13

4/10/2020 8:53:00 AM

From an economic standpoint it would be extraordinary if Trump were to win. No president has ever won re-election with what unemployment and GDP growth as it will be. Obama in 2012 went against things in that respect too, but the economy was obviously on an upward trajectory.

That’s not to say Trump can’t win but I think a lot of 2016-fatigue and confirmation bias is at play here. Most economic models actually predicted a Trump win in 2016 and they aren’t in 2020.

4/10/2020 9:15:09 AM

It ends either if we vote him out and US Marshals actually force him to leave the White House on inauguration day or he becomes a true dictator in which case it's no longer an administration.

[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 10:11 AM. Reason : a]

4/10/2020 10:10:52 AM

I'm still 9, 11, 13, 14.

I believe Trump will lose, but a win is not unlikely (though less than 2016). Given an electoral loss, I expect Trump to throw lawsuits at the courts continuously between November 4, 2020 and January 20, 2021.

I'm still concerned about violence, particularly if Trump wins (though not civil war level violence or scenarios 12 & 16 where the election is decided extralegally).

4/10/2020 11:12:35 AM

why would there be violence if trump wins (undisputed)??

4/10/2020 1:44:44 PM

because trump fans are sore winners and assholes (allegedly)

4/10/2020 3:18:10 PM

IMHO:

If Trump loses, I expect he'll spend his two-and-a-half months as a lame duck filing lawsuits, spreading voter fraud conspiracy theories, and being an all around bitter, vindictive, destructive person. Some of the deadenders will follow his lead and we'll see lone wolf attacks.

If Trump wins, it will be similar to 2016: an Electoral College victory built on a handful of votes in a handful precincts in a handful of states. He will not win the popular vote and he will not have a popular mandate. There will be mass protests and I expect some to turn violent.

I think the possibility of violence is greater if Trump wins.

4/10/2020 5:05:32 PM

Quote :

"If Trump loses, I expect he'll spend his two-and-a-half months as a lame duck filing lawsuits, spreading voter fraud conspiracy theories, and being an all around bitter, vindictive, destructive person. Some of the deadenders will follow his lead and we'll see lone wolf attacks. "

Almost scary how accurate that could turn out to be.

4/10/2020 6:04:15 PM

Quote :

"9 and 13 are the only realistic options remaining"

Disputed win or loss are definitely still possible

4/10/2020 6:40:07 PM

Quote :

" spreading voter fraud conspiracy theories, and being an all around bitter, vindictive, destructive person"

already covered those for a long time now

4/10/2020 7:14:34 PM

And that was when he won,so imagine if he loses.

4/10/2020 7:18:38 PM

Yup.

4/10/2020 7:40:22 PM

Anyone care to update their answer?

6/2/2020 12:32:54 AM

Shit, looks like you gotta add a new category: Plunges the country into civil war

6/2/2020 5:39:06 PM

It happens either this year on election day, or election day 4 years later. It's funny how I watched my Republican friends say how Obama is racist. Now my Democrat friends say Trump is racist. About every 8 years there is a party change at the White House and that isn't a bad thing. The 25th doesn't need to be used. No matter who is in office about 50% of America will dislike them because they cheer for the other team.

6/2/2020 6:15:48 PM

More than 50%, actually, since a majority didn't even vote, nevermind for this particular candidate.

6/2/2020 6:25:05 PM

^1. Not voting for someone does not imply you dislike them.
2. Your claim is not backed up by actual statistics. It's not at all hard to find recent presidents with approval ratings >50%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Indeed, Trump is the only president listed there (going back to Truman) who has never had a period of >50% approval.

6/2/2020 6:34:54 PM

Quote :

"Anyone care to update their answer?"

Nope

6/2/2020 8:32:33 PM

What about:

Loses the election (assuming we have one): undisputed loss, but refuses to vacate office, violence carried out by combo of police/ICE/Homeland Security/Sympathetic military personnel/Rightwing-militias against protestors. Increasing violence blamed on a growing left. Opportunistic General or Defense Secretary orchestrates a military coup to restore order and protect private property. Installs "interim government." Democracy officially dead, but capitalism ultimately saved.

6/4/2020 4:47:50 AM

thoughts? https://twitter.com/blakesmustache/status/1268535418137595905

6/4/2020 12:37:02 PM

6/4/2020 1:19:57 PM

^^I was following along till it called Richard Burr a hero. To convince me of that is gonna take some major receipts.

The other thing, and please someone correct me if you think I’m wrong, is that counter-intelligence investigations don’t often result in arrest, do they? A CI investigation doesn’t always follow proper evidence collection such that evidence can be used in proceedings. So it won’t be a criminal proceeding, but The court of public opinion is supposed to sink Trump? This prediction is counting on a congressional report to show close enough links between Russia-Trump to actually end his presidency? I don’t see it.

[Edited on June 4, 2020 at 1:23 PM. Reason : Arrows]

6/4/2020 1:23:24 PM

CI investigations are primarily about determining what an enemy is doing, what impact it's having, whether US nationals are involved and whether criminal charges should be brought, and brought in a manner that would do more good than bad. A lot of them never result in charges and rather expose information that is then used to implement methods to disrupt or pass along disinformation. Sometimes they're used to turn the target/s into double agents as well.

Regarding evidence collection it's done so in a normal manner. The question is always whether the government wants to present that evidence publicly in court.

Some, the very serious ones like Hansen or Ames result in prosecution. There's actually a pretty good miniseries that ends with a documentary on Ames' case, called The Assets. Based on a book called Circle of Treason.

Far too soon to speculate but for the sake of argument, if the CI investigation resulted in evidence against one or more people associated with Trump, including Trump himself, he could be impeached again and/or tried as a private citizen after either resigning or after losing the election and leaving office on inauguration day. I tend to think this is unlikely at this point but it is possible.

The Twitter thread was an intriguing read but just implies a level of planning and organization I have trouble believing happened, not to mention the level of secrecy required for something of this scale/magnitude.

Also, I don't trust people that write fucking paragraphs in strings of posts on things like Twitter....

[Edited on June 5, 2020 at 1:10 AM. Reason : a]

6/5/2020 1:04:01 AM

11, 12, 14, or 16 guaranteed

6/5/2020 1:55:24 AM

I just rank ordered my estimates instead.

13) Wins the election: undisputed win
11) Loses the election: disputed loss, loses the office
14) Wins the election: disputed win, retains the office
10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office
12) Loses the election: disputed loss, violence
16) Wins the election: disputed win, violence
9) Loses the election: undisputed loss, peaceful transfer of power
15) Wins the election: disputed win, loses the office
7) Isn't the nominee: primaried
8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans
4) Doesn't finish the term: dies of natural causes
3) Doesn't finish the term: impeached, convicted, removed
2) Doesn't finish the term: 25th amendment
1) Doesn't finish the term: resigns
5) Doesn't finish the term: dies of unnatural causes
6) Isn't the nominee: declines to run

6/5/2020 2:00:27 PM

so I came back to look at that tweet I posted to see what if anything that dude has been talking about since, as I wasn't really familiar with the account and wasn't sure its reputation/reliability. 6 year old account with 100k+ followers, looks like he started getting personal threats and has now deleted his account. i still don't know what to make of the whole theory, but interesting regardless

6/7/2020 7:20:34 AM

^ what did the tweet say? i missed it.

6/7/2020 11:28:49 AM

Trump doesn't wiggle out of jams, his base just doesn't hold him accountable.

6/7/2020 12:20:19 PM

^^TLDR - Volume 5 of the SSCI Russia Investigation will focus on the counterintelligence investigations which are/were until recently still ongoing and that it'll take Trump down hence he's crazy acting as of late.


[Edited on June 7, 2020 at 12:21 PM. Reason : a]

6/7/2020 12:20:41 PM

1) Doesn't finish the term: resigns
2) Doesn't finish the term: 25th amendment
3) Doesn't finish the term: impeached, convicted, removed
4) Doesn't finish the term: dies of natural causes
5) Doesn't finish the term: dies of unnatural causes

6) Isn't the nominee: declines to run
7) Isn't the nominee: primaried
8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans

9) Loses the election: undisputed loss, peaceful transfer of power
10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office
11) Loses the election: disputed loss, loses the office
12) Loses the election: disputed loss, violence

13) Wins the election: undisputed win
14) Wins the election: disputed win, retains the office
15) Wins the election: disputed win, loses the office
16) Wins the election: disputed win, violence

#12 is looking more and more likely every day.

6/21/2020 3:14:42 PM

Odds gotta be low atm for 13+

6/21/2020 4:14:55 PM

I think the smart money is on 9, with a lot of posturing and wild statements between the election and January 20th. Then when he just does the traditional thing, trump is lauded as if he were a normal president.

6/21/2020 4:49:17 PM

so basically #11

6/22/2020 10:16:44 AM

9? 11? 9 + 11 = 9/11, an inside job?!?!? President Trump will lose the election due to an inside job of Deep State loyalists?

Do the research. Follow the money.

6/22/2020 2:26:22 PM

Anyone here subscribing to the idea Trump will resign because of shitty polling?

I can't see it happening.

6/29/2020 6:11:05 PM

I can’t either

6/29/2020 7:53:01 PM

Can we add an option where he basically just throws it. Like starts yelling at the RNC for not supporting and throwing out conspiracy theories.

I don't see him resigning but he could just stop caring (more than he already doesn't care)

6/29/2020 8:00:55 PM

Cohen is in jail for crimes he committed with trump. I think it’s under appreciated that trump sees reelection as his only way of avoiding jail and will therefore attempt anything to get re-elected. When trump talks about vote harvesting this is his way of instructing his minions to try to vote harvest for him.

6/29/2020 10:25:56 PM

^^ Like...what he's done for, like a decade? For his entire time as President, as a Presidential (albeit unpresidential) candidate, and for several years before that?

6/29/2020 10:49:56 PM

^^ I could see him losing in November, throwing a shit fit on Twitter, then, at the advice of counsel, resigning and receiving a pardon at the tail end of Pence’s 3 month presidency.

6/29/2020 10:54:15 PM

At this point, we can throw out any notion of an undisputed outcome. States and election officials are all telling us the same thing: we're not gonna know who won until several days or weeks after the election. And during that time, both sides are going to go nuts contesting the results in every possible swing state.

One plausible exception, but still a stretch, would be one in which Trump reaches out to the Biden campaign and essentially agrees to concede if Biden agrees that his administration will not pursue prosecutions of the Trump family. Even then, though, I feel like local supporters would file challenges in their respective states, either out of fanatical loyalty to MAGA or because they know they've shackled themselves so tightly to Trump that they're screwed when he leaves.

6/30/2020 8:37:39 AM

State of NY has plenty on Trump of I remember correctly

6/30/2020 10:21:04 AM

I don't see a deal like that happening. There are huge unknowns about what's actually been happening the last four years, Biden can't speak for the states, the Democratic base would be furious, enough knives will be out that Biden may not be able to prevent his own administration from pursuing prosecutions, Trump can't be trusted to honor a commitment, the deal isn't one-sided enough to appeal to Trump, no guarantees Trump won't shit on the Oval Office rug on the way out the door, ...

I didn't give disputed/undisputed the nuance it deserves. Trump will dispute the results no matter what happens, but at some point it moves from his normal level of complaints and threats to something more substantial.

6/30/2020 12:40:19 PM

I doubt we ever see any former President go to prison

6/30/2020 12:51:37 PM

^yea, as much as he undoubtedly deserves to go to prison, he wont.

the best we could hope for is jr probably. but even that wont happen.

6/30/2020 1:14:33 PM

Quote :

"Trump reaches out to the Biden campaign and essentially agrees to concede if Biden agrees that his administration will not pursue prosecutions of the Trump family"

Whether or not it's tied to the election, I think some sort of agreement to not pursue prosecutions is a very likely scenario. And I'll guarantee they agree to it because everyone will make the argument "the country needs to heal and move forward." It was the same bullshit for Nixon. And it's absolutely infuriating.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/for-months-trump-allies-hunted-for-tapes-of-biden-in-ukraine-now-theyre-turning-up/2020/06/30/f3aeaba8-a67b-11ea-8681-7d471bf20207_story.html

Already shaping up to be an incredibly fucked up election season.

[Edited on June 30, 2020 at 2:21 PM. Reason : a]

6/30/2020 2:18:48 PM

Obama/Bush too

6/30/2020 2:32:27 PM

trump is probably the most experienced person in the world at not going to prison. he has enough money to easily tie up anything until he dies of old age / hamberders.

[Edited on June 30, 2020 at 2:42 PM. Reason : .]

6/30/2020 2:39:07 PM

SDNY could absolutely take him but that presumes a post-Trump presidency that doesn't try to "reconcile America" by telling them not to prosecute him.

Also presumes Trump has actually committed crimes which, while I believe it to be 100% true, still requires actual evidence and trials to prove it.

6/30/2020 3:22:07 PM

Oh, the irony.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jul/14/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-might-not-go-quietly-/

[Edited on July 14, 2020 at 6:02 PM. Reason : Couldn't find the "how does the Clinton campaign end" thread]

7/14/2020 6:01:14 PM