Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/5/2010 2:29:12 PM

Cincy
Philly
Baltimore
Arizona(LETS GO CARDINALS!!!!)

1/5/2010 2:38:39 PM

Jets
Dallas
Baltimore
Arizona

1/5/2010 3:20:37 PM

Jets
Philly
New England
Greenbay

1/5/2010 3:29:00 PM

CIN
PHI
NE
ARI

1/5/2010 4:06:15 PM

Cincinnati
Philly
New England
Green Bay

AFC favorites, NFC dogs

1/5/2010 7:34:12 PM

Man, I'll have to admit I haven't really watched NFL this year but I love playoff betting so I'll take a shot at this more for the lore of 11-0 than the $100 bucks.

This thread is boring with just picks. If you want to gamble you have to think like someone who needs money and then do the opposite. If i looked at these games at face value I would select NYJ, Philly, Balt, and Ari in a heartbeat. But when I analyze my selections I almost completely change my mind.


1) The Jets seem to have a lot of heart and Cincy is a team that has no playoff success in most of our lifetimes. The Ickey Shuffle is something 5th graders did when I was in 1st grade. New York also has a lot heavier bettors than Cincy has because no one in Ohio has a job. There HAS to be a reason Cincy is favored even though no one respects them. Admittedly, I haven't seen them play a single game all season except for the one they lost in week one on a 80 yard tipped pass haha... but I would almost wager my life on Cincy in this game. Oh yeah I just realized talented, veteran QB vs a rookie. The Jets have no shot.

2) This is the toughest pick for me. I thought Dallas sucked all season and Philly was my favorite to win the NFC until last week. Philly +3.5 seems like such a megacockface bet that I have to slap my nuts against my leg until they turn blue. Here's what I think, I think Dallas either beats the dogshit out of them where the -10 line at something like +290 looks good or Philly beats them straight up for the +200 bet to hit. Fuck. The line is just too fishy, I will take Dallas -3.5 for the sake of this contest even though everything in my body tells me to take Philly. This is the ultimate contrarian play for me.

3) I think Ray Rice is fucking awesome. The only problem is Flacco sucks this year and can't make plays. If they had Welker I would take NE -6.5 but without him I am hesitant. Oh well, it's gonna be fucking cold and the Patriots will figure out a way to blow them out. NE is the most obvious play on the board to me since they'll probably win by 20.

4) Upset special. There is pretty heavy action on the Packers and Vegas has been very responsive which typically indicates a lack of confidence. However, points move easy under three especially in the playoffs so you can't overrate the movement. There is literally no precedent for how a Super Bowl runner-up performs in the playoffs because they never make it this far. Then again most teams don't play in a conference with three middle school girl's teams... In my heart I liked Arizona before I saw the line and then my buddy at work told me GB +2 was an incredible bet.... which means I have to take Arizona -2.5 even though the real line is like -1 now. Basically, I like Arizona to pull through, but I don't love giving up the extra 1.5 points...

1/5/2010 8:05:30 PM

jets
cowboys
patriots
packers

1/5/2010 8:07:37 PM

cincy
philly
balt
zona

i actually wanted to take every road dog, but it seems too unlikely

1/5/2010 9:01:17 PM

Cincinnati
Dallas
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/5/2010 9:14:12 PM

Cincinnati
Philly
New England
Green Bay

Quote :

"The Philly picks have to just be out of hatred for Dallas. "

I respond...

Quote :

"awareness of the last 14 years "

&

Philly has been hot the 2nd half of the season not counting the cowboys game

&

I think they are after blood after losing last weekend.

1/5/2010 9:28:28 PM

lets see, who is a better coach between Andy Reid and Wade Phillips

HMMMMMMMMM

1/5/2010 9:29:31 PM

shit, just realized i picked dallas to win a playoff game

1/5/2010 9:36:20 PM

well they've certainly looked better this december than any december in the last 10 years or so...but still...Reid is arguably a top 3 coach in the NFL...phillips is just jerry jones' bitch...plus i hate dallas

1/5/2010 9:38:00 PM

Quote :

"Reid is arguably a top 3 coach in the NFL"

until you get to the last 4 minutes of a close game, then he is arguably bottom 3

1/5/2010 9:40:52 PM

look at the last 10 years as a whole

I'd put Belichik first...probably put Reid 2nd...what does he have, 5 conference title games?

1/5/2010 9:44:02 PM

notice how i didnt argue your point?

notice how you didnt argue mine?

(lets not hijack this thread though)

1/5/2010 9:48:16 PM

Belichick
Fisher
Reid

in that order

I think 10 coaches could have had similar success to Dungy with Peyton at the helm; see Caldwell, Jim

1/5/2010 9:48:58 PM

just let it be known, that I hate the Dallas Cowboys

1/5/2010 9:50:07 PM

cincy
dallas
new england
green bay

1/6/2010 12:35:46 PM

jets
cowboys
pats
cards

1/6/2010 12:42:56 PM

Cincinnati
Philadelphia
New England
Arizona

1/6/2010 12:45:45 PM

Jets
'boys
ravens
cards

1/6/2010 12:50:20 PM

Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/6/2010 1:30:05 PM

GERONIMO....

Bengals
Eagles
Ravens
Packers

1/7/2010 12:51:43 AM

cinci
philly
ravens
gb

1/7/2010 1:00:34 AM

Cincinatti
Dallas
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/7/2010 1:09:41 AM

Jets
Cowboys
Ravens
Packers

1/7/2010 4:14:15 AM

Jets
Philadelphia
New England
Green Bay

1/7/2010 8:05:15 AM

Jets
Dallas
Baltimore
Green Bay

1/7/2010 8:43:41 AM

Well, since I have less than 1,000 posts, I guess I'll come in with amateur status...

(AMATEUR)
Bengals
Cowboys
Patriots
Packers

1/7/2010 9:52:37 AM

if you can get to 1000 by kickoff Saturday, you're eligible for the prize

1/7/2010 9:53:59 AM

Cincy
Dallas
New England
Green Bay

1/7/2010 10:03:55 AM

i got bored last night and started tallying up everyone's picks into a spreadsheet ... if you want to use it .. go for it ...if not .... well i guess i wasted a few minutes

(converted to 97-2003 .xls in case the plebes dont have 2007 yet)
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~jdcollie/SF-100dollars.xls

ill continue to update till it's over ... should be easy to eliminate people, just delete all the columns with losing teams and then whoever's sum on the right isn't 4, is a loser of the challenge

1/7/2010 11:28:09 AM

I knew I kept you around for something

1/7/2010 11:35:17 AM

current TWW stats (pick percentages)

NYJ	39.3
CIN	60.7
	
PHI	49.2
DAL	50.8
	
BAL	55.7
NE	44.3
	
GB	77.0
ARI	23.0

1/7/2010 11:47:25 AM

Based on the 6.25% chance that someone guessing at random gets all 4 games this week

Extrapolate that based on the number of participants to see how many should make the next week

Then take 6.25% of those people

Then take 25% percent of those people

Then take 50% of those people

and we have the predicted number of winners

1/7/2010 11:50:28 AM

Bengals
Eagles
Ravens
Packers

1/7/2010 12:01:42 PM

Cincinnati
Dallas
New England
Green Bay

1/7/2010 12:14:10 PM

i say if the cardinals win, no one wins the challenge



[Edited on January 7, 2010 at 12:19 PM. Reason : asdf]

1/7/2010 12:17:20 PM

NE, Philly, NYJ, AZ

1/7/2010 1:25:34 PM

Quote :

" Based on the 6.25% chance that someone guessing at random gets all 4 games this week Extrapolate that based on the number of participants to see how many should make the next week Then take 6.25% of those people Then take 25% percent of those people Then take 50% of those people and we have the predicted number of winners"

(n).5^11

1/7/2010 1:34:03 PM

rule #3

1/7/2010 1:40:29 PM

Cinci
Ravens
Philly
Ari

1/7/2010 2:02:32 PM

Jets
Eagles
Ravens
Cards

[Edited on January 8, 2010 at 5:30 PM. Reason : eagles]

1/8/2010 5:30:16 PM

Yeah get your pics in people

$100 is like a day's pay for some of you

1/8/2010 5:34:50 PM

what time's the first game

4:30pm tomorrow, I'll update that spreadsheet again

[Edited on January 8, 2010 at 5:45 PM. Reason : ]

1/8/2010 5:37:33 PM

Jets
Eagles
Baltimore
Arizona

1/8/2010 5:49:03 PM

i feel like i hate my picks but can't bring myself to change them

1/8/2010 5:49:20 PM

i dont really like mine cause I just faded those percentages you put up


figured why not

1/8/2010 5:51:01 PM