Quote :

"Based on what I have seen a lot had to do with the SAL being in overdrive this year cutting off the wave train off Africa. That combined with a lot of stable air over most of the atlantic and several ULL's cutting off potential waves early. Sometimes shit happens that doesnt make sense. 2005 went way overboard and this year is basically evening that out I guess."

^ The current thinking is that the SAL doesn't impact hurricane development one way or another.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009MWR3135.1

[Edited on September 27, 2013 at 9:40 AM. Reason : page wrap]

9/27/2013 9:39:40 AM

Good read thanks for the link. I am obviously no expert on the matter, just from my observations this particular year. The amount of dust rolling off Africa was at times enough to cover half the atlantic and watching tropical waves look so great over Africa only to plow into that dust and go poof... well you can see my correlation haha.

I suspect many a meteorologist after his PhD will do their research on this particular year and why it has been such a bore.

[Edited on September 27, 2013 at 9:45 AM. Reason : .]

9/27/2013 9:45:19 AM

Quote :

"Named storm wise it hasnt been the worst season"

what does that even mean? 60 years ago 95% of the named storms this season wouldn't have even been detected.

9/30/2013 2:08:10 PM

It simply means as far as number of named storms go there have been worse seasons. I agree fully though that some of the storms that have picked up names this year have been borderline at best. Hence, why the ACE number is so pitiful even with the number of named storms.

9/30/2013 2:12:09 PM

Agreed.

I mean Humberto formed right before the record was about to be broken (for latest forming hurricane) and he lasted all of one day, lol.

10/1/2013 9:40:49 AM

10/1/2013 12:53:46 PM

Better this weekend than the next... I just hope that it doesn't strip the trees too soon.

10/2/2013 9:11:46 PM

hurricane + government shutdown = #heckofajob

10/2/2013 9:29:12 PM

TROPICAL STORM KAREN!

Quote :

"DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. "

[Edited on October 3, 2013 at 8:21 AM. Reason : 60 mph winds!]

10/3/2013 8:09:28 AM

^Just made official by the NHC.

10/3/2013 9:09:09 AM

Well looks like it will be cleared out by the time I am headed to the OBX for my fishing trip middle of next week.

Bad news is the last round of tropical rains showed me a leak in my roof that they have yet to be able to get anyone out to fix. Suspecting if I cant get them out there tomorrow or Saturday that I will have to setup buckets again come Monday .

10/3/2013 9:43:24 AM

no no no no no no no. I just regraded some of my ditch and am having it seeding today

can't catch a damn break on these ditches.

10/3/2013 9:45:58 AM

Wow, it couldn't even stay together in the Gulf?

10/7/2013 8:43:22 AM

Nope but forecast says its gonna ride up the front and stall off the NC coast... just in time for my fishing trip this year. GOD DAMNIT!!!

10/7/2013 8:53:51 AM

so we can expect this Pacific system to come cross-country and through NC eventually, apparently



[Edited on October 15, 2013 at 10:57 PM. Reason : ]

10/15/2013 10:57:38 PM

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

10/24/2013 10:25:48 AM

Quietest hurricane season in 45 years.

10/29/2013 1:12:55 PM

message_topic.aspx?topic=634183

10/29/2013 2:06:40 PM

For those who care or may not be paying attention the strongest storm in recorded history is bearing down on the phillipines right now. 862.2 mb pressure and falling shattering the old record of 870 mb. I wouldnt want to be anywhere near this thing!

11/7/2013 9:45:54 AM

dang, that eye looks perfectly formed

11/7/2013 9:57:14 AM

Fuck Fuck Fuck Fuck! I am in the midst of submitting a literature review on tropical cyclone extrema, and this storm forces me to revise a large chunk of writing.

11/7/2013 9:58:31 AM

They need to start praying that it starts an eyewall replacement in the next few hours. 190mph sustained 230 mph gusts... yikes!



[Edited on November 7, 2013 at 10:02 AM. Reason : .]

11/7/2013 10:00:16 AM

11/7/2013 11:03:33 AM

fuck...

11/7/2013 11:15:24 AM

11/7/2013 12:08:29 PM

how do those wind speeds compare to the records?

11/7/2013 12:47:31 PM

The worst typhoons that I can find had wind gusts up to the 180-190 mph range. That's gusts, not sustained.

Paka may have had comparable wind speeds (gusts in the 230 mph range) but those results are disputed and wikipedia shows a peak of 185 mph and sustained winds of 115 mph.

(per google, i don't know shit about meteorology)

11/7/2013 1:24:36 PM

From Dr. Masters:

Quote :

"Super Typhoon Haiyan is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history, with sustained winds an incredible 190 mph, gusting to 230 mph, said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in their 15 UTC (10 am EST) November 7, 2013 advisory. Officially, the strongest tropical cyclone in world history was Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961, with sustained winds of 215 mph. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. Since 1969, only three tropical cyclones have equaled Haiyan's 190 mph sustained winds--the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds, but Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. Some interpretations of satellite intensity estimates suggest that there may have been two super typhoons stronger than Tip--Super Typhoon Gay of 1992, and Super Typhoon Angela of 1995. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 12 UTC (7 am EST) November 7, 2013. Haiyan has the most spectacular appearance I've ever seen on satellite loops, with a prominent eye surrounded by a huge, impenetrable-looking mass of intense eyewall thunderstorms with tops that reach into the lower stratosphere. With landfall expected to occur by 21 UTC (4 pm EST) on Thursday, Haiyan doesn't have time to weaken much before landfall, and will likely hit the Philippines at Category 5 strength."

[Edited on November 7, 2013 at 1:26 PM. Reason : k]

11/7/2013 1:26:12 PM

Making landfall soon, should be a hell of a ride. Discovery channel sent some guys over in path of this thing so maybe will get some good video out of them.



[Edited on November 7, 2013 at 4:02 PM. Reason : firecane!]

11/7/2013 3:58:35 PM

making landfall with 225mph sustained winds at the center and a 60' storm surge, fuuuck

11/7/2013 4:25:15 PM

is there any link to coverage of this?

As bad as it sounds, I want to see footage (if its possible) of this giant.

The biggest in my lifetime.

11/7/2013 4:33:57 PM

You can follow @ExtremeStorms and @typhoonfury on twitter they are on the ground will likely be in the northern eyewall. Discovery channel guys I believe.

http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay/bolabogbay/ webcam

[Edited on November 7, 2013 at 6:03 PM. Reason : webcam]

11/7/2013 5:52:40 PM

Anyone in the red is having a really bad morning!

11/7/2013 6:27:09 PM

http://www.pnoytv.com/2010/06/watch-abs-cbn-online-stream-1.html Live news feed

11/7/2013 6:40:48 PM