Guru,

I'm in a 16 team league. With this many teams, I can't go by a standard 10 or 12 person draft. If I'm drafting early or late, I could be looking at 30 picks before it gets back to me. Also, if the group makes a serious run at a certain position, I could be left with scraps. What type of strategies would you employ when drafting?

7/30/2010 5:39:55 PM

take the best player available in the RB, QB and WR positions as your turn comes up. I would take one of each with your first 3 picks

7/30/2010 10:49:13 PM

Just did my first real draft, its an espn league with standard scoring, 6pts/ rushing and receiving TDs, 4pts for passing TDs. I'm trying to get ready for my money league drafts, the first of which is next Saturday.

I wound up with the 1st pick in this draft, snake style, 10-team league. Let me know how you think I did

QB - Tony Romo
RB - Chris Johnson
RB - Jonathan Stewart
RB/WR - Wes Welker
WR - Brandon Marshall
WR - Calvin Johnson
TE - Jermichael Finley
D/ST - Vikings
K - Longwell

BN - Justin Forsett, TJ Housh, Cadillac Williams, Malcom Floyd, Laurence Maroney, Matt Leinart, Jabar Gaffney. I really like my team, I have a couple risks in Stewart as my RB2 and Welker as a starting WR

[Edited on August 1, 2010 at 11:14 AM. Reason : teams]

8/1/2010 11:13:03 AM

^ Few opinions on that one.

- Chris Johnson will be a top 3 RB, but he will not be number 1. You just can't reproduce what he did last year. I could be horribly, horribly wrong though.
- Welker will get you points but not till the middle of the season. He will miss at least 5 games and that's super optimistic
- I hate Tony Romo as a person and a football player, but because of the offense he's OK for fantasy
- J. Stew is a huge gamble. Had him on my team the whole year last year, and he didn't do anything till Williams went down. I hate to say this b/c I love the Panthers, but you have to hope that Williams gets injured if you want points out of this position.
- I really don't like Marshall this year. New team and no one to throw him the ball
- Calvin Johnson will improve this year with a more experienced QB. Hope he stays healthy
- Love Finley at TE
- D and Kicker are solid

I like both Forsett and TJ as bench guys, but I don't like that you have them both, if that makes any sense. Floyd could be a big sleeper this year. Not sure about Gaffney, but with Marshall gone lets see what he can do. Over all I give it a B/B-.

On a side note, why would you do your draft so early. My league isn't having our draft till after the 3rd preseason game.

8/2/2010 1:17:28 PM

^^ I really like your draft.

3 out of the last 5 games Henne threw for over 300 yards and B-Marsh is going to get his. Stewart and Welker are risks but it looks like you have good depth at the 2nd RB and RB/WR slot. Forsett looks to be the front-runner for the Seahawks, I had Cadillac last year and he was a top 25 back. Floyd is going to get every opportunity to be the guy in SD with Jackson acting like a clown. Gaffney had a monster final game when Brandon Marshall sat out last year. I expect Calvin to come back and have a monster year.

I'd give it an A for an ESPN standard league.

I feel like there are a lot of backs you can steal really late in draft if you can just figure out which one is going to get the ball. I did that with Cadillac last year. He's still going late. The Raiders/Browns/Skins/and to a much more complicated extent the Texans all have their first running back coming off the board really late. I predict Michael Bush, Harrison, and Portis really exceed their draft position. Might as well have a monkey throw a dart as far as the Texans go.

[Edited on August 2, 2010 at 1:39 PM. Reason : ]

8/2/2010 1:33:24 PM

I disagree about Stewart

Carolina may be on the only situation in the league where both backs can be starters in your average 10 team league

Even when Deangelo went insane two years ago, Stewart still had 800 yards and 10 scores

He should outproduce the #1 back of at least half the other teams

8/2/2010 1:52:21 PM

yeah true that...despite all his injuries, he's never missed a game...and even though there will be some games when Stewart does relatively nothing, ie 65 yards and no scores...he'll have some 100+ yard games...and with a John Fox coached team, he might even have some games with 30 yards, but 3 scores

8/2/2010 2:08:36 PM

The main reason I'm not super excited about J. Stew is he's so sporadic. Don't get me wrong, in real football he's one of my favorite players.

Look at last year's points per game. Combined points he's a great back, but when he routinely throws up single digit games (no fault of his) I can't justify him being an every week starter.

6
7
1
-
9
15
4
20
1
20
4
3
18
2
23
27
18

8/2/2010 2:35:49 PM

man, I disagree with almost every one of your comments about my team.

-Stewart had over 1,100 years last season and 10 TDs. I think both he and Deangelo will be studs this year, just like they have been for the last two seasons

-chris johnson is pretty much a consensus #1 pick, you can argue that any of the top 4 RBs could be the #1 (Johnson, AP, Rice, MJD) but after last season its hard not to pick Johnson #1.

-I think Welker will be fine this year, he is a strong WR2 and I have him as my WR3. The fact that Welker is already practicing and is off of the PUP list bodes very well for his numbers this year, especially knowing the Belichicks propensity to be very cautious when his players are injured

-Marshall had a great year last year when Kyle Orton was throwing him the ball. He is the only receiver the Dolphins have, and I think Henne is just as good if not better than Orton, so I expect him to put up similar numbers to last year, maybe better now that he's happy.

-Tony Romo has a good chance of being the MVP of the league this year. He has way too many options not to put up stellar numbers. I dont particularly care for him as a person, but he was a top 5 QB last season and the weapons around him got even better this year.

-Megatron supposedly has built up great chemistry with Stafford in the offseason and should be primed for a great year.

-My bench players are basically just some high risk, high reward players, I feel good about my starting lineup and tried to see which RBs and WRs had the best matchups during my starters bye weeks. Any particular reason that you dont like having Forsett and TJ on my team together? TJ was the best player available at that draft position, and I think he could have a bounceback year now that he and Hasselbeck have a season together under their belts. Housh quietly had a 900+ yard season, he just didnt find the endzone more than 3 times, that could easily change since hes a pretty tall player and the clear #1 WR for the seahawks.

I might be biased, but for a 10 team league, I think I have one of the strongest teams, if not the strongest

Also, I drafted now because I was bored and wanted to have a practice draft since I have a money-league draft this coming up weekend. I probably wont check on this team very often throughout the year, it was basically a mock draft, except the league members took it more seriously than a mock.

8/2/2010 8:36:12 PM

for those in keeper leagues, do you guys have a limit on how long someone can have the same keeper say 2-3 seasons or something like that? my league is having their "winter meetings" right now and there are some issues that have been tabled for vote this week.

8/3/2010 8:48:20 AM

^^ bitch move to use a real league for your mock draft...they have mock draft lobbies for a reason...I feel sorry for the people who take the league seriously and you don't even set up your byes, etc.

^ 3 seasons is our max...Its no fun if someone gets to own a guy for his whole career

8/3/2010 10:03:26 AM

^^I'm going to pay a little attention to it, I'll set up my bye weeks and shit, but its not going to be a league where I'm trying to work trades or something

its not like I joined a league where everyone knows each other and has a lot riding on the results. I bet half of the people in the league are planning on doing the same thing as me

8/3/2010 10:22:23 AM

so Brett Favre has come out and told the Vikings that he is going to retire, this pretty much destroys the fantasy value of Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, it also affects Adrian Peterson's value, just not as much as Rice or Harvins.

I guess the Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels era starts/continues in Minnesota and brings them down from being a Super Bowl contender to a fringe playoff team

8/3/2010 11:02:22 AM

DROD900, the only people on that team that I don't like are Stewart and Welker and depending on where you drafted them they could have been the best available. Stewart could very well end up as a top 10 back but he will still have those 1-5 point games. I think I'm just jaded about last year because it always seemed that I started/benched him on the wrong Sundays. I'm still weary of Marshall, but that's just mainly gut feeling. The reason I said B/B- is because its so early; depending on how camp and preseason goes that could go to an A but probably no lower than a B-. Overall solid team.

Maybe people should list teams in draft order instead of by position that can really tell how good of a draft you had.

Also a question to the group, what are opinions on Shone Greene and Jaamal Charles? Will LT and TJ hurt them a lot this season? The better question might be who is in that second tier of backs after the usuals (CJ, AP, MJD, Gore, Jax, Rice, Turner) Do the likes of Mendenhall, Matthews, Grant, Wells, etc crack into that group or is there a steep drop off?

[Edited on August 3, 2010 at 11:52 AM. Reason : .]

8/3/2010 11:46:53 AM

I think that there is an elite top tier of RBs that consist of Johnson, AP, MJD and Ray Rice. Then there is a slight dropoff down to the next tier which is SJax, Gore, Turner, Mendenhall, Mathews, Deangelo, Greene, Benson, Grant

Here is a good read that gives the pros/cons of drafting either Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles. http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Spin-Doctors-Shonn-Greene-vs-Jamaal-Charles?urn=fantasy-253260

8/3/2010 12:00:54 PM

Quote :

"so Brett Favre has come out and told the Vikings that he is going to retire, this pretty much destroys the fantasy value of Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, it also affects Adrian Peterson's value, just not as much as Rice or Harvins."

you're making the assumption that Favre is actually going to retire this time

8/3/2010 1:21:22 PM

well of course, if he doesnt then their fantasy values stay where they were originally

I'm curious how far sidney Rice's stock drops. He was a top 10-15 WR with Favre throwing to him, he is still a hell of a player, but I think he will drop down to 20-25 range

[Edited on August 3, 2010 at 1:25 PM. Reason : asdf]

8/3/2010 1:24:51 PM

1)mini-camp starts
2)"im going to retire"
3)mini-camp ends
4)"well maybe I can play"
...
5)profit

8/3/2010 1:30:45 PM

I think Greene has a monster year. LT was useless last year. No matter how much he wants to deny it, he's done. Charles might get relieved of some carries or goal line attempts but they're going to see what they have. He was a monster at the end of last year. I hesitated at Johnson last year because I was worried about Lendale White. I think both of these guys fall into that same situation.

There are the elite 4. I throw Gore into that elite group because of added beef to the O-line, weak schedule, and the fact that he was still a beast regardless.

Of the rest I think Mendenhall and Wells have exceptional years because they're carrying an added load. Mendenhall will have to make up for the absense of Ben for 4-6 and Holmes the whole year. The Cardinals will surely have to run more with Leinart at QB. The rest will be around par for the course. I expect Moreno (if the MRI comes back with positive news and hes only out the 2-3 weeks they say he is) and McCoy to have big years.

[Edited on August 3, 2010 at 1:35 PM. Reason : .]

8/3/2010 1:35:01 PM

how do you see the houston & buffalo backfields looking this season? 3-man rotations for both or do you see some guys being left out?

8/4/2010 4:22:47 PM

I wouldn't touch any of Houstons RB's until the last few rounds as a gamble....imo, Buffalo's probably gonna end up w/ a 1,000 yard guy, but who's it gonna be?

I'm just gonna stay away from all of em unless something changes drastically with their teams in the next few weeks.

8/4/2010 4:52:03 PM

I think Fred Jackson will rise to the top of the Bills RB depth chart. I've read all sorts of articles about how Chan Gailey likes to pick a #1 RB and use him for the vast majority of the carries. So if Fred Jackson wins the starting role he could be in for a good, under the radar season.

CJ Spiller will probably get used a lot like Reggie Bush or Percy Harvin have been over the last few years. He will get a few carries, a few receptions, a few gimmick/wildcat plays, some return yards/points, but I dont think he'll be an every down sort of player.

8/4/2010 5:12:03 PM

my advice would be to avoid any Bills players if at all possible, unless you're in a 16 team league or something

8/4/2010 5:14:10 PM

yeah, I wouldnt mind taking Fred Jackson or CJ Spiller as my 3rd RB, who starts the year out on the bench. Especially if you can get him in the later rounds of the draft after you've filled up the rest of your lineup. They both could have big upsides, or wind up being complete busts, I wouldnt count on either of them being your RB2

8/4/2010 5:20:17 PM

Ok Im in a league with custom scoring and Im trying to figure out which positions to draft early and which to wait for later based upon the following scoring:

QB:
25y -> 1pt, TD -> 6, INT -> -3, Sack -> -1, 50+ yd TD -> 3, 400+ passing -> 6

RB:
10y -> 1pt, TD -> 6, 50+ yd TD -> 3, 100+ -> 3, 200+ -> 6, PPR

WR:
10y -> 1pt, TD -> 6, 50+ yd TD -> 3, 100+ -> 3, 200+ -> 6, PPR

Im thinking a QB should be my first pick, but I know WRs are pretty thin this year. Also a top 10 RB should get over 100 pretty regularly so thats an easy 3 points. Thoughts?

[Edited on August 11, 2010 at 11:52 PM. Reason : a]

8/11/2010 11:51:32 PM

depends on where you are in the draft order...top 5ish, you still probably need to get one of the top tier RBs...any lower than that, think about getting a top tier QB

8/12/2010 8:44:34 AM

my fav draft spot is #10 of the 1st rd. i luvz,

8/12/2010 8:55:56 AM

I read an analysis a couple days ago that said you should target two elite WRs with your top 4 picks, with an RB and QB thrown in there on a "best available" basis.

With your league though, I agree with ^^ that you should go with AP, C.Johnson, MJD, Rice, Turner/Gore with the top 5/6 picks, if you fall out of that range, then I'd take a QB due to your scoring.

8/12/2010 9:12:47 AM

^^ drafted an ESPN league the other day from the 10 spot. Got Frank Gore and Steven Jackson.

8/12/2010 9:17:54 AM

so far I have had pretty good luck with the #6 slot. However, when I have my first drat this weekend I wanna land the 4th pick. That way I can get a top tier RB, while still being in position to get a stud in the 2nd round.

I also am a HUGE fan of having my pick towards the front or rear of the draft order, so I can have two picks close together. This helps me out, because I like to keep track of what players the teams between my picks have, and I can use that to strategize. For example, if I have the 8th pick and I am torn between picking a QB and a WR, I can check the 9th and 10th pick teams (who also have the 1st and 2nd picks) to see if they have filled their QB slot yet. If they have, then I can pick a WR first, and then take the same QB when I round the turn.

Thats probably common sense to everyone, but it might help someone

8/12/2010 9:23:49 AM

Following are going to be my ranking going into the draft.

(Copied format from Panthro's post)

RB:
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Ray Rice
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson
Shonn Greene
DeAngelo Williams
Michael Turner

After that I think it drops off and I can wait to draft in later rounds. Since I have PPR Im leaning towards C. Johnson or R. Rice even with the first pick.

WR:
Andre Johnson
Randy Moss
Calvin Johnson
Reggie Wayne
Miles Austin
Roddy White
Larry Fitzgerald
Brandon Marshall
Greg Jennings
DeSean Jackson

Again with PPR Im leaning more towards bigger receivers rather than faster (Moss, Fitz, White)

QB:
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Peyton Manning
Tony Romo
Matt Schaub
Tom Brady
Philip Rivers
Kevin Kolb
Stafford as a dark horse here

8/12/2010 10:33:57 AM

^ I'd put Manning and Rodgers ahead of Brees. The Madden curse will live. haha

V I'm with you on that

[Edited on August 12, 2010 at 10:56 AM. Reason : .]

8/12/2010 10:40:03 AM

I think Roddy White is going to have a monster year this year

8/12/2010 10:47:44 AM

Need some keeper help here guys. League has 4 keepers. First 2 for me are A Rodgers & C Johnson. Up in the air with who to go with for the last 2. Here are the best options I have:
Wes Welker, NE WR
Brent Celek, Phi TE
Mike Sims-Walker, Jac WR
Felix Jones, Dal RB

I like what I'm hearing about Welker so far (league is .5 pts per catch) and Celek carried me a few weeks. Sims-Walker & Felix Jones are also possible selections. If I don't select a keeper, I get an extra draft pick prior to the normal draft picks for each keeper opening I have (potentially allowing me to grab someone like Ryan Matthews). What say you tdub?

[Edited on August 12, 2010 at 11:57 AM. Reason : grammar fail]

8/12/2010 11:56:06 AM

def. keep welker

I dunno what else, i may go with sims...but thats about it...the dallas RB situation is a 3 headed monster.

8/12/2010 12:00:23 PM

yeh, my inclination at the moment is to go with welker as my 3rd & not keep a 4th in hopes of getting a guy like ryan matthews with my extra draft pick

8/12/2010 12:01:47 PM

Felix Jones should have a good year if you need an RB to keep....I think he has the best upside of any Cowboys running back (a bit more upside than Ryan Matthews IMO).

[Edited on August 12, 2010 at 12:19 PM. Reason : a]

8/12/2010 12:19:05 PM

Barber is still their go to TD guy add in Choice thats a tough trio that is gonna have to divide carries and minutes, not to mention they have donaldson and miller at that position as well.

not so sure i like Jones.

8/12/2010 2:05:00 PM

I would keep Welker and go after Mathews. I think he will have a better season than Felix. A lot of people are high on Felix but I'm not buying it, the Cowboys have said that they might employ Felix, Barber and Choice on the same drive. Mathews is the featured guy in San Diego, Sproles might take some of his carries, but nothing close to what Barber and Choice will take from Felix in Dallas

8/12/2010 2:12:28 PM

i agree, Matthews is the obvious red zone guy in SD. Felix is also pretty injury prone, and who really knows who is going to get the majority of carries there.

8/12/2010 2:21:08 PM

True Felix is in a RB by committee situation but we all saw his big play ability...he is fast and elusive and actually averaged 6 ypc. I think Barber will be used on the goal line and later in the game as a closer but Jones should get plenty of opportunities. Im thinking along the same lines as a Rice/McGahee situation in Baltimore. Though I dont expect him to put up Rice numbers I think he will do pretty well.

8/12/2010 3:23:05 PM

Auctions are a lot less fun once you run out of money.

8/12/2010 10:20:07 PM

I'm doing an auction for the first time this year. I just tried a 12-team mock and came up with this. (I left after #6.)

1. Drew Brees (NO - QB)
2. Steven Jackson (StL - RB)
3. Randy Moss (NE - WR)
4. DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)
5. Calvin Johnson (Det - WR)
6. Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR)
7. John Carlson (Sea - TE)
8. New Orleans (NO - DEF)
9. John Kasay (Car - K)
10. Jerome Harrison (Cle - RB)
11. Devin Thomas (Was - WR)
12. Donnie Avery (StL - WR)
13. Josh Johnson (TB - QB)
14. Benjamin Watson (Cle - TE)
15. David Buehler (Dal - K)

Clearly I blew my money early, but I think that I came away with some good starters. Agree/disagree?

8/13/2010 12:29:00 AM

Something doesnt add up there. You got 3 people who consistently go in the top 1.5 rounds (in Brees, s-jax and Moss).

What position were you drafting from and were you drafting against a computer AI?

8/13/2010 9:31:38 AM

Quote :

"I'm doing an auction"

8/13/2010 9:35:05 AM

Your starters are pretty good but your reserves are going to do very little for you. Hopefully you dont have injuries to your starting lineup.

8/13/2010 10:45:18 AM

I figured as much.

Also, I was really surprised by how little people thought of quarterbacks in that auction. I think there is a huge difference between the top and bottom of QB's for 12 teams! But everyone else was like "Nah, I'll just wait and pay two bucks for Kevin Kolb."

8/13/2010 12:16:26 PM

Shonn Green > Ryan Matthews > Beanie Wells

True or False?


2 pts per 5 catches & 1 pt per 10 carries the only scoring anomalies in the league

[Edited on August 14, 2010 at 6:33 PM. Reason : 1]

8/14/2010 6:31:44 PM

Well, here's my team in a 10 person, QB friendly, PPR league with no flex. I'm not loving the Knowshon Moreno pick because of his injury, and I wish my bench had a few more solid backups.

Four people waited late to draft a QB and TE, so they grabbed most of the safer bets at RB and WR.

QB - Aaron Rodgers
WR - Randy Moss
WR - Steve Smith (CAR)
WR - Johnny Knox
RB - Shonn Greene
RB - Knowshon Moreno
TE - Jermichael Finley
D - San Diego Chargers (at Chiefs 1st round)
K - Ryan Lindell

RB - Felix Jones
RB - Arian Foster
RB - CJ Spiller
RB - Michael Bush
WR - Devin Aromashodu
WR - James Jones


[Edited on August 15, 2010 at 9:47 AM. Reason : :]

8/15/2010 9:42:19 AM

I think your team looks pretty solid actually, you might be better off trying to get a better WR3, but I dont really know who you would drop and who is available on the waiver wire. I think its a good looking team all around though, which pick in the draft did you have?

8/15/2010 12:53:00 PM