ok, well, explain to me how choosing between two choices isn't a 50-50 chance. the first pick never mattered, dipshit. they may as well have only ever shown you two doors to begin with, because they were ALWAYS going to throw an empty one away. you are merely using a misapplication of statistics, and you're too stupid to see it

2/17/2012 3:04:23 PM

It's 50-50 whether we beat unc . We either HAVE to win or lose! It's one or the other nevermind if one of them is more likely than the other. It's 50-50!

2/17/2012 3:04:41 PM

because a game of skill is perfectly the same as a game of chance

2/17/2012 3:05:26 PM

God I can't wait to see you backpedal burro. You really are dense.

When you select one of there doors you have a 33% chance of selecting the correct one.

Even a 5 year old can understand 1 - 1/3 = 2/3

So there is a 2/3 chance it is behind the other two doors. They then show you a non random empty door. Which means 2/3 of the time it is behind the door that is left. There is still only 1/3 chance you selected correctly initially.

2/17/2012 3:08:51 PM

I would really like to take this Game Theory 101 class face is referencing. Then we can all be as knowledgeable as he is.

2/17/2012 3:10:06 PM

Actually you can take it . Harvard offers the internet lectures for free. It would do some of you a lot of good


As for the " Monty Hall " problem look it up yourself there's an entire website devoted to it and why its 2/3 if you switch

2/17/2012 3:15:12 PM

Instead of backing up his assertions with anecdotes from his illustrious academic or professional careers, Martin's all "nah I read it on the internet".

2/17/2012 3:18:08 PM

I couldn't find the Harvard course on a quick Google but Yale also hosts econ 159 - game theory online . It's open and free to anyone interested just Google "econ 159 Yale online"

2/17/2012 3:19:09 PM

2/17/2012 3:19:12 PM

Lets say I gave you the option of A) receiving 100 dollars or B) flipping a coin, where if you won you got 200 dollars and if you lost you got nothing. Most would prefer option A. But lets say that instead, would you rather give me C) 100 dollars or D) flip a coin, where if you lost you paid 200 dollars and if you lost you paid me nothing. Most would prefer option D, even though all four choices have the same expected outcome of 100 dollars. Why? Because we're more willing to gamble when it comes to losses, but are risk averse when it comes to our gains.

2/17/2012 3:19:57 PM

Quote :

"When you select one of there doors you have a 33% chance of selecting the correct one."

when you select one of the three doors, IT NEVER FUCKING MATTERED!!! that;s what you don't see.

OK, let's try another tact.
1) THere are three doors, A, B, and C. Only one of them has the goodies behind it. I show you that there was nothing behind door B. You now have doors A and C.
2) There are two doors, A and C. Only one of them has the goodies behind it.

what is fucking different about these two scenarios? EXACTLY!! NOTHING!!!

Quote :

"So there is a 2/3 chance it is behind the other two doors."

And there is a 100% chance it is behind one of the doors they didn't show you, and a zero percent chance it was ever behind the door they showed you. the original choice never made a difference. There was ALWAYS a zero percent chance of it being behind the door they show you.

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 3:23 PM. Reason : ]

2/17/2012 3:21:13 PM

Quote :

"Anyway there are a few reasons why but the predominant reason is that the most statistically likely space to roll from is jail. This is because you can reach jail by landing on it, landing on go to jail, rolling doubles three times, or via chance or community chest. Once in jail you are highly likely to roll a number that lands you on an orange space on your next roll or combination of two rolls."

When you land on jail, you're "just visiting".

2/17/2012 3:21:41 PM

^^^ true. Risk aversion is a popular concept in finance so I'm not surprised you know that one.



Correct ^ you are just visiting but you are still rolling from the same spot which makes you likely to hit an orange property. Red is the second best color group for the same reason.

Most people are surprised to learn that the green is the worst color group to own

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 3:24 PM. Reason : a]

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 3:25 PM. Reason : a]

2/17/2012 3:22:47 PM

Ummmm, this is a game thread correct??

2/17/2012 3:25:44 PM

face:

Quote :

"It's 50-50 whether we beat unc . We either HAVE to win or lose! It's one or the other nevermind if one of them is more likely than the other. It's 50-50!"

You heard it here folks. The 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament next month have a 50% chance of beating the 1s. Since there will be 4 games between the 1s and 16s, you take 0.50 and multiply it by 4, that means there will be 2 victories by 16 seeds over the 1 seeds.

2/17/2012 3:26:36 PM

Holy shit. Aaron google the three doors problem. Face, stop acting like your some statistical genius because you're aware of a classic "intro to stats" paradox. Everyone else, get back to talking about basketball.

2/17/2012 3:27:46 PM

yes, but face is bored, unemployed, angry and drunk. apparently he'd rather spend all day trolling than enjoying this beautiful day.

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 3:28 PM. Reason : ^^^]

2/17/2012 3:28:21 PM

Burro just stop and admit you are wrong.

I actually thought throwing the flag at amato was funny, but you're burying yourself on this one.

Just Google Monty hall problem, this problem has been solved by people far smarter than you already. They even have a game on the website you can play to prove yourself wrong if you're not intelligent enough to comprehend it yourself.

1/3 chance of selecting correctly, therefore the other door has a 2/3 chance of housing the grand prize

2/17/2012 3:28:40 PM

Not trying to be a genius. You are proving my point this is intro game theory.

It's why we can't have intelligent convos because too many people struggle with very basic concepts and logic

2/17/2012 3:31:43 PM

how can i watch this?

2/17/2012 3:31:56 PM

Martin you should share that Adam Morrison costume with TWW

2/17/2012 3:33:20 PM

http://www.vipbox.tv should have the game on.

2/17/2012 3:33:24 PM

the fuck is going on here?

2/17/2012 3:34:56 PM

Quote :

"Not trying to be a genius."

Well good, because if you were, you'd be failing.

2/17/2012 3:35:26 PM

I heard Tim Pickett pulled hammy today, might be out

of the game tomorrow

2/17/2012 3:37:50 PM

Quote :

"the fuck is going on here?"

I don't know, but I don't like it. I haven't seen a single post about guarding the perimeter or 15 point leads, or liking the Pack vs the spread. No sir, I don't like it at all.

2/17/2012 3:43:28 PM

what's the spread?

2/17/2012 3:43:53 PM

haha did not expect to see the monte hall problem in this thread.

in other news, GO PACK PLZ 2 WIN

2/17/2012 3:44:46 PM

Wow another game thread that is complete shit. One of the games, people spent 1.5 pages talking about who on the team is hot, this one we spend a page talking about Lets Make a Fucking Deal.




V Oh yeah you are right. Either way it sucks to see these threads devolve into shit




[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 3:47 PM. Reason : sd]

2/17/2012 3:45:40 PM

^that wasnt a game thread, it was the recruiting thread, and it was appropriate given its a 200+ page thread discussing how strong 16 year olds are

2/17/2012 3:47:02 PM

Quote :

"the fuck is going on here?"

Quote :

"I admire face, actually. He's one of the most successful trolls I've ever witnessed. Completely derails every thread."

2/17/2012 3:57:07 PM

Wait, burro was the guy that threw a flag at amato?

2/17/2012 4:21:08 PM

might as well bring back the gifs for this thread:

2/17/2012 4:26:35 PM

Quote :

"Wow another game thread that is complete shit. One of the games, people spent 1.5 pages talking about who on the team is hot, this one we spend a page talking about Lets Make a Fucking Deal."

Please, nobody on the team his year is hot. Clearly you weren't paying attention.

2/17/2012 4:28:06 PM

^Pardon?

2/17/2012 4:29:54 PM

this thread

I loves it

2/17/2012 4:39:12 PM

^^^IDK about that. Howell has slimmed down.


[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 4:40 PM. Reason : .]

2/17/2012 4:39:45 PM

Quote :

"I'm not going to post again until we lose three games. I'll probably see you guys Feb 21st. Try not to get hyped up about the duke and unc games. Fsu is the one we need."

but face...you promised

2/17/2012 4:48:37 PM

Quote :

"Just Google Monty hall problem, this problem has been solved by people far smarter than you already. They even have a game on the website you can play to prove yourself wrong if you're not intelligent enough to comprehend it yourself. 1/3 chance of selecting correctly, therefore the other door has a 2/3 chance of housing the grand prize"

you are making the fatal assumption that there is a direct statistical connection between the two picks, but there isn't. It looks like there is, but the way it is designed, the two picks are statistically unrelated. The fact is, you've a got a choice between doors, every time. The "2/3rds" is negated by the fact that we know, for certain, every time, that one of those doors on the other side is empty, which changes the math. Please, answer this question:

Quote :

"1) THere are three doors, A, B, and C. Only one of them has the goodies behind it. I show you that there was nothing behind door B. You now have doors A and C. 2) There are two doors, A and C. Only one of them has the goodies behind it. what is fucking different about these two scenarios?"

that is what you are left with, and they are identical. You see one is 50-50, and the other you're not so sure. but, once you know they are identical, you see that the probability must be the same. You make the first pick, which only serves one purpose: which empty door to remove. Once you understand that an empty door is always removed, you see that your second pick is always the same: 50-50 chance. The only pick that matters is the second one, and that starts with a 50-50 chance. That you originally had a 33% chance is irrelevant, because the two picks are statistically independent, in much the same way that landing heads on a coin on the first flip doesn't make tails any more likely on successive flips.

2/17/2012 5:13:32 PM

can't get the formatting worked out

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 5:37 PM. Reason : nm]

2/17/2012 5:28:28 PM

you just don't understand stats. it's clearly a choice between two doors

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 5:31 PM. Reason : ]

2/17/2012 5:30:10 PM

thread needs more of this:

2/17/2012 5:43:04 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

2/17/2012 5:44:41 PM

I don't buy into that liberal propaganda. wikipedia isn't a valid source anyway.

2/17/2012 5:52:35 PM

those damn liberals and their internet encyclopedia, youre pretty daft

2/17/2012 5:53:32 PM

how about the american statistics society?? that valid enough for you?

http://www.amstat.org/publications/JSE/v13n2/carlton.html

just walk away from this one

Quote :

"The problem is intended to mimic a situation from the game show Let’s Make a Deal, hosted by Monty Hall (hence the problem’s title). Again, we will present here two solutions: a plausible wrong answer and the correct answer using Bayes’ Rule. Then, we will explore the mistake being made. The (in)famous wrong solution: With one goat revealed, door number 2 hides one of two possible prizes: the other goat or the car. Since we have no knowledge of which it might be, the chance of finding the car behind door number 2 is 1/2, and there is no advantage to making the switch. As we shall see, the erroneous solution again arises from misapplication of conditional probability. In particular, the solution above fails to realize that some information has been gained with the unveiling of one goat. The right solution: Consider the tree diagram in Figure 5. Remember that Monty can neither open Door #1 (the contestant’s choice) nor open the door hiding the car. Figure 5 Figure 5: Tree diagram for the Monty Hall Problem. Let C denote the event that the car is behind Door #2; the a priori probability of C is P(C) = 1/3. Let D denote the event that Monty opens Door #3; according to Figure 5. P(D | C) = 1 and P(D) = 1/3 x 1/2 + 1/3 x 1 + 1/3 x 0 = 1/2 Hence, by Bayes’ Rule, Therefore, the car is hidden behind the remaining door two-thirds of the time. In other words, the contestant can double his chance of winning the car (from his initial 1-in-3 guess) by employing the strategy of switching when Monty Hall gives him the option. Let’s consider what goes wrong in the first solution. We can draw the sample space as in Figure 6."

[Edited on February 17, 2012 at 5:58 PM. Reason : if youd ever taken stat 301 you would know this]

2/17/2012 5:54:38 PM

Too much stupid in this thread. Time for some real analysis:

FSU lives off points inside the arc. I doubt they get those against us.

They don't shoot threes at all. That's our main weakness defensively.

Defensively they are horrid.

They are hopelessly short and have zero depth.

I like NC State vs the spread. This has all the makings of a 30+ point game that might only be a 15 point spread.

2/17/2012 5:56:04 PM

even the wikipedia page says that the value is 50%. can;t even post links that work for you

2/17/2012 5:59:44 PM

no it doesnt

2/17/2012 6:00:23 PM

jesus christ guys, can we please talk about how this team is going to be too deflated to win this game instead?

2/17/2012 6:02:05 PM