0 chance rivera has any idea what is going on

10/7/2012 6:54:38 PM

WELP

10/7/2012 6:55:05 PM

Cam's broken

10/7/2012 6:55:21 PM

so much for being an up and coming team

10/7/2012 6:55:44 PM

we should have taken bruce irvin instead of linebacker #600

10/7/2012 6:56:04 PM

lol

10/7/2012 6:56:06 PM

can this team ever cover a spread?

10/7/2012 6:57:33 PM

I'm burning my Barry Foster jersey. Enough is enough.

10/7/2012 7:00:59 PM

This is not cam newtons fault

He didn't destroy this.

10/7/2012 7:06:10 PM

bed shittingest team to ever shit the bed

10/7/2012 7:06:42 PM

We are the ugliest, most boring team to watch in the league. I mean, it's really painful to just sit and watch this team play

10/7/2012 7:56:58 PM

meh

just a below-average team

fun to watch when they're firing on all cylinders

meh if they're not

10/7/2012 8:43:32 PM

Just got back from the game

What the hell was that 4th and 1 play at the goalline

10/7/2012 9:41:45 PM

10/7/2012 10:01:10 PM

Last year great offense with most effective running game in the past 25 years. This year can't run AT ALL. I don't get it.

10/7/2012 10:37:19 PM

Just watched highlights...what the fuck happened on that throw into the endzone?? Did it slip out of his hands or something? That's one of the worst tosses I've ever seen.

10/7/2012 11:49:38 PM

reminded me of a similar play early in the Auburn/Oregon NC game but with a wide open Auburn receiver in the left side of the endzone where Cam threw a pass at his feet

course they won that game, and it wasn't in the clutch

10/7/2012 11:55:34 PM

Fell asleep early, woke up early. Can't sleep, must analyze Cam Newton. A little lengthy but interesting if you like football analysis and you have a basic grasp of statistics (treetwista you can stop reading here) and you just want to know what the hell is wrong with Cam Newton and the Panthers offense so far this year.

Okay seriously, what's going on with Cam?

I looked at some data comparing this year's offense to last year's to see what the biggest differences are. The personnel is almost exactly the same as last year so it's clearly either a significant drop-off in play or poor scheming (or most likely a lot of both). In the NFL offensive efficiency has been measured to be remarkably consistent from year to year assuming the QB of the team does not change (this should be intuitive, think Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, etc or on the opposite end of the spectrum Jamarcus Russell, Mark Sanchez, and various washed up QB's near the end of their career). So to be clear, this sudden decline in offensive efficiency is not typical for a team returning their starting QB.

Most of the uncreative explanations you'll hear in the media ("Sophomore Slump", "It's his attitude look at him sulking", etc) really have no merit. Pretty much all research studies suggest that "Chemistry" is nothing more than a phenomenon perpetuated by the sports media to assign a reason for a team overachieving or underachieving the expectations that the media assigned to them before the season. It couldn't possibly be that the media inaccurately assessed a team's strengths and weaknesses or a player's natural improvement or decline. Often, the unexpected results can be explained by just random statistical noise and variability but that headline isn't going to attract many readers. "Panthers fall again, outcome of the game can likely be attributed to statistical noise." No, this is where some self-important editor who got cut from his middle school team writes an opinion piece blasting the QB for putting a towel on his head before halftime or telling an off color joke at practice on Thursday that didn't go over well with the Right Tackle.

Example of statistical noise: The Baltimore Orioles finished the season 24 games above .500 despite only scoring 7 more total runs than their opponents. Take a look at the MLB standings and how every other team's final record correlates with their run differential for the season. Now ask yourself if Baltimore is the only team in the league who possesses this magical chemistry, and if you feel confident that they'll win 93 games again next year with the same roster.

In the current era of the NFL, QB is clearly by far the most important position on the field and analysis has estimated that a top QB may be worth up to an additional 4 wins per season over an average QB. In other words, if the Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders had the exact same level of 8-8 talent at all other positions last year, Green Bay would have an expected value of 12 wins with Rodgers, while the Raiders would only win 8 games with an average QB like Carson Palmer. So any time a team is struggling to meet expectations, particularly on offense, it's probably a good idea to start by looking at the QB.

*Just as a side note, by comparison defenses (particularly rushing defenses for some reason) tend to exhibit much more fluctuation from season to season, while special teams units tend to regress to the mean (good special teams units become more average the following year while bad special teams units also become more average).

Cam only really had one BAD game last year and that was against the Titans where he couldn't do anything right. Easy to chalk that game up as a fluke, everyone has an occasional bad game in the NFL. But after five games he's already had THREE absolute stinkers vs Tampa, NYG, and the worst one yet this week vs Seattle. Seattle is right up there defensively with anyone (except Chicago who's on their own right now) so an off game against them is defensible but NYG and Tampa's defense have both looked average thus far. Plus, today's offensive performance prior to the 4th quarter was shaping up to be as ugly as just about anything we did in 2010 with Clausen and Co.

10/8/2012 6:51:59 AM

So first let's look at what raw statistics are the best predictors of an efficient and effective offense. Is it just total yardage as the NFL would have you believe based on its method for ranking offenses and defenses? Scoring? Turnovers and red zone efficiency? How can we know what's responsible for the offense struggling as a whole if we don't really know which measures of offensive efficiency are the most important?

Raw data alone is simply not capable of explaining offensive efficiency with any reliability. A high scoring or high yardage offense could be the function of a terrible defense that results in games with higher pass play ratios. Is an offense who uses two possessions and moves the ball 30 yards each time before punting equally as effective as an offense who scores a 60 yard TD on one possession and gains 0 yards on the next possession? What if instead of gaining no yards they throw a pick six instead?

Last year Cam was an absolute monster as a rookie QB on the two most important types of plays in football:

1) On third down attempts he was amazing at getting conversions by buying time scrambling and giving a receiver time to get open or by running for the first down using his size/speed to seemingly always reach the marker.

2) Instantly, we were one of the most effective offenses in the league inside the red zone thanks to his ability to bulldoze in short yardage situations and freeze the defense from mindlessly run blitzing up the middle because they were scared he would keep it and bounce outside if he sensed the linebackers cheating to the inside. We finished the season ranked 4th in TD's per drive behind only GB, NO, and NE.


Okay, so let's see how well we are moving the ball down the field. Picking up yards is usually a prerequisite for scoring on each individual drive so naturally a failure to execute sustained drives is usually an indicator of a bad offense. But how important is this relative to other metrics?

Well statistically, if you look at the top ~2/3rd offenses (throwing out the dysfunctional offenses) they are a LOT closer in average yards per drive than you might assume. This is a function of the relative ease in picking up yards outside of the red zone for a competent offense. Moving the football outside of the red zone is predominantly just taking what the defense gives you and not committing penalties, blowing blocking assignments, making inaccurate throws, or dropping passes. Teams that can't move the ball effectively outside of the red zone almost always have a TERRIBLE QB, absolutely no weapons on offense, or a patchwork offensive line containing waiver wire fodder and injury replacements that isn't truly an NFL level unit. The data suggests that unless you are an incompetent offense that the ability to move the ball outside of the red zone isn't typically a good indicator of your offensive efficiency, and therefore total yards is a poor metric to use to rank offenses.

Why are total yards so much more insignificant than they used to be?
It's not 1992 where only a few teams have a talented QB and they just try to conservatively score 20 points while you punt for most of the game. You don't see many relentless blitzing and aggressive defenses like you did in the 1980's and 90's who were striving to force a 3&out so they could win the field position battle. As offensive as the game has become, field position is significantly less important than it was 15-20 years ago. The majority of defenses are super passive outside the red zone because there are so many playmaker WR's and good/great QB's who will torch them for big plays if they get aggressive when there is so much field to cover. Their goal is to try to force you to pick up at least 4-5 first downs on short plays in order to score because it increases the chances that you make a drive killing mistake along the way. I could have just as easily said "In 1992, 3,000 yards passing was considered a noteworthy achievement for a QB. In 2012, it means your team badly needs a new QB."

Heading into this week the Panthers were averaging 35.3 yards per drive (9th overall). Last year we averaged 35.1 yards per drive (6th overall). Based on that data alone nothing negative stands out with regards to our playcalling and schemes, or identifies us as having an incompetent offensive line or QB.


Alright, so we're moving the ball at roughly the same clip, so we must not be scoring TD's in the red zone, right?

10/8/2012 6:52:34 AM

The difference between an offense who can convert drives to TD's and one that settles for a lot of FG's is absolutely huge in the NFL because there are so many fewer total scoring opportunities than in the college game due to significantly better defenses/special teams and lengthier drives (less big strike plays). In fact the teams with the most "red zone opportunities" last year only averaged about 1.4 more per game than an average offense did, and 1 more per game than a team in the top ten in red zone opportunities. Now, over the course of a season just getting those extra opportunities is huge for your total offense, but in an individual game it's more important what is done with those specific opportunities.

A lot of fans (and most coaches) do not properly evaluate decisions in the red zone and ignore the fact that a TD+XP early in the game is equivalent to 2.3 Field Goals. Some teams are guilty of switching to ultra conservative playcalling ("Let's be careful we don't want a turnover here") while other teams always elect to kick on 4th and short near the goalline ("Always take the points!"). With the average game having only a handful of scoring drives and it being nearly impossible to consistently get twice (let alone 2.3x) as many scoring opportunities against a decent opponent, a ton of games each week simply come down to TD conversion ratio. This should be an obvious point, but when announcers discuss "Red Zone scoring" they usually focus on how OFTEN a team scores any points for some reason, rather than the percentage of time they score a TD.

Well, going into the week we were actually converting a higher percentage of TD's in the red zone (61.5% vs 57.9% last year), so that isn't the issue either.


Okay, so we aren't struggling to move the ball down the field and we're actually doing better at punching the ball into the end zone once we get there. It's got to be those Cam Newton INT's, right?

Well, not really. Last year we had 0.097 Int's per drive. This year we have a slightly higher 0.119 Int's per drive but recall that Cam didn't throw any INT's today in countless possessions, so those numbers will be practically equal to last year's.


Okay, so it's not Cam Newton's INT's. It's not us not scoring TD's when we get in the red zone. And it's not us not being able to drive down to reach the red zone. If you check his DVOA score and QB rating or near the same as last year. Our team passing DVOA is actually a bit higher this season. His completion % is down a point, but his yards per attempt is up nearly a full yard. In fact, before this week he was leading the NFL in yards per attempt.

So what the hell is different?

Well, a few things

1) For starters our average starting field position this year is the 22.7 yard line good for 31st in the league. Last year it was the 27.8 yard line, good for 18th in the league. Now I know I just said field position isn't as important as it used to be in this era, but 5 yards per DRIVE difference?! Arizona's average starting field position is past the 32 yard line, nearly a full ten yards ahead of ours. Considering most competent offenses in the league only average 30-35 yards per drive, I think I'd prefer the extra 10 yards PER DRIVE all else being equal if I was a team's starting QB. That has to be at least as important as a towel over Cam's head on the sideline, right? How about a headline that says "Cam Newton needs to create one extra first down every possession in order to get to where Kevin Kolb's average drive begins."

Let's consider the Giants game. Now I know this was a complete blow out and we didn't LOSE the game due to field position. But is it possible that our defense forcing only TWO punts (both downed inside the 20) and ZERO turnovers and allowing FIVE field goals and THREE touchdowns on which the ensuing kickoff was never returned past the 28 yard line... just MAYBE contributed to the lopsided result of that game? Even Usain Bolt will lose a race if he starts 15M further back than the other runners.

2) Our running game was 32% more efficient than the league average last year which was rated as the biggest running game differential from league average since these stats have been compiled dating back 25 years. This year it's ranked 0.3% above average. That's a monumental drop off. Who do we assign blame? Cam Newton averaging 5.2 yards per carry (as opposed to 5.6 last year)? Or could Deangelo Willliams averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry be playing a role here?

3) Our 3rd down conversion percentage has dropped significantly from 40.5% (10th overall) last year to 34% (23rd overall) this year. (and headed downward after this week's numbers get factored in.) Okay, so third down efficiency is of course important as it extends drives. But taken alone it's really just raw data. Perhaps we suck on 3rd down conversions because we are passing more frequently on 1st and 2nd down this year and we often advance the chains on 1st or 2nd down or end up facing 3rd and long. Whereas last year when we had an off the charts effective running game, we faced a lot of 3rd and shorts.

10/8/2012 6:53:00 AM

After digging deeper, it appears our third down conversion percentage drop-off is relatively meaningless. We can evaluate this by checking our DSR (Down success rate) which measures on what percentage of your sets of downs do you end up achieving a first down or touchdown? This year it's 71.9%. Last year it was 72.9%. Pretty statistically insignificant, which makes sense. After all, we already established that we're averaging the same number of yards per drive as last year and our red zone TD percentage is higher than last year. Who cares if we complete passes on 1st down or 3rd down?


The bottom line is this. Cam Newton is the face of the franchise so he will get the blame when things go sour. If you look objectively at the stats, his efficiency stats aren't materially different than last year. The running game has fallen substantially. Is that the fault of the offensive line? The playcalling? A 30 year old running back with over 1,000 career carries? Or the guy handing the ball off?

Additionally, field position has become a real issue for this team. If your defense can't stop anyone from scoring, you will be penalized greatly due to the new kickoff rules which ensure you spend most of the game starting from the 20.

[Edited on October 8, 2012 at 7:01 AM. Reason : a]

10/8/2012 6:53:45 AM

tl;dr

10/8/2012 9:46:40 AM

Maybe defenses were hurt more by the lockout than offenses

Or do multiple quarterbacks throw for 5000 yards every season

Face pwnt

10/8/2012 10:22:06 AM

Still can't fathom how you fuck up that badly

10/8/2012 11:04:15 AM

Quote :

"Still can't fathom how you fuck up that badly"

10/8/2012 11:07:04 AM

Ryan Kalil might be out for the rest of the year, per http://blogs.charlotte.com/panthers/ and some rumblings on twitter.

Go ahead and throw in the towel.

[Edited on October 10, 2012 at 2:20 PM. Reason : it's official now]

10/10/2012 2:00:01 PM

Quote :

" Panthers C Ryan Kalil could be done for the season with a foot injury that's "worse than first thought." "It doesn't look good," coach Ron Rivera said Wednesday. "It's scary. If we do (put him on IR), we'll probably announce something soon." Kalil has gotten off to a shaky start following his third consecutive Pro Bowl appearance last season, but his loss would be catastrophic for a Panthers' run game that's struggled for consistency through five games. Carolina is on bye this week, which means Kalil's status may not be updated until next week. "

[Edited on October 10, 2012 at 2:06 PM. Reason : asdf]

10/10/2012 2:06:15 PM

confirmed. Kalil is now officially out for the rest of the season

also

this "Cam Newton is Vince Young 2.0" narrative needs to stop, asap. so fucking lazy.

10/10/2012 2:22:33 PM

Christ, just tank the season at this point. Fire everyone and start over.

10/10/2012 2:41:06 PM

lots of Lisfranc injuries around the league all of a sudden, isnt this the third in the last week?

Santonio, Cedric Benson and now Kalil

10/10/2012 3:00:46 PM

^ yeah I said that yesterday to someone Wtf is lisfranc injury I don't even remember hearing of one before, but def not three in like 8 days

10/11/2012 6:10:48 PM

it's the new versa sack

10/11/2012 6:22:22 PM

10/13/2012 11:28:17 PM

think we'll beat the spread against the bye?

10/13/2012 11:29:40 PM

^^so tired of that dude. spends more time on facebook than he does beyond the line of scrimmage

10/14/2012 12:03:11 AM

want to disagree but cant

10/14/2012 12:06:01 AM

good read from somebody who knows more about football than anybody on here

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000081558/article/cam-newton-hampered-by-carolina-panthers-offensive-approach

10/17/2012 9:16:27 PM

everyone especially cam haters should read and watch that.

10/18/2012 1:28:10 AM

shit

http://www.catscratchreader.com/2012/10/18/3522336/cowboys-vs-panthers-chris-gamble-and-jon-beason-miss-practice

Quote :

"Asked if IR is a possibility for LB Jon Beason and/or CB Chris Gamble, Ron Rivera said he'll know more on Friday."

10/18/2012 3:15:25 PM

shut it down, let's go home

10/18/2012 3:30:00 PM

good lord, this team is doomed without Gamble.

not that we were a playoff team anyway, but 4-12 type year is looking possible now.


nfldraftcountdown.com is our new team info site

10/18/2012 5:57:25 PM

so do we take the DT from Utah or the DT from Ohio State

or just some random stud from Alabama

10/18/2012 6:14:40 PM

Ive seen that Utah kid twice now and he was mauling people. Especially in the USC game.

10/18/2012 6:57:30 PM

i want the LB from notre dame.

so he can get hurt, like all panthers linebackers.

10/18/2012 7:28:29 PM

Wow, Amerson has really fallen off (and deservedly so). He was mocked as a top-5 pick by that same site IIRC just a few months ago. He's mid-second round now.

And either of those DT's would be huge.

(pun)

10/18/2012 9:53:37 PM

Suck for Luck Star.

10/18/2012 9:58:30 PM

Let's go Panthers!!!

10/21/2012 10:23:34 AM

i actually kinda think we'll beat Dallas today.

NFL is weird like that anytime a team totally hits bottom they go win a game. Especially coming off a bye week.

10/21/2012 10:39:14 AM

Is munnerlin retarded?

10/21/2012 1:09:56 PM

great throw

10/21/2012 1:46:30 PM