That's a suckers bet. Apple is damaged goods for awhile and if it couldn't return to the 120s before getting smacked again on this earnings report while the market is at a peak then it's going to take eye popping numbers to the point that all this negative press completely flips to "APPLE IS BACK BABY" and do you really see that happening in 9 months? No fucking way.

This is coming from someone continuing to hold 100 shares in my IRA even as I watched it stall at 130 all last year knowing it was time to cut it loose (cost basis is ~$61) and then really fucking hated myself when it dipped on the market hysterics last fall, got back into the 120s and knowing with certainty the Apple miracle needed a new narrative or else it was going to find a new trading range.

The action today while the market was down probably says it's found a floor and a new range for a few months unless the broader market has a hissy fit. It's going to take back to back great quarters couple with positive stories about China and India or some insane growth in services to get this stock above 120 and I'll eat my hat if it gets to your 130 by January.

[Edited on May 3, 2016 at 9:52 PM. Reason : z]

5/3/2016 9:51:22 PM

I'm not touching apple until they announce plans to do something, anything with their cash. Smartphone and tablet markets are pretty well flat, and within those markets apple is only going to keep losing market share, and there really isn't any reason to put money into it at this point.

If they do what I've been begging them to do, like making exclusive content for apple tv, doing more to monetize itunes or become a "label", etc. I wish they'd move away from hardware so much and start addressing content. Amazon is doing it, Netflix is doing it, Hulu is doing it, etc. and it's been amazing for them.

I mean, they could surprise and find a great partner for the car or the new phone could be somehow revolutionary, but I don't see much reason to get back into apple.

5/3/2016 10:39:11 PM

^^
^

Truth. Im holding on Apple and hoping they spend some of their cash on buybacks or dividend increases.

5/4/2016 10:40:48 AM

Got wrecked by the APPL and NFLX earnings reports.

5/4/2016 8:02:29 PM

I think I'm just going to start chucking money into AMZN. It looks like they're getting closer and closer to really dominating the cloud storage market, they've done some smart things with prime, allowing the streaming service to be sold separately, and eventually they're going to get to or at least close to a break even point on their retail business. I also like what they're doing with the foray into connected home stuff with the echo.

I don't see a lot of downside for them unless they make some big misstep and try to make a big push into a segment they have no business getting into (ie , sink a bunch of money into their cell phone or try to start delivering perishable groceries without the necessary infrastructure).

5/5/2016 3:56:03 AM

AMZN is building out a fleet of cargo plans to reduce shipping inefficiencies. Not sure if that meets your criteria but it could be a potential money pit. Havent seen any data on fleet size or maintenance contracts so it could be a drop in the bucket.

5/5/2016 4:49:17 PM

Eh, cargo planes or airships could actually be beneficial for delivery to rural areas.

That's going to be pretty low cost vs. Building out additional distribution centers for places that don't really necessitate them based on demand.

5/5/2016 10:11:43 PM

What about GPRO?

5/6/2016 12:05:41 AM

Pass, for all the same reasons I didn' like it last year either. I still don't see much potential to grow their market. Unless they start expanding I think they've hit the limit as far as what their core business can be.

If you want a Go Pro you have one already. At this point they're just going to have more competition in their core business and I haven't seen anything indicating that they have plans to do something new.

OK, just read about their losses and delaying the drone launch. Yeah, still a big no thanks on Go Pro.

[Edited on May 6, 2016 at 1:11 AM. Reason : Fggh]

5/6/2016 12:42:23 AM

$TWTR - thoughts? I'm tempted to dip into it right now. Even though recent earnings were not great, they still added users. I have fears about them bleeding users, but I don't know what really replaces what it does. It's still the best platform for real time aggregation, a great participatory social media platform (it's amazing to be on during sporting events, award shows, etc.) and it's easy as hell to monetize, I mean ads are easily integrated so I don't worry about that.

Stagnation worries me a bit, they really have pissed off a lot of users with this public safety stassi board they have, the shift from timeline to algorithmic display is not great, but I don't see anything taking its place. Periscope is pretty cool even though its inferior to facebook live, but it did fill a gap even if it came a year too late.

I don't know, I'm thinking about dipping in since it's sitting around $14 right now. I could see an easy run up to $20 if it can show continued user growth the next couple quarters and with this insane election cycle I think that's almost a lock.

5/16/2016 5:27:25 AM

gg TGT

5/18/2016 9:55:51 AM

Quote :

"It's going to take back to back great quarters couple with positive stories about China and India or some insane growth in services to get this stock above 120 and I'll eat my hat if it gets to your 130 by January."

10/26/2016 9:30:14 PM

Kurtis...right on TWTR, wrong on GPRO.

10/27/2016 10:25:22 PM

Yup. I still have no interest in go pro though. Amazon is a pretty obvious buy on Monday.

10/30/2016 11:46:03 AM

What is the sentiment on FNMA and FMCC? Is it a risky investment or path to retirement?

My understanding is that government initiated conservatorship in 2012 by infusing $$$ otherwise FNMA/FMCC would have gone bankrupt, and the share price tanked at that time due to this.

On the other hand, investors argue that FNMA/FMCC would have been fine without government intervention, and are profitable now and government should release them now, hence the pending lawsuits. Share price would skyrocket.

I don't know which side is right or wrong now what the outcome will be, but assuming investors win and the share price skyrockets, shouldn't only investors who lost $$ pre-2012 be able to recoup, not the investors coming in post-2012 or now purchasing at $1.xx looking for a quick path to retirement?

I post this because my brother keeps rubbing in my face that lawsuit will win out and he'll retire next year comfortably.

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 12:31 PM. Reason : k]

11/1/2016 12:28:18 PM

^ hey weren't you and ejpaolan or whatever his name was gonna retire by 30? how'd that work out?



Long story short, your brother has no knowledge that isn't publicly available and investing based on this court case is at best a coin flip.

11/1/2016 1:17:42 PM

Quote :

"^ hey weren't you and ejpaolan or whatever his name was gonna retire by 30? how'd that work out? "

not me, i've never posted anything concerning stocks before this

Quote :

"Long story short, your brother has no knowledge that isn't publicly available and investing based on this court case is at best a coin flip."

and what is your best guess at how the coin will land?

[Edited on November 1, 2016 at 2:27 PM. Reason : k]

11/1/2016 2:27:27 PM

Anyone buying BABA before singles day? Also, is anyone planning on shorting the Dow/S&P, or any major index fund anytime in the future?

11/1/2016 4:22:01 PM

No but I may dump it.

[Edited on November 2, 2016 at 2:49 PM. Reason : ]

11/2/2016 2:48:13 PM

All in on TVIX for the next 2 days before the election?

11/4/2016 10:41:43 AM

Freed up some cash last week. Looking to buy in to whatever sector gets hit hardest after Tuesday.

11/7/2016 10:19:28 AM

Oddly, I have no idea what sector that would be assuming a Hillary win.

11/7/2016 7:12:43 PM

I'm about 70% cash right now waiting for the same thing

11/7/2016 8:47:06 PM

Biopharm would be my guess.

[Edited on November 7, 2016 at 11:20 PM. Reason : a]

11/7/2016 11:20:17 PM

Shit, def not close to 70% cash, but wanted some to play with.

11/8/2016 12:52:52 AM

get ready to buy tomorrow.

11/8/2016 11:04:17 PM

Might as well shove everything into index funds at this point.

11/8/2016 11:29:36 PM

Ready to buy tomorrow - looking like it was a good idea to be liquid and ready

11/8/2016 11:41:44 PM

Awesome time to be rolling my old 401k into an IRA. So glad I waited until the election.

11/9/2016 2:50:50 AM

Doesn't look too crazy...

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

11/9/2016 8:20:45 AM

Quiet so far. A few biotechs who were facing regulations/price inquiries have popped (ARIA for one), but overall is a muted response.

11/9/2016 9:48:21 AM

Well after an unexpected night thats a pretty unexpected open of the market as well haha

11/9/2016 9:58:30 AM

Haha prison stocks are soaring. I guess they expect Trump will reverse the federal ban on private prisons?

[Edited on November 9, 2016 at 10:27 AM. Reason : a]

11/9/2016 10:10:12 AM

Gotta put all those criminals and rapists and immigrants somewhere until we can deport them all right?

11/9/2016 10:25:48 AM

hi guys.. been a while

11/16/2016 6:18:16 PM

That FNMA play is looking good right now

11/30/2016 1:53:36 PM

So this year I determined I need to get away from mutual funds after doing otherwise very logical reasons for pretty much ever. With three kids and a limited ability to get more cash in I am willing to take more risk to juice the returns.

I've gotten comfortable with the buying (I've started 5 positions this year), but selling is a new idea to me. I missed out on a little bit with my very first position (SLW@$13 into the high $20s) because I hesitated on the short term gain taxes when I really should have jumped out when it touched $30 so I'm not letting that drive future decisions.

UAL is my current quandary. Anybody else along for the ride? I bought at $45 and since they are delivering on all their promises to beat their metrics for Q3 they made on the investor day with the news coming out I think it's still got a little room. I was thinking $80 is the real wait and see price where it might land, but I haven't built a model to work it out targets yet since what I've bought has thankfully done well I'm just in let it ride mode (lazy?). I don't always agree with analyst sentiment (it's a little over their target now). How do you all decide? Set a price going in and don't look back if you hit it? Go if you see a better option? I haven't been much into reducing a position and have just been thinking about all in all out moves given my motivation for going with individual stocks.

Also, any hot tips? Still have cash to add one more position and will probably sell out of one or two early Q1 assuming the actual change of administration doesn't cause panic so I need some stuff to research.

[Edited on December 9, 2016 at 4:37 PM. Reason : gg]

12/9/2016 4:35:36 PM

Any hot (legal) tips are going to be based on info already available therefor already priced in.
Getting away from mutual funds is most certainly a poor decision especially if you're basing it on your inability to get more cash.
I started buying stocks because I had excess cash to play with, not the other way around.

That being said, how big are these positions of yours? You'd need to make some pretty decent gains to offset fees, short term capital gains, and losses from other positions. I'm not a big fan of airlines. I prefer tech and finance after that, but mostly because that's the industry in which I presently work. The last few positions I sold were under performing and something else came along I wanted to buy into so that's what caused me to pull the trigger in that scenario. Alternatively, sometimes if I'm interested in something I'll but a little making sure I have excess cash to buy additional shares if the stock were to go down.

12/10/2016 9:40:51 PM

Yesh, stock picking is really fucking hard. I don't mess with it very much anymore outside of a few positions which I actually know a fair amount about. If you don't have the time or inclination to do the necessary research you're almost always better off eating a few fees which will be more than offset by better long term ROI.

Now, if you're an expert in a given field and you know and can legally trade in said field then by all means go for it if you're confident you can do better than an index fund or a sector fund.

12/10/2016 9:54:25 PM

Anyone heard of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals?

It was, at one time, developing a pretty effective drug to treat Hep B.

Looked promising, so in May I purchased 80 shares (~$450).

Well, last month, the FDA put a hold on the drug because of concerns. As it turns out, "Arrowhead made false and misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (1) its drug candidate ARC-520 was fatal at certain doses; (2) the U.S. Food & Drug Administration was unlikely to approve ARC-520 as a hepatitis B treatment; (3) the Company overstated the approval prospects and commercial viability of ARC-520; and (4) as a result of the above, Arrowhead's public statements were materially false and misleading at all relevant times."

So the stock, naturally, is plummeting.

Here's the question: a TON of law offices have opened class-action lawsuits based on the above accusations to assist investors in getting their money back.

I want to get my money back from these d-bags, but have not had a lawyer before and am unsure if I'm going to get dragged into some scam if I sign up as a plaintiff.

Any help?

12/12/2016 7:40:25 PM

for $450? do those lawsuits have minimums or they just take everyone?

12/12/2016 9:08:26 PM

Ahahaha. I assumed he meant $450 a share. $450 total makes way more sense and isn't worth the time.

12/12/2016 11:16:41 PM

Total.

Looked into it more, and I'm just going to take the loss.

12/13/2016 6:04:09 AM

Class action means they take everyone. If you're part of it, and they win, you get your share of what's awarded (or settled upon), whatever that is. Prob won't be the full 450...but you don't have to do much of anything.

12/13/2016 6:33:30 AM

This happens a lot with start up pharma type companies. High risk high reward but its likely you get burned a few times. Just be glad it was only $450.

12/13/2016 8:05:32 AM

Speaking of cutting edge Pharma (and biotech), has anyone looked into or invested into CRISPR? This is setting up to be a HUGE game changer in treatment of diseases. But it is so early now, and no one has any real reliable data to show.

12/13/2016 12:04:10 PM

^ HUGE gamechanger, im in EDIT and NTLA. Id like to be in even more.

12/13/2016 9:43:31 PM

Would live to be involved in it. CRISPR and 3d printing are probably the two most important technologies of the last couple decades. CRISPR is going to be a tough one to get in on early. The regulation on use and testing will be crippling. I have a feeling once it's totally available it'll be industry wide. I don't see anybody profiting hugely off of it compared to industry wide gains but I may be way off base.

12/14/2016 12:15:30 AM

drtaylor The next time ATT (T) dips to $39 a share buy a ton and hold on to it forever and enjoy the 5% dividend. If you are willing to take a little more risk look into MEET. It is a small cap projected to go up 50% in the next year or so. I am long on T and short on MEET.

What kind of analysis do you guys do before you make a pick? Fundamental, Technical, or whatever your gut says based on the news?

I personally look at the fundamentals.

[Edited on December 14, 2016 at 9:13 AM. Reason : .]

12/14/2016 9:10:31 AM

Depends on what I'm doing. If I plan on turning around a stock in the short term I'll look at technicals. I don't do a lot of short term trading anymore unless there's a very good reason to. If I intend to hold it for the long term retirement income or long term growth I'll look mostly at fundamentals or dividend history.

12/14/2016 1:52:20 PM