Yeah, man Kansas sucks. Fuck any team who is equally balanced and in the Top 3 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They almost lost a game to Arizona, so they must be awful.

(never mind, their best freshman just played today for the first time and lit it up -- ignore that)

[Edited on December 18, 2010 at 5:37 PM. Reason : this thread is gone the way of the absurd]

12/18/2010 5:37:39 PM

so far in this thread, we have learned that 9-2 Arizona (losses @ #3 Kansas and @ #16 BYU) and 10-0 Kansas are both overrated

12/18/2010 5:50:15 PM

^ Kansas may develop into a great team but to this point I am unimpressed. They just barely beat USC today. Is it really that hard to comprehend? They have played an easy schedule and barely got past USC, UCLA, (both teams that are hovering just over .500) and AZ (although that one wasn't that close). What have they done this year that has everyone so impressed? Beat Memphis.

[Edited on December 18, 2010 at 5:55 PM. Reason : adfadf]

12/18/2010 5:50:45 PM

Won.

12/18/2010 5:51:10 PM

I'm not sure what you want out of Kansas. They have a higher RPI than Duke and according to the RPI have played a harder schedule (Pomeroy favors Duke but still relies on some preseason ratings).

[Edited on December 18, 2010 at 5:57 PM. Reason : is there anyone you are impressed with? this thread is really derailing now I guess...]

12/18/2010 5:55:38 PM

There's two teams you could conceivably argue should be ranked higher than Kansas, UCONN and Syracuse but even if you concede that they should be ahead of Kansas, how exactly is being ranked #3 instead of #5 severely overrated?

12/18/2010 6:00:16 PM

#1 in the nation in FG%
#1 in the nation in assists
#5 in the nation in PPG
4 guys averaging double figures (quick, somebody do some research and tell me who else can say that?)

12/18/2010 6:01:24 PM

I want to see some convincing wins against quality opponents. The statistical tools that you love to reference work well once the season has really gotten underway but at this point there isn't enough information for those tools to really be relied upon.

^ Against shitty teams some of which almost beat them.

[Edited on December 18, 2010 at 6:03 PM. Reason : asdf]

12/18/2010 6:01:50 PM

Quote :

"There's two teams you could conceivably argue should be ranked higher than Kansas, UCONN and Syracuse"

do what

12/18/2010 6:02:58 PM

I phrased that poorly, I meant two teams that aren't already ranked higher than Kansas

12/18/2010 6:04:09 PM

Yeah, are you saying UConn and Syracuse are better teams than KU?

12/18/2010 6:05:12 PM

no, I'm saying that even if you think they are then KU should be #5 instead of #3 which is NOT severely overrated.

12/18/2010 6:10:06 PM

The only guy arguing that KU is overrated is a fucking retard

12/18/2010 6:10:49 PM

Go look at the RPI for this time last year and tell me who the top ten were? I bet UNC was still up there weren't they? Historically speaking relying heavily on rankings/ RPI and other things this early in the year is pretty flawed. Kansas has had some close calls against teams that they should have blown out. I won't be at all surprised when they lose one of these games.

You guys bitch when we don't blow out teams that we should? Where is your consistency?

[Edited on December 18, 2010 at 6:17 PM. Reason : asdfa]

12/18/2010 6:16:46 PM

Dude, there is a difference between not blowing out a Pac-10 team and not blowing out a whatever conference Youngstown State plays in, no matter how down a year it is for the program... surely you see this?

12/18/2010 6:25:41 PM

Quote :

"Go look at the RPI for this time last year and tell me who the top ten were?"

I'm going to guess it was 10 of the best teams in the country at that time

12/18/2010 6:27:01 PM

Yes however we did blow out Youngstown state so I guess your argument is irrelevant. Where are the RPI and various statistical rankings from last year to back up how relevant of a tool it is this time of year for comparing teams.

12/18/2010 6:30:09 PM

Burden of proof is on you, dogg.

12/18/2010 6:33:08 PM

I mean a Youngstown State or whatever other low-major conference team we're talking about.

Ok, well this is officially pointless. I'm not even sure what you're arguing here. No one is saying State sucks here, but trying to prop us up by claiming that Arizona (I can at least SEE the argument I guess but their efficiency numbers don't back it up) or Kansas (absurd) are overrated and have played easy schedules is just silly..

12/18/2010 6:33:56 PM

i was gonna recommend moving this discussion to the College Basketball thread, but scratch that...I'd rather it die here with this thread in another day or two

12/18/2010 6:35:56 PM

Unfortunately none of the RPI sites seem to keep archives (surprising isn't it given how accurate they apparently are early in the season). However a great example would most likely be UNC they were probably still pretty high up in most evaluations and we all know how that turned out. Statistical analysis of teams becomes more accurate the more information you gather. At this point there is so little information the statistical analysis of teams is fairly worthless. Given the fact that two terrible teams (to this point in the season just over .500) have given Kansas all it can handle I don't see how my statement is that unrealistic.

12/18/2010 6:41:26 PM

Dude just stop kansas is pretty clearly the best team in the nation while irving is out. The metrics are remarkably accurate because they are based on formulas and even though each team has only played ~10 games there are 300+ teams so relative sos has pretty heavy weighting at this point.


We have about a 1/3 chance to win tomorrow. Arizona is a top 20ish team and we are about 70th without tracy. We're at home so we have a chance, but we're still 2 to 1 dogs.

Let's hope we win, we really need it

12/18/2010 7:00:02 PM

Quote :

"4 guys averaging double figures (quick, somebody do some research and tell me who else can say that?)"

Scott Wood 9 31.3 11.1
Ryan Harrow 9 22.9 11.1
Lorenzo Brown 9 29.4 10.7
C.J. Leslie 9 23.0 10.2

12/18/2010 7:01:02 PM

I wish we would have had Tracy for this game. Painter has really stepped it up and Leslie is acceptable playing the PF a bit. Howell can rebound but that's about it and Vandy is good for a few blocks and fouls. They both need solid games if we're to have any chance to win.

Has anyone else been disappointed in how Wood is used/plays? Yes, He does lead our team in ppg and is hitting 43% of his 3s but that's all he does. He's a great weapon but is really one-dimensional on offense. I guess one-dimension is better than the zero that our other player seem to be set up for. He looks like he has enough speed and strength to cut to the hoop some.

12/18/2010 7:03:54 PM

The purpose of RPI/Pomeroy Ratings/Sagarin/etc. aren't to predict which team will be the best in March

It's like you didn't even read the link you asked for

Quote :

"The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight"

Finding ratings from last November and comparing them to end-of-season results is pointless, except to show that you don't understand what you're arguing.

12/18/2010 7:05:47 PM

Quote :

""The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight""

HOW EVER THE EVALUATIONS ARE COMING FROM A VERY INCOMPLETE DATA SET. Do you really believe that in December of last year UNC was one of the better teams in the nation and then they somehow magically deteriorated? By the end of the year these statistical analysis tools work at this point in the year they are very limited. How can you keep ignoring this?

Quote :

"Has anyone else been disappointed in how Wood is used/plays? Yes, He does lead our team in ppg and is hitting 43% of his 3s but that's all he does. He's a great weapon but is really one-dimensional on offense. I guess one-dimension is better than the zero that our other player seem to be set up for. He looks like he has enough speed and strength to cut to the hoop some."

He is leading the team in steals and is one of the better defenders on the team.


[Edited on December 18, 2010 at 7:19 PM. Reason : a]

12/18/2010 7:15:12 PM

^I was really referring more to offense but a good point none-the-less. He is a really solid defender.

12/18/2010 7:29:53 PM

I would actually like to see him pump fake a little more (not Horner-esque). A simple pump fake would get him some FTs or give him an open drive.

12/18/2010 7:32:20 PM

Quote :

"Do you really believe that in December of last year UNC was one of the better teams in the nation and then they somehow magically deteriorated?"

Where are you seeing that UNC was highly rated at this time last year?

http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI/2009-12-18 is the only example I could find, and it looks pretty shitty overall, but UNC is 82nd.

And at that time they had beaten Michigan State (Final Four team -- end-of-season results, you know) and Ohio State (Elite Eight), and lost to Kentucky (by two on the road) and were blown out by Syracuse on a neutral court.

Not a bad resume, and certainly worthy of being considered one of the better teams in the country. The bottom didn't fall out until ACC play started.

12/18/2010 8:25:46 PM

iop2

W

12/18/2010 10:19:38 PM

Quote :

"Has anyone else been disappointed in how Wood is used/plays? Yes, He does lead our team in ppg and is hitting 43% of his 3s but that's all he does. He's a great weapon but is really one-dimensional on offense. I guess one-dimension is better than the zero that our other player seem to be set up for. He looks like he has enough speed and strength to cut to the hoop some."

Yes, I am so disappointed in our leading scorer and three point shooter... not to mention the only guy who showed up for youngstown state and wisconsin. So very disappointed.

12/18/2010 11:44:16 PM

^CJ Leslie says go fuck yourself.

12/19/2010 12:28:00 AM

People who are worried about not having Tracy (a very real worry), don't forget that we didn't have him in the game last year due to suspension, and we still only lost by 2 on the road on the final play.

Since last year, we have gathered far more talent, and they have lost their top guard. Some interesting stats from last year's game:

Big Dandy Vandy: 25 min - 11 rebounds, 1 block
Javi: 21 min - 7/11 FG, 6 TO
Mays: 27 min - 5/13 FG

The Big Dandy Vandy is interesting simply because he had so many rebounds in 25 minute...in his freshman year, early on in the season, in his first (and only?) game starting. Javi's is interesting because he was his usual TO self last season, whereas this year, he's had only 1 turnover in 6 games, 0 turnovers in 2 games, and 5 in 1 game (Wisconsin). He's only seen a decrease of (on average) 3 minutes per game, so it's not like his time is significantly changed. Mays' stat line was interesting because he played so much, and didn't shoot well. He had 13 points, but had the second most minutes (27) on the team. Basically, he was a drain on the team (big shocker here).

Their best returning player had a great game last time, racking up bunch of minutes and points. He took more attempts that game than he has in any game this entire year. Beyond that, their top newcomer averages only 15 minutes a game this season, and averages 6 points. They lost their second best player this past year, who also happened to be the guy who ran the court and scored their winning basket with 1 second left.

I just don't really see anything that they have that we don't this season. Their up tempo style is also going to be extremely advantageous for us. Our guys not only run the break better than long, drawn-out sets, but they also are far more fun to watch that way. Hopefully that will also help the crowd get in to it.

Not to mention, Karl Hess was the ref that game . It can only go up from a reffing stand point.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=293570012

12/19/2010 2:07:52 AM

In Sports Talk with Earl this week we learned that State basketball players play bad because the RBC Center is just so damn big and the fans don't cheer loud enough. Today we learned that a team can be undefeated with no losses and they are overrated. Those are some cool FACTS.

[Edited on December 19, 2010 at 3:48 AM. Reason : ^You are putting way too much emphasis and focus on one game, it was one out of over 30]

12/19/2010 3:48:20 AM

we were going to lose last years game by 10 until javi went tracy mcgrady on their asses...and we still lost

12/19/2010 8:11:29 AM

Quote :

"Where are you seeing that UNC was highly rated at this time last year? http://statsheet.com/mcb/rankings/RPI/2009-12-18 is the only example I could find, and it looks pretty shitty overall, but UNC is 82nd. And at that time they had beaten Michigan State (Final Four team -- end-of-season results, you know) and Ohio State (Elite Eight), and lost to Kentucky (by two on the road) and were blown out by Syracuse on a neutral court. Not a bad resume, and certainly worthy of being considered one of the better teams in the country. The bottom didn't fall out until ACC play started."

And we were 43, Western Fucking Carolina was 11? Do you really believe that western carolina was the 11th best team at that point in the year? Or did the statistical tools used get more accurate as more data was obtained? All I am trying to say is at this point in the year the statistical tools are limited because the data set is limited. Using the link you provided to look at last years statistical analysis and you will see that it had many obvious issues this time of year.

12/19/2010 8:15:44 AM

RAWR RAWR RAWR

12/19/2010 8:59:48 AM

WE ARE GOING TO WOSE THIS GAME. MARK IT A LIN

12/19/2010 9:44:18 AM

Quote :

"All I am trying to say is at this point in the year the statistical tools are limited because the data set is limited."

I would say Pomeroy's efficiency ratings are far more important than the RPI at this point in the year -- Kansas holds up well, at the very least, in both.

What you're doing though, is relying completely on a very biased eye test...

[Edited on December 19, 2010 at 10:32 AM. Reason : as does Arizona]

12/19/2010 10:32:30 AM

We are going to win this. AuH20 is right

12/19/2010 11:43:12 AM

I think we win this one too, but not by 18-20 points like a few Pack Priders think

12/19/2010 11:45:21 AM

Quote :

"Their up tempo style is also going to be extremely advantageous for us. Our guys not only run the break better than long, drawn-out sets, but they also are far more fun to watch that way."

I would counter with... we do? Our only competitive big non conference game was a rock fight against Syracuse with one of the worst final ten minutes in organized basketball history.

Sure we can run the dregs of the college basketball world off the floor, but have we shown we can play uptempo with talented teams? When the Georgetown game sped up, we got stomped.

12/19/2010 11:45:36 AM

My point was that even against the scrubs, we run the break better than long sets. For some reason, Coach Lowe's offense seems to be 'make 3 passes, and then everyone stand around with their hands up looking for a pass'.

Also, when Ryan came in the game at Syracuse, we weren't always running the break, but we certainly sped things up. He also wasn't in for those last 7 minutes or so.

As for Georgetown, I certainly agree. I would also like to think, though, that that was our first big game, and that caused a lot of our troubles. All of the freshman would start getting worried when they were down by 4/6/whatever, and force up a really bad first shot, not crash the boards, and then get back on defense. I think we've still seen that a bit, but it's happened less and less. Hopefully we'll continue with that trend against Arizona...or just not force bad shots at all.

I just can't see us coming out with a lack of energy this game. Last games lack in the first half was pretty much unanimously agreed to be because YSU wasn't that good of a team, and everyone was focused on Arizona. From all the post-games I saw, they all understand why Arizona is such a big game. Let's just hope that they don't turn that energy in to turnovers early, though.

12/19/2010 12:19:10 PM

Someone make a pdf or something of kenpoms rankings today and then post them at the variance will be much less than this guy thinks. Rpi is a shell formula, kenpom actually uses data

12/19/2010 1:00:37 PM

Leaving for the game now. Go Pack!

12/19/2010 1:23:33 PM

Is this one of the games you can buy cheap? and anybody remember the promo code?

12/19/2010 1:42:18 PM

What's up motha fuckas???????? My boys are in town

12/19/2010 1:53:22 PM

^^ It isn't and the only promo code I know is FAIR

12/19/2010 2:37:01 PM

anyone know if frankcal is gonna do this game on justin.tv?

12/19/2010 3:37:02 PM

77-71 PACK WINS!

12/19/2010 3:54:28 PM