PM. Reason : clarification]

6/15/2009 12:44:00 PM

Reports coming out now that government miltias are firing on the crowd.

6/15/2009 12:46:02 PM

... that can't be good

6/15/2009 12:49:10 PM

This is getting the feeling of Tiannanmen Square...

6/15/2009 12:54:27 PM

^Yeah, I was having that same thought. Maybe it's just because the anniversary was recently, but the media cutoff, the youth rallying, and possible shooting at protestors really do seem Tiananmen-esque.

6/15/2009 1:07:41 PM

Quote :

"119 members of Tehran University faculty have resigned en-masse as a protest to the attack on Tehran University dorms last night. Among them is Dr Jabbedar-Maralani, who is known as the father of Iranian electronic engineering. They have asked for the resignation of Farhad Rahbari the appointed president of Tehran University, for his incompetence in defending the University's dignity and student lives."

(there are reports that five students were killed at tehran university last night by riot police)

6/15/2009 1:09:25 PM

good pictures
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html

6/15/2009 1:23:40 PM

there was a picture i saw yesterday of ~10 riot police surrounding one guy (with no other protesters in sight) and three or four of the police were beating the man with their batons. pretty powerful stuff.

6/15/2009 1:33:17 PM

http://twitpic.com/7buyf
Protester shields riot policeman

6/15/2009 1:42:29 PM

great picture

6/15/2009 1:46:23 PM

Quote :

"good pictures http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html"

lol. In picture #4 i love the tilted camera action shot as they run from the fire.

6/15/2009 2:12:17 PM

^^ Thats Pulitzer material

6/15/2009 2:36:34 PM

rumors on the shooting from about an hour ago:

Quote :

"Rumours are still swirling about the shooting in Azadi Square. Some claim four demonstrators were killed with “many more” wounded; others claim that the assailant, a Basiji (unofficial “religious” police), was then beaten to death by the crowd. There is also an unconfirmed report of gunfire in three districts in north Tehran. French media put the number at the rally at up to 2 million."

an ap reporter says that at least one shot dead by militiamen:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/06/ap_photographer_1_dead_as_militia_fire_on_rally.php

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 3:45 PM. Reason : more reputable source]

6/15/2009 3:42:38 PM

In this kind of situation, I wonder if the US should try to do what it can to open up the lines of communication. Like maybe fly drones over populated areas that can broadcast open WiFi. I imagine the Iranian gov would get pissed if they found out, but it could put some serious holes in the media blackout.

6/15/2009 3:47:23 PM

one funny thing is that twitterers have launched ddos attacks on sites sympathetic to ahmadinejad and khemenei.

6/15/2009 3:48:55 PM

http://twitter.com/madyar
http://twitter.com/persiankiwi

6/15/2009 3:51:24 PM

picture of someone ?shot? here in the protests:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/livetweeting-the-revolution.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9rfnEyjr0w

video of one guy who got shot.

commenter claims that a basij gunman opened fire on the crowd from a balcony and killed at least one.

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 4:15 PM. Reason : .]

6/15/2009 4:12:57 PM

Quote :

"In this kind of situation, I wonder if the US should try to do what it can to open up the lines of communication. Like maybe fly drones over populated areas that can broadcast open WiFi. I imagine the Iranian gov would get pissed if they found out, but it could put some serious holes in the media blackout."

Or maybe Starbucks can open a few stores with hotspots?

6/15/2009 4:45:00 PM

This was at the end of the Q and A on CNN.com

Quote :

"However according to TIME magazine, behind closed doors the White House may be relieved by the result. Despite the attention paid to the office of the Iranian presidency, nuclear policy is set by the country's religious leaders and appear determined to amass enriched uranium whether or not a hard-liner or a moderate is president, the magazine said Monday. "Ahmadinejad's win may increase Washington's chances of getting tougher sanctions on Iran if they refuse to negotiate," TIME reported senior Administration officials as saying."

6/15/2009 4:45:47 PM

Quote :

"Or maybe Starbucks can open a few stores with hotspots?"

Starbucks' internet goes out through Iranian controlled networks just like everyone else.

6/15/2009 5:53:00 PM

Quote :

"In this kind of situation, I wonder if the US should try to do what it can to open up the lines of communication"

Do not be retarded. When it comes down to it the "sanctity" of the Iran election is none of our business. If the election truly was a wash than its the iranian citizens responsibility to stand up and fight for what he believes in just as the founding fathers of our country did 230 years ago. No point in stirring up trouble, wasting the tax payer money, and playing world police or we'll just be "American meddling in Middle Eastern affairs again" which is the rallying cry for terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and was the premise to which supporters of the Islamic movement now entrenched in Iran rallied behind in the 70's

6/15/2009 6:48:43 PM

http://michaeltotten.com/

Quote :

"Below are thousands of Iranians chanting not "Death to America" or "Death to Israel," but "Death to the Government.""

6/15/2009 7:41:43 PM

Quote :

"If the election truly was a wash than its the iranian citizens responsibility to stand up and fight for what he believes in just as the founding fathers of our country did 230 years ago."

While we shouldn't directly do anything (which we aren't). We should be ready to help indirectly if asked. After all, our founding fathers received a good deal of help in throwing off the British.

6/15/2009 8:34:25 PM

Yeah, the "Death to" chant is pretty versatile.

6/15/2009 8:36:25 PM

video of protester who was killed by the basij militia in iran:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or-1QYKWaPU

and the riot police beating someone in their own front "yard"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOMyzu6vCB8

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 8:39 PM. Reason : .]

6/15/2009 8:37:11 PM

could this be the first revolution that is captured on youtube and twitter?

6/15/2009 8:55:19 PM

"Trust us! We had counted the votes a few days before the election."

[Edited on June 15, 2009 at 9:05 PM. Reason : .]

6/15/2009 9:03:33 PM

My hopes are high but my expectations are not. My gut reaction is that the anti-Ahmadinejad stuff is being being blown out of proportion by people here and abroad who want very badly for it to be true.

6/15/2009 10:42:24 PM

Quote :

" Do not be retarded. When it comes down to it the "sanctity" of the Iran election is none of our business. If the election truly was a wash than its the iranian citizens responsibility to stand up and fight for what he believes in just as the founding fathers of our country did 230 years ago. "

our country had military and financial help from other countries without which we would have had a much harder time getting rid of the brits. And what im talking about is helping the iranian citizens talk to the world and each other, not military support. The biggest problem for iran's government is for its people to communcate freely. It seems they might not need our support in doing so after all, but it might not be a bad idea in the future. Instead of us going in and bombing the shit out of a country, just get them open access to the internet. We dont lose soldiers, we dont kill their civilians, they get to communicate freely. Everyone wins.

6/15/2009 10:57:29 PM

i think the point right now is that any obvious taking of sides by the american gov't could easily hurt the legitimacy of any uprising.

6/15/2009 11:18:30 PM

Obamas foreign policy ftw?

[Edited on June 16, 2009 at 12:41 AM. Reason : 6 months and irans already having protests? awesome! ]

[Edited on June 16, 2009 at 12:42 AM. Reason : now if only we had some reason not to be so scared of these deficits]

6/16/2009 12:40:38 AM

Don't you think that many Iranians have been affected by the democracy taking place right next door to them in Iraq?

6/16/2009 12:45:25 AM