Whatever hurricane came through in 2003-2004 time frame NC State cancelled classes ahead of time for the day after the storm came through(hit that evening)...next day woke up and it was perfectly sunny and a beautiful day.

It was glorious.

9/30/2015 3:31:48 PM

So whats with the difference between Euro models and GFS? Euro says stayout/north, GFS says hit NC.

9/30/2015 3:39:58 PM

Hell no they won't cancel class here.

I remember years back that storm tracked right over Raleigh and we had a huge hurricane party at one of the old apartment complexes.

I'm more interested in the rain totals and the amount of flooding considering its already flooding at the beach.

[Edited on September 30, 2015 at 3:43 PM. Reason : ^no idea, something about that ridge that will swallow it in?]

9/30/2015 3:42:12 PM

Official Forecast and model runs are bringing more of it into NC, as of 5pm.

9/30/2015 5:08:18 PM

BRING IT JOAQUIN!


[Edited on September 30, 2015 at 5:33 PM. Reason : big pic]

9/30/2015 5:32:49 PM

Throwing this out now: Gonna look a lot like Fran. Same coastal flooding we saw in Floyde though.

9/30/2015 6:14:32 PM

Yeah I've been reiterating that to my coastal friends...All this soggy wetness is like when Bertha came through before Fran and got everything wet then Fran just pushed everything over.

I don't have a good feeling about this one.


[Edited on September 30, 2015 at 9:38 PM. Reason : looks like more Eastern track now over NC.]

9/30/2015 9:37:00 PM

Latest models have it staying further off the coast, less of an impact for NC.

10/1/2015 8:27:59 AM

I am just glad it has slowed it down a little again I have a 1 pm flight sunday out of RDU so this thing needs to at least take its time getting here if its coming.

10/1/2015 8:42:48 AM

I'm watching this closely in Virginia Beach

10/1/2015 9:32:13 AM

my friend is on her way to a cruise in the Bahamas right now.

10/1/2015 9:38:59 AM

Upgrade to lvl. 4

10/1/2015 2:10:43 PM

^not really "news". Everyone knew it would (and maybe will more) increase in strength. But it will be short lived.

Latest round of models have it staying even further off the coast. Yesterday it was Chesapeake Bay, this morning it was NJ Shore, and now Long Island. At this rate it'll barely clip New England before heading back to sea.

10/1/2015 2:25:55 PM

The newer model runs are trending towards the solution the ECMWF has yesterday; taking the storm out to sea.

10/1/2015 2:52:08 PM

Hard for me to believe it's not going to impact the coast somewhere...guess it depends on the system near Europe/NE Atlantic

10/1/2015 2:53:57 PM

Looks like the Euro model might be the one that was right. Almost all of the others yesterday were trending towards an NC landfall, but the Euro was holding it way off the coast and heading straight north.

10/1/2015 3:15:19 PM

It all depends on the strength of the gulf low. The European model doesn't do well with gulf lows so when the gulf low was expected to strengthen and pull the hurricane west at almost a 90 degree angle, its not expected to deepen in the same way and have that influence now.

10/1/2015 6:14:35 PM

Supposedly a model is now showing it getting sucked in and hitting the Wilmington/Myrtle area as a strong cat 3.

that would be pretty devastating here.

Less Rain but more wind...which do we prefer?

10/2/2015 1:19:00 AM

^The rain/wind we are getting from this wedge/front is more than enough. I don't think we have much to worry about now with Joaquin.

10/2/2015 8:24:36 AM

We're getting a fuck ton of rain in Charleston this weekend...and last two days...non Joaguin related. Closed schools today. I'm working from home...very tempted to start drinking at lunch. I love this shit.

10/2/2015 9:25:43 AM

Really?

10/2/2015 11:59:31 AM

yeh, dumb graphic is dumb. and is good for friends stupid "friends" so you can delete them.

10/2/2015 1:42:22 PM

once again supposed "scientists" predict doom and gloom and a huge disaster... and the hurricane goes nowhere near where they say it would.

these are the same people who say that humans can affect the climate of a planet that is over 5000 years old in only 100 or so years.

10/2/2015 11:14:17 PM

They actually predicted it fairly right...I mean the Euro model has been pretty consistent with this storm and a lot of other East coast storms this year.

Is it so bad they plan for the worst just in case?

70 years ago we had no idea there was even a hurricane coming this way...and now we bitch because the projected path was off 5 days out.

10/3/2015 2:08:34 AM

they predicted it right? what? those liberoscientwats said it was going to plow into NC, wasting probably millions of taxpayer dollars because they want to ensure enough panic to secure their paychecks. this is just damn shameful government waste of the highest caliber.

10/3/2015 4:06:50 AM

they predicted it right? what? those liberoscientwats said it was going to plow into NC, wasting probably millions of taxpayer dollars because they want to ensure enough panic to secure their paychecks. this is just damn shameful government waste of the highest caliber.

10/3/2015 4:06:50 AM

Whoops you double posted your troll there.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/10/03/upshot/hurricane-joaquin-forecast-european-model-leads-pack-again.html?_r=1&referer=

[Edited on October 3, 2015 at 9:20 AM. Reason : .]

10/3/2015 9:19:02 AM

Quote :

" these are the same people who say that humans can affect the climate of a planet that is over 5000 years old in only 100 or so years."

LOL

10/3/2015 10:32:52 AM

Flooding in SC is pretty bad...Columbia area especially.

10/4/2015 4:00:56 PM

wrong thread

10/4/2015 7:33:18 PM

Quote :

"once again supposed "scientists" predict doom and gloom and a huge disaster... and the hurricane goes nowhere near where they say it would. these are the same people who say that humans can affect the climate of a planet that is over 5000 years old in only 100 or so years."

I really hope this is just trolling

10/5/2015 12:23:36 PM

To soon to declare this hurricane season over?

Looks extremely unlikely that a major storm (Cat 3 or higher) will hit the US this year, bringing the streak up to 10 years running...good news altogether

10/13/2015 9:11:28 AM

Sandy hit in late october in 2012, but based on how the rest of this year has gone and the western caribbean tearing up anything and everything, it's done.

10/13/2015 9:36:13 AM

good. I've got a trip to the Caribbean in November.

10/13/2015 10:36:04 AM

For those who care Hurricane Patricia began rapid intensification yesterday and has gone from a tropical storm to the most powerful hurricane on record in under 24 hrs and isnt expected to weaken much if any before it hits the Mexican coast sometime later today. 200 mph sustained and actually confirmed by aircraft rather than estimated by satellite. Scary situation for those in its path as they wont get much warning due to such rapid intensification.

10/23/2015 8:10:07 AM

Mmm...eye wall contraction.

10/23/2015 8:50:03 AM

If you extrapolated out the SS scale this would be a cat 7

10/23/2015 9:32:58 AM

That reminds me of the original Fujita Scale which supposedly went up to F-10, but once you got to F-5 you were already obliterating everything so there was no practical way to tell if the tornado were stronger from the damage.

10/23/2015 10:50:32 AM

Patricia is fucking crazy. It intensified so fast. Really don't know what the devastation will be like... but it's going to be bad for Mexico.

10/23/2015 11:38:27 AM

if it's that strong, I wonder how long it's going to last after it makes windfall, could it make Texas or the Gulf still being tropical?

10/23/2015 12:36:42 PM

It won't get to the Gulf. The high terrain in Mexico will eat this thing up.

10/23/2015 2:00:32 PM

Mind blowing for this thing to escalate in scale so fast. I mean Jesus Christ!

10/23/2015 2:28:58 PM

Keep in mind the max sustained winds are only in a narrow band surrounding the eye. With that said, anyone who gets in the eyewall is in for damage equal to an EF-4 to EF-5 tornado. Of course the winds will last longer than a tornado as well (obviously). Think Joplin or Tuscaloosa.

10/23/2015 2:31:50 PM

but aren't the other winds around it still ridiculously high?

so while the eye may be the strongest, its still crazy strong

10/23/2015 2:35:18 PM

Well sure, hurricane force winds extend 35 miles out (74 mph+) and tropical storm force (39 mph-73 mph) extend 175 miles out. Those winds however are a far cry from the freight train in the core.

10/23/2015 2:59:53 PM

Follow @iCyclone on twitter if you want he is the only chaser I know currently in position to put himself in the eye of this thing.

10/23/2015 3:53:12 PM

Oh yeah I know him. He chased Haiyan in the Philippines.

10/23/2015 4:03:54 PM

Webcam I was watching in la manzanilla just went down it was getting nasty. Scary part is it was on beach figured guy left it but it got knocked over and someone picked it up wiped it off and set it back up poor life choice once winds shift on him surge is gonna come in quick his trees were already shredded

10/23/2015 6:27:25 PM

Quote :

"That reminds me of the original Fujita Scale which supposedly went up to F-10, but once you got to F-5 you were already obliterating everything so there was no practical way to tell if the tornado were stronger from the damage."

look, i don't mean too much disrespect, but the fujita scale is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. i realize the the general public doesn't typically know the difference, but hurricanes are large storms that cover entire regions for hundreds of kilometers. tornadoes are isolated incidents that don't typically disrupt more than a mile or so outside of their path.

10/24/2015 1:38:37 AM

^He mentions that it is for tornadoes. He was just making an example.

Trust me, HockeyRoman knows the difference between the scales and storms.

10/24/2015 8:29:15 AM