Page 2 loves hurricanes

7/21/2011 10:38:57 AM

bttt for TS Don

7/27/2011 7:44:03 PM

btt for emily?

8/1/2011 12:17:42 PM

Hello Emily

8/1/2011 8:01:24 PM

My trip driving to Miami on Saturday is going to be a boatload of fun.

[Edited on August 1, 2011 at 8:25 PM. Reason : ]

8/1/2011 8:25:33 PM

Bring dat rain

8/1/2011 10:39:36 PM

starting to forecast a easterly turn

looks like NC MAY be in for some rain with this...have to wait and see.

8/2/2011 9:38:27 AM

Wow, if that thing keeps to the center of its projected path...I'm in for a buttload of mosquitoes.

8/2/2011 9:45:44 AM

Good, we need the rain in any form we can get it.

8/2/2011 10:14:39 AM

fuck the models are trending further and further east each run.

8/2/2011 11:21:25 PM

we need the rain

8/3/2011 8:38:08 AM

cold front likely gonna kick it out... we may not see much of anything from this

8/3/2011 8:47:52 AM

^I was wondering what you were talking about, then I hit refresh on the thread. The path went from the center projected to pass right up the middle of NC to... well, you see it. Also upgraded to a hurricane, and if it's going to be a hurricane, then I'd rather it miss.

[Edited on August 3, 2011 at 9:08 AM. Reason : -]

8/3/2011 9:07:31 AM

Still way to early to make inferences on anything. It has to survive Hispaniola first and then we'll see how it fares.

8/3/2011 9:29:32 AM

I'm hoping that cold front won't push it as far off shore as they're starting to say it will now.

I have a beach house in Emerald Isle for two weeks (well, family does) and I so want a nice hurricane party.

8/3/2011 9:52:00 AM

Cold fronts this time of year are difficult to nail. I wouldn't put much stock in a front throwing it out this far removed from landfall. Too much uncertainty. Hell, it could die in a day or so...

8/3/2011 10:17:47 AM

^Remember what happened that time I said "I wouldn't put much stock...."

8/3/2011 10:22:05 AM

I used a caveat.

8/3/2011 10:24:55 AM

well...that sucked.

8/5/2011 5:54:28 PM

Well damn.

8/5/2011 6:38:05 PM

They're climbin' in your tropics, they're dissipatin' your depressions up.

8/6/2011 12:27:12 AM

Emily will reform around the bahamas. Also future franklin is about to enter the carribean.

8/6/2011 10:21:52 AM

Advisories will resume on Emily at the 5 pm update.

8/6/2011 4:25:35 PM

Ack, that sucks.

8/6/2011 5:33:00 PM

want. hurricane.

8/6/2011 7:17:06 PM

WE BACK!

8/6/2011 7:46:04 PM

Might be something else within 3 or 4 days as a wave of energy gets ejected off the coast of Africa. We'll see...

8/6/2011 8:28:09 PM

Something cooking in the tropics...

8/18/2011 2:06:34 PM

nice. i hope there are some active storms in the next few weeks... it would be a good way to teach lat/long to get my students to track storms everyday.

8/18/2011 2:08:30 PM

Couple of model solutions for 97L:

ECMWF:


GFS:

8/19/2011 12:14:00 PM

Trough, baby, trough!

8/19/2011 4:10:58 PM

8/21/2011 9:18:13 AM

i predict it curves out to sea and really doesn't make landfall anywhere....MAYBE FL...but just skirts NC

8/21/2011 10:11:51 AM

Depends on the timing of the trough approaching the eastern US

Depends on how deeply the storm strengthens over the next 24 hours

Depends on how the storm interacts with Hispaniola

A landfall along S. Florida is pretty likely at this time

8/21/2011 10:18:26 AM

If it tracks over Hispanola and Cuba there isnt gonna be much of anything left but some rain

8/21/2011 10:34:47 AM

Not necessarily. If the move over Hispaniola is fast enough, it could definitely intensify before landfall again.

8/21/2011 10:40:13 AM

Yes, but I said Cuba as well, if it skirts north of Cuba then it has plenty of time. Typically if a storm tracks over both it just gets ripped apart too badly. If it was to head into the gulf that would again be another story but hispanola, cuba, then south florida that is just too much land and not enough water.

8/21/2011 10:44:32 AM

Some tracks have shifted east. Hazel? Hugo? Fran?









[Edited on August 21, 2011 at 3:01 PM. Reason : all wet]

8/21/2011 2:54:50 PM

im looking at the outside chance of a track over the flatter, western cuba and into the gulf for regen.

8/21/2011 3:15:27 PM

That's not likely at this point.

Recent model projections show little interaction with Hispaniola and none with Cuba. The GFS is particularly scary with landfall along northern SC coast, pushing into central NC.

Jeez. Model consensus is pretty good with this, as well. Eastward shift is still possible, however.

8/21/2011 4:57:14 PM

Beach trip next weekend! Who's in?

8/21/2011 5:01:11 PM

Cantore is already somewhere along the coast, I'd imagine.

8/21/2011 5:19:18 PM

^^^

Quote :

"im looking at the outside chance"

I haven't looked into the possible mechanism but the wrf model has it going west of cuba.

[Edited on August 21, 2011 at 7:37 PM. Reason : outside chance meaning not likely /please read]

8/21/2011 7:36:48 PM

8/21/2011 7:51:06 PM

Quote :

"I haven't looked into the possible mechanism but the wrf model has it going west of cuba."

Pretty sure you mean east.

8/21/2011 8:20:28 PM

There is the eastward shift, much more and things could get nasty around here

8/22/2011 7:36:24 AM

The likely eastward shift (center moving north of Hispaniola) and the storm slowing in speed (currently moving at 14 mph, was at 20 mph I believe yesterday or at least on Saturday?) should help it stay over warmer waters and easily become a major hurricane. The GFS model run at 18Z yesterday was particularly scary.

8/22/2011 8:20:11 AM

Some interesting dynamics could come into play, depending on how Irene strengthens. NHC hinted at it earlier. How if Irene strengthens rapidly to a strong hurricane, this could serve to reinforce the westward path, keeping it closer to FL.

If the storm fails to strengthen significantly and remains a weak hurricane, the eastward jogs could be more realistic. Is it possible the strong outflow from a strong Hurricane Irene allows the storm to "push" against the ridge, keeping it in the western edge of the guidance envelope? We'll see, I guess.

8/22/2011 9:38:27 AM

Stupid storm may ruin part of my vacation

8/22/2011 9:41:53 AM

Bring it on, we could use some good rain in Raleigh

8/22/2011 10:03:23 AM