Quote :

"What I believe the “real” Vance to be would be awesome. But if you’ll abandon any principle at any time for convenience, it doesn’t matter what your real beliefs are."

I agree in terms of how I would assess someone's overall strength of character, but at the same time if he could be notably less horrible in office, that would be a generally positive change.

3/18/2025 1:00:56 PM

It really doesn't matter as long as a million people like TGL have the ability to speak and type.

3/18/2025 3:43:46 PM

The Good Lord 13

3/18/2025 5:12:21 PM

^^I disagree that it doesn't matter if someone is less bad once they are in a position of greater power.

3/18/2025 7:00:46 PM

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/elections/this-is-why-kamala-harris-really-lost/ar-AA1B9iF3

I dont think they have enough time to "fix" this; even if they started tomorrow.

3/19/2025 9:04:45 AM

Quote :

"What I believe the “real” Vance to be would be awesome. But if you’ll abandon any principle at any time for convenience, it doesn’t matter what your real beliefs are."

Who Vance really is was quite well described in that piece from the 1930s, Who Goes Nazi

3/19/2025 10:48:59 PM

^^
Pretty wild. Lots of forces seemed to come together in a perfect storm— and Kamala still almost won

I think trends swing quickly though. There legitimately is data to show that young men are maybe facing systemic barriers— democrats as the party of data and science should be speaking to this. As an immigrant I can’t figure out what’s going on there but it’s probably the transgender issue. GOP (from North Carolina) data mined that as an issue that is broadly polarizing and they’re right. Democrats have to find a way to defend this minority without alienating people who are icked but ultimately will never have a negative interaction with a transgender person.

If they can fix those 2 things and then boost the pro union message as a firewall against AI and billionaires I think they’ll do well— assuming trump doesn’t do a martial law type thing.

3/19/2025 11:11:05 PM

Obama/Stewart 2028

3/20/2025 2:58:38 AM

I really don't think AOC runs. Whatever you think of her policies, she's clearly savvy and knowledgeable about politics. 2028 is too soon and she knows it, though I'm sure she plans to run later. She might try to replace Schumer, though.

Pritzker is probably best-positioned. Very effective speaker, good messaging, independently wealthy. Jewish but codes as a a big Midwestern guy, which I think blunts the inevitable anti-Semitism. As I understand it, the black community in Illinois like him a lot. Comes across as sincere. Most of all he clearly despises Trump and MAGA and I think that's gonna be an asset while "Let's just move on" is an attitude that won't fly.

I love Walz, who also is clearly looking at the job and has a lot of advantages that Pritzker does in terms of sincerity, messaging, and Midwestern relatability. He also has an edge with progressives based on some of his policies while still coming across as moderate. But he has the taint of defeat and looks older than he is, and im not sure he'll be able to bring himself to be as aggressive in the primaries as might be needed to win.

Buttigeig is probably gearing up for it, based on his announcement that he isn't running for Senate or governor in Michigan. I don't think he'd win the nomination. In my ideal outcome, the Dems would use their current chassis as an opportunity to reorganize and empower an actual party leader position, which buttigeig would be ideally suited for. He can go on every Sunday morning News program and attack Republicans/defend Democrats with much greater effect than I think he can running for president.

Newsom is a sleaze who will have no credibility and flame out early.

Harris might run again, which isn't my preferred choice but which I don't hate. She came close under extremely adverse circumstances, and still has a decent base of supporters.

Of course, all of this could be thrown in the air because the chaos is so great it confounds all efforts to forecast - even more so than usual.

3/20/2025 9:30:56 AM

https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3lktnldcgzc2s

AOC trying her hand at a stump speech in Las Vegas

Kind of awkward delivery… not as eloquent as her instagram videos. Definitely a new and different skill set for her

3/20/2025 6:27:42 PM

?? New - 2028 Primary

?? Harris 36%
?? Buttigieg 10%
?? AOC 5%
?? Newsom 5%
?? Cuban 4%
?? Shapiro 4%
?? Booker 3%

Morning Consult #B - 3/16

3/20/2025 8:03:52 PM

No stephen a smith?

3/20/2025 8:05:34 PM

Can we get Obama polling for when the republican try to revoke the 22nd?

3/20/2025 8:09:46 PM

Maybe Schwarzenegger can run since I'm sure they'll try and lift the natural born citizen requirement to get Musk on the ticket

3/20/2025 8:23:18 PM

Quote :

"In January 2025, Representative Andy Ogles introduced a joint resolution proposing a constitutional amendment that would allow a president to serve a third term, provided that their first two are non-consecutive. The language of the bill was intended to specifically allow incumbent President Donald Trump to serve a third term, as he is the only living president to serve non-consecutive terms."

3/20/2025 8:24:13 PM

there is zero reason to post any polling about potential 2028 candidates in March of 2025

3/20/2025 8:24:58 PM

^

3/20/2025 10:15:50 PM

^^for you maybe. Everyone else in the thread disagrees it seems.

3/20/2025 10:54:34 PM

there’s a big difference between discussing possible candidates and citing polling nearly 4 years away from the election

3/20/2025 11:46:01 PM

So what?

3/20/2025 11:54:25 PM

because polling reflects a specific moment in time and there are tons of events that will occur between now and the primaries that will render polling this far out meaningless

it’s why politicians like Beto O’Rourke came and went well before primaries started

3/21/2025 12:09:09 AM

https://bsky.app/profile/acyn.bsky.social/post/3lkucsnfcq22x

^ it shows who ~normies are seeing and hearing is all

Democrats need to propose a 3rd term bill but only applies to candidates that got at least 50% of the vote

3/21/2025 12:23:12 AM

it’s tough to find polling from either 2005 or 2013, but I’d be willing to bet that the names Obama or Trump would not show up

3/21/2025 12:26:46 AM

tww doesn't have to be in MLA format

3/21/2025 1:24:04 AM

AOC's voice is too grating to win a national election. Sounds like nose talking. However, I haven't noticed it so much in interviews. Might be just her trying to project at a rally. Didn't work.

3/21/2025 7:28:35 AM

^^^i found one with just one Google, Obama isn't there but so what?
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/HC050308.pdf

Quote :

"polling reflects a specific moment in time "

Quote :

"polling this far out meaningless"

The start of this sentence contradicts the end

This thread isn't a betting market it's a discussion. Polling is a good marker for that discussion.

3/21/2025 7:39:37 AM

Shit obamas name was prob mentioned in 2004 like 1 minute after his speech at the convention

3/21/2025 8:36:51 AM

^^^
Has a Fran Drescher sound but if she embraces it and jokes about it I think she can overcome

3/21/2025 10:08:06 AM

Quote :

"AOC: We expected 2,000 people out in GOP-held Greeley, Colorado. 11,000 people showed up. Something special is happening, folks. Now is the time to organize in every dimension possible and get to work. "

https://bsky.app/profile/aoc.bsky.social/post/3lkw5ii4g5c24

3/21/2025 5:32:54 PM

She’s evolving

https://bsky.app/profile/keithedwards.bsky.social/post/3lkwv3y42zs2p

3/22/2025 1:21:57 AM

Some signs of life in the electorate— were not taking musks brand of Nazism quietly

Quote :

"AOC: Tonight an unbelievable **34,000 people** gathered for our Denver rally to take on billionaires and win our country back. This was the largest political gathering in Denver since Obama in 2008. Also bigger than the 2024 DNC. And the largest ever rally in Bernie’s career (and obviously, mine too). "

3/22/2025 6:30:24 PM

I think it's high time for the Democrats to use the same invective rhetoric that was used to beat them

"take our country back" is exactly the right message

3/28/2025 9:30:12 AM